News Alert: our resident gold-bug, “Senator Gint” has surrendered his Chairmanship of the Gold-Bug committee, due to exogenous events inside of his brain. Effective immediately, “Senor Tropicana” aka “The Fly” aka “Platinum Petey” is your new resident gold/silver bug, as evidenced by his splendid EXK position.
Let it be known and heard throughout these halls.
That is all.
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This is a most unexpected turn of events! Have you no fear that you have bedded down with these bugs at PRECISELY the wrong moment at PRECISELY the wrong time??
Given your ridiculous string of wins since the VXX incident, i won’t doubt you at this time. Normally, however, i would.
If you owned PM, what would be your reason for selling now?
mean reversion
You mean like the gold/silver ratio reverting to 20?
STFU.
I wonder if Jake will go long coffee here
I fear SLV is your new VIX, set a stop loss please and promise to move on.
TOO BAD I DO NOT OWN SLV, BITCH-WHORE. Fucking banned. Fuck all of you cowards.
ok, I will repent. Just feeling silver is about to get the homo hammer and EXK will suffer.
PFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF. Silver doesn’t care about your feelings. Quit being such an emo-homo.
What does PFFFFFFFFFFFF stand for? Like poof?
(uncontrollable laughter)
Gentleman,
Silver’s headed to $50 and more.
You don’t really believe the clam do you? He’s never been right about anything he predicted.
Never forget, the Fly does his homework like nobody’s business. It’s not some whim.
SLV is not going to stop or top. Maybe I’ll sell some when it hits $200 or so.
I’ll let that be known. Let’s also scream out Shining Golden Shields.
You bamboozled Ol’e CH into buying 20k FTK @ 2.07 and proceed to grab the PM Belt from him…..Indeud
It was planned out well in advance. He will be buying GMCR in no time at all.
I was short SLV, until I covered today. It pulled back nicely and could move higher. Silver companies should report massive earnings off of the moves.
By the way if you were in 12631 you would have seen my trade real time short SLV @ 29.40 with a cover today at 27.50. +6.5% in 2 days.
Congrats on the excellent trade!
I did the same thing, but with ZSL.
Like I warned before ZSL is a strange etn.
For tax purposes you will get a K-1 partnership tax form and then I bet they will revise it at least 2 or 3 times after you already filed.
http://www.etftrends.com/2008/06/commodities-etf/
I trade ZSL in my self-directed IRAs. Which I need to turn into physical bullion sometime soon… no tax implications until the cash out.
Nicely done. I wish I had been smart enough to do that.
Even so, I will be adding going forward. Joey-bag-o-shiny-coins is not in the market. And weeks like this will keep him largely on the sidelines. There will be no top until my shoeshine boy tells me how well he is doing in silver. The bearded one does not want the pm’s rocketing skyward. It would scare the sheeple.
i would note that you have taken on the extra angry demeanor of a truly dedicated goldbug…
now to complete the transformation, you just need to start frothing about the mouth and ranting incoherently about liberal conspiracies and communist takeovers.
My thoughts exactly.
If the banking oligarchy is not pro-communist, then what is it? Pro-Pink Unicorn?
Love your analytical abilities concerning the obvious.
The Chi-coms are not even pro-communist anymore.
I strongly suspect MUB / BAB municipal bond etfs will outperform in the next few months. I mean, i dont think you can find anyone, anywhere, who is bullish on municipal bonds here.
When something reaches the point where every fundamental, and technical, trader agree it can never go up again—the squeezes tend to be fairly vicious.
I mean, how many of these new senators and congressmen will really be willing to bankrupt their own states? There are alot of congressional freshmen, who won’t have the courage to get thrown out , after one term.
They will flinch at the last minute–and allow some kind of bailout.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JA1wrvqDRNw
I keep diligent notes of al my detractors.
Its always important to take good notes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSgiVutQ2JQ&t=0m10s
panama,
re an earlier post re China’s bogus #’s.
Yea, so what. They don’t believe our numbers either (inflation, unemployment…)
lol
well the good news is it looks like the market wants to try for 1300 before the month is out…or maybe 1280, 1300 does seem a bit egregious, no?
Lets say 1250 by COB Monday, and then a slow burn up to 1280 on that wonderful post christmas week. Honestly, a mere 50 additional points between now and end of year almost seems quaint. we’ll see if they are willing to settle for that.
I had a bid for EDR (EXK Canadian stock) for $6.50, missed it by .03 cents! Damn!
Setting a bid at an even or half dollar increment is stupid.
So if I had bid say $6.43, that would have been a brighter move?
I would have suggested 6.53
Thanks alot guys! I’ll try that tomorrow!
See, that’s the spirit. Hopefully you learnt sumthin today.
I like grapes.
If you really wanted to get filled then a few pennies above 6.50 would have been the way to go and that’s not requiring hindsight. My luck I would have bid 6.52 and been stuck in the same spot you are.
po,i did that monday morning on exk,had a bid 1 cent higher,at the open,it just blew right over it,and didnt get filled. so took out 4 contracts @ a 1.00 each. on the feb 11,7.50 strike…….havent put on a contract since last jan.
MGN a junior silver play for those of us with incredibly large balls.
All dips in gold & silver shall be bought until further notice.
Most recent buy: SLW on the dip 11/10. Long & strong.
Wonder how that JMP silver short is working out…
Wrong again!
Everyone knows 6.66 is the proper bid. Prove me wrong.
I’ll never forget that day. You have seen the state lotto results in Illinois on election night, right? 666.
Then 666 is the bottom?
That’s crazy shit.
Been in the metals since early 09. Sold half my position yesterday. Senor Fly, I hope you’re ready to withstand a drawdown for the next month or so. Gold is due for an intermediate correction to bring sentiment back down to the gutter. If you can hold through that, your positions will become wildly profitable as we are going several mutliples higher before the PMs finish their ride. For now, though, they are going to shake the riders of the bull’s back before charging once again up and over the mountain.
My analysis is leaning the same way, but technical analysis has been wrong in many instances lately, when it comes to USD and PMs. Too much banker manipulation has created this scenario. Trade accordingly.
This market is on borrowed time. As it moves higher, we should be getting more cautious, not euphoric.
…..Praying for a repeat of of 2008, so I can buy stocks cheap again. (I know, it’s a pretty selfish prayer)
Maybe Bernanke or Obama can manage to screw things up again.
Pelosi for President would be the ticket.
…oh wait, they already did.
Be careful what you wish for.
We’ll get that 2008 repeat and much more.
How is it that cows are “smart” enough to lay down before it rains? (to have a dry spot)
The US birthrate has dropped sharply in the last 2 years. Even the dumbest people somehow have an inkling that the future will not be bright. Just one of dozens of subtle cues that something is amiss.
As you were.
I see a lot of cows standing out in the rain.
The funny thing about you gold bugs is the nerve to think you can offer me financial advice. Most of you are one trick ponies.
Never tell a space alien magician how to operate his space rocket.
Ok, then you won’t want to hit the button that says “Launch” then.
~ Mom
Alpha
If we get another 2008, we won’t make it out again.
True. Not really wanting an exact repeat of 2008—-much to painful and gut wrenching. Just wishing for a big “technical” correction in prices. I would be happy if we go back to 10,000 Dow….9,000 would be even better. Anything to get valuations back to reasonable levels.
The prospect (no deference to Gint) of buying more stocks here is unappealing. Right now, we’re all gambling, or otherwise “investing” using the greater fool theory.
lol , and in top of 2007 what the market was doing . investing for real ? real crash ahead ?
ahahah
The “new normal”, as the folks at PIMPCO are fond of referring to, calls for more volatility, booms and busts, melt ups and melt downs. This is trading nirvana for those who are into top hats, brass rings and lightly salted ribeyes.
Alpha, I agree with everything you are saying, but why do we care then to get a pullback for lower valuations? Most of us hear trade and hold a stock for a week or two at most because that is what this market dictates. I dont’ care if I buy a 50 p/e stock and it goes to a 70 p/e, or if I buy a 9 p/e that goes to a 12 p/e. Unless it makes you sleep better at night, but I know I’m just as concerned if I’m 100% long holding 9 p/e stocks in a downtrending market versus being 100% long holding 50 p/e stocks in an uptrending market.
Unless you want that pullback to lower valuations so you can become a buy-and-holder type in which case we put all of our money into the Magellan fund and turn off the computers, ala 1980?
When I tell people what I do for a living they always ask where I think the market is going to be next year or longer, and I tell them I don’t care. I don’t care if it is at 20,000 going to 25,000, or at 10,000 going to 8000, as long as I know what direction it is going in the next few weeks.
That said, I think the rising interest rate environment is going to make it difficult for the market to go higher until it abates.
Fly is speaking to us from the future.:-)
When he says “Go the fuck back!!!!” then I’ll believe that.
If we get another 2008, US unemployment to 40% (real number not the official number) and people start rioting.
Le Fly,
Its true that this gold bug (only because its a bull market) has not matched your returns…(I average appx 30% per year for the past seven years. Prior to that I lost money each of 5 years), but I have ridden this gold market using mostly silver and miners with rhythmic beauty. And I’m here to tell you, you’re risking a drawdown. Now, I know you have the resources to ride it out if it occurs, but do you have the patience? If so, a drawdown will end up being a blip on the radar as this bull is nowhere near done. So, time will tell. And hey, you may be right. Gold may just rip higher. Doubtful, but possible. That’s why I still hold appx 45% of my position in the metals.
I think the top in the precious metals will happen when the last country in line at the nurse’s office gets their sticker and meds. It’ll be the IMF (US) put. That’s the thesis people purchasing most dollar-based commodities are using: blah blah bailouts, short dollar, buy commodities.
The initial reaction to the EIA report today was a selloff in oil because, fundamentally speaking, inventories of refined products are building; the bleeding was quickly staunched. The asshole dip buyer is fierce and refuses silverware at Le Bernardin. You saw the reactions to increased margin requirements on some select commodities the other week. The incredible volatility exhibited after those announcements is a sign of the presence of speculation, but margin requirements do not change the fact that bailouts were still front page.
My reason for purchasing SCO yesterday was the hope for a short term pullback after the EIA report paired with a respite before the next nation/state needs assistance. I’m contemplating holding through the weekend for the reaction after China announces a rising CPI, tightening of reserves, and raising of rates.
Everybody and their brother has been talking about the upcoming China rate hike next week. With so many people leaning that way doesn’t it make it more likely they say fuck off and leave things unchanged? I mean absolutely NOTHING has gone according to consensus this year so why should this be different?
My thought was that they just moved the CPI release date up to before the interest rate announcement probably because it holds some significance. China has also been targeting a sequentially slower and more stable economy which should remove some speculation of the China-needs-oil-no-matter-what thesis.
I think the easy trade from here on out is to put 50% of your portfolio into physical silver (small denominations, including junk silver) and just sit on it for two years. Trying to outperform the returns on that on an annual basis will be difficult, IMO. Trading takes time so one must factor in what they would pay themself to perform this daily function. You can go work for a living in a separate FT gig and compound your earnings.
IMO, the PMs will crash after it’s announced by the World Bank and IMF that the new global reserve currency will be backed by carbon credits, and not gold. It will take at least two more years before that happens. Wait till after the next massive round of option ARM resets in 2011, for sure.
Carbon credits??? Who comes up with this stuff?
Go ahead, try to buy a loaf of bread with your carbon credits.
The torch and pitchfork crowd does NOT accept carbon credits.
That plan has changed since climategate, the collapse of the Chicago carbon market, and the rise of the internet’s 3rd best website:
Watts Up With That.
You can’t base it on something that the general population now knows to be even more ephemeral and crooked than fiat currency.
It will now move to the plan of 20 years ago and be gold backed.
“You can’t base it on something that the general population now knows to be even more ephemeral and crooked than fiat currency.”
You should check back with the general population. I don’t believe they received the memo. Besides, the creation of fabricated public consensus may be managed by the purchased mainstream media, via bogus public opinion poll results (which is why we see so many of these in the news now).
All most people need to know is that a (fake) public opinion poll says that most other people disagreee with them, and they won’t buck the system out of fear of being socially isolated.
Bleier lost his tab ?
sold CIEN pre-market.