It is being reported that [[VALE]] is asking for a minor 114% price increase from its good paying customers for iron ore. Health care stocks rip to the upside, as the government takes over the fucking industry. And, commodity bulls dig in their heels, preparing for the inevitable $100 tomato.
The only thing we are missing is a little private equity boom, topped off with a horrendous natural disaster, that will send natty aka “nat vegas” soaring above $15. Quite frankly, I yearn for the days when my local utility was telling me to go fuck myself, vis a vis a monthly bill.
If you little trollops are looking for cheap stocks, take a gander at Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. [[BRCD]] and Adobe Systems Incorporated [[ADBE]] , both positions of mine (full disclosure).
As an aside, you must admit it is funny as a fiddle trapped inside of a falafel, seeing Marvell Technology Group Ltd. [[MRVL]] , Broadcom Corporation [[BRCM]] and SanDisk Corporation [[SNDK]] trade at these levels. God bless capitalism and all of its authoritarian discipline!
Despite my bearish demeanor, I have zero short positions and 30% of my assets tied up in longs. With my longs, at the moment, I like Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) [[TEVA]] , [[CBD]] , Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. [[BRCD]] , Adobe Systems Incorporated [[ADBE]] and [[MWW]] . However, ultimately, I will outmaneuver most of you, via my burgeoning [[VXX]] and [[TLT]] positions.
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Sir Fly reaction to the market melt up…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iqNocGJafk
This is Big Mike in action in this melt up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekYY18HQi7g
that was awesome
A solid blend of comedy and great info. “nat vegas” couldn’t be more true. Is it just me, or does anyone else feel like someone is behind the curtains having a good ol’ time taking people’s money in natty futures. The price action is wacky as fuck!
sugar down another 3%+
Splenda is UP 6%.
“Lachrymose,” up 82%
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You’ve made some great arguments as to why this market is going down – although I’m not sure how far down 700 Dow points, or 700 S&P points? But the key ingredients missing is timing and catalyst. Without them, you can be saying the same thing 18 months from now at Dow 15,000!
Just like everyone that has warned us about the impending bubble in the bond market since 2004, and those that called for the housing collapse in 2002 and were 6 years early and underperformed massively.
I would be more concerned if I was investing in illiquid assets, but stocks are not – unless you think we will wake up one morning and futures will be trading down 40%, and I don’t think you are.
Guessing at tops in bull markets is a dead man’s game.
Agreed
Dude, clearly you forgot that the Fly, calculator brain and all, has a time machine and is a space alien magician!
I am enjoying watching Scott in the mornings…glad you have him on your site here.
he is great
Yep. Enjoy him a lot. Great idea, having a video blogger.
I agree plus we know what to get him for Christmas- a razor.
OK, I’m going to shave right now!!!
Video blogging is a fad.
It may seem like a video blog, but it is not. It is the SIMULCAST of my morning radio show on “Radio Wall Street”.
I do the occasional video blog but it is and will be for members of my service and password protected. We have not pinned down the official schedule yet, but you are welcome to be “faddish” and attend if you so desire…
You say tomato.
Dow 12k, here we come.
Todays “Forty Point Rally Show” is being brought to you by Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, The New York Fed and Cambells Soup…mmm mmm good…Now lets return to the action
lol
Henry, your older picks, JSDA and DVAX are way up each today.
The Bow Tie Man aka Jim Rogers is adding shorts.
IMO, this story doesn’t end pretty. Fed induced rallies are nice while they last, but I think we all know the Fed isn’t going to take the blame for the aftermath. Maybe it will be the Chinese, refusing to purchase our debt and sending US debt below AAA status. Makes for a good pre-war setup, as well. Those are always profitable…
I used to be in brcd, but then I realized csco just kicks their ass all over the place, which is why they are cheap. Goes for jnpr too.
2006 – That would put us close to topping, possibly one more leg up away.
Folks, the gub’ment may be intentionally bolstering the market. It may unintentionally be doing so via cheap money to banks which then finds its way into the markets. However, its more likely that cheap money to banks is supporting the treasury market than the equity markets, isn’t it? Sit there and earn that spread, baby.
Charles Biderman of TrimTabs has suggested that it would take 500-800 billion dollars worth of new money coming into the US Equity markets to fuel the move that we’ve seen from the March 2009 lows. I think it was here that he said that: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zs8MLX8XNJ4
In all honesty coming up with that much money is not a challenge. What was short interest at the march bottoms? Kass has many times said it was at an all time record level. Alot of the names I was long a year ago had double-digit if not 20-30% short interest (ASH, RCL, ACAS, XL, GNW, ALD, DOW, HIG, BAC). The market as a whole must have had 5-10%. Today its presumably quite a bit lower, lets say 2-3%.
If some percentage of that short interest covered and converted to long positions (think hedgies going from 50/50 long/short or 40/60 to 60/40) and there is more than enough supply to, per Bidermans estimates, move the market this far.
The long slide from oct 2007 to fall 2008 shook alot of cash out. The post-lehman crash shook a whole lot of cash out. The freakish dump to the march bottoms from mid-feb shook a whole lot of cash out. A decent amount of the cash that was still in at the bottoms was perhaps buy and hold guys or people who just aren’t likely to sell.
I think alot of the market dynamic from the bottoms is a combination of the usual hedge-monkey swing-trading momentum-chasing stuff overlaid on a canvas of “nobody left to panic and sell out”. I just suggest that simpler explanations are possible. I don’t suggest that no rigging has occured, or that some has.
FYI
http://leduc998.wordpress.com/2010/03/23/flippe-floppe-flye-and-vxx/
Started out as a personal attack which in my years of Internet expertise, always leads to a flawed argument as the writer is biased from the first typed word.
Everything else was a nice “other side of the table” argument with charts but I think the facts used and such were only to prove the very first point.
Which is the old “this guy sucks, so listen to me.”
Typical Internet post. Which proves the point, Fly will probably be right on the VXX which is why this site is nicely designed and high speed while said other blogger is using a generic WordPress template with an unrelated image up top..
Showing the truth being the words… No money for a real website. A sign of a true nonprofessional.
Kinda like the douche bag claiming to be an expert but gives you a @yahoo or @gmail, etc for their business. Get a domain name slacker and at least…
FAKE IT TILL YOU MAKE IT
^^ yes!
You are correuct, there is a personal animosity of the most egregious and irrational manner involved there.
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Well shit, Duc’s still at it, ey?
Why don’t we just get him back ovah heah, give him back his tab (voting scandals taken off the record), so he can go head-to-head with The Fly?
Instant entertainment!!!
LOL. I can’t even get le M. Le Docteur de Le Fly to find the kindness in his heart to allow him to post on my blog.
We are talking Israel v. Palestine kind of animus here.
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Speaking of natural disasters…is Dr. Cane coming back to guest-blog the Hurricane Season??
Fly – what’s your take on the recent “theflyonthewall.com” ruling?
Seems like BS to me.
Didn’t The _Real_ Fly go through a similar scenario with Jim Cramer’s picks back in the day?
Owners of highly coveted/time sensitive information/data will always go to great lengths to protect their IP.
Money ” pouring into the market? or “rushing out” is an illusion. The corporate and Gov’t paper market is a relatively open system that can accomodate a lot of new money. In fact it does take a big inflow of new money to buy the paper.
The Stock Market is relatively closed system. Even on an up 140 pt Dow day, almost exacty the same amount of money left the market as came into the market. That’s also true in a +600 pt month.
Buyers=sellers in dollar amounts every day whether the market is up or down.
The leakage from the closed system is stock retired through buybacks, lbo takeouts to private, and IPOs new stock. That total has been very small and is normally quite small.
Enough so that just consider the market to be a closed loop. [unless one is in a period of frenetic buybacks or new IPOS-in which case…factor it in but only in appropriate degree as a % of total market $ trading in a day, week, month]
We hear the myth of money moving into the market….cash hordes awaiting entry to drive prices up etc so often, it’s one of the biggest misconceptions about the stock market.
Don’t get sucked into that kind of thinking because it’s not accurate and will lead to conclusions that are not valid or are less valid than thinking about it the way it is.
Prices go up or down because buyers and sellers agree on higher or lower prices.
That is determined by the return available on alternative investments but especially it’s determined by the relative levels of fear and greed present in the psychology prevalent in the mass of investors and traders.
Zero return on cash is not good competetion for stocks and higher valuations on stocks result as fear ebbs and is gradually replaced by greed.
That’s been the story of the last year and it remains so today.