God Loves Ag Plays

Mr. Monsanto vexes me.

Just this morning, I was in my office celebrating the [[MON]] earnings disappointment (I am short), via dancing, singing and demonstrations of outright physical violence towards the MON annual report in my office.

I was fucking shredding the fucker, throwing coffee on it—even throwing loose pages at my trader/servant.

Then, all of a sudden, Mother Market took my “big dicked” gains and tossed them in the shitter and flushed— for the second consecutive day. This fucking stock will-not-go-down.

This, along with other “indicators,” tells me God loves “ag plays.” As a result of this new discovery, I will cease my futile attempts to drive God’s portfolio lower.

After all, there are much better places for my money right now, such as: short [[LEH]] and short [[FED]].

Regarding today’s trading:

Yeah, it went down. But the decline was rather milquetoast.  It gave me a bad feeling in my stomach.

At the end of the day, I regained some of the egregious losses from yesterday’s “fuck you, you’re dead” session.

I added to a lot of dumbass positions, while worrying about the “what if’s.”

Finally, the reversal of the commodity downtrend was impressive, with significant gains in oil and gold. Moreover, the dollar weakened throughout the day. Should this trend continue, expect to see more weakness poleax the markets.

Top pick: [[FXP]]

I sold short 2,000 [[LEH]] @ $43.80.

Disclaimer: If you sell short LEH because of this post, your favorite baseball player will get injured, today. And, you may lose money.

I sold 2,000 [[UDN]] @ $29.20.

I sold 5,000 [[DUG]] @ $36.25.

I bought 1,000 [[SRS]] @ $88, 1,000 [[SKF]] @ $100.50 and 2,000 [[FXP]] @ $82.15.

Disclaimer: If you buy the above stocks because of this post, your company will move to China. And, you may lose money.

At the moment, Government intervention is too much for the bears. Despite the U.S. being the epicenter of all toxic mortgage paper, we have outperformed all other indices around the world.

Why, you might ask?

Answer: We manipulate the markets better than they do.

Think about all the credit issues, corporate fraud [[PAY]], earnings misses [[M]] and negative economic data. Think about you stupid fuck.

We’re only down 5% for the year. Ha! A fucking laugher.

Now, one of two things is going to occur.

Either the economy is strong and unemployment remains under 5%, effectively deballing the “recession now” crowd, or we really are in the “shitbox,” which will send the Dow off the fucking Empire State building.

This middle of the of the road shit is not for me and will not stand.

I’m not a quant guy. I do not use Meriwether mathematical models to blow up my book of business. I trade with instincts and common sense.

In my opinion, into this rally, sell the banks, via [[SKF]], sell commercial Re, via [[SRS]] and sell basic resources, via [[SMN]] and go long gold, via [[DGP]] is the only plan of action that makes any sense.

Should we print all time highs this year, I’ll eat [[C]] 10-k, and film it on youtube for everyone to witness.

NOTE: Eventually, the fuckers chasing performance, bidding up [[POT]] will have their day in hell. The run ups in ag names are absurd. Quite a bubble.

Keep buying the banks, or we’ll kill you.

Hank Paulson, U.S. Government Bank Bailout Department, Goldman Sachs

I sold all of my yen, via [[FXY]]. There is some sort of strange bullish tone spreading throughout Wall Street. It feels as if the confidence to take on risk is back and the sellers are on the heels, thanks to financial stabilization.

However, keep in mind, tight credit will permeate the economy for many months into the future. The problems we’ve seen at the banks will make its way into small business financing and industrial related names.

I realize everyone is pointing to India and China as the main catalyst to get long industrial names. But, don’t look now, China’s stock market is down 40% this year and have been under considerable inflationary pressures.

For the most part, earnings estimates of the S&P are way too high and need to come down. With the Dow only down 5% year to date, I believe there is another 2% tops of upside, while 10-15% of downside potential remains. Keep in mind, the bull case calls for the deflation of commodities, namely oil.

Well, oil and commodity related names make up more than 15% of the S&P right now, Considering how weak the financials are, do you, as a bull, really want to knee-cap the earnings of your lowest multiple/strongest group?

If so, expect the composite PE of the S&P to shoot through 20, making this market incredibly expensive.

All of that jargon is meaningless today. Right now, the market is running on increased optimism and momentum. I do not want to sell short the banks here. No yet. As a matter of fact, the only group I am comfortable with betting against is commodities, since the dollar is strong.

For now, my top picks are [[SMN]], [[DCR]] and short [[MON]].

They [[MON]] warned. When your stock is up from $7 to$113, over the last 4 years, YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED TO WARN. It’s almost like these fuckers just pulled a [[DIVX]] on the market, by guiding up last week, only to guide lower today. What the fuck is that all about?

Anyway, here is some “technical analysis” I drafted up for the internet(s).

Brian has nothing on me.

UPDATE: Here is a special song for Mr. Monsanto. Quite fitting.

UPDATE II: I’ll have you know, “The Fly” is in his office dancing (running man, cabbage patch) to the above song, while counting his profits in his man-sized MON short.

More on this later.

Buy the banks or we’ll kill you.

Hank Paulson, U.S. Government Bank Bailout Department, Goldman Sachs

UPDATE: Even though I believe technical analysis is the “special reserve” ambrosia for the ignorant and laziest sort of investor, Senor Woodshedder has done an excellent job reading the tea leaves.

Read his recent missive here.