…you’re all losers anyway.
It’s funny how many of you were just drinking some cappuccino at the Taliban Cafe, readying to self detonate. Now, as a point in fact, the world has changed and your sentiments are extraordinarily optimistic.
Most of you shall be discounted as mere novice investors, unable to see more than 15 minutes in advance. A handful of you, in my estimation, are excellent investors. You know who you are.
Here’s the situation:
The underlying fundamentals are positively dreadful. However, stocks are going up anyway.
Why?
Well, for one, there are many people out there who believe a zero rate environment gives the green light for risking capital in equities, searching for return. Then there are the people who believe Barack the Builder’s insane trillion dollar money making plans will buoy the prices of basic materials. Hence, with that in mind, getting short dollars, short t-bills and long equities is the way to go, particularly commodity stocks.
In my estimation, everything mentioned above is a sideshow to what I deem to be of utmost importance, which is emerging markets.
I think it’s fair to say, emerging markets is where it’s at, if you are looking for growth. However, looking at their fudged data, one could make the assumption that they are fucked for an indefinite period of time. Moreover, one could also argue that once their surpluses shrink dramatically, via U.S. consumer being dead in the water, they will stop buying treasuries.
If that happens, well then, forget about a late year rally, to say the least. TBT will soar.
The real question is: can the U.S. keep the ponzi scheme going? Will the Fed succeed in reflating the economy and re-saddling a shit load of new debt on the backs of Joe the Plumber?
Most importantly, where will the earnings growth originate from, with banks in the penalty box and industrials under pressure from drastic slowdowns abroad?
In the interim, stocks are free to run higher. Hell, based upon opaque optimism, the Dow can stomp up to 10,000 and the S&P up to 1050.
The point: don’t get sold on the notion that the worst is behind us. Make your trades and enjoy the renewed faith in American stocks. But remember, stocks are most attractive when no one wants them. And, when everyone wants them, you are better off shooting yourself in the face with a howitzer, than getting long.
At the present, I am 20% long, 40% short and 40% in cash.
UPDATE: I sold short 5,000 XOM @ $80.66 and I bought 5,000 SMN at $35.64.
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“A handful of you, in my estimation, are excellent investors. You know who you are.”
–Thanks Fly I know you talking about me.
ErX prints 45 again like I predicted.
Fade Fly:
What else do you have in your bag of tricks? Or are you just a Texas teabag?
will the fed succeed in reflating the economy along with the huge expansive fiscal policy is the real question. you’re 100% right. and at the present time no one really knows. one day at a time.
Right. So, essentially, it’s sort of like believing in God or aggressive space invaders. You have to keep faith.
Amen or ack, ack.
Fuck you, I’m a savvy investor/trader, with plenty of gains in 2008.
Hallelujah and pass the SRS, still like it for my hedge.
amen and ack, ack. agreed.
Short XOM @80.58
I am scratching my skin off waiting for my short entries. They are here http://concisetrading.blogspot.com/ anyone think we’ll break back below 91.30 on SPY today? If we do I am getting way into calls on 2x inverse etf’s. I am the ulta-bear!
Ryan
For now on, the intergalactic rally cry will be:
ACK, ACK.
Thank you.
Off you go.
Herr Fly, did you say, “…can the U.S. keep the ponzi scheme going?”…………Scheiße, man, they now own Bernie Madoff. He is their “permanent consultant.” Bernie Madoff is to ponzi schemes what Steve Jobs is to Apple Computer….
Thanks for the perspective on your allocations. As I learn more from you, others in the iBC crew and commentator pool, as well as further sources, the momentum charts have added further perspective, tho not sole viewpoint of attractiveness and timing. Anyway, I’ll be interested to continue watching TBT and your thoughts, and run additionally discussed tickers thru my own review for trades, including spot checks with the stocktwits.com folks and so on. For anyone else in the TBT boat, I’m inclined to take my money back with further bump if presented next week, having shown relative patience with the tide, assuming more desirable plays become apparent. Appreciate your posts since I’m staying in market touch, but not actively considering trades, until next week. Sometimes it’s just a personal choice for peace during family time, tho the low volume and multitude other spikey market context factors have shied me away for a spell.
LOL.
I agree with you, but i trade the charts. I dont look for the why nor try to rationalize the market. I just see a stock on a trend and jump early and get out when my indicators and the market says. Plain and simple.
Why the market goes up? because it wants to…
Why the market goes down? Because it wants to…
Who knows. Maybe all this crap is caused by Maddoff’s fund being leveraged 60 to 1 and being deleveraged and we dont know about it…
I just trade charts and control risk because thats all that i can do and control. Everything else is second.
Long TBT “should be” the trade of the year. I refuse to sell it, no matter what I think in the short term.
ACK ACK! TSO, ACK! WNR ACK-ACK!
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Long TBT “should be” the trade of the year. I refuse to sell it, no matter what I think in the short term.
____________
Yeah, someone was crazy enough to pick that for Rage’s stock contest.
Can ya believe it?
__________
ACK ACK, C, ACK, ACK, BAC.
I am curious what personality makes a great trader…any of you guys willing to show us who you are? The best traders might all follow a certain personality type…perhaps. Maybe they are all very different personalities.
Here is the Keirsey Meyers-Briggs test if you want to see who you are:
I hope I did these links right:
http://www.kisa.ca/personality/
I am a mastermind pattern. We devise logical systems to achieve success in whatever industry we have talent. The stock market can be very frustrating for someone who has a logical mind that wants to create a ‘ system’ and then use the system to ‘ make money’. The market is highly irrational. Can a system ever be created to master the matrix market? Can emotional personalities have success in the market? hmmmm….
http://www.keirsey.com/handler.aspx?s=keirsey&f=fourtemps&tab=5&c=mastermind
ps I didnt so just typed them out instead.
I find myself irresistably drawn, like a moth to a candle flame, to the chart of Wimm Bill Dan WBD. It’s making a very interesting comeback.
ACK-ACK! Bing! Pow!
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Agreed! BAC is a tell, here. Look at that volume on New Year’s Eve!
Ack! ACK!
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SRS is interesting … berry berry interesting
WBD through the intermediate term downtrend line (started September 30th), and won’t be coming up against the longer term dowtrend (starting in early June of ’08) until about $40 or so.
For risk assessment purposes, I’d wait for a break of $32.15 on some volume, but you could start legging here…
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Freddy-
I’m with you. I too let price determine my moves. However I, like I think a lot of people on this board, am addicted to the market, the economy and financial analysis. The old saying is that fundies tell you what to buy or sell and techs tell you when to buy or sell. I learn new things everyday and look to improve my strategy along the way. Personally I find it easier to recognize down trends that’s why I am a short seller.
“The underlying fundamentals are positively dreadful. However, stocks are going up anyway.”
Simple, everyone has thier panties wet for a rally…They have for awhile. ADMIT IT..YOU DO TO.
vclk busting out
Heres another site to take the test.
http://www.humanmetrics.com/cgi-win/JTypes2.asp
Thanks to The Fly, my M buy of last month is banking egregious coin.
Happy New Year.
Bruce — up against near term downtrend resistance ($57.50). Caution, could just be a DCB after the precipitous sell-off.
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Fed’s pumping so much money in, and it’s all finding its way back to the momentum stocks. Feels like it’s 1995 all over again!! We need another stock bubble to rebuild our economy.
They played this episode on the Twilight Zone yesterday in which one rich guy at a private club bets another rich guy $500,000 that he couldn’t talk for 1 year. The guy who talks too much is some wall street guy who’s lost a bunch of money, and the guy making the bet appears to be a senior member of the club. The guy is locked in a room with microphones to make sure that he doesn’t talk. At the end, the guy walks out to collect his money, and the rich guy who made the bet said “I’m a fraud! I lost most of my money a long time ago!” And the bet can’t be paid.
The other guy, unable to respond, madly scribbles a pad that he KNEW he wouldn’t be able to stay quiet, so he had the nerves to his vocal cords cut before he entered the sealed room.
OK episode. Not the greatest, but the guy who welched on the bet kinda looked like Madoff.
SRS is ripping higher.
Odd, no?
could be jake … but the (SRS) components are very weak for a strong market
seems like a very worthy hedge … so far .. we see … but I’m using it as one
it could be the canary in the bull coal mine, or maybe it plays ketchup… but looking like a primo hedge
The homos at the perfume section at Macy’s are putting on lipstick now, while drinking apple martinis.
Fly, see my note to Bruce.
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I l-o-v-e bubbles!! As soon as the market closes, I’m heading to the toy store to buy a friggin’ case of bubbles. I’m blowing bubbles all weekend until 9:30 AM Monday morning!! Thank you FED!!!!! Fully long on max. margin.
Bill Feingold
02:15:00 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Caution on leveraged ETF?s as portfolio hedges
It’s often suggested—and was suggested earlier today on the Buzz—that investors should consider using leveraged inverse exchange-traded funds (I know, that’s quite a mouthful) to hedge their portfolios.
Anyone considering this should be very careful, because these “ultra” funds work best for short-term trades in strongly trending markets. Under any other circumstances they have some severe drawbacks.
The reason lies squarely in the design. Each day, the leveraged inverse “ultra” fund is supposed to have twice the return, but in the opposite direction, of a given index. For instance, if the S&P 500 is down 1%, SDS is supposed to go up 2%. All well and good for a day or a trend.
But look what happens when you get volatility and wild day-to-day shifts in direction, just like we’ve been having for several months now.
Suppose SPY is up 25 % one day and down 20% the next. It would be precisely unchanged after the two days. (The arithmetic of compounding is unkind to this sort of volatility).
But SDS would have dropped 50% the first day and risen by 40% the next if it did what it was supposed to do. If you’re scoring at home, that’s a net decline of 30%!
There is no portfolio involving long positions in both of these instruments that would have avoided losing money under these conditions.
TBT…nice!!
I will like to apologize personally for slashing bear’s throats today…light volume , but why argue…
Looking to exit positions EOD…just in case, but noting market looks bullish so far short term timeframe
Next stop for SRS,60 then it rips higher to 80 on its way to 140 when the shit really hits the fan. Buying at $50 was such a bargin
No downticks allowed!! Can’t wait to see the stuffed bull riding the CNBC ticker tonight!!
Which way the last 30 minutes? Rip higher, risk removal/profit-taking lower into the weekend, or more grindage?
developing …..
Fly, what happen to, I will not buy ETF’s in 2009.
volume = conviction; ergo, lack of volume = lack of conviction.
Caveat Emptor
SRS is very strange today. But we are ripping fucking higher here.
Having a short time horizon has been more of an asset that a detriment, lately. 15 minutes can seem like an eternity, especially if it’s the first/last 15 minutes of the trading day.
SRS is completely lame…it’s hanging around all-time lows in the midst of the greatest RE calamity since cavemen roamed Manhattan.
Fly,
Why not swing a line of 100,000 shares of DXO at 3.15??
SMS (note the ticker closely) — BTFO.
(another commodity fugger)
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Oh, and I’m short.
SRS meet downtrend line.
I think you two were going somewhere?
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Don’t forget, bears…it only takes 3 days of these +300 DOW days to equal 1000 points and DOW 10,000 which will really crank up the money flow.
DSB:
How much do you think we would need to quiet Dennis Kneale?
2009 is really simple. There will be a huge reinflation of money and the markets will go up.
Jake…do cavemen still roam Manhattan?
DEVILDOG Says:
Downtrend to undercut the lows starts tomorrow..
January 1st, 2009 at 8:00 pm
Yeah right
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWLHQ3S-Oq8
Sawzall — I’m afraid that’s too cryptic… are you referring to our friend Devil Dog?
I think he’s dealing with a lemon Jello-branding pudding flood in his Montana hide-away right now.
Should not have stored so much of the mix near the sump pump, I guess.
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Bought 3700 SCC @ $78.30 and 1000 SDP @ 41.28 and 5000 DZZ @ $24.88. Counter trend rally is now over. We now head DOWN and break the November lows. BIG BEAR RAID!!!
Fade Fly:
I will be here to chuckle at you when your bullshit account at SWIM goes to zero.
iETFs, especially SRS, are going to rip through hearts of bulls everywhere throughout next week. What’s occurring today is just asinine.
DEVILDOG: Your an idiot. Why would you short shit that will rise in a down market. Your a fake.
Anyway, in less fake news the market is just ripping balls off and if I was a manager I would sell my shit into the close and call it a year for the first half. FXO and FTK are in a race to $4. My bet is DXO gets there first. I would also look to short GRMN and go long AAPL.
So ZMoose, what are you saying…SRS to go up or down?
Anyone here think GS pegs 90 at OPEX?
Gee, who was that that bought a load of SRS at 50.70 and 59 earlier this week? DEVILDOG. Thanks stupid bulls buying CRE REITs. SSF is now at 338. SRS to $300.
Here is something for the bulltards to blow your wad on…
http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk/dow_15000_fair_value/2008/12/31/166757.html?s=al&promo_code=76BE-1
Economists See Dow 15,000 As Fair Value
Wednesday, December 31, 2008 1:26 PM
By: Gene Koprowski Article Font Size
The Dow is languishing at about 44 percent below its estimated fair value, and investors can “reasonably expect” a rate of return that is higher than historical averages in the coming years, according to economists.
“One year ago, we thought the Dow Jones Industrial Average would finish 2008 at 15,000. Needless to say, the Dow is nowhere near this level and would need an unprecedented miracle to get there in the next few days, economists Brian Wesbury and Robert
Stein write in Forbes Magazine.
“Nonetheless, our model for valuing the broad U.S. equity market continues to signal that fair value for the Dow is at or above 15,000.”
Wesbury cautions that this statement is not some bold prediction. He and Stein don’t think the Dow will reach 15,000 anytime soon.
“What this model is saying is that if the Dow were trading at 15,000 today, expectations of future returns would settle at a historical average rate of return,” Wesbury and Stein indicate.
To determine fair value for the stock market, the duo takes the level of corporate profits as measured by the government and then discounts these profits by the prevailing credit-risk-free rate of return measured by the 10-year U.S. Treasury interest rate.
“The market is cheaper than it was in 1974, 1982 and 1994 — all of which had huge bull markets ahead of them,” Wesbury and Stein report.
Other Wall Street gurus agree there’s a lot of upside potential.
According to USA Today, a review of year-end ’09 targets by five top market strategists found that nearly all expect double-digit percentage gains.
P.S…Good Cotton Bowl game on…TTech 14 Ole Miss 14
Seessh when I click on some of these guys names and see who they are I wonder if there is anyone here over the age of 25? They all seem to have their own websites tho….giving out advise.
2009 Prediction: DJIA 13,000 this year
I likes the D-dog … even though he’s N-V-T-s nuts!
gapping, you’re the idiot. If you’re talking about me SHORTING utilities, gold, consumer services and CRE then watch and learn. Why SHORT utilities…I explained that 2 months ago…look it up and watch utilities go DOWN. Gold…you figure it out yourself. BTW, it’s going DOWN to $600. Why don’t you put your money where your mouth is and go against me and post your utility and gold buys today? Chicken bull?
Shorting SPY here.
retailers are being sucked in. even with the these recent rallies Long term downward trend still in place.
DevilDog
Did you say we are going down today? What happened? You dont remember what you said?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCaUre8Ju94
This Fed bubble is gonna make the mid 90’s internet bubble and the Y2K Fed bubble look like baby shit.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FB5sWGuP5ww
Dawg — I just had a quick look at SCC, and this is a serious question:
WTF are you thinking?
Does the number $83.17 seem familiar?
‘Cause — from my first look– that was “serious support.”
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Devil it seems everytime you post bearish which is fine. but your right 50 percent of time and wrong other 50 percent. and judging by how those bear etfs are doing you really should not be yapping a storm unless you took your profits
Jake, watch and learn on SCC. I’m EXTREMELY happy it broke “support” and I could buy it so low and will make HUGE coin on it. Why don’t you SHORT it and post?
DevilDog is not real. He is the figment of a certain someone’s very active imagination.
Da, I’ll take my profits at the new lows. You can pussy out and take yours whenever.
SRS, FAZ, and SKF are all going up next week. What we saw today breaks trends and is bullshit. Our shit stained market is overbought, and it’s not going to bounce from the V bottom we saw in November. People who are calling bottoms are morons. Expect the first Reality Check next week.
ZM
DevilDog is about as convincing as an M. Night Shyamalan movie.
S&P to 950 then short.
Careful Z, expect a strong rally heading into January 20th.
BOUGHT SMN 34.49
My wife just mentioned that her girlfriend call and said something to the effect of watch out for low volume ponzi schemes. I think her husband works for a wall street firm.
Never be a bull or a bear but let charts talk. you guys got your head so far up your ass you can only see a bear. my friend right now market going up until proven otherwise. Vix will be my time to short
Got murdered long TBT into year end, sold for tax loss and replaced with unleveraged Rydex short 30yr RYJUX.
Any unlevered short bond ETF’s out there worth looking at?
http://www.rallymonkey.com/video/kenindex.swf
Gov’t starting to fill Strategic Petro. Reserve again, cover your shorts & put on your rally caps!!!
selling into the rally, will start adding inverse ETFs once we get to SPX 950…
Lady G –
How old is The Fly? I sense wisdom in his voice. 34?
Stumpy
The Fly ‘ is an old soul’ not recorded in his physical age.
Oh I’m not holding them that long… I’m only keeping them into middle of next week, unless the market reacts differently which it most likely will.
wow, the aapl into macworld trade is on again.. damn last year flew buy fast…
Da, I’ll take my profits at the new lows. You can pussy out and take yours whenever.
I’ve been taking profits all day, thanks.
Harvested some CBL, some DXO, some RGLD.
It’s not that I don’t agree with your stance, I just think you’re too early.
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XOM could not close above the 200 M/A. Doubled down on SRS at the close. Lets see what next week brings..
The Messiah Rally has begun.
SRS looks nice in after hours here. Prolly good to get rid of the CBL common (still have the preferred, though).
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