Right now, complacency is still high, despite dire warnings of Greek default. Investors, like Pavlov, have been trained to buy dips. So, as of right now, no one is taking this sell off seriously. However, should the ECB continue the path of ignorance, Greece will default and the floor will drop out of the market. But we all know that will not happen, since the world is all about success without failure. The likely scenario is another bailout and a melt your face off rally.
The trillion dollar question is: when?
This whole liquidation process will snow ball, the longer this issue lingers. Eventually, everything will become a “source of funds” as hedge fund managers get blown the fuck out amidst egregious margin calls. Stocks will fall so fast, down to absurd valuations, it will scare you into Sunday school again.
Despite today’s stiff sell off, there are safe havens, especially in the precious metals space, since investors sense fiat currencies are on the way out. However, before you get all “Jakegint” over there, buying up silver like a werewolf on heroin, consider the fact that the trade in precious metals is very crowded, on a global scale. Should equities continue to sell off, there will be a race for the exits, funnel style.
With my money, I am not buying yet. I will keep 50% of my assets in TLT and cash and wait for the high probability trade. As of right now, buying into this market is too risky. Granted, there are benefits for taking on risk, providing things go your way. However, for me, at this moment in time, I am not in a position to make mistakes, so I will tread carefully.
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A bird in hand is worth two in the bush.
It appears that “Portnoy’s Complaint” was, in fact, hemorrhoids.
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Give us some guidance on WNR. It has topped out in the low 16’s for 4 days in a row. Do you think it breaks out or breaks down?
higher
Doesn’t matter. You lose by assuming wealth will fulfill your deepest animal desires.
Now can Fly be “50% cash and long TLT” when a month ago he was leveraged on margin 20 to 1 in WNR and silver?
managed accounts vs. personal account. I bet you dont even have any managed accounts you hater.
personal acct dipshit. i am still leveraged there
The kids never listen…
Down market days can and have coincided with up precious metals days. It’s not a crowded trade; in the 1980 spike up, the percentage of investment in gold and silver was near 10%. Today it’s less than 1%. It’s a recognition and acceptance of the fact that no one can mess with your bar of silver through inflation. People are buying meteorites for the same reason. I don’t think silver or meteorites are a crowded trade yet because official inflation numbers are still low single digit for most countries. Thanks for the non-rap today.
it’s crowded on a monumental scale
Faith in US fiscal responsibility is the crowded trade. Uncle Ben and his instant rice will keep currency fears well founded with precious metals being the primary beneficiary.
Crowded? You clearly aren’t applying the PM definition of the term.
Crowded is when your shoeshine boy is talking up options on recovery rights for newly landed meteorites on a square meter of land.
But, I could be wrong. The peak might not hit until you can buy and sell mineral rights to undiscovered planets orbiting around other stars.
Long meteorites.
In size.
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Well I ate garden soil this week trying to call the EUR/CHF bottom. Eh, it’s former Chief Kahn’s fault, all is well, I love M. LeGarde too. I do miss my change exposed to such resistance torture. Anyways, I’ll laugh alone over he’e as JIG presented the ultimate ticker name and underlying: QSURF. PM’s one thing, rare Earth, now there’s a respectable rival.
Crowded? Yeah. JP Morgan has shorted the fuck out of silver. Every crowded penny they have. They have locked themselves in a closet and found Nirvana by way of self-contained circle jerk.
A monumental circle jerk.
Fly, any particular reason you are not getting exposure to solars?
TAN etf is near the lows from 2010, last summer.
In theory, if Europe is bailed out, and crack spreads rise, couldn’t the Solar sector overshoot to the upside from here?
About the only way I see Solar break those summer lows, is if Oil plunges below 80, or nuclear power NLR suddenly gets really popular again.
But, i can’t see either of those 2 things happening. Solar looks set to win no matter what.
Solar requires a lot of silver to manufacture. Natural gas is cheaper.
natural gas engines aren’t being widely manufactured. Not nearly at the pace that electric cars and scooters are being built
I am bullish on natural gas long term. But, it is no replacement for Solar as a supplemental source of power.
A lot of those electric vehicles will be charged by large natural gas generators. I don’t dislike solar. It just can’t economically compete with natty yet. I still haven’t gotten around to puting a deposit down on a Tesla model s, but intend to get one.
Tesla motors made a big error aiming at high end consumers.
The world market needs a tata motors type electric car. Something in the 7 to 8k dollar range. Small , and electric
First manufacturer to do that, could be the next AAPL –in terms of explosive growth.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_BlueStar
This is the closest thing out there. Unless the Afghani lithium hits markets soon, or breakthroughs in ultra-capacitors/batteries happens, then the bluestar is the best realistic option in that direction.
a $7-8 k electric car is not doable with the current technology
The damn battery is $9k alone.
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if someone could just put that in front of congress, and make them see the #’s,by switching all their vehicles to nat gas would be the next beginning. but the stupidity is fucking amazingly awesome.if i told you i could save you a billion dollars a year, why would you not listen.
Because I said so.
Well, yeah, in that sense that solar is no replacement for anything (relatively speaking) and won’t be unless there’s some massive leaping on the technology side.
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Jake, as fantastic as Nuclear is. Where will anyone be able to build new nuke plants?
What new plant owner will be able to afford the huge insurance rates?
Whether or not solar deserves to vault higher here, it likely will. TAN solar etf is up 2.3% in after hours trading now.
In terms of technicals and fundamentals, i think there is an excellent chance today was the solar stock bottom for 2011. All dips are a buy, in that sector, from this point.
In a sane world, we’d focus on using nuclear and natural gas. But, we are living in global idiocracy right now. So, solar will win, even though it does not deserve to.
Central bankers fuck nuclear in the ass. It will never be big.
except in France & china?
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Solar? When your mother and father die of starvation in a sustainable Agenda 21 death camp, maybe we’ll see a little trickle of Rockefeller nuggetry sliding toward a couple of ounces of silver.
Until then, coal is what Jesus ate at the Last Supper.
Vote my comment down small plebs!
Vote down you small plebs!
you are gay. the gayest there is.
Glad you are an expert on the degrees of gayness. If you had a newsletter, I’d be sure to join and tell all my gay friends.
LOL Indeud! This really is fun. I wonder how long it will last?
Until we are hacked by some Slavic baddie again.
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Can I nail both your tiny a-holes? You talk delicate words like pretty fragile birds. Makes me hunger for Cornish game hen.
VXX for the win? VZZ?
My guess and that is all this is any more just betting not investing and interventions not markets:
A currency war is going on and it would be great to place an American as head of the IMF – for that to happen the USD would have to be perceived as strong and safe as it will need to bail out countries so that the next US Griswold family can have just as much fun on their next European Vacation.
I am going for the families getting together for a three day weekend play, and it goes a little something like this – Commander in Chief out of the country following a major disaster (Joplin) and stocks are dropping. We would not want families getting together over the three day holiday to discuss the economy and their 401Ks both dropping while others party by throwing back the pints of Guinness. If all politics are local, it does not get more political than your backyard BBQ.
POMO operations are strong this week and I think after the opening drop tomorrow after it hits a bottom at around 11, some SPY call options may be in order as we rally into the weekend. With volumes down, the market makers are making their bread off of volatility which they help create and profit from. PPT is looking like it might be a little oversold.
The only caveat is the pre-1967 borders speech and if powerful bankers with an interest in that topic might want to throw their opinion into the financial markets. Also escalation with Pakistan and China giving an ultimatum increases hostilities, but these have been wild cards for some time.
I actually think you have a good point. But I had to vote this down. Since comment voting is new here, ya know how it goes. No offense to what you posted.
….”buying up silver like a werewolf on heroin…”
Lol….if werewolves were smart, they would corner the silver market in order to ensure their survival, indeud.
That was Bunker Hunt’s real reason for the attempt.
Actually, it was his grandson who was a lycanthrope. His actions were purely altruistic.
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Learn to suck central banker cock already. All wealth is theirs. They fucking won. If we go to another planet, they will win that fucker too. Only way out is your own personal death and that’s not even guaranteed, because those sick fucks probably rigged that shit too.
They built the system, they fucking got you to play within it and believe in it, they rigged it to all hell, they bought the MSM to make you think otherwise, and they continue to slide their little pricks into your crevices with every breath you take.
This is their version of Paradise. A frog smeared against a concrete basement wall has nicer dreams than they.
@fly..we rather here about your personal account than managed..balls to the wall wnr and zsl! Atleast I would
Voted down.. “Balls to the Wall.” Man that is one OLD saying. Boo!
and he spelled hear “here” … (
One vote up for a fellow Pelican, but you shold clean up your spellin’ [sic] (or misspell according to the Official IBC Dictionary and annotate accordingly, i.e. [sic])
fucking vote wars? you remember what happen to stockpickr, dontch ya. oh wait a minute, that dude turned into an eccentric….
You used “Profanity” so I felt obligated to give you a vote up even though I have no clue what you are talking about.
be glad that you dont know.
I’m thinking we’ll be vacationing in Austria this Christmas as the dollar screams above 100.
100 what?
Lira?
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“scare you into Sunday school” “a werewolf on heroin” pretty fucking funny I would say
Can we change the upvotes and downvotes to warm fuzzies and cold pricklies?
“My chart’s OK, your chart’s fucked!”
– Stocks People Play
If you find you are getting too many positive votes, you are probably on the side of the majority
To quote mark twain-
““Whenever You Find Yourself On The Side Of The Majority, It Is Time To Pause And Reflect.”
While Chinese Roulette (pinless fraud-filled hand grenades) is a dangerous game, I’m liking DATE’s sleeper action. I’m long average price $12.60…
Uncle Fly. Please thank Juan,Carlos, and your other illegal gardeners for me. They agreed to help put up the tent on your lawn for my Bar Mitzvah. I heard Dad telling Mom that they need o review your Bar Mitzvah speech for bad swear words, so you may want to write a second speech and give the clean version to my parents. I can’t wait because I will be a man soon and hopefully my WNR will soon reflect this adulthood. Then maybe Sarah Rabinowitz from my AP Physics class will discuss Archimedes principle with me.
Will she put you in the bathtub and see if your balls float?
Balls? No way this fuckin kid’s got balls. Maybe a scrotal sac but definitely no balls.
I must make a shameless confession, Fly, I plagiarized your phrase, “cock gobler” on another blog. The response was overwhelmingly positive. I did not give you credit.
I think that Bernanke will go though the motions of not overtly extending QE in June. Covertly, he may do something different, but, if he does, we will not find out about it until months later. Ben will let the lack of stimulus drive up the USD and push down commodities and stocks. Then, a few months later, when the media shills start calling for QE3, Ben will pretend to reluctantly acquiesce and create for his employers the money out of thin air that they just can’t get enough of.
In the meantime, Ben will hold the Fed Funds rate at its present inflation adjusted zero percent, rate and give his bankster buddies a sweet spread on their carry trade, as the market induced, higher yields on longer end Treasuries give the banksters their sweet spreads. Ultimately, of course, the dollar will resume its downward spiral. But, before it does, we non-cronies will have a commodity and commodity currency buying window.
then may we call you”goble nob” the cock gobler.
TECD for the rebound.
and Jake, what are your thoughts on Aluminumumum right this moment in time?
GosuCatcheJakerbattleswerethebest
Voting on posts is so high school, remember?:
http://sports.gunaxin.com/wp-content/gallery/high-school-cheerleaders/high_school_cheerleader-14.jpg
I cannot abide the thumbs up, thumbs down. IIRC, in Roman Coliseum days the sign for “off with his head” was a sideways thumb……or some such thing. That being the case, thumbs up/thumbs down may not be conveying the true meaning of the thumber to the thumbee.
I would suggest a change in nomenclature and the addition of a third option which would be the equivalent of something like………….meh.
My ever so humble suggestion would be the following comments from strong like/agree to strong dislike/disagree respectively
strong like/agree = No Homo
somewhat like/agree = Semi Homo
totally neutral = Flaccid homo
somewhat dislike/disagree = Gaping Homo
Strong dislike/disagree = Raging Homo
These of course would be accompanied by the appropriate visual symbols or effects.
Remain short this pig. The dollar rally ain’t over yet which means lower stock prices are in our future.
Also remain Short the Euro via EUO until Greece blows up.
Biggs says stocks are going up from here!
Buy on dips!
I’ll give it another 8 -10 weeks yet before things really take off to the upside again. In the meantime we go down a little more. Euro land has some serious crap to sort out yet {like the US doesn’t} which will make the greenback “look” strong comparatively, for a short time. QEIII is inevitable by the end of summer, early fall IMHO.
When Twitter gets clogged lately ,its usually caused by heavy protest chatter in mideast. That often precedes bounces in Oil price
With all the Twitter crashes in the past week, this looks like a positive omen for XLE , WNR , OIH, TAN, OXY , etc
Twitter is “fail whaling” like crazy tonight.
You’re trading based on the number of times Twitter crashes? You’re a fucking idiot.
This is why I pay for the PPT hybrid, baby, just let me know when the selling is about to take a little break 🙂
The rapture call was just early by five months, says Harold Camping.
Go back to church heathens! Oct 21st 2011 is the new date.
(Disclaimer: If you vote this comment thumbs down – you may get left behind)
Rally is back on!
I think you mean Pavlov’s dog, not Pavlov himself.