| Market Overview | ||
| Avg Technical Score: | 1.28 | Strong Sell |
| Avg Fundamental Score: | 3.30 | Buy |
| Avg Hybrid Score: | 2.15 | (oversold) |
The above is a little “Christmas come early” from “Santa Fly” to you, courtesy of The PPT (yes, it nailed today’s dip). Fuck off with your Doomsday Dubai news. I care so much about the Dubai news, I slept in. As a matter of fact, right after this post, I am going to roam around my house eating a fucking turkey leg. You little bastards can worry about Dubai and everyone else, I’ll be downstairs playing with my new Keurig device, made by the Godly folks at Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] .
Be well.
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Good call on Wednesday Fly with Admin….I Have a Dream V.King 1:03
Enjoying a Timothy’s extra bold from my Costco purchased Keurig as we speak.
This Dubai shyt ain’t over kid.
have to admit i enjoy a little gloom and doom…its good for the soul
FIG!!
*Fed now has Art Cashin on “speed dial.”
*JPM, BAC consider yanking credit lines to Dubai. Definitely request more capital to be used as collateral. (As per corporate standard operating procedures and “process”.)
*Dubai goes to Citi for credit lines. Pandit says fuck it, no problem. We are backed by the US taxpayer. Issues credit lines with lower interest and less collateral than JPM or BAC require. Proceeds to send email to internal employees to try and unload more MBS to the Fed to “cover ass” on balance sheet and cash flow statement. Allows him to say he is trying his best in these turbulent and uncertain times to meet capital requirements and still “capture business”. Then relaxes with family and gets drunk today. Could give a shit about anyone.
* Dubai now backed by US taxpayer.
*GS considers implications to commercial paper and any security with ties to dubai and trades accordingly.
What is commercial paper doing today?
The trade?
A lot of interesting plays.
For US equities,
*Consider that Dubai makes plans to influence OPEC as raising the price of oil is the easiest way to get out of hoc.
Consider building position in XOM in the near future. Getting long and writing covered calls “trading around” the market fuckery.
Possibly short any construction/consulting company with lots of business tied to Dubai. (they love to build shit.)They probably won’t get paid and bond holders proceed to dig in heels.
If Dubai has implications as big as Lehman. (certainly possible. Everyone trying to figure that one out.)
Fuck. By a shotgun, stockpile food and gold, hit the sell button and get short. (I say this tongue in cheek)
Watch oil, DXY, commercial paper, bonds, and banks as “bellweathers” as Dubai fuckery unfolds in coming weeks/months.
Trade accordingly.
It’s all vegas and bouncers are on the take.
I will continue buying until DOW 18,000. Then I’m out.
Just keeping it simple.
do you write soap operas for a living?
Fly, it would be interesting to see how the oversold indicator performs when it is accompanied by a significant spike in VIX as it did today. Something tells me the oversold momentum may continue on Monday because of the spike.
My shorts have been working like a charm, even though I have been blasted on this board for going short, what someone last week called “rockets”
Currently short LVS, BAC, TOL, MAR, SPY. Also own puts on RTH
People blast you because you keep fighting the trend
No one expects you not to have a good day from time to time
Eat a leg of raw turkey or drink too much GMCR coffee dar bud , what fucking trend ? The SPX is lower than it was a month ago , as for the RUT or banking index. Seriously you should try a little TA before gloating about the bullish trend or stay on the couch eating turkey drummers , drinking bud watching the cars make a left turn in da Nascar.
We are in consolidation mode pushing for higher levels which we would have today if it wasn’t for Dubai. That could change anytime but that’s the way it is today.
Tmoe has been shorting this market for 8 months now and judging from your comment, your moronic ass has been doing the same.
When have any of you sheeple posted any of your positions on this board or made a call on market direction. i have admitted serval times that I have been wrong and have taken some ass whippings. I don’t always short the market. I always have short postions on certain names.
Good Job
Wrong Moe. No one blasts you for going short at all. I blast you for talking shit. And By the way, as far as the indexes you were telling us to go short when the market was 10,000. You were wrong.
You left out the GE short you said you had by the way.
isn’t talking shit what this board is all about? Eat a dick j and keep sucking on the propagana machines ass.
you’re right i did leave out GE by accident. GE goes to $12 and I will hold the short all the way to $12 unless moron buyers push it to $17 then I’m out with a small loss. no big deal I have a good size cash postion and some longs that have kept me in the game.
What are your holdings j?
Word Messier Fly.
Dubai credit woes were a foregone conclusion as far back as this time last year. Abu Dhabi and others will end up buying up all their grandiose projects.
Dubai = Las Vegas Middle East (plastic)
I am starting a new fund called “eightequalsequalsequalsgreaterthan” that will invest in Dubai. We might also yank off an entity in the future named “eightequalsequalsequalsgreaterthantilda” in the future.
PS: This post was made specifically on this blog considering the “caliber” of the folks that read it. If you dont get it you should probably stop visiting this blog.
I have a 25% GP stake in “threeequalsequalsequalsequalsD”
Just 12 hours ago you were calling the Dubai Debacle a “calamity.”
Of course you slept in, you were up most of the night swearing like the good old days.
single shot coffee is not only gay, but environmentally stupid ….. I refuse to take part in such a fad … that said, I bought a 1/4 GMCR position @ 63.3 and may add to that and try to profit from aforementioned gay coffee sippers.
Folger’s Columbian in a 10-cup Mr Coffeee (unwashed)
Community dark roast in a 12-cup Braun… also unwashed. Stripped down standard Braun, nothing but an on off switch on this bitch. I don’t need no stinking automatic timer. That’s what the wife is for.
Oh and the big ass 3-cup mug gets washed once a week whether it needs it or not.
I hear ya Gen and Po! What is up with this sissified single cup shit? Who only drinks ONE cup of fucking coffee? I think the Fly has been ingesting ESTROGEN. FUCK.
And why wash it? That just washes away the FLAVOR. It’ll put hair on your chest, BOYEEEEEE.
We lost him when he went to that illy sheeit.
I’m guessing your perky man-boobs thesis has some merit to it…
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lavazza espresso dark roast in a standard drip coffee maker. Can’t beat it.
I’m down with that, Po Pimp.
Community coffee as a true Cajun I love it
ILLY or any other decent whole bean, french press, chomping cigar, and my favorite mug:
http://cgi.ebay.com/nwt-STARBUCKS-EXTREME-CARABINER-RED-TUMBLER-16-oz-2005_W0QQitemZ200410740971QQcmdZViewItemQQptZLH_DefaultDomain_0?hash=item2ea96938eb
As a resident of Dubai (DXB) and long time follower of this site since early 2009, I feel compelled to throw in my 2 cents.
In my personal view the move to release the various press releases etc on Wed afternoon local time, yesterday and today is all part of an orchestrated move to sort out this situation.
At 2:01 pm local time on Wednesday (equity mkts close @ 2pm) an announcement came through on Bloomberg regarding the long awaited second tranche of the USD20bln total bond program to be issued by Dubai Dept of Finance (basically the new DXB sovereign bond); in addition to the USD 10bln that had been subscribed in the past couple months by the UAE Central Bank (the Federal Govt). The announcement Wed was that two local banks NBAD (70% owned by Abu Dhabi Investment Authority) and Al Hilal Bank (100% owned by Sheikh Mansour of Abu Dhabi) subscribed for USD5bln of the bond program, with only USD1bln being paid at the time of subscription.
Myself and many of the other traders at my firm frantically called FI desks to look for Nakheel 2009 or Nakheel 2011 bonds as the above press release is/was very positive for Nakheel paper which was still trading at a slight discount to similar issues, not a single bank/broker had any inventory, including all the local and foreign banks we deal with and they were all seeing heavy bid.
2 hours after that initial press release, the statement that has caused ripples across the global financial markets was made, Nakheel 2011 bonds which were bid well over 92 with NO offer, fell of a cliff to trade around 50-60; I got calls back from every single broker I had spoken with 2 hours earlier. These bonds traded around 42-45 today.
The last piece of information that came out was statement today, with the key piece of information in my mind being that “statements will be made early next week to clarify our position”.
I’ve lived in Dubai for over 3 years and the region for over 20, I see no way that a “Dubai Default” would occur; the way I see it is that over the past 3 months this Nakheel paper (guaranteed by the parent Dubai World) got bid and bought heavily by Foreign Institutions in the crazy “carry trade” going on, Dubai World isnt/wasnt looking to fully repay these bonds in December (or more specifically Abu Dhabi would’nt allow them to do that with the funds they were given) so they dealt with the situation the same way any sophisticated US corporate would…. They put out a very strong statement to the press (SELL the bond into the buyers) then shortly put out a negative statement (BUY the bond heavily at a HUGE discount)… early next week between their previous holdings and what they absorbed in the market in the past 72 hours, they will be comfortable enough to ask for a “voluntary” rescheduling, knowing very well that they hold enough directly and through local banks institutions that might be forced to side with them, to make the voluntary rescheduling go through.
While I realize this may seem contrived and a bit of a “conspiracy theory” I’ve lived here for a while and I know how they think, furthermore I know that what the world thinks is happening here (a default) would NEVER happen without them exhausting every single possibility, and we’re simply not at that point. The masterminds behind Dubai are too smart to let something like this happen.
I think Monday after 2pm local time, when equity markets have just closed, we’ll see clarity from Dubai World / Dubai Govt that will clarify this and the Dubai/Turkey day madness will soon be a thing of the past.
I wouldn’t bet the bank on it, but in my view this is a great buying opportunity in US mkts, but even more in Dubai mkts on Monday when we re-open after a long holiday.
dxbtrader – good stuff. please comment more often!
Keep us infidels posted.
it is in my conspiratorial nature to suggest that Dubai Inv was informed by the Dubai government, that their default would be announced into the thin US market holiday & that they should short the be-Mohammed out of global markets, thereby covering the default amount. iow, crisis announced & crisis solved in one fell swoop.
Tell me I’m wrong, dxbtrader.
Juicyfruit,
I wouldnt put it past them, more specifically some of the largest US and foreign consultants have been brought in to Dubai since earlier this year to advise on a variety of re-structuring practices taking place; In my view it would be more probable that they got that kind of advice from foreign consultants (the local government wouldnt think of something like that).
But I do think its a bit of a stretch that they anticipated the global sell-off that took place and took a significant position into it, in my mind thats more HF/smart money hyping it to buy into the massive sell-off we saw at the tail end of the week. I do strongly believe that they were buying the bonds though, its the smart move to make AND they just raised $11bln in the past 3 months so they do have cash.
“Nakheel 2011 bonds which were bid well over 92 with NO offer”
But, if your speculation is correct, why wouldn’t agents of the contrivers have sold into those high offers?
Purdy,
All these bonds are traded OTC, none are traded via any electronic exchanges, so you literally have to pick up the phone, call the FI desk at one of the local or international banks that trade them and ask for an updated level, Barclays is one of the largest books in this region and usually do the most turnover. So when I say no offer I mean neither the books at any of the banks I spoke with or the clients of these banks were willing to sell. Its very possible that they already had open orders that got taken out when the bid rose, or that I simply didnt get in touch with the brokers dealing for them until they’d sold already.
Monday will be a very interesting day for us in the local/regional markets…..
Thanks, hope to see you post an update on Monday.
TIM’s decided to stop stating any actual trades or position sizes – translated for you in bold
‘I have a number of reasons for doing this. The principal reason is that, for my supporters, how many positions I have or how much I’ve made or lost doesn’t add any value for them ‘they might figure out I have no idea what I’m doing’; and for my detractors (which consists of one particular unlikeable moron with almost no readers, no life, and no ethics)‘he makes fun of me’, it provides fodder for derision. ‘
Wow, he seems a bit miffed. I don’t like it when he’s miffed; it’s so unbecoming. Just yesterday the guy was about to spunk all over his computer as the ES futures were plummeting. I’m sure he made some coin today, but probably not nearly as much as he was expecting.
As it was a short trading day he probably didn’t have enough time to close out all 200+ short positions. He’ll get whacked and whacked hard on Monday when the Dubai mess is no longer the big story and everyone starts to focus on the true American patriots out there spending money they don’t have on crap they don’t need.
We should erect a commemorative statue (like the one memorializing Iwo Jima) in honor of the almighty American consumer. It could be a bunch of people in a mad frenzy, credit cards drawn, making a mad dash to the cash register… completely loaded down with senseless crap.
Oh dear…
Today is a very exciting day, but – irony of ironies – I’m going to spend most of it traveling
If the market gaps up big on Monday, we might get treated to another post about how Goldman Sachs slashed the tires on his car, or how GS stinkholed his high school sweet heart, etc.
Then again, we’ll probably get something about how he closed all 200+ short positions at the opening bell Friday for maximum profit.
LOL,
Great stuff there…
lmao…
who’s making fun of him.
I can’t be this site can it, I haven’t read a word in weeks on that sack.
His followers aren’t going to figure a thing out, they are the types that believe in unicorns and divine intervention. To them the attraction of constantly being bearish provides a built in excuse for why they’ve never lived up top their potential (not that I believe most of those slobbering half-wits have much potential). I suppose everybody needs a God, mine just doesn’t take the form of a misanthropic fatty with a sense of humor best suited to that weird Uncle that everybody avoids.
And while we are at it, how sad was it to see some of these nitwits pull out the Black Swan terminology when the futures were down 20 points. Here’s a clue guys, it’s not a Black Swan every time we get a little negative news over the weekend or holiday so either read the book or STFU.
Indeud. It seems the Internet has actually produced a new species of public market participant. I guess in the old days these guys would be the odd lot short sale bunch. It would be understandable in the pre-internet days that a lack of information would produce amateur participants that would be wrong most of the time. I would not expect that almost unlimited access to good and very cheap information would produce market participants that are so ill equipped to do battle with those that will take their coin. Unless of course, they are all talk and no coin, which would explain their ability to hold large losing positions for extended periods of time.
Tim seems more concerned about being ‘right’ or finally trying to ‘defeat’ the bulls than actually making money. He has been looking at the market one-sided for the past 8 months. He takes it as a personal attack if someone suggest that maybe, just maybe, we continue going up. He has turned trading into a good vs evil type thing where the bear’s side is right and the bull’s side is wrong. Hopefully when/if we get a good correction he takes his profits and re-evaluates his trading strategy.
Dubai debt triggers investor panic
http://english.aljazeera.net/business/2009/11/20091126103029690634.html
What world has this guy been living in?
“But I think that when the dust has settled it will be possible for Dubai to put together a credible restructing plan and, slowly, it will be able to go back to its strategy. Which I think is the right one – to diversify away from oil towards tourism and a financial and trading centre. Those are the strengths.”
Dubai hasn’t produced any oil in friggin’ ages.
Exactly… a common misconception is that dubai got oil. Unlike its neighbors Dubai got no oil.
What dubai got most is debt and megalomania.
No doubt they will prop this crap up until the cows come home.
Dubai defaulted on their debt, after building a “Manhattan in the desert”, it seemed goofy then, and it seems even more goofy now.
This scene is completely gay.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Von-xpDly0U&feature=related
Maybe people jsut had to sell some stocks, ES futures, oil and gold to pay for turkey?
The glass completely empty side…
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1669-A-Sober-Reminder-On-Black-Friday.html
Denninger is a fraud. Ask him how the Golden Cross is working out for him.
But WAIT!!!
Don’t let the zombies eat your brains while you are there!
Nice. I forgot all about the Golden Cross call. Excellent win Woodshedder!!!
Sorry about the development delay… always risky trying to get a post off one a holiday return day.
Still managed to sell some more PM’s before getting on board, however….
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Dubai ruined our holiday on purpose…they hate Thanksgiving cause we celebrate our capitalist ways..ayn rand would agree – and she thinks your buildings are ugly..
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/21/business/global/21yen.html?pagewanted=all
So Dubai tought us that world markets are still on the edge of their seats. The possible 80 billion default of Dubai World caused world markets to tumble 3.5%. Imagine for a moment what a default in Japan would do. Or even the thought of default!
Im no doom and glooomer, but Japan is not looking good.
All potential bad news means is: longer-lived liquidity …and more buying of real assets. For now – in this market – bad is good.
Japan got engineers, designers, factories, universities, a fairly balanced economy and society, etc…
dubai got nothing. create nothing. it’s an empty service economy. a trade hub where people take their cut.
Nothing wrong with being a trading hub. Singapore has one of the strongest economies in the world on the strength of their mercantile acumen, alone. Same true of Hong Kong, pre-reabsorption.
What defines strength in an economy is it’s ability to withstand various economic shocks thanks to flexibility of participation and (as a consequence of that flexibility) access to liquidity.
Japan’s biggest problem is an ever increasing lack of flexibility, which leaves it further exposed to the risks attendant to it’s long term dependence on global export.
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Singapore also has the most liberal immigration policies currently related to entrepreneurs and scientists/engineers. They are trying to go from a trading hub to an innovation hub in the shortest time possible.
We are squandering our natural attractiveness in that regard. This used to be a place entrepreneurs fled to…. as we morph into Euro-lite (or heavy, in some cases), that competitive advantage will disappear.
Soon we will be like Canada, offering citizenship for cash bounties.
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I couldn’t agree with you more in this regard.
GS extemely oversold as o
My cat just sprayed diarrhea all over my desk and papers. Didn’t get the monitor or keyboard though. Fuck.
TMI!!
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Turkey isnt sitting well..
if we get a pullback….im going long 50 percent ewz, 10 % ibm, 10 % intel, and 10% berkshire as my i love america play.