The Bottomless Bottom

Much like 2000, this market is unable to find a bottom, as investors reel from staggering declines in momentum and “value trap” stocks.

When investing, it’s important to look at the underlying business of the stock you are buying, instead of stupid lines and dots (charts). The question you need to ask yourself is: will business improve or deteriorate?

For example: one of Apple’s suppliers is citing a big drop in orders from the iPhone fuckers, due to taking a “conservative view toward macro economics slowdown.”

Now, I’m long [[AAPL]] and love the company; but there’s no fucking way I’m buying it higher than $150.

With regards to [[MVIS]]:

I am using this spike in volume and price to reduce my exposure to small cap/unproven names. In bad markets, story stocks get the “homo-hammer of certain death” daily. Keep in mind, all the CES hype will soon be a memory.

Finally, I’m leaving early today, due to a celebratory event. I am quite pleased with my market positions, especially my shorts.

Are you?

Longs are unnerved by the breakdown in key momentum names and have begun “selling it all.”

Keep in mind, fund managers HAVE to raise cash, in order to balance risk.

With the market failing here, I think it’s safe to short stocks, via [[FXP]], [[EEV]] and my favorite [[DUG]].

If a naval clash with Iran can’t boost oil prices, nothing will. Just so you know, being long DUG gets you short [[XOM]], [[CVX]], [[SLB]], [[MRO]] and [[COP]].

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fxv_6WA6A6M 450 300]

Part of the problem with “playing a bounce,” is picking the right stock(s). In the past, prior to acquiring space ships and other “new age” technology devices, “The Fly” would occasionally pick the wrong stock—essentially fucking up the “oversold rally bounce.”

As you know, nailing short term bottoms can be sweet. However, buying the anomaly, or the only God forsaken stock that stays down on a bounce, can drive any investor to mental instability.

Some people go long the index’s, via [[QQQQ]] or [[DIA]]. However, I think buying index ETF’s is plain ol’ vanilla gay. Instead, for a bounce, I like focused ETF’s, specifically [[ROM]].

ROM is the Ultra Technology Fund, which is most heavily weighted in [[MSFT]], [[AAPL]], [[CSCO]], [[GOOG]], [[HPQ]], [[IBM]], [[INTC]], [[ORCL]], [[QCOM]] and [[DELL]].

Barring a notable blowup, on a bounce, buying ROM will almost ensure participation on the upside.

I sold 50,000 shares of [[MVIS]] @ $4.50.

Ok, now we have an unraveling of solar burrito stocks.

With big breakdowns in [[FSLR]], [[SOLF]], [[LDK]], [[CSUN]], [[STP]] and [[CMG]], it appears the bulls are losing faith in its rubbish.

However, much to my chagrin, Chinese stocks are somewhat bullet proof, bouncing in today’s queered out tape.

On the downside, we have breakdowns in energy and other basic resource names, such as [[RS]], [[SCHN]], [[BOOM]], [[CLF]], [[X]], [[HOC]], [[TSO]], [[VLO]] and [[SUN]].

The way I see it, we are due for an oversold bounce, but key leadership names have shit the bed. So, with that being said, I want to sell into this small spike and set up for the next leg down.

On the upside, [[NTRI]] is killing the shorts, alongside [[WBD]], [[MVIS]], [[GILD]], [[JWN]], [[STJ]], [[LLY]], [[MO]], [[NIHD]], [[SNE]], [[BG]], [[SHW]], [[CL]], [[HWAY]] and [[ABT]].

Finally, [[RIMM]] is touching down on $100. While it’s tempting to reload and buy some more RIMM here, for now, I will hold off—waiting to see how the general markets pans out. Plus anyway, “The Fly” is waiting for small Iranian boats to get nuclear bombed out the water.

NOTE: With oil breaking down [[DCR]] and [[DUG]] look great here.

NOTE II: [[CROX]] looks like a small bag of garbage.

According to an SEC document from January of 2007, a fuckload of [[LFC]] stock will be “unlocked” for sale, starting this week.

Under the A Share Issue, 600,000,000 A Shares that have been placed with the strategy investors will be subject to a “lock-up” period of 12 months from the date of commencement of trading of the A Shares that are subscribed through on-line issue on the Shanghai Stock Exchange; 300,000,000 A Shares that have been placed with the target placees off-line will be subject to a “lock-up” period of 3 months from the date of commencement of trading of the A Shares that are subscribed through on-line issue on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

The shares coming from under lock-up are overseas, but may still have an adverse affect on the NYSE listed shares.

Within the index tied to the [[FXP]], LFC is the third largest component.

Howard posted a nice blog about housing/China/solar. Go check it out (words famously communicated by Jack from ‘The Shining’).

I do not intend, nor care, to beat the bulls to death with a steal pipe (donned with a rubber grip). But, I will say, in all my years on Wall Street, I’ve learned to spot tops in sectors–like a space walking magician. As a matter of fact, somewhere buried within my old blog, I alluded to identifying tops in overheated sectors, which usually occurs after 7 weeks of rocketry.

Also, whatever the investment banking fuckers are peddling: beware. They always distribute the “hot” or “in” investment theme, at or damn close near the nuclear bombed out top. A bunch of homo-hammering top tickers they are.

So, now, we have a classic supply/demand situation, where the supply of bullshit Chinese stocks are outstripping the demand from retarded, soon to be broke, investors—all thanks to the “deal guys.”

During 2007, Wall Street set a record, booking 234 deals, raising more than 54 billion dollars. To put things in perspective, back in 2003, only 15 billion dollars was raised on 68 deals.

Back then, deal guys were living skinny. Now those coked out scum bags are fat slobs, shoveling Chinese shit in NYC.

My point: Wall Street is pushing China/Solar too hard. Eventually, stocks like [[JASO]], [[FSLR]], [[YGE]], [[AKNS]], [[CHL]], [[LFC]] and [[BIDU]] will get fucked up like a teenage dreamer, in a Freddy Kruger flic.

With my money, I’m betting on “the wheels of shit” to fall off the Chinese stock wagon, this year, via [[FXP]].

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRrM6tfOHds 450 300]

Much to his enemies chagrin, “The Fly” is back to making “severe coin,” this time as a bull killing machine.

It’s been documented here, “The Fly” is a “space alien magician,” who is able to make “unhuman-like” market calls—effectively making life entirely “unfun” for all other third tier bloggers.

While it’s true, I still own a truck full worth of [[RIMM]], [[AAPL]] and others, I still managed to close out the week +5%, thanks to my double inverse positions and heavy [[LEH]] short position.

Sometime soon, I expect the market will bounce, giving you retards who are still long a 3rd chance (“The Fly” gave you two chances to get out) to bail and get flat or short.

In case you are wondering, money managers need to raise cash, to the tune of 5-10%. Going into year end, most funds were fully invested.

As predicted, now, we are seeing the result of what happens when asset managers, who control trillions, decide to raise 5% cash, all at once.

Top pick: [[DUG]]

NOTE: Show some fucking respect.