Wow, that bear hunt did not go well. This morning I thought I’d be eating bear face for lunch. Instead, here I am eating another slice of humble pie. I’m barely up and this reflex rally is a fucking joke. There is NOTHING redeeming about this tape, whatsoever.
Oil is getting poleaxed and tech is in the dumps. I feel like I am being boiled slow. My losses are not horrific, yet they are piling up. I don’t want to sell everything, due to fears of missing a sharp reflex rally. I don’t want to short anything, for the same reasons. In other words, I am being boiled slow. I can see the market dumping out 5% in a day, finally forcing me to sell. On the other hand, I can also see a monster 5% rally, healing most of my wounds.
The opportunities are always the greatest when the risk is highest.
Bottom line: I am betting against a black swan type of event, since that is the higher probability trade. It is a shitty trade, but the only one available to me at the moment.
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Yes slow boiled like an unwitting frog…i have felt like that for a couple of weeks.
I’m taking the high-beta option: short Russell 2k.
I think we go back and test or break yesterdays lows and then rocket higher a quick 7%.
Thanks! Let me write that down!
… and before long it it’ll be september and the black swan will yet again have failed to materialize. After all, when did a swan ever materialize that everyone saw coming?
happens a lot, there are people that thought it was obvious that real estate was in a bubble and would decline, or that oil was in a bubble, but they failed to get the timing right… And technically, it’s not a black swan from the people who see it coming… (Thanksgiving is a blackswan for the turkey, but not the butcher).
However when it comes to the market, seeing a black swan AND getting the timing right is another thing.
I think that while many see the black swan coming, they severely misjudge it’s size and scope.
Yes, save those black swans for another day. Instead, I’m lighting novena candles for CANES OF DEATH.
I’m uncertain what that means, but I like it.
Fly, what if we just go sideways and grind. No great bounce, ho horrific fall. Seems like you are only looking at 2 scenarios.
PS When does WNR go to 20? i keed i keed
RIM Getting rimmed. Check out these commments in the link, they’re are hillarious.
http://isitnormal.com/story/rim-job-2315/
I wouldn’t do anything with the market until next week tuesday.
The internets is a weird place.
I’m grateful I have a day job, so I’m not depending on the market for income. Just holding some TNA, waiting for the bounce – if it happens tomorrow, great, if next week, great, if next month, great, but I’m soooo happy I don’t have to depend on making the coin in the short term here and now – this is one hard market to read/do well in…
Como no tres de QE?? Por que?
Everbodyo can fucko themselveso.
I am trying to think of any particular day, week, or month that has had a material impact on my long term wealth.
Nothing comes to mind. Black Monday, 1987 was the worst single shock, having only been investing for a few years I was not emotionally prepared for such sudden disaster. That toughened me up. My rules are simple. Avoid permanent loss of capital. Volatility is opportunity. Tune out noise.
That about sums it up!
Holding on to losers often creates bigger losers.
Oh yeah… Cash is a position.
Shorted into the pop this morning, hoping for a weak close and absolute bloodbath on Monday…if we pop again as a result of some ridiculous bailout package, I will short more.
Everybody talks about probabilities telling us that this market should go higher…I would argue that right now the best risk/reward setup is short. If we break we’re going to break hard…and if it’s going to happen, it’s going to be now (or very very soon). Also, it doesn’t have to last long, just long enough to cover.
An S&P PE of 13 with every single developed economy in an unprecedented slowdown is absurd, stocks are expensive. We need another round of easing if we’re going to see multiple expansion from here.
easing did not work and will not work …
Shiller agrees.
http://www.multpl.com/
Note- the link is to the PE10 not ttm pe.
u can say that again,,,
This is the time to buy Bear-Shitters!
Bear hunt is back on. Bears get their heads ripped off into the close.
2001 had 8 weeks of down days… if we fall into the end of the day, we hit #7!!
beware of greeks bearing gifts (bear)
same thing last week.
DONT BUY ON FRIDAY
it worked once, but then it stopped working