By the way, my boy Scott Bleier is on fucking fire, with his show and newsletter. If you need a little hand holding, do yourself a favour [sic], sign up for his newsletter. He’s dead on with the “flash crash” with regards to stop losses. What happened last week is no different than an armed robbery of a bank. Just in this case, the bank was you. They pretty much flushed out all of the below market stops and likely flipped them for handsome profits, all part and parcel of re-liquifying the banks. How is it possible for the banks to book PERFECT trading quarters?
Answer: collusion.
In other news, the euro, [[FXE]] , is getting APED RAPED as we speak. As we speak, men in fancy pants are selling euros and buying art. To be honest, I don’t blame them. After all, a Picasso will always retain value, no matter what. If the euro collapses and a new currency is born, Mr. Fancy Pants can sell his collection of Picasso painting for lots of new/baby currency.
Anyway, my algorithms tell me we are due for a pullback. Even still, barring a big upside move, I will probably keep my allocation as is, in order to keep a low beta profile. For the love of dirty cellphones and tainted sugar, this market is too fucked up to trust.
In short, keep your eyeballs glued to the screen, for your life may depend on it, indeud.
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The Fly is God.
sycophant
the Men in Fancy pants are going up against a stated trillion dollar fund to defend the Euro. Euro shorts may end up winning but they are going to take a lot of casualties in the process. Angela Merkel ain’t Erin Callen.
It’s not a given the Euros lose of this, Tampa. This shit is evolving as we go along for the ride.
The real question is if Europe decides to federate and consolidate their budgets. It’s still a long shot however the move they have made may signal that that is the way they’re headed. It doesn’t mean Greece won’t take it in the balls as they should in terms of an austerity package, however it does mean that they won’t let the fucker go bust as they rest will take their shitty debt and ride it into poverty through the ECB.That’s the way they want to go it seems.
I completely agree with you in regards to collusion. If the ECB met with member country banks to discuss a “bailout” of sorts, the way to mitigate risk would be to have all participants aligned. Promote plans to dissuade negative sentiment through buying up of weakening assets and staunching negative money flows. There must be the willingness to make loans to one another and with the US etc. As long as nobody fucks each other, confidence can be restored and LIBOR/TED spreads can settle. It’s like the game theory of all Napa Valley wineries promoting the small area of Napa ahead of their respective winery.
And don’t give me that stupid rising tide analogy, it’s so playyyyyed.
I agree on collusion.
Re: the Napa analogy, if the big profitable wineries were asked to provide funding for poorly operated, poorly funded wineries for an extended period of time with slim chance of repayment or success; they would say NFW. N=No, W=Way
The Greek situation is unsustainable. They will crash hard. The only question is when.
Hmmm..
When a noted stock operateur like you can’t trust the market, what happens to Mom and Pop investor? A sordid state of affairs indeed.
I buy CSCO- this pullback is stupid.
… this market is too fucked up to trust.
word.
which word? there are 8 of them, or did you mean “words”
ha…
If the “market” were allowed to operate, we could deal with it; it’s the govmnt fuckery that’s the problem
Here’s a fucking scenario I’ve been thinking about. The Euro fuckers stabilize the debt situation there with smoke and mirrors and more importantly by getting the ECB becoming a deadbeat central bank owning E500 billion of that shitty debt or more
The Euro makes it’s way to 1 15 or possibly lower. The biggest engine in the the EU , Germany takes off like a rocket as the fucking place is so under-leveraged and the lower Euro as well as inappropriate interest settings has Germany blow the trees off with monetary stimulus induced growth Same applies to Holland France etc and strangely enough Italy .. Northern Italy…. as those fuckers are also big exporters.. funnily enough Italy’s bonds behaved very “corelishly” seeing they have been getting a better handle on their primary debt and will be running a surplus next year.
Japan starts to QE a lot more.
The US doesn’t have much of an issue funding the deficit because no one is going buy that bullshit about the Euro becoming a reserve currency anymore.
We have US growth. EU doesn’t look to bad and japan finally does something.
QEing was what we talked about that these fuckers had to do in order to get things stabilized a bit here and that’s what we’re seeing from the EU and Japan.
If that optimistic picture holds stocks are off to the races.
I bought a decent swag of EWG.
As is inflation.
____
j…good post…thanks
Interesting shit, J. Did you check out Midnight Oil yet?
J,
I agree we may be looking at a scenario where stocks keep rolling. I was talking with someone smart a few months ago who is not an investor and doesn’t follow stocks. It was when they were passing one of the latest stimulus bills. It had a different name. I said did you see how much they just passed yesterday and he said “they’re throwing money at it and they’re going to keep throwing money at it until it’s fixed.”
I thought it was a nice Occum’s Razor type analysis. I’ve been staying bullish for the most part since.
I am summing up my investment thesis calling this the Decimal Decade: in 2020 we will look back, God willing, and say the unprecedented money pumping around the world in the beginning of the decade led to the decimal being moved one place to the right.
That’s my 2, soon to be 20 cents, take on the market.
It’s a good scenario but if the resulting inflation or currency devaluation drives the price of energy back to the previous highs it will put the brakes on the market.
good point,
I wonder if oil could maybe stay down due to the pricing mechanism of the past five years working and every nation in the world that is a producer trying to maximize revenues by selling barrels into the market?
Natural gas pricing was crushed due to all the new supply and discoveries and now shale seems to be providing even more supply.
I don’t know, but the peak oil theory seemed to peak in popularity with GS’s peak strength.
Oil should be spiking based on the spill, but it’s not for some reason? I have no feel or guess on oil’s future price, but I don’t buy that it’s a currency hedge like I have read some say. Especially if this is 1930 in China.
Gold to me is the hedge and will at some point hit an inflation adjusted all time high in the next few years.
Darn Fly…You know I read Scott’s comments last night about washing out all the stops and it has been the focus of my thoughts for the last 12 hours….It was such a great simple point that I had not seen before. I agree Scott is on point………………………………………………………….Tea! missed you on the other post, China last night had Banks and Steel, Copper players in rally mode, not property or oil (well govt was messing around w/oil)…..they were bouncing to resistance after they fell below Sept 09 support…just like this market, I am not sure why it’s being held up….
The BRIC squeeze worked:
http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=131&f=geo_bric,sh_avgvol_o400&o=-shortinterestshare
DVAX is working for me!
http://henryfoolspicks.wordpress.com/2010/05/13/dvax-is-a-slow-train-coming/#comment-32
UNG bottom?
See
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
Its funny, i was just contemplating the same event. I may not be as seasoned an investor as you fly but in my limited experience i know that nothing happens in this market without someone or something pulling the strings! The 1000 point move just stank of manipulation. Some entity with Lots of power and money raping the little fish in the market. I will have to check out that article you speak of.
Love the blog by the way!
Fancy pants men are talking one game, doing another. They want a devalued Euro. So, tell all the traders “we support a strong euro”, let them think they are banking coin, let them do all the devaluation work. Brilliant, fancy pants men.
the RICO statutes should be used against them. truly.
Goldman’s chief economist gave euro 1.35 as a target last week. I don’t recommend fading the squid. I certainly don’t recommend going short into the most crowded short trade in the history of “commitment of traders” reports–at the same time. This will happen to you:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1knMcWZwvAc&feature=player_embedded#!
320 pound dry martini sipping wall street market makers ruined honest investing
The other effect was take everyone and have them afraid to buy. Krull won’t touch, fly is worried, everyone on every blog. Meanwhile they will take it up until everyone can’t f***take it anymore. I have been buying since day one. Selling a lot today.
They were not only sucking the longs out of everyone but sucking everyone into buying puts and going short.
Be prepared for a 1:00pm rally off of a positive 30-yr bond auction.
Still long RDN from mid 9s.
how else do sell gold??? Sold my gold funds today.