Ahead of Jackson Hole (August), fellow fucktards from the internets, are you man enough to sell short here? The debt cloud is thick and there seems to be no hope for Greece, Portugal or Ireland. After they fall, Spain, Italy and the entirety of South America will be next. The effect on equity markets will be catastrophic, which will lead to a tightening of credit that will squeeze corporations and American municipalities.
If I know this, all of the asshats at the IMF and World Bank do too, no?
In my estimation, the only thing that truly derails this market is GDP growth. The cards are definitely stacked against the bull camp. The economy is not weak, per se. I realize many unskilled idiots are without proper employment. Then again, that’s why they are unskilled. If you want to earn a decent living in this country, bring your fucking A game or go home crying on your food stamps debit card. Western economies will still grow by 2% in 2011, despite high unemployment and a fucked up real estate situation. If you look at the Dow 30 components’ forward multiples, they are all low double digits, some high single digits. Understand, this is incredibly cheap, on a historical basis. It’s really, really hard for me to be bearish here, based on the fundies.
Based on momentum, I do not like the recent action in commodities. Over the past three months, most commodities, sans sugar, have been poleaxed. We keep ebbing between hyper inflation and severe deflation. It’s totally and unequivocally retarded the way investors are placing macro-bets. One week bonds dive, the next soar. Sooner or later, the market is going to have to pick a theme. It’s either the Western economies print more to get out of their mess, or accept austerity and sovereign failure, which in turn will lead to currency failure, to some degree.
The choice is pretty simple, when approaching this with logic and without idealism.
What are you going to do?
In other newz, it’s Woodshedder’s 1000th post!
I will stick to deer in headlights with heavy cashz
I’m going to move to Nicaragua with nothing but a hooker, a turtle and lots of pancake mix. Then hope for the best.
F-ing Classic! I do love me some pancakes uhuh
Run for the Hills !!!!!!!! Lol
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7ToNJHgp-w
Fly,
What’s your direction on WNR this week? Accumulating more or holding steady?
buying more WNR because that’s what I do.
I’m hedging, nothing spectacular.
I’m trying to show constraint in the politics department as I have recently been burning up the boiler room.
On the other hand, I have a Q for Dr. Fly: might it be a slight mental disorder, or at least morally wrong, to have a habit of shorting retail companies (e.g. HD, BBY, JACK, RRGB, inter alia), then, feeling compelled to immediately walk out of their enterprise with a new gadget, appliance or enjoy a heart attack gorge-fest?
Long dollar continues to be the best way to play the current macro fundamentals.
1/2 cash, 1/2 treasuries…
In the short-term there is very little to get excited about on the long side. As the economy continues sucking wind going into the August meeting, there will be much anticipation of another QE-like announcement which will put a floor under the markets somewhere above where they would probably otherwise trade. If the announcement fails to materialize, look out below. It could even become a “sell the news” type event unless the size and scope of the announcement is truly staggering (on the order of a trillion dollars). Each hit has to be bigger than the previous one to get the same shock and awe effect. A confounding factor is the 2012 presidential election. Will Bernanke be able to pull off another round of money printing without igniting a political shit storm? Whatever happens, I will try to be flat when that meeting draws close.
It’s either the Western economies print more to get out of their mess, or accept austerity and sovereign failure, which in turn will lead to currency failure,
Let’s have both. Printing now, failure later. After all, this is America.
you people realize how crazy you sound, no? Just last month all of you were dollar bearish/treasury short.
I wonder what you will say next month?
Not me. I was the only person, all by myself, that was cheering for My little US dollar after that Great NFP number two months ago. Once I saw that I knew that the Clam, who has been my great enemy in my analysis, was going down. Core Inflation data lags so it should rise in the next few months. Clam has no power over the Nymph now. My little USD is trying to take out 76.00 tonight…go for it little on. Also, off topic, The first episode of True Blood went sooooo fast tonight, god I missed it.
Rummaging for value amid the wreckage.
Time to pack up the kids and wife and head to the Catskill’s for a couple of weeks and maybe catch a Henny Youngman / Shecky Greene show. No sense in participating in the upcoming murder-fest when you can be spending quality time with the family…
Go hang with Cronkite. He ventures up there.
Sad to say Colonel, but Henny’s dead.
I’m going to flip my IBankCoin! Heads I buy, Tails I short! Indeud!!!
bullish or bearish? http://twtpoll.com/3t37u0
Next time post a timeframe. Between 1hr and 10 years there will probably be time frames when stocks are higher… As well as lower
You’re on crack man. Latin america has the cleanest balance sheet compared to US and Europe. But whatever, i’m just throwing a bone out there.
hahahaha. Latin America will fold like a cheap suit when Western economies fall offline. PUHLEEZE.
Perhaps more importantly, Latin America has been through this drill and seen it unfold in recent memory. They also have banana trees and goats in every fricken yard because they don’t trust their gov much. Europe and US? Not so much.
hmmm, I know people down there and they’re not fucking goats in the their yards. You watch too much tv.
Dow is down about 7.3% from the 52 week high!
S&P is down about 7.4% from the 52 week high!
Nasdaq is down about 8.1% from the 52 week high!
Not even really that bad!
I think some stocks are probably worth taking a position here, particularily silver and oil.
I’m with Fly!
I like EXK, WNR, CVI and will probably add to them if they go any lower on Monday!
Are you saying I’m a Cock-Gobbler!
You stated yourself you would take massive losses before you would capitulate. Prepare for the inevitable. Do your really believe the economy is better now than 3 years ago?
Best short is UAL. That pos will be under $6-7 in 2-3 years gain.
Viva Chavez!
The Revolution WILL be Televised!
I would short individual names here not the indexes. Have my eyes on Pulte and Capitol One as short candidates. I agree the world dominator type stocks are cheap but I think they will get cheaper without the Fed printing.
Without daily POMO injections parts of the market are going to get slaughtered. Corporate bonds and high yield investments are going to get killed in the shorter term because the liquidity thats been pumped into them is going to be needed to replace the Fed in the bond market.
The whole world changes on the 30th. The easy money will be on the short side in certian areas: Financials, Home builders, and high yield debt instruments that are backed by worthless low graded bonds.
You people root for your on demise.
They really do. A bunch of zerohedgers they are. THIS IS iBANKCOIN YOU FUCKING FAGGOTS. Get the fuck out of here with that shit.
Greece is irrelevant, moral hazard is. Who knows when. I certainly do not. Play the game while you can but rest assured it will end in tragedy.
All aboard!!!
Fly,
agreed that they will print – just not yet
however, from a political perspective it does not seem to be a popular choice at the moment in the US.
Do you not think the Benrnak needs to let the market soften some more, say SP 1000, then he will be allowed to release the QE hounds? that will provide a decent correction and put the fear back into the politicos that are presently oppesed to any form of QE.
Printing again will be an ominous signal.
agreed, but it will need to be done BB has givrn mkt some room with the ramp up
how about the article in the link above? They will not be able to fund the stock market rally any higher… So they stop fueling the rally to create the flight to safety into treasuries while Greece/Spain/etc collapses which will increase that effect. Then they can start QE3 and buy stocks, and THEN they can keep the spazztastic cycle going.
It seems the moron magnet has been running around here lately. Most of the gentlemen and gentlewomen of iBankCoin are banking coin and hanging out in the higher rent districts of this fine enterprise.
I have the balls and I will be shorting into this weak-looking strength this morning. I will not be stubborn and let myself get slaughtered should we start to make a “real” move higher. With that said, I intend to short any strong move higher all week ahead of the jobs report. It would take something extremely compelling for me to play the long side right now.
When the US goes as broke as Greece and China wants the politards to do austerity measures will the revolution be televised? I expect all of our major cities to burn to the ground the first day that welfare checks are late or reduced. LONG GOLD.