Last week of the year is very simple. ‘Tis is not the season to build long term portfolios. You may not understand me now, since you are novice as fuck, dumb to all things having to do with proper asset management. But, trust me when I tell you, the first week of January will be high energy and it can decapitate you, if caught leaning the wrong way. I have my hunches, as to what might occur. But, it’s all a guess right now. So, putting this eventuality on the front burner, you have a few things to do.
1. Scalp. Try not to attach yourself to any new name.
2. Got losses? Book them. It makes no sense to hold unrealized losses, especially if you have giant gains like me.
3. Get light.
The reason why I sold half of my MOTR today had nothing to do with stop losses or being “fed up” with the price action. I am stubborn as HIV and do not fold tent easily. It came down to a choice. Was I willing to up the ante on MOTR? My position was down 13% and the stock was stuck in some fucked up downtrend. Typically, I’d double my position, if I really liked the story. Believe me, I really, really like the MOTR story and feel they will blow the doors off earnings in early February. Bottom line: I was unwilling to commit to the stock and NOT book that sweet tax loss. Plus, if I sell now, I can get back in the name, prior to earnings, and avoid wash sale rules.
I allocated about 10% of assets today, lowering my cash to 30%+. In my personal aggressive account (the one you do not believe), I am 220% levered long, in just 6 positions. I am purposely concentrating my assets, very aggressively, in order to take advantage of the “power period” we find ourselves in and it allows me to quickly go to cash, if I so choose. Hypothetically, if the market reverses badly, I can easily sell three positions and allocate said funds into 3x levered, fucked up, Direxion ETF’s, much to my dismay.
The moral of the story: read the fucking post and you will understand what the hidden messages are.
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FIAF!
Everyone is thinking selloff on Jan 3 – so they’ll drop it in the morning, then jam the market higher for 3 days to get all the hedge funds panicked thinking they are behind the competition, then the floor will drop out for the next four weeks as we give back all of the 2010 gains by Feb…just a guess.
I am undecided. The point is to be prepared.
OEW Predictions:
“The market opened at a new uptrend high this morning, pulled back a few points, and then tried to break through the OEW 1261 pivot again. Once the market closes above this pivot, and clear[s] its range, there is not much resistance until the SPX hits the 1291 pivot. The short term OEW charts remain positive, and Minor wave 3 continues to unfold. The pullbacks for this Intermediate wave five continue to be minor.”
We are approaching the end of Intermediate Wave5 currently in minor wave 3 of five … once we break 1261 we should see 1291 in fairly short order, then see a minor wave4 pullback and close out this move with a final minor wave5 push over 1300 before the correction presents itself …
“When this uptrend ends, projected to be in January near the OEW 1313 pivot, the market will experience a Major wave 2 correction. After that, a rising Major wave 3 of Primary wave III will get underway taking the market to new bull market highs.”
You won’t wanna miss Major Wave3 of Primary Wave3 of a bull market now, would ya?
I believe trends are a crutch for those who fail to comprehend the current state of affairs. Yes it is important to understand the past, but the present always presents itself in an abstracted, fractioned, or otherwise completely different manor.
Technical analysis only works some of the time.
It is important to know, as it is provides insight into what the hedge fund managers are going to do, but it is also why hedge fund managers are behind the independent investor.
that being said, I admittedly rely on trends in areas I do not fully grok.
There is no substitute for knowledge, hard work and balls.
Nothing against TA, but you can fuck up using TA just as easily as picking stocks with your thumb up your ass.
your fucked on motr. pos broke a double bottom 12/1/10.
how does $4 sound?
I’m here to tell you the fly doesnt give a shit, not on behalf of the fly, but the tiny midgets who are telling me they are about to break your face and double up on your bottom.
I gather you are unable to read, you insolent dolt. Read it again.
I’m a buyer at $16.75 – $17 … good support, fib pullback and 100 dma there
weaponsgrade–
the definition of an asshole is someone who thinks he has to say shit that he really has no business saying.
There’s two ways to make money in the market: the Fly’s way and the bullshit small pleb way.
Guess which way you’ve chosen.
You need to pay more attention and learn something.
I believe in santa. 😉
The anticipation of an early january drop is not uncommon now… the belief that we go higher in 2011 is extremely widespread. No way we close 2011 materially higher w/o scaring the bejeebers out of most everybody
Major Wave4 of Primary Wave3 (Feb-Apr) will shake the tree and cause many to miss Major Wave5 over the summer … then Primary Wave4 will scare the “bejeebers” out of everyone setting them up to stay short just as Primary Wave5 finishes off this cycle into the 2012 elections.
I guess I don’t follow a whole lot of elliott wave. I remember looking once, when Prechter was calling for dow 1500, and from a 50 year look at the S&P it looked pretty bullish, not bearish, by my attempt to count the waves.
witness the concept of “flopflation” and prepare for it.
And I do, in fact, not believe in everything written on the internet.
And, in honor of a great deal of enjoyment I have reaped from IBC, I will now observe that this post is being made while wearing a Tom Ford suit and the single nicest pair of cowboy boots on this planet. While wearing a 116589 BRIL with baguette and meteorite. I.E., like a distinguished gentlemen indeud!
Happy new year IBC and all.
“If the market reverses badly” you will not have the time to “easily sell three positions and allocate said funds into 3x levered, fucked up, Direxion ETF’s”.
The gains on your longs will be lost, and the ETF’s will be priced too high to make decent profits. Market corrections are instantaneous these days. One must ANTICIPATE the top and shift position before it happens.
Egg…….fucking……zactly.
Haven’t the trends lasted for weeks? It seems like there is plenty of time to change direction and still profit in both directions. What am I missing?
It all comes down to a matter of perspective and time frame. Yes, trends take a little time to change, but what we are talking about here is well-timed gentlemanly trading with precision, not trading like a tree sloth on Zoloft—-if that makes any sense.
Anticipating is not as easy as it sounds…many, if not all who try, end up with big losses that they barely get back to even on when the market corrects. If it is truly a change in trend, you will have plenty of time to make money on the way down.
So buy the losers now, because people are selling them to book tax losses, and sell the winners now, because people will wait until after jan 1 to sell them and book the profits? I always seem to get the year end stuff wrong.
GS, MS, BAC, and JPM need to make money off trading the market. Do you think they will make a lot of money with every fucking clown longing the market right now? Also, you need to remember their institutional status. With all Joes longing the market with leverage, any buy by these institutions will boost the market by a gigantic amount. Therefore, you have to believe that they will collude to drop the market at some point, get cheaper prices, and establish institutional positions for the next leg up.
There was a 3 months period in which all banks make profit on every single trading day. It wasnt a coincidence.
Great post Fly
Good day for some degenerate gambling, Joe-Pesci-bar-scene style.
Fly you still hold GMO??
“dolt” haven’t heard you use that term since “FB” Fly…
Pop! goes the ATPG.
Nice one, Fly.
-DT
Yes, I am enjoying my ATPG X-mas gift today. Thanks Fly.
Aida commercial on CNBC!
IN-deuuuuuuuuud!
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