Think again.
My mind works in mysterious ways. All day, I’ve been brainstorming/obsessing over the sudden and precipitous drop in the price of sugar and how it relates to the market. Traditionally, confectioners and beverage companies drive the price of sugar. More recently, due to “green initiatives,” sugar based ethanol has contributed to the price as well.
Sugar is now at 7 month lows, as shown by [[SGG]] . The drop is being attributed to a strong Brazilian crop, coupled with stiff reluctance from confectioners, The Hershey Company [[HSY]] , Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. [[TR]] etc. and beverage companies, PepsiCo, Inc. [[PEP]] , The Coca-Cola Company [[KO]] , Hansen Natural Corporation [[HANS]] , Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. [[DPS]] refusing to pay up for the sweet shit. My question to you is why?
It is a little known fact that national growth and strength coincide very nicely with beverage consumption. Has everyone, suddenly, decided to guzzle coffee, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] , instead?
The Important Matter of the Price of Sugar mystery is ongoing, by yours truly. More later.
Top picks: [[TLT]] , [[TAN]]
Could it be an invasion of a sugar substitute?
Bet Obama is shovin sugar up his ass so his shit don’t stink. He still has health care reform to deal with and politicians don’t like the smell of the bill.
You guys are obsessed with healthcare. God forbid my 1,400 per month piece of pay for nothing shit insurance changed, i would just die, like instant cancer death
Here’s a real problem with people who haven’t had enough economics and who as a result, vote for Marxists, thinking, “ah, what could go wrong?”
With Obamacare, the problem shifts from demand to supply.
$1,400 a month (I sympathize, that’s what we’re paying too, btw) may be an extraneous detail in the end, as the real question may be what happens when you can’t buy healthcare at ANY price?
I would suggest reading the entire string of “Alice” articles by Dr. Sowell.
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Oh, those gosh darn Marxists. Destroying “mahh kuntry.” If we could only KILL.THEM.ALL!!!!!! mwhahahahaha…
LOL. The Stalinists that run the show need the Marxists as opiates for the masses. Oh wait, we are in Afghanistan. Nevermind.
G.O.D. = Gold, Oil, and Drugs.
Jake is a fantastic gop postet child. Keep rooting for the “good guys.” they sure do know their economics. Hell, we’ve made it this far and everyone is doing just fine.
Please pass me my money with a cup if sugar.
Why thank you.
Yea Art, Laugher. Its laughable, funny and Mmmm Mmmmm Keynesian Trickle down the side of your leg good.
That’s the poorest “Marxist regret” post I’ve seen from you yet.
Buck up, son, you’ve three whole more years of this mistake to live down.
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Btw
If i had to do it again, id still vote obama over the old man and dog sledder. To think a goper would be better is simply delusional. All the same
Yep. The donkey taxes and spends and the GOP just spends. Don’t tell Jake that though. He will call you a black hat conspiracist or a Minnesota Fly who lives on a lake (your guess is as good as mine). BTW, that’s why I changed my handle to “Black Sombrero” in honor of Jake.
What was your old name?
Seriously, taking your straw man argument at face value (which I don’t but we need to make concessions to the simple), would you rather have high gov’t spending and high taxation or high gov’t spending and low taxation?
Granted, debt is a problem, but any good business can work with debt as long as it’s growing it’s revenues. The more private sector money is frittered via the public weal (ie, gov’t spending over 20% of GDP), however, the harder it will be to grow revenues, until we’re in a 40%-50% GDP gov’t spend death spiral like the Europeans.
The fucktarded “all the same” argument just reveals your longer term troubles with “the maths.”
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ROFL. How DARE YOU?! She’s a nice lady!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZH4h4etigo
President Bush said this whole market will come back higher than it was before eventually.
He’s probably right on that, but wow, what a mess along the way.
Did he have his flight suit on when he said this?
I think he was talking about Whole Foods Market, the new one in Midland, TX.
Going to be rebuilt on a higher elevation… out of the flood plain.
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There ya go. Keep digging deeper on the Obama vote.
That’s the spirit!
Only like… what? 34 months or something? Should pass like the wind.
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Boy do I yearn for the Bush days.
Sigh…. When budget deficits were only 2% of GDP instead of 15%.
Did you hear the latest? That your guy, Barry, is now trying to sneak-nationalize the college loan industry by folding it’s government takeover into his takeover of 1/6 of the economy in the Obamacare deal?
Give him one thing — when he steals, he steals big. Capone big.
34 more months of backdoor sneak thief shit like this. Can’t you wait?
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OUTRIGHT LIES
All of this bailout crap started with Bush. If we were graced with a 3rd term, he would be doing the same shit.
Who’s cheering on bailouts? And you know that’s not where the multitrillion budgets are coming from.
Bush said “no” to GM and Chrysler, btw. Those, and AIG, are the only bailouts that have yet to be paid back. You think maybe he’d be running gummint motors today like Barry? And trying to nationalize healthcare?
C’mon… all this economy needs is for gummint to STFU for twenty minutes, and we’d be well on our way. Instead it worries about planning for higher taxes, health care, cap & trade, card check unionism, etc, etc.
Useless squawking fugging chickens, with the economies balls in their hands.
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What happens when you jump off a bridge with a bunge cord strapped to you. Any inclination about this market.
Don’t concern yourself, Monsier Le Docteur de Le Fly, c’est but a Disco-ball Market, and we are ALL a-twirl within it!
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don’t most of the soda folks use high fructose corn syrup?
You’ve got pepsi and mtn dew classic out, but it’s not a huge share.
HANS released Monster “Import” with actual sugar. They were giving them out for free on Bourbon St last weekend.
You’re assuming they use actual sugar and not HFCS in their products.
Absutardly.
There was a thin veneer of “we use real cane sugar” painted on some of the yuppie bananified swill-treats they tried to sell to Monsieur at WFMI, but I think it went the way of “New Coke” and other cheap marketing trix.
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Damn. I have to make you fuckers look stupid too often.
Both KO and PEP sell “soda pop” with REAL SUGAR internationally. They shovel the HFCS down our throats only, to help out the pharma companies with their burgeoning cancer businesses.
If you didn’t know, KO does 70% of their sales over seas.
The Fly wins again.
(crickets)
They shovel the HFCS down our throats only, to help out the pharma companies with their burgeoning cancer businesses.
The Coca-Cola-Pfizah Gonnegtion!
I blame Warren Eugene Buffet.
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That whole HFCS thing is just evil
I really hate the Coke in the US because of the effect it has on the taste
So true… Here in Texas every grocery now has an aisle dedicated to Latin cuisine. And on that isle, low and hehold on the bottom shelf is Coca Cola made with real cane sugar. Apprarently in Mexico they prefer it to our pretend Cola. We are so fake as a nation. First, fake boobs and now fake cola. Where does it end?
Fake cancer?
Fake Toyota accelerations?
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Fake Steve Jobs?
BTW — I’m getting a tingle that we are going to get your “bottles of pop (sic)*” economic thesis enwrapped in another wrapper.
Along with a rapper video.
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* So sue me, mofos call soda “pop” out here, Richie Cunningham-style.
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thought so, bitch.
Thought what?
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exactly
Why take the argumentative stroll down the hershey highway with tootsie rolls in hand when it’s always a matter of supply and demand?
HSY is for Fudge Packers…..
——-The Fly 2007
You guys crack me up when you start getting pissy with each other.
Don’t know about you, but I like a heaping teaspoon of sugar in my coffee…
It is simply correcting the overshoot to the upside and the new FLA. environment bill that keeps sugar cheap…
The Fly says that real men drink their coffee black, and that sugar is for pussies.
Most manipulated ag product in the US sector.
Those Cubano sugar famblies got some pull.
Who’s the author… Carl somebody?
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A billionaire Cuban sugar baron was just robbed for $45K of jewelry.
sweet
good one
Wonder if he knows Chivas?
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Sugared coffee and all those Hazelnut/Vanilla/Amaretto flavored coffees are sin.
A waitress once asked Uncle Mel how he liked his coffee, to which Uncle Mel replied ” I like my coffee just like my women, Hot, Black and Strong. I don’t remember what the waitress said but I do remember her face turning about 10 shades of red.
always avoiding the spider, Fly…I like it.
I started drinking my coffee black….sorry
I think BG decided it wanted out of ferts and into sugar ethanol, ramped the sugar market, scooped up a distressed producer who could not handle the sugar/pertol ratio, and is now letting it go. C’mon, BG knew what sugar supply would look like in 2010…
No one has the illusion that the average consumer’s balance sheet is flawless and spending will be back to 2007 levels. Sane people don’t think that there will be a V-shaped recovery in housing prices – in some regions of the country, it will take years for the supply/demand disbalance to be solved. With that said, sometimes the stock market doesn’t care about the economy and it often goes in the direction that will surprise negatively the most people. 4 weeks ago the majority thought that Armagedon is coming back. It didn’t happen. Today, the absolute majority expects strong 8 weeks ahead, pointing the inflow of money into big cap stocks. I have to admit that I am in this camp despite my huge cash position. Those who are not all in currently, expect a slight dip due to the fact that many stocks are overextended. Many think that that eventual dip will be bought and many actually expect it in order to enter. Will the market surprise everyone again?
SNMX=sugar alternative.
$$ getting pummeled again in AH.
Your sugar trade is secure for another night!
(sigh of relief).
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Already? You really put a lot of thought into that dollar down trade. I hope it worx out for yoo.
Trend following is not rocket science. And no need for “hope…”.
It’s already worked out.
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But past performance is not indicative of future results, at least what my pick up truck mechanic tells me. he-he-he-he (awkward pause) he-he.
He just ordered my new text-book.
Trend Trading for Grease Monkies
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You truly entertain me, Mr. Fly. (And I know you will loathe this comment.)
dude…this is a no brainer, and something that still is going to take hard core commodity bulls a while to sink in. The world will NOT stand for commodity pain. It aint gonna happen. I commend those big boy chocolate folks for not paying the prices asked. What a scam. Mystery solved? sheesh.
Tell that to the sugar barons from india
COT for the sugar drop.
Is sugar cane easy to grow? If so could the poor indians have grown lots after the tsunami?
Sugar’s eternal problem is oversupply. Easy to grow, easy to gummint subsidize. Both factors create massive oversupply (thanks also to subsitution).
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high fructose corn syrup is an alternative to sugar, therfore its being used more now maybe
HFCS not enough, it must be GM as well, for the full “conspiracy F-ect”
Go long MON and Denningerite Meerschaums.
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Yes it is merck’s fault. All of it.
Its all about r n d , as you know. Without 70% margins, hell, they would not be able to produce drugs that kill you on the spot with massive heart valve failure.
Ahhhh, the wonders of medicine.
In case you were wondering, most physicians hate the system more thab i do.
Duh, read that article I JUST sent you.
Read WHY the physicians hate the system.
Hint — It’s NOT because of the helpful gummint ALREADY hip deep involved with their business.
You like the government involvement in YOUR business?
Caution — I already know that answer, in weasel-lawyer-fashion.
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fly, anything to do with the fat taxes being propositioned?
I believe the sugar barons are predicting the END OF THE WORLD. We need a DENNINGER BLUE BLAZER event for this NEWZ.
I blame Castro.
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The over/under on the number of bolded and underlined words in his next post is 18. I will take the over.
Underlines are links, dink. Grandson just now taking you through the traps on the new large-type/ ultra-font computer?
({ Push}, down the elevator shaft with ye)
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This was in regards to Denninger. He likes to EMPHASIZE what he is SAYING. Can you get that through your GOLD-PLATED HEAD.
You’ll have to be more specific in future, especially when you refer to my posts, albeit inadvertantly. I don’t actually read anything of Karl’s, he’s just an amusing metaphor like Timmah and the other perma-bear nutters.
Gold plated head, out.
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Karl says Dow hits 6,489 and that’s a bull mkt. Silly Karl. Using that math and all. Do you dispute the magic card theory?
After all, when we are all dead, we will no longer require the simplistic luxuries of sugar. Am I wrong?
I prefer to mainline my sugar intake for that extra added boost. Only organic sugar tho…..
Dropping like fly’s.
You are presuming the market isnt being manipulated. Big mistake
The typical American will never resort back to “real” sugar. People would become even fatter.
Nobody listens…Food Inc. = awesome movie, was a disaster at the box office, Oscar fail. You are right though, grand government, corn grower, pharma conspiracy playing out.
Sweet av.
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Blame me.
It happened without any real planning. But on Ash Wednesday, the beginning of Lent, I discovered there was no soda left in the fridge. I decided then and there to give up all sodas and their sweet sugary delights for the next 40 days…
You must be of stronger gristle than the Moober.
(Famed fast-breaker and multiple sinner)
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Indeed, desperately in need of grace and mercy. Thankfully, someone else was obedient in my stead.
That applies equally to all.
How does warren buffet make investing in stocks so simple.
I have never seen Warren Buffett post a real time trade. I think he’s making it all up with hindsight as his friend.
That’s what Ducati says, too.
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Your premiums will continue to increase until you you can’t or won’t pay them anymore. Either we cut off people from getting quadruple bypass and transplants at some age (I think 65 is a good number) or we go broke keeping 72 million baby boomers alive for a few more years.
There needs to be push for health savings accounts. Just think about paying $100,000 in premiums throughout your life and then having to drop the insurance because you can’t afford it. Costs will be even higher under Obamacare.
I’m self insuring. When I need some work done, I’ll go to India.
HSA’s, major cat policies, scaling caps.
You are right on. The easier solution to your last, however, would be to address the supply problem by bringing the Indians here.
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They are already here in droves.
I have carried my own policy for about 25 years now.
Under the terms I can’t be cancelled for any reason, there is no lifetime cap, can see any Doc or go to any hospital without prior approval but it has a $10,000 deductible per illness for a two year period.
They don’t sell it anymore and in fact offered me some $$ a number of years ago to drop it.
This year I pay $302 a month premium (Jake knows my age).
Over the years I have had two cataract operations and a hernia operation.
Of course they were each under the $10,000 deductible but I negotiated a price for each with the Docs and the Hospitals since I know how the game is played (I used to represent a number of them years ago).
I got a 40-60% discount off what they first quoted me.
It’s like shopping for a car.
You are my freaking hero, TC.
But then you know that.
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It “pays” to be over 47.5.
All seriousness, God forbid they look at stuff that works. But they don’t care about that, because they know that socialization, empirically, does not work.
But they think (short sightedly) that they will have us by the balls if they crunch it through, so off they go.
It’s breath-taking.
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As long as MRK can keep the divvy at 4%, everything is kickass. I know.
LOL. So it’s Merck’s fault now?
Do they owe someone free drugs?
Maybe you guys can pair up? You give some free trades with their free drugs?
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This is the article about the looming supply problem.
Smart guys are gonna say… why bother?
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My bad, healthcare article.
I thought you were off the government dick and back onto the money tit.
Let me know when you want to battle coffee again.
I love all commodities, some more than others.
I love sugar less, after noting your article, however. As I said, sugar is ridiculously manipulated/regulated/tariffed up, etc.
Not a good proxy for other commodes.
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Well, do yourself a favor and read the report posted in PPT. Poof! supply problem resolved.
Then again, research is for dumb guys like me. Stick to the charts.
Your comment on whom research is “for” nothwithstanding, my article is about the (U.S.) supply of physicians, not the supply of sugar.
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adding shit to our food making us very very very complacent?
And recalcitrant.
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And truculent.
An’ Fittty Cent.
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How can anyone buy into this market right now? Anyone who looks at a chart of say, RUT, and thinks “wow, I’m going to buy here, the odds are totally in my favor” should be behind glass with all kinds of bullshit wires connected to their scrotum, etc. Even if you don’t like charts, what is there fundamentally, considering the type of businesses you find in the RUT are like mom & pop pizzerias and dry-cleaners that finance their operating costs with cash advances on their Discover cards. But don’t mind that, just keep buying your Dutch tulips, I mean bullshit stocks. I’d say there’s a good chance we’ll never have another down day, ever.
Really…could we get more overbought maybe? I think Helen Keller would have gotten the message by now and start shorting and / or, employ perspicatious put purchases.
very good, but “c” instead of that last “t” in perspicacious.
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Thanks for looking it up for me…
LOL. Do a search on my blog, Hamlet.
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$1400/month for health care? $300/month including a $10K deductable?
Holy fuck!
He has a family plan, and he lives in “High Death Area” NYC.
I blame the careless middle aged gindaloons they keep finding in the backs of Caddy trunks and area freezers.
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