As you know by now, “The Fly” is roaming his office in a long cape, similar to the one seen in the epic movie “The Count of Monte Cristo.” Now, you might ponder to yourself: “Why the fuck is Fly roaming around in a cape?”
My answer to you, as always, is “shut the fuck up, you stupid bastard. Get me a cup of tea, 2 lumps, heavy creme, no butter, thanks.”
There is a certain level of professionalism, demonstrated on this website, that cannot be duplicated elsewhere. Had you followed my sage advice, over the last 2 weeks, you would have went bananas, but richly rewarded. I have played along with this tape, via long and short positions, better than any known man in the history of investing, scientifically of course.
At the present, my only meaningful short positions are in DUG/ERY. My longs stretch for miles, in various Chinese related names; and they make me happy.
See folks, “The Fly” aka Senor Tropicana aka Plutonium Petey aka HORATIO CLAWHAMMER is all about bowling on stupid bastards who bet against him. I’m too fast for you slow gun grabbing goat ball lickers. It’s like playing baseball against a team of retards, almost.
Anyway, into this circle jerk of optimism, I might (it’s still very early) sell some of my longs, which includes FXI, CHL, MT, JRJC, YZC and BUCY, in order to enter the weekend with totalitarian dominion over this market and, yes indeud [sic], the financial blogosphere.
Never forget, you other bloggers are like little fish getting a free ride on my fucking fins. Keep fucking with me and I’ll bite your stupid heads off.
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GS hit the wall
FIG
Covered my HIG short under $11.5. Shorted a little BAC above $5.7. Sold some BGU and TNA. Trying to get to 75% cash by close.
I would not be surprised to see a massive reverse and close in the red. I don’t trust bullish opens especially ahead of such an important Monday.
Your Count of Monte Cristo cape link didn’t work. But I think you meant one of these two-tiered dealios, yes?
________
BOOM!
it works. Quit lying.
Grabbed some FXP calls to hedge Master Fly.
The Fly is God
anyone have any news I’m not getting on ESLR to why it is down 14% other than earnings yesterday?
Stop taking the Lords name in vain…or rot in hell, Zombie.
Didn’t HIG just say everything is great like a few weeks ago?
I swear, these lying cocksuckers should be swinging from lamp posts.
TMOE, for the record, my number is 4.35 on BAC. Apologies for the typo.
Check the boards yesterday, that’s my price. J saw me mention it in real time as well.
ESLR also got downgraded by The Piper.
Trust no one when it comes to money.
Bennet Sedacca
09:14:11 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Mark to Market Comments
I see the bad news and I see the reaction in futures the past couple of days. I have to admit that I am still void of stocks after a couple of brief forays (some good, some not-so-good) into stocks.
I keep hearing that a change in ‘mark-to-market’ rules may change and will help things.
I hate to break the news but Moody’s and S&P have already downgraded 9,000 Alt A tranches this week alone, and this will lead to many tranches not paying (many went to CCC or D) and hence, becoming impaired and have to get marked down anyway. Then, yesterday, Moody’s put $302 BILLION of Senior CMBS on watch negative and expect 4 to 6 levels of downgrades.
Further, Moody’s said to expect 30% default rates in option ARM’s from 2006-2007 vintages.
Sooo.. unless jobs get recreated (I doubt that with ANY stimulus plan), those that are hoping for a rally and economic recovery based upon a change in ‘mark to market rules’ are dreaming.
Worse yet, I hear that the market is rallying due to the unemployment rate being not as bad as the ‘whisper number’. Oh no Mr. Bill, not whisper numbers again!!
Risks are high… Very very very high.
Is he in heaven is he in hell, that damned elusive Flyiswell
no that you turned bullish for more then 24 hours im sure well see some down side well as you would say im 25% short 75% cash
Fly, you have good taste in music, jam this shit.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyxzO5e5-aM
That Jim Cavaziel (sp?) version is my kids’ favorite. The other dude (on whom he extracts vengeance) is that great Canuck actor who was excellent in my favorite movie L.A. Confidential.
____________
What happened to the reply boxes? They don’t “hold” any more?
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Yes Phil
Saw you say that. I chewed a little and pulled the trigger a bit higher.
That’s the reason I stayed until 5 in the morn and never woke the wife for sex when I said earlier I was off and about to straddle her.
IF Moe wants proof , I can ask her to come on this site and say we didn’t have sex because I too bought some BAC. Not that she even knows what BAC is, who is fly and where the fuck i met phil and why I’m discussiing our sex habits on a web site.
Dude, seriously, do you not spell correctly and not use the apostrophe just to fuck with us or are you really an illegal alien?
Neal S
You know that Doc Sed has never had a position since I’ve have been reading the comments. I haven’t seen the guy pull the trigger in 8 months since I’ve become an avid fly reader.
who is the Doc?
But thanks for the post by the way.
I checked his IP. He really is an illegal Mexican.
Is this the beginning of the “monster move” in the market that Todd Harrison and that crazy scientist dude, Charles Nenner, are predicting will happen any day now?
Market goes higher on 598K job losses? WTF!
Is this the beginning of the “monster move” in the market that Todd Harrison and that crazy scientist dude, Charles Nenner, are predicting will happen any day now?
Market goes higher on 598K job losses? WTF!
Geeezzzzzus!! WOrd Press blows
In between Pajama-Gram, Video Prof and buy Gold ads, Howdy Doody – Morgan Stanley Head of Infrastructure Banking (LOL) tells Erin giddily : $1 Billion in infrastructure spending = 34,800 jobs. Not 35,000 — 34,000 fucking 800.
Apparently, government funded infrastructure is a distinct alternative asset class that must be ‘analyzed’ by government funded former investment banks.
J,
Where do you live Down Under? Sydney? (I lived in Ultimo, then the CBD in 2000).
no way. Not a monster move. Just a reflexive bounce.
Way to go, Fly.
Fly-
still long TS?
Bumped from previous:
Gov’t isn’t the answer- I would agree, but the reason the 30s sucked so badly was b/c Hoover and the boys did nothing for years, right?
Oy vey, another Santayana quote victim.
No, exactly wrong. Hoover was a micromanager that would’ve done Joe Stalin proud. He immediately raised taxes in the teeth of the initial recession and then signed the Smoot Hawley Tariff bill which basically shredded world trade at the exact worst personal time. Then the idiots at the Fed tightened money for the trifecta.
Gov’t is ALWAYS the problem in exacerbating recessions into Depression and the fools with the purse are now doing it again.
_______________
x
Melbourne, Phil.
There are too many banking wankers who think they’re fabulous up in Sydney 🙂
So you lived in Ultimo, hey?
I lived in Neutral Bay when i was up there in the 80’s before NYC.
Beautiful city though. Sydney’s great like that and the best thing about Sydney is that you never feel under dressed as there’s always someone worst dressed- wearing boad shorts and a tank top at the Opera.
You gotta love these Master degree asshats on CNBC that try to be all proper everyday and consistently leave sentences with the preposition “at” hanging off the end…..
What does DevilDog think of the action in $TRAN?
Phil from Brazil sez:
The problem with America is they sell nothing real. The only thing they really sell is US dollars. If the world stops buying these worthless US treasuries (a process which is slowly beginning as treasury yields reverse back higher), the US will be in deep shit. How’re they gonna plug the gap?
Oh, I don’t know, maybe by selling some IBM computers to the Central Bank of Brazil? Or some Oracle software? Or Caterpillar bulldozers so you can continue mining your natural resources?
Phil, try not to drink the lefty kool-aid with a fire hose. America “makes” plenty and at a MUCH higher value added point than most of your country’s economy. Capital is far more fluid here (at least until the socialists really get their teeth in) and people are paid, for the most part, for their intellectual value added, rather than their physical value added.
You guys are still 25-30 years behind on that, and you’re still strapped with a massively barbelled class structure that is almost feudal in nature (very very rich on one end, and unconscionably poor shack dwellers on the other). I’m not saying that you won’t get out of this state in the coming years, and grow your middle class by leaps and bounds, but to expect that you will somehow dodge a bullet that’s headed for the U.S.?
Sorry, that’s just not going to happen.
_________
Jake-
Exactly right on the post about the Government always being the problem.
I sold my little bit of FAS into the morning bounce. I am free of iETFs.
Look at the chart for DTO – POWERSHARES DB CRUDE.
This shit disgusts me when I look at that lost opportunity.
What does DevilDog think of the action in $TRAN?
Been trying to get an answer from him on that one for days.
Swing low and reversal looks like to me. And that 3150 line looks pretty damn significant as well.
___________
Here is an excellent commentary why the equally steep 1920-21 depression lasted about 18 months and why the 30’s one lasted a decade.
In short the 1920-21 depression was the last time the US practiced leave things alone.
http://www.brookesnews.com/092601obama1930s.html
Via PPT, Top 15 ranked “Chinese Burrito” stocks:
No. Ticker Tech. Fund. Hybrid Hybrid Change – Daily Hybrid Change – Weekly
1 CHL 3.05 4.53 3.67 14.33% 45.63%
2 SNDA 3.15 4.20 3.59 13.25% 44.18%
3 ASIA 2.90 4.50 3.57 24.83% 32.22%
4 YZC 2.25 5.27 3.52 -6.38% 29.00%
5 EJ 2.75 4.55 3.51 13.59% 46.25%
6 CMED 2.70 4.41 3.42 29.06% 44.92%
7 FUQI 2.35 4.70 3.33 20.22% 19.78%
8 SDTH 2.30 4.75 3.33 -2.35% 17.25%
9 SHI 3.25 3.40 3.32 11.41% 67.68%
10 NCTY 2.15 4.85 3.29 20.96% 21.40%
11 CHA 2.30 4.65 3.28 -0.61% 25.19%
12 HNP 3.35 3.20 3.28 26.15% 29.64%
13 NPD 2.20 4.77 3.28 9.33% 37.82%
14 SINA 2.30 4.40 3.18 7.07% 35.32%
15 GU 1.71 5.20 3.17 9.69% 26.29%
Dave
DEE too. What a run.
Breakout on BLK continues.
Jake,
I voted for Obama — decided to give the guy a shot. Let’s face it: McCain would’ve been even more disappointing.
But it’s really sad. Obama is letting his ass get pushed around by Pelosi and company. I laud him for trying to show his diplomatic skills, drawing both parties together to smoke a peace pipe and hold hands.
But this crisis is not a time to be singing Kumbaya. Obama must decide with his advisers what he wants on that bill and go sell it to the American people.
By sitting with every Congressman and his cousin and trying to get approval behind closed doors, he weakens his position as President.
Alexis Tocqueville once said: “democracy is the tyranny of the majority”. Not that I believe in Stalins, Vargas, Pinochets and Mussolinis, but sometimes, consensus-building weakens a cause.
At this moment, Obama needs to decide what he wants and do it. The longer the debate lingers on the more respect he loses on the Hill and the less confidence the American public have in him. Remember, these first 6 months are crucial. He needs to get as much shit done while he still has political carte blanche.
After that, he becomes mortal again. It’s when the political honeymoon ends that his diplomatic skills will be needed. Not now.
My hatred for GS grows and grows as it tears me a new asshole. The fucker is about to break 95. It is meeting some resistance there. If it breaks through then it is on to 100 much to my chagrin. However, 100-95 is where the whore was trading at the end of October right before its beat down.
I will continue to hold my shorts and might even add to them if its hits 100 and can’t break through.
Any asshat who says the USA does not manufacture anything is of course Dennis Kneale’s gay lover and like him (or behind him) is also an idiot……..
The USA makes tons of shit… I know, I visit plants all the time and am headed in 1 hour to Ohio to go to the V-Twin Expo where 90% of every company showing there wares are made here. And the 10% are only distributors selling imported parts, the rest are manufactered and made right here.
This one industry of thousands…. wake up people….
Since the vote on the obamarama comes after the close today they will keep the market from crashing today on “hope”. Therefor, the CRASH day is Monday which will be 6 – 10% breaking through S&P 800 like it was not even there. I can wait. I’m headed for the track to run the VIPER. Have a great weekend!
PPT Top Sector, Steel and Iron Rankings
No. Ticker Tech. Fund. Hybrid Hybrid Change – Daily Hybrid Change – Weekly
1 RIO 3.28 4.75 3.90 11.43% 45.52%
2 NUE 3.03 4.90 3.82 15.76% 40.44%
3 SCHN 3.13 4.71 3.80 15.85% 41.26%
4 TS 2.53 5.09 3.61 5.87% 33.21%
5 MT 2.58 4.90 3.56 5.95% 28.52%
6 GNA 2.58 4.90 3.56 9.88% 33.83%
7 CLF 2.43 4.97 3.50 -0.85% 34.62%
8 PKX 2.33 4.90 3.41 2.40% 35.86%
9 MTL 2.43 4.74 3.40 8.97% 18.06%
10 GGB 2.43 4.70 3.38 -0.88% 24.72%
11 IIIN 2.03 5.10 3.32 18.57% 25.28%
12 TX 2.18 4.90 3.32 -1.19% 14.88%
13 CPSL 2.23 4.80 3.31 24.91% 30.83%
14 SID 2.43 4.45 3.28 -2.67% 22.85%
15 STLD 2.33 4.45 3.22 2.55% 25.78%
16 RTP 2.13 4.70 3.21 -4.46% 21.13%
17 AKS 2.23 4.52 3.19 -1.24% 20.83%
18 ZEUS 1.93 4.90 3.18 2.58% 16.06%
19 WOR 2.08 4.40 3.06 20.47% 34.80%
20 SIM 1.93 4.60 3.05 2.69% 15.15%
21 HSC 2.13 4.26 3.03 -0.98% 22.67%
22 NWPX 1.93 4.40 2.97 15.56% 22.73%
23 HAYN 2.23 3.70 2.84 0.71% 24.02%
24 MEA 1.98 4.00 2.83 22.51% 31.02%
25 CRS 2.18 3.70 2.81 7.25% 24.34%
26 ROCK 1.58 4.49 2.81 7.66% 10.20%
27 CMC 1.93 3.19 2.46 -1.20% 37.43%
Interestingly, oil is getting finger-banged while banks, retailers, China stocks, and, yes, even oil stocks ignite the fuck higher.
This is one of the strangest tapes I’ve ever seen.
UPS ripping again. Prof — you shoulda stayed in on that nice call!
__________
DD, I have to leave in 30 min. did you see the link I posted earlier on the 8 subs the US just ordered from General Dynamics and Northup Grumman?
Marc Faber says “dire consequences” possible. P. Schiff says “unmitigated disaster”. Obama says “catastrophe” will happen. Who is right about the freakin humongous pork bill?
Poor FAZ, Yikes.
APWR is an interesting Chinese lotto ticket.
Technically, I guess you are never wrong if your statement remains “6% DOWN TOMORROW”
Nice call DEVILDOG.
Artist…are you sure we sell subs? Phil_from_brazil says USA does not sell anything real. Maybe they are fake subs? Or maybe Phil is talking out of his ass?
BAC… wow. Watch that turd fly. Now if Shaggy Geithner and Scooby O can just jack their psychedelic stimulus van into 5th gear, then maybe… just maybe… I can sell BAC at 6.43 without going into the weekend wondering whether my stock will be at zero or not come Monday.
Ah, the joys of Socialism.
Recovery indicators all UP.
Copper, grains, shipping, financials.
OIL has massive floating overhand to work through.
SHORTING is over for a few weeks
DXO could look the same way a few years down the road in a recovery. The volume is massive compared to DTO.
I don’t trust low volume stocks like DEE. One big holder can rip your balls off.
The airlines look like they’re due for a bounce. There won’t be a good reason for it, but it always seems to happen when they trade near or below resistance.
DevilDog, the market is a discounting mechanism, you can’t just run around saying, “Hey, I know the jobs number will suck balls on Friday, I’m calling 6% down!!” Think on it.
I voted for Obama — decided to give the guy a shot. Let’s face it: McCain would’ve been even more disappointing.
I didn’t realize you were naturalized, congratulations, btw.
No McCain wouldn’t have been more disappointing, as his veto pen would’ve kept the insane wasteful spending that makes up this useless non-stimulating stimulas bill out.
Granted he wouldn’t have been much better, but a bunch of dumb debt-increasing, private sector crowding new gov’t programs is not what a country that’s losing jobs needs right now. They need to take the shackles off the private sector, not reinforce them.
___________
Obama should share a peace pipe with Michael Phelps. He seems a bit uptight these days.
I think we’re going up 300 points today, Fly.
indeud.
400 point rally.
Dave,
Who was Lefty in The road warrior?
Didn’t get that.
Awesome car chase at the end of that.
A Chinese friend told me that when he was over there recently the Chinese government was running ads all through the media telling the people that it was their duty to go out spend money to help the economy. He reckons that the stores were reasonably busy and that people were actually listening to the propaganda swill accepting that they had a duty to spend.
I love mono cultures.
anyways out with the BAC a little earlier with just over a buck and to bed.
Dog:
I disagree, the market will fall 30% on Monday.
I’m headed for the track to run the VIPER!
That’s the dog track, and “VIPER” stands for:
V ictual
I mprovement
P rovider &
E xtraction
R ack
___________
Otherwise known as “the fryolater down back o’ the snack bar.”
____________
bought SFLY @ 8.35
Taking some profits here
Devil Puppy: Love your spirit, but dude, stop making calls the day before. It IS NOT working. You keep delaying your CRASH and are most likely taking a drubbing. We may get a larger, still gay “bank plan rally” on Monday. Then you can short this bullshit.
The Fly is God.
Dammit Fly, what’s up with the headers?
Now I can’t even edit to put my name in the above… (which was stripped out… again).
__________
Oops! Never mind, now its there. Very odd.
____________
Braveflaps,
The guy who tried to catch the boomerang and lost his fingers on his right hand.
I’m going to chop mine off if the market doesn’t trade the way I think it should.
Sniper6,
Obama does seem uptight these days. I think he stepped into the presidency expecting some sort of Lincolnian wet dream to ensue. It was great during the Cinderella ball that was the inauguration ceremony. Now, however, the economic pumpkin is staring him right in the eye. Not pretty.
Jake,
I’m a dual citizen — father was born in NYC (he lives in Rio now) and I was born and raised in Rio. So, US citizenship was passed down to me by my pops from birth).
As for presidency, whatever your thoughts may be about Obama, McCain would’ve been lost. Not that either guy is a financial policy wonk (who IS for that matter in this environment of unprecedented goings-on), but McCain looked pretty clueless during the campaign. He didn’t appear like he even knew what the hell was going on — I suspect he had even less ideas about how to go about tackling any of it.
Besides, even if McCain did skate by on his own, his health is cause for concern. Please don’t tell me you’d like to see that Palin broad running shit.
This could be a bear trap. Look at the $cpce level and it is at the same level of the last bear trap Sept 22. It all sounds to easy and everybody is a Bull. I will wait for more confirmation on Monday. If resistance becomes support it will be panic buying next week.
Video footage of Hartford.
http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=vids.individual&videoid=23898875
Look for GS to hit 100 today.
Remember, stocks that hit 96 tend to go to 100!
Fly .. unsolicited/unwanted advice fm the peenut gallery
lose DUG … oil is down $2.00 & it ain’t up .. if oil reverses, DUG is gonna DIG its own grave & the market will The Fly.
better off shorting CRE names or the next HIG, which is PFG
Fly:
Can you PPT STAR for me?
Besides, even if McCain did skate by on his own, his health is cause for concern. Please don’t tell me you’d like to see that Palin broad running shit.
You don’t get it. Obama could have a 150 IQ and it would mean shit if his economic philosophy were a bankrupt one, which it is.
I’m sure Lenin and Marx were smart guys, but that doesn’t mean their economic philosophies — the same one adopted by your home state much to their fifty year chagrin — haven’t caused untold death and destruction simply for the reason that they put hope and ideology before common sense and human nature (free markets).
As for McCain and Palin I know they say (or at least she says) they believes in free markets and are against spending. That’s all I need from a public official frankly. Bush was allegedly dumb, yet he looks like a wizard compared to this crew of fuckups.
____________
JUICE – Thanks for that HIG short. It was good for 20%+. Had to cover today. So you think PFG is next ? What about MET ?
Obama needs the bitch slap Pelosi and Frank with his pimp hand.
BofA CEO Ken Lewis Tells CNBC: Merrill Lynch Will Prove Good Acquisition…Nationalization Not Even Remote Possibility (story developing)
Juice:
Wrong again. Oil is down $2 and DUG is hanging in there, despite a huge rally. Should the market go down, DUG will rip.
Plus it is my hedge.
Dug is toast. Fly, hedge your DUG with some ERX.
the fucking Homos are taking pictures… smiling and talking bullshit from their shitholes… whaiting for Obama
The Zombie is a salad tosser
Dont you guys realize tech and oil are the sectors propping up the market? Oil stocks bec they haven’t fallen, and techs bec they rose to compensate for fins who deteriorated further.
DUG is about as good a hedge for this fuckery as there is, unless oil stocks like XOM et all really begin to participate.
Why can’t I see the new comments once the page is opened?
Danny, pure gibberisj.
Fly,
What are your thoughts on the Ag names? Same story as with oil producers? Or mostly unaffected?
CAP … from what I’ve read, MET ain’t great but they won’t blow up, ala HIG
PFG, like HIG has significant CRE exposure & will likely need to rais capital
no, look at a chart
bek, bek, bek, bwwaaaacckkkk, time to sell, bbwwwaaaaaacccckkkk!!!
SFLY will prob hit high 9’s before it pulls back considerably.
Danny,
I’m seeing DUG hovering just above 52 week lows and 74% off its high from October.
I’m not a raging bull, just calling it out.
but your calling it out wrong. Forget DUG. it is a vehicle. pull up BAC, GE, XLF, XOM, CVX, RIMM, GOOG.
The first three (fins) have tanked since oct lows, the next two recovered but mostly flat, the last 2 are up.
If you are having trouble seeing it, set your chart to 1 qtr in length.
XOM is my tell for the rest of the day.
HIG shit the bed cause as soon as the Barron’s readers bought in, HIG cut its’ dividend and those pikers got ripped a new one.
SFLY: from the conference call
What became very clear during this Q4 is that our strong brand, combined with a relatively low cost, high sentimental value and a holiday-oriented product line, has the potential to produce solid operating results even in times of great economic challenge
Fool says load it!
Off to the gym, then, errands. See you folks later tonight.Good luck to all.
SWHC breakout finally underway
Damn nice call on SWHC @ 1.85- All I wanna do is bang bang bang for not going in.
The doc has it down. This is another vapor rally. Good on you kids that rode it or used it as a hedge.
The mark to market change rumour spread by pumpety liesman on cnbc is not only a big joke because of what the doc said, but also because the dolorous banks already have those assets in level 3 at mark to model. In other words, it won’t make a bit of a difference.
Will they have the balls to carve up these bloated, rotting zombies?
Just don’t call it nationalization. Call it coughing up the crown jewels.