I had a mixed day with losses in ARO/BORN and gains in OPEN, WNR, APC and MAS. It’s pretty heart wrenching to see the developments in Japan. I just read that radiation levels are 8x normal near one of their nuke plants. That has to suck.
It looks like The PPT nailed the ZSL trade again, as silver bottomed this morning, then took prisoners for the rest of the day. With mid-east tensions at a feverish pitch, Japan dealing with a natural disaster and chinese burrito stocks halting indefinitely, my appetite for risk waned throughout the day. I am content with my new position in WNR. However, I didn’t feel enthusiastic about today’s move. It felt like a bounce, nothing more.
Nevertheless, going into the weekend, I’m up about 10% for the year, with a cash position of around 5%.
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Rumors swirling like a Japanese whirlpool that CCME could be a M/A target. If this is true we could see the whole burrito sector blow sky high as the lack of M/A has been a huge reason not to participate.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=tm&bn=101061&tid=84739&mid=84739&tof=8&frt=2
“Folks:
We’ve been working diligently for the past 5 hours attempting to learn any news on the Street in Beijing about the “Halt” … and then gain some verifiable, corroborated source(s) on these “views” …. what we did discover (and corroborated) was that two independent sources stated that CCME Sr. Mgmt. received a “size-limited” (not a full acquisition) bid proposal to acquire a controlling position in CCME. The proposal was received late in the day on Friday (in Beijing) and Mgmt. was attempting to quickly debrief the Directors on the proposal receipt. There is still one Director who could not be debriefed and with those that were debriefed there were a series of clarification questions assembled. These “clarification requests” are being forwarded to the proposing Party. Too much time was passing late last night … so at the end of the evening Mgmt., thru consultation with the Firm’s new US-based Securities Law Firm requested the NASD to halt trading (T1 Request). We did though receive contradictory information from the Independent Parties — one was of the view Mgmt. was involved as participating in the Proposal …. but the other Independent Party denied this “view” and stated Mgmt. has had no involvement in the current Proposal being offered.
That is the extent of our knowledge at the moment — however, given the timing / proximity of this event with next week’s Quarterly/Annual release … has made Mgmt. very nervous — and thus, they are following the advice and Counsel of a very reputable Legal Counsel in the Firms NYC office.
Hope this helps clarify some of the speculation as we move into the weekend. At his point we have our positions assembled and are not acting upon any of the information set forth today, Friday.”
http://www.theflyonthewall.com/permalinks/entry.php/CCMEid1390722/CCME-Rumor-China-MediaExpress-moves-up-on-speculation-of-a-potential-investment
CFO bought 100k shares in Dec.
http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=117543
“Rumor: China MediaExpress moves up on speculation of a potential investment
Shares of China MediaExpress are moving higher on speculation a large Chinese ad company is making an investment in the company.”
Yahoo message boards are a great source.
These are rumors, the CFO buying 100k is not.
…and there was the rumor on theflyonthewall.com.
Who knows what the news is, we’ll know soon enough!
Just seen the photos from Japan. Nothing to add, everyone feels the same. Horrible.
However, we’re pragmatic cold-blooded wave-riders here, and as such, my second thought was that this disaster might become a long-needed catalyst for Japan’s internal demand. The damage is enormous, and will be paid for by insurers’ money. I don’t have the figures, but this demand shock could positively affect their deflation, if it is big enough. Government will be able to justify issuing more yen, lower FX rate and generate higher activity, thus driving GDP higher.
As for the refineries: just noticed how many cars were wrecked, and the same with their highways. Also people are stranded, gathered in big public locations, and thus transportation needs are limited. So I’m not so sure that demand for gasoline will actually be as high as it is hoped for via recent action in refineries’ stocks. Probably not short-term.
here fly http://www.winebid.com/Item/3480880
David Jones called the bounce yesterday afternoon…kudos to him.
FUCK YOU I CALLED THE BOUNCE
Re: CCME takeover rumor…. that reminds me of when Bre-X was halted and we were all high fiving each other expecting a takeover by Freeport. Then the headline came out: “Freeport reports insignificant gold at Busang”.
Who halted Bre-X? In the case of CCME the company halted trading.
Yeah, that was 16 years ago so I don’t remember, but probably Bre-X, once they found out the result of the due diligence. And now that I remember, there already was a bogus takeover bid by Freeport, that’s why they were doing the due dili. I think we expected a counter bid by Barrick.
If fraud is announced Global Hunter Securities is in deep doo doo.
http://blog.mrnicegeek.com/2011/02/01/global-hunter-securities-on-ccme-02012011/
I recall when the head geologist for Bre-X jumped out of the helicopter in Indonesia (I think).
Kind of a warning.
Here’s the Bre-X helicopter incident:
http://www.cbc.ca/fp/story/2010/03/12/2675139.html
Here’s the letter (old) from the CEO of CCME addressing fraud.
http://www.ccme.tv/eng/ir/ceo_letter.pdf
I guess senility hasn’t set in for me yet.
Actually, I remember where I was when I heard about the jump (driving range at Faldo’s in Orlando) and thinking how strange it was.
I owned a bunch of ECO (Echo Bay Mines at the time).
The whole Bre-X story would be a good movie-better than the Wall Street movies with M. Douglas.
WNR #WINNING
Coincidence?
Swedish House Mafia…very nice!
-TheBigSwede
OK, we have had LME Copper top in Feb, and even with that dead cat bounce on Friday it is trending down. Market thinks that Japan Quake is good for commodities…yet, China said no way to inflation. I have NO idea how the asian market will move on Monday…China still has that RRR wild card that they have been wanting to play for the last few weeks, imho if China has panic buying of commodities over the belief of shortages, they will play that card asap.
Sorry TN – my amateur commodities analysis says copper starts moving higher after a large part of Japan’s infrastructure went missing the other day.
Bomber, That’s what the Keynesisn Guys and Larry Summers would think too. But, Japan doesn’t have crazy money to rebuild and China Govt should be having the balls to stop inflation after seeing what happened over at Egypt with their Inflation. Japan is like the person that took a 3rd on their house and will get some money to rebuild from Insurance, yet not enough to really benefit them. So many are looking to 1995 for direction, Yen rallied, USD pulled back, US equities did good. But this is not 1995, China is now a MAJOR player and one of their key trading partners got smashed down…this is going to be interesting.
Nikkei is going to open it appears..will be very interesting.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-12/europe-boosts-bailout-fund-with-firewall-bond-purchases-eases-greek-aid.html
Alvari…I agree with Jamie, the devil is in the details. http://www.forexlive.com/172727/all/the-devil-is-in-the-details