Question: If we are printing money like reckless knaves, then why is the dollar up 2%, year to date? Moreover, if the Fed is buying U.S. debt, then why are yields soaring? Mind you, yields are not inching up. They are fucking soaring (see TLT).
If I was looking at this market, from a totally objective point of view, without all of the rhetoric, I’d surmise the economy was about to rip higher. Forget about all of the noise. The fact of the matter is, the Fed is aiming to buoy the economy, via POMO. What if it’s working? Is it possible that mystery money is finding its way into the economy, which will result in a sharp increase in employment?
Let’s be honest, we’ve become so jaded with regards to the economy that the very idea of it coming back is almost resentful to market pundits. We hate this economy and laud the fucking bullshit coming out of communist China. Think about it.
What we have right now is a steady dollar, rising equity markets, rising yields and soaring commodities. In my opinion, this trade will continue until commodity prices begin to impair corporate earnings via punitive input costs. Because of this thesis, I am 90% long, heavily in commodity related names, without fear of egregious bearshitter reprisals. However, I will be keeping an eye on yields and input prices, for they could easily change market sentiment on a dime, sending my holdings lower. Until then, up I go; up we go.
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fuggin a man, fuggin a
Nah, it can’t be that….
Have no fear. Bennie B. wouldn’t raise rates if oil hit a thousand a barrel.
so then the unemployment #’s at present are the new norm,and the ben bernanke is printing and giving it all away,as if life at 10%unemployment is ok,so carry on? all i know is the dow was at 14k plus before we crashed, and thats the overhead resistance about to come back,does it all implode there.guess will find out soon enough.
Drummer boy:
We had a very deep scathing recession that sent the country and the world into a tailspin. There are problems in the US, but why shoud the economy not be recovering now. What’s so different to other recession?
The US is on the mend and will soon get into the expansionary stage.. People are talking about 4% growth next near. I think it could even be higher.
It’s different because we’ve a communist in the White House.
The economy was shit for five years of Jimmah Cahtah and Hangover.
And he wasn’t half the socialist Obammer and the Pod People (Stretchy and Harry) are.
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This recession has to end sometime. Might as well be sometime soon. I don’t intend on returning to currencies anytime soon though.
I love free money
I agree. (Not that it matters of course.) I disagree a bit on unemployment though. It could be a slow grind to higher employment, but I don’t think it matters. As long as demand improves, business will eventually hire. The older workers who can’t find real jobs will retire early, or find some other things to keep them busy.
Young college graduates who can’t find jobs are starting their own businesses that don’t require capital. Dow 14,000 in no time at all.
More food for thought.
Have you ever heard a Real Estate agent say “now is not the time to buy”?
buy the dips?
Rates have SOARED since the announcement of QE2. What has the macroeconomic data done during that same short window of time? Some of it’s a little better, yes, but some of it’s a little worse; maybe the “little better” wins by a SLIGHT margin, but only a slight one, and certainly not “better enough” to make rates suddenly soar.Thus, I think the “cause” and “effect” behind higher rates is pretty obvious.
Employment will recover as the economy recovers. Businesses have to be doing better to hire more people. Just like businesses have to be growing to need new office space or manufacturing plant.
Did you read what our next President had to say about the tax bill that’s about to pass?
http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/forum/2010-12-14-column14_ST_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip
Romney makes the obvious points, but he still failed to expand on what really needs to happen to right the ship = cut egregious wasteful spending at the Federal level.
Re-building the infrastructure of Iraq after we bombed it back into the stone age makes all the defense contractors very happy. But it’s a colossal waste of U.S. taxpayer money.
Here’s another idea: why can’t we as a people demand that a bill passes or fails in Congress based on its own merits ? No adding on to a bill to make it appeasing to one side or the other, just present the bill for its original intent & merits and vote on it. The Obama healthcare bill has stuff in it totally unrelated to its original intent.
Oops, cutting “egregious wasteful spending” will sank the ship. Know why? Because that will kill demand. No demand=no income, no income=no growth. Simple as it is.
“cut egregious wasteful spending at the Federal level.”
That’s rhetoric that gets politicians elected, although I “treu”ly [sic] agree with you. The only way to fix our government is to fix social security and all the entitlement programs. Discretionary spending amounts to depeezy dick compared to the waste going on with the U.S. entitlement programs…
Tax the millionaires heavier. They reap the most benefits from our society. Their wealth is protectd from angry mobs.
Spoken like a treu piker.
If I know Cascadian, he was saying that with his tongue so firmly implanted in his cheek that he won’t be able to taste salad dressing for a week.
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Well, if we assume that new money is being injected into the economy (and I am not really sure that’s the case), it creates additional demand for economy’s real output. This means incomes will also be up via multiplier, and that in its turn strengthens USD.
If we further assume that 10% unemployment was the bottom level in this recession, then after recent prolongation of the tax cuts it seems justifiable that The Only Way Is Up”, baby.
So in order to create a sustainable economy, all we have to do is print more money?
Your new name is hereby: “Ponzi Shark.”
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STFU
ummm because currencies trade against each other moron. look at commodities vs currencies asskart.
If the employment situation is so bad, then why are MAN and RHI ripping higher?
Question: If we are printing money like reckless knaves, then why is the dollar up 2%, year to date?
Answer: Because of weakness in the Euro and the Pound…DUH !
The US economy still sucks….just not as much as Europe’s
2% relative to commodities? Me no tink so.
MOFO has it.
We’re going to new FFFFUCKING highs on the Nasdaq !! WITHOUT DIPS
it’s a technology revolution and this time its for real. Facebook, twitter and all that will change the WORLD
there is no time to worry about unemployment, the euro area and worthless fiat paper
The Ben Bernanke finishes saving shadow banking liabilities and comes out and says “everything’s OK now.” That is when the real trouble starts.
The Ben will never be finished. The next Ben, BenB2, will be more eggregious. It will be interesting to see what Ron Paul is able to do as chairman of the subcommittee overseeing Ben. I hope Ron P is smarter than his rhetoric.
Are you keeping one eye out for the VXX trade, or has that idea been banished to the outer recesses of your calculator brain?
Anyone see Best Buy? If the econom y is so groovy then why is no one buying TV’;s to watch Dancing WIth The Stars.
The economy goes higher as long as the entitlement checks keep flowing and people continue not paying their mortgages and go on trips to Disneyland instead
The problem is the government is bankrupt and their spending is unsustainable. This will all end in tears. Economic recovery my ass. The government has replaced the consumer and the bond market is about to shit the whole sham down.
If one is paranoid, but people really are out to get them; at that point they are realistic.
Let’s be honest, we’ve become so jaded with regards to the economy that the very idea of it coming back is almost resentful to market pundits.
True
We hate this economy and laud the fucking bullshit coming out of communist China.
True Think about it.
Done
^True but irrelevant.
Al Gore is a self-serving idiot.
True
Mother Theresa is self-serving.
Mother Theresa benefits others.
True
What the pundits think or do not think has little to do with the economy in the long run.
Whatever Al Gore thinks about global warming has no effect on it’s existence on non-existence.
I’m not buying any of this faux “recovery”.