I sold out of some pretty big positions this morning, regardless of price. When I make up my mind, I try to get the best possible price. However, it’s not a deal killer. I don’t mind slippage in exchange for control. In this case, I NEED to have total control of my assets at play here, in order to navigate this market properly. So, I took a staggering 30% loss in BORN, even though I was up on it LAST WEEK. I have the scumbags from Rodman and Renshaw and CCME and CAGC to thank for that. And, I kicked out of OPEN, even though I love the name.
Stocks like OPEN will get eaten alive should this market go down for a period more than 5 days.
With some of the proceeds, I bought nuclear clean-up spec play PESI, VLO and lots more WNR. Keep in mind, crack spreads are down 7% this morning and WNR is flat. I reckon your local asset manager is doing some rotation right now, out of oil exploration into refiners. It’s a no brainer, if you think about it with your dog brain for more than 10 seconds.
Additionally, I sold off some other ancillary positions, bringing my cash position to 60%. It doesn’t get higher than that. I still own some stocks and will buy more, if the price is right. However, I needed to stop the losses now before they became punitive. I can correct a 10% pullback in my portfolios. However, if I let 10% turn into 20% then 30%, I would have dug myself an “idiot box.”
Bottom line: I am now in control, despite my temporary set backs.
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Asset managers are buying retailers right now, believe it or not. The short thesis for retailers is based on high cotton price. However, the Japan disaster is sure to blow the hell out of commodities for a while. Remember one thing: the world 3rd largest demand for commodities is closed to being wiped out right now.
Senor Fly gave up on ARO way too quick.
I agree 100% certain retailers will flourish in 2011, particularly women’s clothing.
Please expalin how high cotton prices are good for retailers? If prices are transfered to consumer rest assure sales volumes and margins will decline.
Voodooriver is correct. Higher input prices (cotton) in an environment where manufacturers can’t pass along those increases to the consumer translate to margin contraction, not expansion.
While there is no doubt that certain retailers look strong technically and are acting as if they want higher (assuming the market holds) the thesis outlined by Dr. Genius is anything but.
Enzo? is that you?
Commodities like lumber, coal, natural gas, steel, concrete, shingles, copper wiring… Me thinky they will be useful very soon to the Isle of Ninja’s.
Did they do a hatchet piece on BORN also or was that just you murdering it on the way out?
You pikers take notice of Mr. Le Fly’s actions. These are actions of a man that is more experienced than I. Live to fight another fucking day. Bravo Mr. Le Fly
I hope the responsibile parties at Rodman Renshaw, CCME and CAGC have their lawns covered in Portajohns!
This kind of an environment is a breeding ground for black swans.
I also have been maintaining high cash levels—currently at a pleasurable 69%.
More like a breeding ground for fearful hysteria.
any opinion on Silver … AG may be a buy
yep.
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AG is a good buy @ 11.80!
Silver and gold arent safe here. With stocks being blown the hell out, asset managers might book profit on those silver and gold miners and rotate into stocks with great valuation right now.
Just the dumb ones.
Like me yesterday.
I had no idea how many stock traders are also nuclear scientists.
Clearly they don’t understand uranium fundamentals. I am in agape disbelief at uranium stocks down 50% in 2 days based on 3 reactors out of 500 (with 58 currently under construction around the world). Even if nuclear gets less popular, the energy balance demands increased nuclear, and sustained current production wherever possible or feasible. There are no hasty options to it’s invaluable energy. Even if fusion power takes the stage.
You were actually one I suspected to be a scientist.
One thing I know is that these are the same people that insisted the oil leak in the gulf would cause mass destruction to the planet.
I’m not saying I know squat about nuclear, but it seems a bit chicken little to me.
Totally is chicken little.
(Degrees in Geology and Engineering with a deep physics background). Good guess. My space nerd avatar might have been a clue too heh?
The Japanese reactor failures will be studied in depth, to say the least. The cooling systems failed because outside power failed. The backup diesel generators came on, but were swamped by the Tsunami. New systems will be designed to withstand those conditions. Existing plants will be retro fitted to be robust in such conditions. It’s an engineering problem that can be solved. I’m thinking, said engineers may be a good play now. Shaw Group?
Candu reactors. This likely wouldn’t have happened if they used Candu back in the day instead of being pushed around by bigger dumber American companies.
You are probably right. Only Canadians could figure out how to run a nuclear power plant without cooling systems.
It seems obvious now that a tsunami would accompany a major earthquake. Just like the idea that Arabs with boxcutters might hijack airliners and suicide crash them into landmark buildings. Or high pressure could blow out a deep water oil well in the GOM.
As a geologist, yes, I think it is a bad idea to build a nuclear reactor along ANY coastline. Especially one in a very seismically active region. If you think a 30 foot wave was big, wait until a rock drops in the ocean somewhere. It’s balancing probability against utility. Where nuclear fallout is concerned, I suggest every nuclear reactor should too safe. Deep underground if it must be on a coastline but preferably above 1000 feet elevation. It IS obvious. Arabs with boxcutters is a whole different discussion. Just like everyone will be “surprised” when the next Arkstorm hits California, or when the next big earthquake hits Vancouver Island, or when the Volcano they live next to erupts, or the stream they built their house next to on a nice fertile floodplain gets washed away, or when the beautiful slope they built for a mountain view above Cochrane slumps down, or when continental glaciers advance in the next Milankovitch supercycle in about 1000 years. Respect the geological record.
Canada’s reactors might be safer, but the nuclear waste is parked in train cars just up the hill from Lake Superior instead of buried in the Canadian sheild. The US does similar things with theirs. Everyone will “surprised” when something bad happens to it.
Harry Reid keeping the US nuclear waste out of Nevada in Yucca Mtn, where it could be most safely kept.
One of my friends is a structural geologist who was in charge of geological hazard assessment for that project. They already spent 4 billion dollars studying the issue, but the fact is, the ground water at Yucca mountain is already radioactive. Not putting it there, and charging a ton of $ for storing it is full retard for a radioactive state that depends on gamblers for their expenditures.
But now everyone will build safer. Might see some thorium reactors and generation III or IV as well.
e-mail I got last night from a friend who is an operating engineer at a US nuke plant.
“Things are getting worse – and at least 3 of the reactors are done for life – and have partial metldowns; but, containment is holding (as of last reports) so there will not be anything approaching Chernobyl. The question is can they save the other 4 (and those have not yet hit the news).
A key item is that the plants were designed for either 7.9 or 8.2 earthquake and they got hit with a 8.9 The difference between 7.9 and 8.9 is a factor of 10 (its a logarithmic scale).
Overall I’d say the plants have stood up well given what they were hit with.
As far as the US reactors. We have about 30 similar reactors here (GE Boiling Water Reactors – BWR) – and many with the same vintage containment. Key is that very few of these are on an ocean where they could be hit with a tsunami an hour after the earthquake (and it was the tsunami that took out the diesel generators).
The other 70+ reactors are Pressurized Water Reactors – and I believe that design is inherently more capable of dealing with a total loss of power than a BWR.
The new Generation III reactors (for example the AP-1000 which will start construction later this year in the US) are designed to handle a total loss of power – and have enough passive cooling to prevent a meltdown.”
Just a FYI ……..
When they put the seawater in they trashed the reactors, that much was known. But it was done to get all available cooling in there.
Apparently a fourth unit is in trouble now. Radiation levels are now high enough to prevent emergency workers from performing their tasks.
No greater nobility than taking one for the team. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AAKPSIpdpo
Yes, and not very good ones.
Like the man says, “I NEED to have total control of my assets at play here”. That is amazingly contiguous with Minerva’s favorite Sicilian advisory, “Potere è meglio di fottere”. That being said, stay in the company of wise ones.
<> Would that be the powerful fucks?
I am looking at some of the major construction-related plays today. Prices are discounted somewhat, yes, but rebuilding will have to start sooner or later.
just remember more POMO
And in size.
You may have sold too early!
Looks like things are coming back!
The Japanese will need a fuck of a lot of wood. There was quite a spike in timber/lumber prices after the quake in Chile last year.
They use bamboo and whale bones for construction, everybody knows that.
British Columbia has plenty of lumber that they will be glad to sell to them.
Thanks for the WNR tip Mr. Fly – bot some yesterday….
Take a look at TSO as well.
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And ES
and LTBR
Big Ben better show up with another keg and some hookers for the 2:15 party, or people might not like him anymore.
Bernanke shows up empty-handed…would it have killed him to bring a six-pack?
you totally fucked that one up kid… CCME calling other blog liars… guess Chinese fuckers aren’t that honest ? no?
When the Fly appears to be losing steadily, it is a prelude to big wins!!!
Can anyone loan me 5 dollars?
seriously I am broke
Such a HUGE HUGE HUGE Short Interest in the USD vs Yen and Swissy…I wonder if the Clam will continue to have his magic?
Today:
WNR up 0.56%
TSL up 9.12%
UNG up 1.34%
I like the idea of buying alt-reactor plays like LTBR, but only the idea. A highly speculative approach, not for me.
Rebuilding?…wood..steel…concrete..?…seriously!?!
Try a fiberglass home built on a styrofoam shell…water tight complete with GPS lithium power cells and a Coast Guard approved “ship to shore”
Big solar action. Did I miss the news that solar is now efficient enough to power entire cities, NYC, Chicago, LA, Miami, downtown New Smyrna Beach? Will a wind farm in Kansas power the Steelers stadium? Is there a pending derivative play in silicon? I mean for panels not boobs.
Do you also wish your kids popped outta the womb one day, then turned 18 the next day?
No, not for a second. But, I could have done without the light bars flashing on police cars in my driveway and a few other interruptions known to many teen miscreants. Again but, the football and lacrosse championships more than made up for those incidents.
Fuck PESI
it is gonna be my Other FTK fiasco.
why the hell do i follow the Fly???/
now I am down 7%
Probably should have sold while you were up you jerk off. Was at a high of 1.82 today
How about out of control!
You sold most of your stocks way too early to buy those losers!
NEVER give your opinion to Le Fly..
you can bitch at him though… he gets a kick out of plebs complaining.
I’m not complaining! I really don’t give a fuck!
BORN miraculously recovers!
Oh, I forgot you sold that!
I’m such a nummy!
I’m glad I didn’t panic and sell mine.
A question to a most generous fly, or anyone else that knows the answer, how do you check spreads for WNR or any other refiner?
I may have missed out on the afternoon “rally,” but I also lived to see another day. This was a capital preservation day. There will be buying opportunities aplenty in the near future.
As to PESI, is this a five-day play? It seems like it’s starting to lose some steam now that people are finding out that it likely won’t get any action in the Japan clean up efforts. I’m not sure that I wan’t cash tied up in this for very long… I was playing it for a five-day rip like ROYL or SD
FWIW, PESI services the US Department of Energy and the US Department of Defense, as well as commercial companies and public utilities. Factoring available resources, I would expect the likelihood of this company to be utilized in Japan to be probable.
Regardless of how much more inefficient, we should be using solar thermal. ALL of our efforts should be towards switching over to sustainable energy. Only problem is, the world is run by the same people who want to milk every dollar out of dirty energy, and they are the same people who were the chief financiers of the schools that gave you your diplomas.
Those in the medical /pharmaceutical industry take note: this applies to you too.
I know, you paid a lot for that degree, and you probably know a bunch of assorted facts about your specific field that make you sound right in any social circumstance, but these institutions don’t teach you how to think outside the very neat box that takes our energy independence, and health independence away from us, as it sticks it’s greedy blood funnel into our neck.
VAWT technology, and solar thermal could easily power this nation many times over. Ever drive across this country in winter? It’s windy enough through Wyoming, Nebraska, Iowa, illinois, to generate enough power for the year, no less the amount needed to offset the cloudy months.
If this is not financially within our limits, maybe we need a new motivation to do things. Our financial dependence on established medicine and energy is what keeps us from making breakthroughs in both fields. In my opinion, we could have cheaper AND cleaner energy. You must first remove the lobbies of both industries.
Oh, and Fly, my dog sings to Mozart, (in tune, and time) and hangs out with cats.