The drop in the major indices is underway. Whether it will last for one week or one year is not relevant. The purpose of this blog is to tell you how to play it. A great man once said “I’m not selling you anything. I’m telling you everything.”
Lower equities means lower commodities.
SCO, ZSL, ERY and DUST will get the job done.
Also, banks, tech and real estate will get poleaxed. Get some:
FAZ, DRV and TYP
Volatility
TVIX or VXX
Long Treasuries
TLT or TMF
Long Dollars, Short Euro
UUP, EUO
Fuck China
FXP, CZI
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fig
VXX… Really? No leg down. No black swan.
I would rather stay conservatively short the FAZ, ZSL calls (significantly out of the money).
FLY please dont mention FXP. I have terrible nightmares about those bullshit 2x inverse fuck with your head rebalance at end of day, correlated with VIX, etc, instruments of death to your portfolio ETF’s.
If you ask me the way I plan on playing this downturn? ( I know you didnt ask or care)
I plan on letting my money sit, gaining 0.46 monthly interest in my account and going to work making $9.00 an hour until the market decides that its time to work.
Since January this market has been messing with me. You have to immediately by the dips on 200point down days otherwise you missed the boat. Then the Japanese Tsunami brought us a bottom that passed by so quickly you didnt see it coming. The tsunami lasted longer then the stock market bottom.
FIG
A plunge here would be one of the most telegraphed drops in market history.
I don’t see one blog, forum message, or “spray on tan” CNBC analyst who isn’t cautious here.
Market internals have been bearish for weeks. Tons of money is hiding in fear and safety trades:consumer staples, bonds, utilities, health care stocks, and yen.
All major steel stocks, and regional banks are dropping on severely divergent volume. What will keep all the money from safety trades from rotating into FAS and SLX?
All intermediate bear markets outside of exogenous surprises are fairly telegraphed if you know what to look for…particularly when trading currencies.
I don’t know about China being shortable here, I’m actually starting to hunt longs in those indices as tightening may be coming to a close.
By the way,
The Mideast is entering “facebook inferno dance party” mode tonight . So, its hard to see the OIH oil service sector as a good short here.
head fake coming, no lower til June
Mister Fly: Are you planning to take any action on your $WNR position?
prov 11, just sayin, money is paper
Thanks for the heads up Mr. Fly.
Suddenly you’ve become Dr Doom….gonna take the other side until we get a meaningful breakdown in the averages. You cannot ignore the bullish moves in retail stocks, the relentlessness of the Utility Average or select institutional names such as AMGN, PEP, ERTS, AMZN, INTC.
FIT (still)??
Not a fan of SMN or DRR? How come?
If the bubble burst, SPX 536ish is my guess when it will stop…we will see.
DevilDog in sheeps clothing!
ah, brings back memories of the good ole daze of 2008
One helluva wild day coming. At least the charts say so.
greese muckin up germany/france gains, imf blow job cost more than expected!
Commodities prices will come down, short term, as the Fly and Goldman Sachs agree. Goldman Sachs, the power (along with the other PDs) behind the Fed’s throne, can control the strength or weakness of the dollar. When the dollar gains value, commodities lose value. The USD is presently gaining value.
Crude futs looks bullish today