As the tick infested vagrants at Zuccotti park prepare to freeze to death in NYC, “The Fly” is roasting marshmallows for fun, whilst tossing 8k’s and 10q’s into the fireplace.
Futures are up and no one gives a fuck about protesters. The managing elite have big plans, all to do with “saving Europe” from a comical, knee slapping, exit from the 1st world.
El Paso caught a bid from Kinder, which should lend to the bullish tone early going.
It’s too early to make predictions, especially since Europe has less than 1 week to save themselves. Having said that, I do not like the jacked upped yields in Italy. That needs to be addressed before I can get bullish again. Until then, I am weighted long, with hedges and 25% cash.
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this euro repatriation bullshit rally will fizzle soon. I say slightly up tomorrow and then uncertainty of G20 meeting in Nov will drag this market down.
This past finace minister meeting of G20 was a wash specially when the rumur of US will intervene with the european mess was ended.
With the holidays coming upon us, are you going to have an AHOY (Asshat of the Year) award, Fly? It just crossed my mind with all that has transpired worldwide this year.
I’ve always been curious, what’s the advantage (if any) to putting on shorts versus just holding more cash when trying to hedge.
In the event of a sharp surprise move lower.
Going to cash doesnt pay anything. If you are betting against the long term positive mean of the market that shows you have an opinion. Long or short….. never cash. Nobody ever got rich being long cash….. you might be relatively better off but that doesn’t mean sht.
Key FX pairs (A/J E/U) don’t agree with futures today. Subject to change, of course, but right now, it is, what it is.
We’re making Rice Krispie Treats with our marshmallows.
WE go higher.
See you at 1260 my friends.
You’re thinking small.
1450 by year end, bitches.
OWS needs to read Hussman from this weekend. He brilliantly lays out the talking points for the movement:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc111010.htm
And if you want the NY Times version, less astute than Hussman, but this one by Kristof–not a writer I trip over, I will admit–is worth a peek:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/16/opinion/sunday/kristof-americas-primal-scream.html?ref=opinion
I believe the key to Monday will be if the banks and financials can sustain any opening pop based on this week’s Barrons cover story.
http://online.barrons.com/home-page
I read the article at Publix grocery store (I don’t buy the mag anymore) while dining on store samples of beef tenderloin,key lime pie, and some Propel water.
I like to read it and eat my collected samples in the wine aisle where I am usually the only one.
Not sure why my wife doesn’t like to go to Publix with me.
I bet the folks handing out the free samples cringe when they see you, lol.
TC..lol..do you take a sample walk about 10 steps and then pivot back for the dipsy double?
Yes.
I have that look like I haven’t been there before and doesn’t that look good.
Always engage them in conversation (keeps them confused) like where can I find this or what are the ingredients again.
And you get twice as much if they are real old folks (way over 47.5) if you joke with them like can I take you home to cook it for me.
I bought TNA at the close to hedge my TZA hedge for my long holdings in case we have a pop.
this market is really screwed up and I am even worse.
I was just reading Tim Knight on Slope and even he admits that, when the market became overly bearish, he did not short enough. And the man is an uber bear. I hardly ever short, but an old friend once wrote, you don’t short strength, you short weakness. I understand folks who starts to short when they think the market has topped, such as the markets being at the top of the range again as they are now, but whose to say we don’t go higher from here or make a shallow pullback andn then continue upward.
you short weakness.. there isn’t any …. yet
oversold rallies ALWAYS overshoot higher than anyone thinks (you know that lol)
Buy the fuck out of TZA, listen to Le Fly; by years end S&P below 1000.
Holding TZA or any 3x inverse will kill you on decay. If you thinking that just go 1x.
Yeah, it really helps to read the fine print about these instruments. The thing that gets a lot of people (and got me with AGQ a while ago) is that the 3x effect is rebalanced DAILY. That doesn’t mean that over a year FAZ will return 3x the inverse performance of XLF, which is what I would have thought at first. In extreme cases it won’t even turn you a profit at all. In my experience trading these things is a lot like options trading: just because you have a bearish outlook doesn’t mean you are gonna load up on $SPX puts and check in at year’s end, without carefully timing the trade. This article describes the rebalancing effect pretty well:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/286027-stay-away-from-leveraged-etfs
If Citibank has better than expected earnings tomorrow morning we end up with a pretty good day!
As I have been saying all weekend, Citi is gonna kill it. We open up 200 and close up 300-350 on the DOW.
LOL FIG.
Not sure what makes that funny. Anyway, no reason to stay out of this market. We are going up every day for a month. Average 100 DOW points a day.
A hundred points a day is no laughing matter… for the shorts.
I’m generally pretty bullish, but nothing like that! Still, we could have the mother of all short squeezes happening soon in a market near you. Lots of cash on the sidelines, lots of short positions that have to be covered.
le fly should get out there and protest .. show those youngsters how it’s done
Not in 1 trillion years would I be caught alive with those vagrants.
Because you my good sir are a fucking coward.
BANNED
good sir/fucking coward. That makes about as much sense as those ‘protesters’ out there.
I’ve already said, IF we melt up this week, I will chop my balls off, walk into Mandalay Bay and toss them on the craps table.. NOT gonna happen..
yes you did say that. And I said get ready to be castrated.
Let’s define melt up then. What does the S&P have to close at on Friday for you to go full-on eunuch?
>1250
F it. 1235
B4 that VTII, where’s your fav. craps tables???
I know where never to return.
Where,all the same, I’ve walked on Mongolian-Vodka-Water and left in cognito to a suite of multi-hair-colored-convention-money hours-au’ pleasure-2 (btw: that shiz t’marked fuckerz).
—
Always interested on new snake eyes environs, THX N AdVance.
Lol. No favorite. But, the WYNN has an amazing floor for sure..
I’ve had TZA since $47. My staying power is of biblical proportion. This bitch will get on her knees this week..
OUCH. hope your TZA shines this week. where’s your stop?
Come on bulls. I’ll sell you IBM at 190 all time high, AAPL at 422 all time high, GOOG at 600, a little FCX (it’s very beaten down, you know), and maybe some GMCR for diversity.
Step right up, Step right up, Admission to the tent is a buck
I hate to tell you this, but TZA will never see $47 again, unless you are talking about after a reverse split.
comeon Fig– you enjoyed telling him that!
LOL, yeah, you are right! Now time for bed and sweet dreams of +200 Dow tomorrow.
I wonder what is going to happen when the EU doesn’t have a very viable solution and it leaks out this week?? LOL They can only blow smoke in the worlds face and up it’s ass for so long until even the imbeciles catch on..
I plan on shorting at S&P 1900 this week… at this rate that should be wednesday
Your parents dropped you on your head 3 to many times..
too
I am sitting here pondering the fate of the Man Group PLC (EMG.L), Did you notice that it as 2009 lows? One of the largest Europe Hedgefunds and it is at this level..just a random thought.
it’s at..not it as..
Very Interesting..has there been a column ever on it?? Or is that the real secretive shit that they don’t want the world knowing about??
Maybe not so random
No article that I saw, I was thinking about why the Eur/USD has been in rally mode and thought about Hedge Fund Redemptions and the need to raise cash after I read Zero’s Repat article. So I pulled up Man Group to see what they are doing..just looked at the chart at Yahoo.
OEW Weekend Recap:
Long Term:
“We continue to count this highly probable bear market as five Major waves down completing Primary wave A at the recent SPX 1075 low. Completed bear markets are not five wave structures so we have no reason to change the count. Primary B wave rallies, however, can last for weeks (maybe this one), months (2001 and 2008), or even a year (1938-1939). We have no way of knowing, ahead of time, how long one might last.
What they do have in common is that they normally retrace 50.0% to 61.8% of the entire previous decline. Since this one is moving quite fast, and we’re expecting a more moderate bear market than 2007-2009, it may conclude in a matter of weeks. Our original projection was for a month to two months, and we will remain with that for now. Once it does conclude we expect bear market low support at one of the three Fibonacci levels posted on the weekly chart.”
Medium Term:
“This week all four major US indices confirmed uptrends, but only four of the nine SPX sectors have confirmed. This uptrend, thus far, appears to be quite selective. While the market has soared 150 SPX points, 14%, in just nine trading days. It has had three pullbacks between 21 and 29 SPX points. Our short term OEW charts have remained positive since around SPX 1130. This suggests this rally is only Major wave A of an expected ABC Primary wave B.
Remember we expected Major wave A to get overbought, Major B oversold, and Major C overbought again. The market is currently starting to get overbought on the daily chart. This suggests Major wave A is likely going to conclude within the OEW 1222 pivot range. After a 150 SPX point rally and another negative divergence on the hourly we believe this is a good possibility. After Major wave A concludes, the market should experience a fairly big pullback for Major B, then rally again to complete Major wave C.
Since this recent rally has been quite strong, we have added another Fibonacci retracement level to the current 50.0% (SPX 1223) and 61.8% (SPX 1258) levels, 70.7% (SPX 1284). We have OEW pivots at 1222, 1261 and 1291. So this additional level also fits the Primary wave B scenario. Should the market rally above this last level then we may have to rethink what exactly is unfolding in this volatile market.”
Short Term:
“This week we received another WROC buy signal coincident with a confirmed uptrend. Some of you will remember the last time that happened. It was in August, only a few days before that uptrend topped at SPX 1231. This does not bode well for this uptrend. The market may rally a few more points but we believe it will remain within the OEW 1222 pivot range. The technicals display a double negative divergence on the hourly chart, plus a weakening MACD. This is usually a prelude to a pullback of some degree. We also observe negative divergences on smaller timeframes as well. Since this rally has been fairly steady with small pullbacks for its length. It has been difficult to count the internal waves with any degree of certainty. A decline below SPX 1200 would suggest a Major wave B pullback is underway. Short term support is at the 1222 pivot, the low 1200s and then the 1187 pivot. Short term resistance is at the low 1230s, then the 1240 and 1261 pivots.”
Told you FIGster.. LOL! “European Union leaders won’t provide the quick ending to the euro-area debt crisis that global policy makers are pushing for at an Oct. 23 summit, Steffen Seibert, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chief spokesman, said at a news briefing in Berlin today. U.S. industrial production may have expanded for a fifth consecutive month in September while data tomorrow may show China’s economy grew more than 9 percent last quarter.
By the end of this week, the sheep will be saying we are back in a bear market..LOL
More hits-“Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) — Royal Philips Electronics NV, the world’s biggest maker of light bulbs, plans to cut 4,500 jobs to revive earnings after quarterly profit fell to the lowest in almost two years and the company predicted no near-term rebound.”
Wells Fargo disappoints, Citibank better than expected but not exceedingly so banks are mixed at best, Lowes closing stores with job cuts, Royal Philipps job cuts and EMI below expectations. Not a good start to the morning. If we can lift from here it would be pretty Bullish!