GET IN THE GUILLOTINE

The Federal Reserve is going to punch you in the face, one way or another. The market is in lift-off mode right here, solidifying my belief this is a net long or all cash tape. Getting short here is too hard, due to policy risk. If you want to short, wait for the crisis to pass and base your picks around the economy. At this stage, everything is whipsawing around, in frantic, panicky, retard mode.

I sold out of all of my TLT position for a small gain and have begun allocating said dollars into AG. I have my reasons, all revolving around the idea that silver stocks outperform during risk on periods and are sheltered during “fuck you, you’re dead” modes. And, with “Operation Twist” right around the corner, I am a seller of treasuries.

I tripled down on my VMW call position and added to common. I am rather emphatic about the prospects of airlines, even though they are hated. The numbers look good. Take a minute to look at them before casting aspersions. God willing, cracks come in and LCC soars.

With regards to WNR: it is now a minority position of mine, less than 5%. I simply could not wait any longer for the stock price to catch up to the fundies. However, I look forward to revisiting the name, down the road.

I am tempted to get long NFLX here. However, the stock is under too much pressure, due to insane headline risk. This saga will be memorialized in college textbooks on how NOT to raise prices and fuck up your company in the process. It is unbelievable how much damage was afflicted to this company because of intervention. NFLX reminds me of the US government, always meddling with customers (tax payers). Sometimes you just have to let things flow, especially if the model isn’t broken. I am not sure who benefits from a wounded NFLX, aside from short sellers. But, these sort of blackswan drops rarely portend something big. Everyone thought BP was going to zero when they fucked up the GOM. Yet, the stock was on sale during the crisis and advantageous longs benefitted greatly from buying the blood. Without a doubt, buying the NFLX blood will reward people handsomely. The only question is: when? If I were to buy, I’d implement a buy program, acquiring shares every 5% down, starting with a 50% position now.