iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,048 Blog Posts

Euro Prison / State Prison

Greece has no choice but to rape itself because they cannot devalue their currency, since it’s not really their own (euro). Essentially, they have no control over monetary policy. Their choices are simple: default or implement severe spending cuts, which will most certainly lead to gripping deflation. As such, the deflation cycle will increase the debt burden. The most likely scenario, in my opinion, is Greece dropping the Euro and printing away like a little midget Bernanke.

The larger issue is Spain. Once the vultures get through with Greece, Portugal and Ireland, they will fuck with Spain, who represents 10% of the EU’s GDP. This is where the EU game will end, unless Santa Claus gifts that shit bag of a continent with free gold bricks and shit. Do you think Germany and France will finance Spain to the tune of $500 billion, if need be? PFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF

That’s as funny as a margin call on Christmas.

Let’s be honest, these sovereign debt issues are really bank issues, dressed up in fancy suits and ties. By bailing out Greece, the IMF is saving French and German banks. Who do they think they are kidding?

Recent IMF bailouts include: Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Romania: all fucked. Done.

So, my question to you is: once we get done with burning the EU down, will the financial arsonists target US municipalities? Like members of the EU, states cannot print money. So, like Greece, they need to default or make draconian spending cuts, which, once again, is incredibly deflationary. States that have severe debt issues include: New Jersey, California, Connecticut, New York and Illinois.

The likelihood of the Federal government letting any of those states default is minimal. So, with that in mind, we are heading for rapid inflation or deflation, of the most egregious kind. However, until that happens, the tenuous recovery might get clown raped by the events unraveling in the EU—all reasons to be very cautious with your investment objectives.

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118 comments

  1. TheV.King

    Well said dear friend…. 85lbs hammer curls

    Fly the V.King is going to take Lord Jeremy to a Yankee game when he comes into NYC…I would like you to be there…maybe a subway series game? I know you will say no here…but please think about it. We can talk about old times, drink $12 beers and flip pretzel salt into the eyes of the weak….

    V.King …getting it going

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  2. Teahouse On The Tracks
    Teahouse On The Tracks

    have R W follow the private jets to Switzerland to see who is escaping the taxman and devaluation …

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  3. TA

    We are in secular bear(not really a bear, more a large sideway range) that should last till at least 2014.

    Something has to keep us from making new highs till then, maybe your Karl-esque thesis will prove true.

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    • The Fly

      Sorry, the world is scheduled to end in 2012.

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    • Dave

      Vitaliy Katsenelson calls it a secular “range-bound” market. Secular bear sounds fine to me. Whatever you call it, he, John Hussman and Jim Rogers all think we’re in one until 2016 or later, and that a secular bull won’t start until valuations are far lower than they are now (e.g., trailing P/Es <10).

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    • Prospectus

      It’s a secular Bear in valuations. It can tank or go sideways and still get undervalued over time.

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  4. TheV.King

    Fly may I just say…Fuck Greece!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-6M5FukAoE

    HARD! If you will in their asses…(we are talking about Greece)

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  5. Dave

    It looks like this is going to be the Greece sequence:

    1) Bailout + as much fiscal belt-tightening as the Greek government can implement without government workers knocking down the Parthenon out of spite.

    2) Debt restructuring or default a year or two down the road, when the rescue money dries up.

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  6. RosenRush

    I realize I am an eternal pessimist, but I really don’t know why we are not at Dow 6k, or S&P 600…I know things take time to unfold, but aren’t we just screwed beyond return at this point?! It’s one thing to run a little deficit here and there when things are bad, but the projections for years to come are scary.

    Does the US have the balls to tell China to take their paper and shove it? If they don’t, we all should start taking Chinese lessons very soon.

    TAT, you are calling for a reversal up tomorrow, but shouldn’t this be one of those times where the market just endlessly falls apart without hesitation? I mean, with the way it’s been I realize anything is possible, but it would seem that the more days the market goes down, the more people get scared, the more selling, etc etc etc. Seems to me like the next couple of weeks should be down on a pure momentum build…no?

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  7. RosenRush

    …and by the way, what is going through the minds of the Greek idiots that are rioting and protesting? Where do they think this magical money to pay for them should come from? Reminds me quite a bit of the auto unions not too long ago here in Motown…you know how that story ended.

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    • Dr Fly

      That’s because austerity measures are extremely hard on the lower class. They will feel it through pay cuts and entitlement cuts. Essentially, they are protesting because their government failed them, which is understandable.

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler
      Mr. Cain Thaler

      You’re a Detroit resident, RosenRush?

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  8. TA

    A nice 2-3 day bounce rally is coming tomorrow or Friday.

    I like MTL, X and even the destroyed AKS here for a short term play but as Scott said, anything hitting support today should be a good bet.

    Coal, Real Estate and Casinos have been very strong in the downturn. Also still love Fly’s FSYS.

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    • Dave

      What’s your thinking on AKS?

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      • TA

        Not my chart but it’s a good one http://chart.ly/gyg7ar – decent 2 day bounce anyways.

        Fundamentally the MEE overhang is going to be a pain for a while.

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        • Dave

          Thanks, interesting. So he thinks it’s going to bounce off 15? I shorted this at 16 and change. Would have been a better short, in hindsight, around 22, but we’ll see what happens.

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    • TheV.King

      Awesome….Becauseof your PPT the V.King made 26K today..I want 10 of those Tee’s…I need them with a 52 chest….

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    • ecchymosis

      I like the way the price is doubled when you add item to cart!!!

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  9. mhass33

    So the ideal portfolio would be 50% gold 50% something that does well in deflation that isn’t cash?

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    • Dr Fly

      No. I do not like gold. Deflation is the current theme.

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      • Jakegint

        All evidence to the contrary….

        ______

        (Aside: In our most deflationary environment on record — the Great Depression — Homestake (Gold) Mining was a top performer.)

        ____

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  10. charlie

    Once again the PPT pays for itself, pikers. Members are entitled to a $974.95 discount. Yea. Suck that PPT big dick. And shine my shoes.

    In other news, Fly’s office security cam video feed was hacked this morning, and a tape showing what appears to be Fly’s typical PPT morning login routine [sic] has be released on the interwebs. Enjoy before R.W. gets back from Athens.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5thXcDDIQS8

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  11. scott

    Guys! Have you ever heard of a Brady Bond? Problem solved! Restructure and exchange the debt. So some investors get screwd and so will some banks. But they can always hide their losses if the government will let them.

    That is the answer and when they figure it out markets will go apeshit.

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    • Dr Fly

      Not a chance in hell we issue Brady bonds to the euro fuckers. Mainstreet would go nu-ku-lar

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      • scott

        Not we, THEM, the veritable EU. They’ll take a page from our playbook and we’ll help, of course.

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        • Dr Fly

          Well, that’s possible. But that will not stop the crisis spreading to all PIIGS, no? Plus, we all know Germany and France will be the main backers of such bonds. Not sure that will fly.

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          • scott

            The faster the workout is announced, the sooner the crisis in yields will end…

            It is a hit to the banks, but it is the only viable answer that I can think of. Default is not an option.

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      • tradingnymph

        I heard someone else talking about them…“Barroso Bonds” for Greece, named after the European Commission president José Manuel Barroso,,,,,,

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      • 500kmin

        they can just put another fake bomb in time square the day they give out the Brady Bonds (a-la imf giving Greece our dough) main street will not have a clue.

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  12. skogie1

    Good post. So what are you doing with TLT? Are you out? I’m unloading half right about here and holding the rest just to see where we go, for what it’s worth.

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  13. Dr Fly

    I’m liking volatility, VXX

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  14. The_Real_Hmmm

    The V.King eats hockey pucks for snacks.

    Hey V.King, I got a friend who’s thinking of moving soon. You have an afternoon free to give him a lift? It’s mostly stone and three stories, leave the foundation.

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  15. trailing zebra
    trailing zebra

    Well said.
    The answer is of course, yes. There is no escape.

    Indeed, Greece is today’s trailing zebra with Portugal, Italy Ireland, Spain UK, & the fat grain-fed NJ, CA, CT, NY & IL zebras not far ahead. The wolves will target these obese out-of-shape critters one at a time. There’s no conspiracy. It’s simply the laws of nature (supply & demand) in effect. Bernanke & Co can only keep the wolves at bay for so long. The final outcome is known. But the timing, order and exact means are unknown.

    “Let’s be honest, these sovereign debt issues are really bank issues, dressed up in fancy suits and ties. By bailing out Greece, the IMF is saving French and German banks. Who do they think they are kidding?”

    It’s so obvious – now that you said it, but I hadn’t thought it – until now.

    Can’t stop it – may as well have plenty of marshmallows on hand.

    Burn the mother down: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6CWTsVIyk4&feature=related
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_sY2rjxq6M

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  16. gbest

    Fly,

    on your post above regarding gold, that you don’t like it in deflation, though it as had it’s greatest run up lately, although the fed as printed heavily. Have we not just been through very large inflation, regarding all aspects of the economy and the stock market and now we have deflationary trend fed as been fighting for the last 2 years.

    I am in Canada but earn US$, I have never exchanged them for CAD$, if the US$ is screwed then are all currency’s, not screwed? If the US$ does infact ultimatly dive after what looks like could now be rise in the US$ going forward. Do you then believe in gold as a store of wealth if the you US$ hit some highs in these next few months?

    Some one posted here yesterday an interview by the shadow stats guy. He said “US$ is finished, USA will be in a black economy, like zimbabwe. Zim solved it’s hyperinflate problem by turning to the us$ to conduct trade, though the USA does not have anything to turn to if US$ gets severily devalued in high inflation it could only turn to gold”, then said he like the Aussie and Can$.

    How could the can $, hold value if it’s largest trading partner had no value, to which it exports 70% of it’s products to.

    Would like to here your thoughs, most readings seem set the USD is done, some believe gold is going very high becuase of this,.

    Gold is very hard to conduct trade in, it can store wealth. But money is very easy to conduct day to day trade in, the absolute de-value of the dollar when all around is looking equally as bad, I keep my $’s and maybe store some wealth in gold but I have not as yet.

    Your thoughts on the $ and gold would be good to hear

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  17. Dr Fly

    i believe gold will have its day, just not yet.

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    • Doc

      I listened to a brilliant economist today talk for a second about gold, saying do cocaine instead, at least you die happy. He though it was bought by others as an inflation hedge which is a complete misconception. His only analysis proved it as when inflation was double digits gold went from 1k to 400 dollars.

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  18. tradingnymph

    Shanghai Comp is getting close to 3% down….and moving closer to testing Oct 2009 low….Shanghai Copper Futures not as much a drop but still down….I was hoping the retail sales would slow it up a bit….

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  19. gbest

    fly, physical gold you mean i take it?

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  20. gbest

    Fly, sorry

    one last piont on gold, as I don’t get this yellow stuff.

    If we buy gold today with todays dollars, the dollar then devalues , gold goes to 5000/oz, is still priced in dollars, so you sell your gold for dollars, it’s priced in dollars how is that preserving wealth.

    anyone care to enlighten me?

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    • Ross Jacobs

      Magic everywhere in this bitch.

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    • trailing zebra
      trailing zebra

      you have $2000
      1) $1000 you hold
      2) $1000 you buy gold

      gold goes up top $5000/oz

      now
      1) you have $1000
      2) you sell your gold for $5000

      you have $6000

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      • Jakegint

        Seriously, if shit as simple as this needs to be explained on this godly site, there’s no hope for America.

        Do we even teach the maths (sic) in the schools anymore?

        _____

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  21. No One

    If there was inflation gold and commodities would have been a great play.
    There is currently deflation, strong dollar. Gold is still good, but not great.
    Drop in oil reminds me of drop from $150.
    Anybody catch the volume in DUG?

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    • Dave

      I owned an oil royalty trust, BPT, for a few years. Sold it last month at just shy of $105 for a long term double and bought puts on it. Still holding those puts.

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      • Dave

        That f’n trust has the temerity to be up today. Probably some unfortunates thinking a rapidly-depleting trust with deceptively enticing yield represents a safe haven.

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        • Yogi & Boo Boo
          Yogi & Boo Boo

          BPT was mentioned on B-Berg radio this AM. with 9% yield…

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  22. tradingnymph

    Shanghai Comp went thru that and is down big……FXP BETTER be green tomorrow! Stupid reverse etf’s

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  23. Damon

    The IMF/Marxist/Progressive money response overseas…

    ….will be similar to the freaky billionaire power-players on both liberal coasts of the United States, albeit more the east coast, than west coast (per the Fly’s wishes)

    Back then, those liberals demanded “no surfactants” on the Exxon Valdez spill in ’89.

    Just look at the dead sea-otters & coastal sludge that still persists in that part of Alaska to this day.

    Now they are demanding we not use surfactants on the Gulf oil spill? 20 years later?

    Oops, sorry ’bout that…..the BP Brit’s must have missed the White House memo!

    British Petroleum took their surfactant dispersant planes and ships to task right away (Thank god)

    Now it’s a little too late for the no-surfactant crowd, huh?

    That is why this oil spill will turn into nothing more than a few tar globs on the rich-ass feet of the white sand beachcombers in south Palm Beach.

    The rest of the mess will be mostly political in nature, possibly turning multiple generations of shrimp fisherman into dependents of FEMA.

    Markets are poised to go to way down. Things are not good out there on Main Street.

    So go eat some American shrimp, if you can find it!

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    • Jakegint

      Most of the shrimp comes from Asia anyways. Buy UPS which hauls it here.

      Not sure the earl will make it all the way to Palm Beach but it will likely be ticking off the JOE beach front prop’ty people for some time.

      ____

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  24. Big fan of vking
    Big fan of vking

    Fly, you are right about gold. But wrong about Goldman. GS is surely going to be dismantled, that won’t help the price of the common. So what the hell are you thinking, wasting your capital like that?

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    • Ross Jacobs

      VKING ALL DAY

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    • Jakegint

      You are wrong on everything save being a fan of the Vking.

      ____

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      • Big fan of vking
        Big fan of vking

        Sorry Jakey, you have it backwards. Until gold makes a new high, forget it. Looks like the only reason it is climbing today is due to the euro/pound meltdown. As for Goldman, they don’t survive this cycle. No way.

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  25. j

    Greece has no choice but to rape itself because they cannot devalue their currency, since it’s not really their own (euro). Essentially, they have no control over monetary policy. Their choices are simple: default or implement severe spending cuts, which will most certainly lead to gripping deflation. As such, the deflation cycle will increase the debt burden. The most likely scenario, in my opinion, is Greece dropping the Euro and printing away like a little midget Bernanke.

    Actually if they were to follow an inflation option their best bet would be to hang in the Euro as the ECB is following an inflationary policy right now. If Greece dropped out they couldn’t just devalue as the market would take the new currency down to zero is a few seconds.

    Their best bet is to take the austerity, shoot a few of the protesters and then hope like blazes Germany won’t exit.

    The ECB has also said they will take Greek collateral on their books to unlimited amounts. This basically means their prepared to go with inflation.

    Buy German REITS as Germany is now the most under-leveraged country in the industrialized world and ECB policy will cause a boom there as in France.

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    • Jakegint

      Nice call!

      I know the REIT market, but don’t know many German ones… suggestions?

      ______

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      • j

        jake:

        Dunno that market. The only thing I know about Germany is that they started two fucking wars and lost both. Asking me about REITS is going a bit far me thinks 🙂

        I’m trying to research it.

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        • Yogi & Boo Boo
          Yogi & Boo Boo

          j – nice call on the € yesterday (” sell after up 100 or 200″ ). I put EWG on my watchlist. It looks really ugly right now, but I can wait to buy.

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      • ronamatron

        http://www.fvreit.de

        No residential exposure, though.

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    • wilmer

      Stop it j. You are injecting way too much common sense into this scenario. It’s better to be all Denninger and shit since the world is going to end soon.

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  26. YaBollox

    People still think the Gov’t should spend whatever it needs on needed things, regardless of debt issues.

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  27. gsavli

    United Socialist States of America are just as fucked as European Socialist Union. Only the timing of shit hitting the fan will be slightly different.

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  28. Get Yer Paper

    The latest Bilderberg insider news leaks suggest that the IMF is lining up to become the new world treasury department. The insiders wish to continue the global recession for at least another year before they install the new IMF/world treasury.

    Under the IMF, there will be plans to decrease the value of all currencies in relation to the yuan, which will increase in value. This will serve to create exports again (our new “green” economy) from the US, and Chinese imports will pick up. The Chinese middle class will thrive due to this. This is the “spreading the wealth” plan coming from the central banker-owned UN that Obama is implementing.

    Once the Euro is decimated via debt defaults across Europe, next in line is the USA.

    Once the world treasury is created, a new world reserve currency will be in store. Not sure if the US dollar will remain the main currency, but whatever currency it ends up being, it will NOT be backed by precious metals (causing a major decline in gold/silver prices). It will be backed by carbon credits, instead. The carbon credit plan will further serve to “spread the wealth.”

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    • Jakegint

      Yeah, the fact that a new fiat paper is NOT backed by gold and silver will cause gold and silver to decline?

      Where’d you get your economics degree?

      Apex Tech?

      _______

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      • Mookie Shnooks
        Mookie Shnooks

        Not my opinion Jake. I read some very good sources. Google the news topics “world reserve currency” and “carbon credits” sometime and get self-educated. You are familiar with Cap and Trade, correct?

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        • Mookie Shnooks
          Mookie Shnooks

          I can always tell when my predictive posts are dead on because I get the paid-for flamers out of the woodwork, and then Cialis/Viagra spam or cautions of viruses right after I post… at least I know how to manipulate my tax dollars to help confirm my predictions.

          Thank you, whoever you are. You are doing your country a great service.

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          • Jakegint

            I think you need to have your tinfoil hat re-lined with lead.

            It’s obvious the radio waves are gettting through.

            ______

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    • Migrant Miguel
      Migrant Miguel

      Actually, it will be backed by bean burritos, sending my ConAgra stock (rosarita refried beans) THROUGH THE ROOF!

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    • j

      Where the fuck is bildergerg and why does this name always appear whenever there’s a down downdraft in the market with theories and shit about the IMF and dwarfs and piles of gold.

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      • Mookie Shnooks
        Mookie Shnooks

        Look, the sheep have come out to play 😉

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  35. xxxHuggieBearxxx
    xxxHuggieBearxxx

    GMXR tore my trachea out this morning and spit down and used it to apply a tournament around my ballzac.

    wtf

    The only position i bought where i didn’t pick up some puts to hedge and i get decimated.

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    • Dave

      GMXR has been on my watch list for new short positions, but I didn’t pull the trigger on it, unfortunately. Shorted some HGSI and PXP today though.

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      • Yogi & Boo Boo
        Yogi & Boo Boo

        What’s the short story?

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        • Dave

          On GMXR? Mainly, weak Z”-score and weak technicals. I spelled out slightly more elaborate short stories on the ones I actually shorted, HGSI and PXP, on my blog today.

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  36. Migrant Miguel
    Migrant Miguel

    Hey does anyone know where I can get some cheap viagra? GMXR punched my cock so hard I can’t get an erection anymore.

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  37. wilmer

    Mr. R.W. Pelican must have been recalled by His Popeness The Pope…..

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  38. Donovan

    You can add Minnesota to the list of states with budget problems. The state supreme court reversed the governor’s spending cuts he imposed via line item vetoes and their deficit went from 500M to 3.5B and now they only have a few days left in session to “fund the gap”.

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    • Jakegint

      I have an idiot liberal friend who greeted this news with glee, only because it will prevent Pawlenty from continuing his current 2012 Presidency campaign.

      Talk about cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face.

      ______

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  39. Hawaii Five0

    In the case that it may matter to some, I should let you know that all three of my trend following systems have given a signal today with the first being triggered last Friday and the last one today.

    I had anticipated these a bit and moved to cash on the 27th of April.

    Also, in case anyone missed it, the s&p just crossed the 38.2 Fib at 1151.81. If it closes below this line we may very well be headed for the 50 Fib at 1131.08.

    Good luck to all!

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  40. Yogi & Boo Boo
    Yogi & Boo Boo

    VXX – On the road to $30…

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  41. noodleboy

    if my pension was gon get cut, I’d want to burn down a bank too.

    put on the plasma fist and punch everything in sight

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  42. panamaorange

    Goldman’s 1.35 target on the euro should save their trading desk. It seems like an insane call, but that is exactly where the euro is going to rise to, at minimum.

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  43. Jakegint

    If you want some safe plays, refer to my page. Sorry I cannot post anew today, but the plays from my EGO post are as green as new grass today.

    _______

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  44. tradingnymph

    Fly’s VXX is doing so much better then SMN,FXP….interesting

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  45. Dayman

    Wow I was very wrong. What the fuck is going on?

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  46. bigmovingstock

    wow – 340+ down on djia

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  47. Teahouse On The Tracks
    Teahouse On The Tracks

    hmmmm, TLT is screaming ……Fly, you got out too early!

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  48. joe

    “That’s as funny as a margin call on Christmas.”

    That’s the funniest shit I ever heard…If only because I am intimately aware of such situation of long time ago:)

    I.ve told all of youse MOFO’s in here that the mighty $ is going to at least .84-85 and that the market could handle up to this point. The line is drawn in the sand now. If the .$ rallies further the market gest FUCKED.

    I started with 50% short in GDX again (last time i did this a few motnhs ago I made 9 points on it. I would love a 52 print on this fucker to not only load up but go LEH-like margin level short on this index.

    However, I believe we will be up 300 point from here by close of tom. I bought coupla calls that I will close eod tom.
    If playing 300 point runnup is your thing, go for it.
    We are walking a very tight rope here, if we don’t get some “credible” news from the EuZone over the weekend, it just might be over for the GS induced rally. Speaking of GS…does this selloff have to do with GS telling their servants, the FED, that they are in control? Who knows.

    “Let’s be honest, these sovereign debt issues are really bank issues,”

    This is brilliant…of all MOFO’s on internets who pretend to know what is going on and how to profit, you’d be the only person I would ever trust with my money! I just think that it would overwhelm you though:)

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  49. Ross Jacobs

    I like what Joe has in mind here — sounds about right

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  50. bigmovingstock

    am i seeing shit or is that -940 I just saw?!?!?!?!?!

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  51. Teahouse On The Tracks
    Teahouse On The Tracks

    Fly is buying hand over fist no doubt ….. .68 fib retrace on s&p was 1107 and we hit what 1079?

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    • Richy

      I’m seeing the low as 1,065.79

      At one point Dow was down 1009 points?

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  52. Prospectus

    Fire and Brimstone, young man

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  53. Boost Sperm Volume

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