1. Turkey
2. Cranberries
3. Stuffing
4. Corn
5. Pumpkin Pie
You fuckers need to quit eating out of death bags. The trend is up; catastrophe has been delayed. Into the rip, go ahead, get long some retailers, in a very, very non-homo sort of way.
On my sheets, I am long [[M]] and The TJX Companies, Inc. [[TJX]] .
On my watch list:
Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation [[RL]] , [[WACLY]] and The Timberland Company [[TBL]] .
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Dude
Retailers? Really?
Pretty gay trade if you ask me fly. You’re better off buying the banksters.
And far too many Australians wear timberland and Ralph. You know you’re at the end of the fashion cycle when the fuckers down here are sporting RL and Timberland.
Derek Zoolander approves of this blog entry.
STFU bitch!
J:
I think your brain is impaired. Go get yourself a biopsy, STAT!
Fly:
Any of those ummmm retailers showing any cash holding?
Macy’s has a fine balance sheet:
10 billion in debt, with 1 measly bill in cash.
Watch it go up.
What a STAT fly.
Look dude as far as brain impairment goes ……
I was about 77 seconds faster than you were in touting C last Friday as a trade for the same reasons. So even at my late stage in trading life I still have faster reflexes than you at 32. So pound for pound I’m a far more superior (master) trader than you, although you’re good.
Seriously though you’re touting the retailers because they’re so beaten down, yea?
Hey, folks—I know a thing or two about the market. The Fly is right. It only takes two days to make a trend, just like it takes two points to draw a straight line.
I’m also doing my Christmas shopping at Macy’s. I believe that’s inside information, so don’t go out and buy the stock tomorrow, OK?
How come ambrosia didn’t make the top five?
Barry, you’re an idiot so stfu.
Fly is obviously talking about recoil. If you don’t understand that shit you shouldn’t be near a trading site.
don’t forget to BBW!
Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc
4.02
+0.33 (8.94%)
… for the kids, of course.
Fly,
Ralph and Timerbland?
Seriously… WTF? Are you over 47.5?
This is worse than your Nutrisystem call. WTF was that all about anyways? You saw their advertisements on Bloomberg and figured it would go mainstream?
Holy shit man.
Buy some fucking Silver or Gold. ChiComm Central Bank is boosting their holdings from 400 tones to 6,000. They want the gold standard.
ChiComm Central Bank is boosting their holdings from 400 tones to 6,000. They want the gold standard.
I thought that was a rumor or are those fucking gold bug idiots spreading that shit around.
Mashed Potatos > Corn
I’m long until Santa tries to come down my bullshit gas fireplace.
Don’t buy M as it’s price is the mark of the beast, and therefore buying will leave you evil.
hah!
ahhh hahaha. ur list is pretty great
Morgan stanley is saying that the Jap government is thinking of borrowing Equiv $250 bill and buy up to 10% of the stock market.
J, post a link?
Fly, have you ever shopped at Macy’s? Since you drink rich man’s whisky and buys Coach bag for Mrs. Fly, I doubt you would even step your foot into the flea market of all anchor stores.
Seriously, coupons after coupons. There is a sale every week. This is on top of how the management changed the comission structure of our compensation system at Macy’s north, and all of our best salesman with over 80% conversion rate left for either Nordstroms or Von Maur. Macy’s has gone to shits now. Only kids right out of high school and people who cannot have been turned down by other anchors stores work at Macy’s.
Good sir. You are wrong on this one. Macy’s are saving money in a “very wrong way” (losing skilled salesman for less pay to high school kids).
Oh did you also know that Macy’s have a 90 day return policy with a 10 day price adjustment policy. You can literally, buy something for $100. Do price adjustment over and over again for the next two months to get it down to like $20. Go tell your wife. She’ll have a ball with this.
I said ANF at the end of last week, and think AFAM is good for a trade to the mid 50s. Who the fuck cares though, the importance lies in the reasons to be long. The absence of dishonorable mashed potatoes on the list commands authority that no toothless rube shall eat at a meal that reveres those that can hard sell beads and trinkets for Manhattan. Much like the modern day stockbroker. Think about it fat fuck. Besides, fuck carbohydrates. I eat things that had parents.
I like AAPL.
AAPL is retail
AAPL is computers
AAPL is digital content
AAPL is wireless
AAPL is aloomieeenum
AAPL is pancreas
It’s quite apparent that Macy’s also “have” a salesperson grammar requirement.
_______
Hey Nash Vegas,
Did you listen up the other day and cop some of that Murfressboro Mash (NHI) at $17.10?
Egregiously underpriced, it was.
_______
“Acorn squash had no parents.”
Little Orphan Acorn Squash — the Musical.
No, I didnt see that. I’ll keep an eye on it.
How are you jake? I prayed for you again, although I dont know who you are or what you look like. But I knew from your posts that you were getting stomped. Hope you are ok.
You fucking idiots never cease to amaze me.
GOLD IS A FUCKING SCAM!!!
No one gives a fuck about those shiny yellow coins, morons.
TBL is on the “watch list,” due to poor mans boots.
M goes higher.
STFU and watch.
http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/index.html
ok, now what? Says:
J, post a link?
fly is right. gold is for old dudes, goombas, fetishists and hindis.
Fly when was the last time you shopped at M’s .
The fucking place is a rat hole in NYC. I wouldn’t be seen dead there.
Macy’s is a fucking icon. You Macy’s haters make me sick. I spit at you.
Hey Macy’s Employee…
Shut the fuck up. Everytime I make the mistake of wandering into Macy’s, I cant find a salesman to save my life. And then once I find him, I want to kill him because he’s too retarded to tell L from XL. You don’t need awesome salesman to sell a pile of robes marked 30% off. You just need a fucking temp to put the tags on and another temp to make sure the shoplifters only take what they can wear under their original outfit.
There is nothing funnier than Macy’s floorpeople trying to claim that Macy’s will be hurt because they aren’t there any more. Like I need you to pick out a cheap golf shirt. Ha!
I’d like to point our SBUX after hours warning. You may recall that SBUX was the first out of the gate with reduced guidance and store closings. I think SBUX has pretty good information systems and predictive metrics. They are the canary in the coal mine. No way the consumer is feeling spendy anytime soon.
Fly
You’ve been doing a lot of spitting lately.
However do you shop at the rat hole in Manhattan? You could end up getting a disease from that friggen place.
Now if you said the Bergdorf suit department had been spun off, was trading as a separate entity and has 100 million of cash: that would be interesting.
I always loved the female mannequins at the ladies store when they were semi naked. They always built them with a nice rack.
Boom — thanks for the thoughts and prayers, but I’m fine. More stress in the work place than the trading place these days. Trying to get deals done by the end of the year, and before the increase in cap gains.
CBL was a butt kicking, but as I said, I’m pretty confident in the team there, and I’ve a mix now of preferred and common. Having gone through this cycle before with the REITs helps some.
Could not believe NHI (another old client, btw) the other day, at $17. No debt, and trading at an effective (after cash of $6) yield of 20%!
Nuts.
They are in the medical office real estate field. Not exactly an unstable market — ever.
________
You could go with RTH , althogh M is not in the top 10 holdings
Wasnt DD short that one?
eventually gold’s emotion will die as a safe haven as its commercial purposes are for greasy fuckers…bring on the gold chains and a few extra bracelets
off to soak my balls in epsom salts
Boom, not for nothing, but SBUX is waaaay overpriced cawfee.
Not exactly shocking news that they are going to have “a touch of trouble” in “belt tightnin'” times.
_____________
Going to Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade, as I have since I was too small to walk. Taking my progeny.
Macy’s 4-evah.
_______
Tibs–
When they destroy the dollar, you will be happy for your gold hordes.
yours,
Smaug.
_______
Macys was the first credit card i ever got. Oh the memories. 80’s clothes at the mall.
Thanks J
and you replace with what EL?
Here’s the problem. The most valid definition of money is the way Mises described it. Far better than the Keynesian crapola we here now at our universities.
Mises said that money is that commodity that is in most demand.
Money is also a store of value however since Nixon told the frogs fucks to piss off one Friday in 1971- after they came over looking for their gold- money has basically been corrupted as it’s value is being devalued through inflation.
Do you trust Bernanke protecting the dollar value?
No.
So what do you go for?
frankly i actually wouldn’t be surprised if the Chinese are converting to gold as they know Bernanke will do his best to depreciate their dollars.
Gold may be gay, but the greenback is even gayer.
The Fly…
….didn’t mean to tell you to buy Timberland (TBL), he meant to tell you to go out and buy Justin Timberlake’s new album….
….which is absolutely, ultra-homo, hyper-gay….but that’s okay! (to be gay, I mean)
one we start using wheelbarrows of money to buy a loaf of bread, it will be too late,
I have gold and bags of silver for insurance, not an investment.
NOW my balls are refreshed…Who says gold has any value? Really other than the other gold bugs (yes I used that gey term) driving it up where is the valuation derived from…eventually the gold bugs will all die off. Silver used to be worth more than gold due to the difficulty in mining it…
El
Gold’s utility is decided by people. it has the exact value people’s buy and sell decisions create every day.
Utility is a very interesting concept in economics that has been debated for 350 years. It’s worth taking a look at as it forms a base of economics and hence human behavior.
Thoughts on ROST? Seems overvalued relative to TJX.
Yeah, so, I get that and it is my point exactly…smoke in mirrors that crazy old fuckers buy
good article about what j is talking about
http://www.freemoneyfinance.com/2008/04/purchasing-powe.html
Hi j, like my hooters?
Why don’t ya come up and see me again sometime.
I get it I just don’t agree and think in my lifetime there will be a day of reckoning. My investment courses (registered from the same matchbook cover as Fly) and the extra reading time in prison really helped with my understanding, but thanks for the extra help guys.
This is fucking priceless…a little too late to: “The Treasury and the Fed will help fund new loans packaged into securities for sale to investors”…WTF…ROFLMAO…ROFLMAO…ROFLMAO
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIXCu2ptpeCQ&refer=home
Hopefully Orenthal James Simpson will become the next Treasury Secretary because they need all the help they can get with decision processes and he’s made some dueseys.
Get ready for the infamous Fly reversal. We should sell off a little in the AM and then try and retest intraday highs over the next couple trading days.. Then you should get a nice rant from Fly and schizo revert type move back to the “This market is going to Zero”.
GM is an icon also… back up the truck
– wtf?
That was a good article. Thx
BHP just pulled the bid on RIO. BHP is up 15ish% and Rio is down 30%.
RIO’s purchase of Alcan at the top of the market paying 47 billion has fucked RIO good and proper.
Retail trade…very Costanza-like
Jake – Regarding the REIT’s, there was an interview on CNBC with Tom Barrack, allegedly the “best real estate investor on the planet”. He was uber bearish, in general and on REIT’s in particular. Something didn’t seem quite right, but I hadn’t heard of him before. He didn’t seem to be in the same league as Sam Zell, but he is #227 on Forbes 400 FWIF, and might have been talking his book. Any thoughts?
Overpriced cawffee is all the rage this holiday season!
Marc Faber calling for old mans, old style, physical Gold rally; stored outside the good ol’ USofA.
He says the middle east will collapse in 2009, crushing demand for infrastructure building and materials.
yup,Macy’s is gay.One of the M in Boston had two gay mannequins (gay pride) in a display window and one of them had boobs.Complaints were made and they took them down.
Im starting to like Boston.
BHP/Rio its the best non-deal trade of the month.
Fuck Rio and fuck the stupid fucking CEO who ought to be drawn, quartered and left in the public square so widows and orphans can urinate on him at will.
Fuck the RIO chairman and and the board who refused to talk to BHP or even entertain the idea of a merger. these reprobates ought to sent to Gitmo and then fed to hungry lions.
Fuck the investment banks that advised RIO telling them that the price was double the BHP ratio offer of 3.4. These idiots ought to be shot on sight.
BHP is god. They walked away from a potentially sour deal and had their shareholders interest at heart.
Let’s look at the battle ground.
BHP is still spewing out cash with minimal debt while those fools at RIO bought Alcan at the top of the market incurring $47 billion of debt. RIO could be in financial trouble over this.
Meanwhile BHP can do a stock buyback or simply make a special dividend to its cash needy shareholders during a time when cash is king.
This is the best walk away since Microtheft walked away from Yahoo.
The Rio board should be sued from here to high heaven over this fuck up.
BHP was up 30% at one stage in the London market.
Fuck gold. That boat sailed when it was $260 per ounce. Even if it goes higher it’s a set up.
I hope my little boy is well behaved these days. He is not looking forward to President Obama, I tell ya.
UYG to 20 by Christmas, then back to 5. Enjoy the roller coaster.
Happy Thanks Giving to all.
Fly,
You make great calls. No disputing that.
But you often get carried away with the extent of the move. I’m not taking away from the fact that you’re a phenomenal trader. But it’s a behavioral flaw I have noticed, which could be hurting your returns. Don’t overstay your welcome. You’re up 70% YTD? You could be up 170% if you address this minor issue of hubris and patience for a new good risk-reward setup to reemerge.
The market just rallied 900 points in 2 days. This market, more than any other I have seen, is all about precise timing. Why advocate new longs here on the back of such a huge move? Buying dips and selling rips is what has worked so far in this market. Why should it be different all of sudden?
From here, we could go higher, but the risk-reward isn’t as good as it was on Thursday or Friday. We’re also in an area of high congestion right now. Folks who bought stocks 2 weeks ago at DOW 8,000-and-change are now going to be sellers.
I, for one, love gold right now, but I’m not about to go out buying gold stocks today given 30-40% moves most of the quality names have made in the past 2 days.
-Phil
j, have you had enough posts today? Did you forget anything? God forbid that that massive intellect go to waste.
phil
Where is he advocating new longs?
Fair is fair. In know Fly is brutal enough to defend himself here.
He went long in Citi of Friday which was the time to go long and also went long some other stocks. He’s staying long those stocks and thinking of ” watching” some other sectors.
I can’t see how you could argue the points you made in view of what he’s doing and the vol in the market.
Buy/sell and hold in this market is a recipe to disaster.
Canuck
Which family member did you sleep with last night? Being Canadian I would guess you weren’t choosy?
J,
I was here when the Fly pushed for Citi on Friday. I was also on this board pushing for purchases of the miners. I bot ANV and SLW on weakness Friday. And sold SLW and ANV on morning strength Monday. Quick 32% and 23%, respectively, on both plays. But now I’m out.
I don’t see reasons to push the envelope long. I think the best play is to sit on one’s hands right here.
-Phil
I agree with Phil. Market is do for a little breather…then probably higher on low volume Friday…
Phil
C is going higher. Maybe not today not tomorrow but it’s heading higher. If by some quirk of fate they report a 1/2 way acceptable 4th quarter they’ll be 20 bucks and change.
Meanwhile the downside is protected by the wrap and the fact that it is so low that 6 bucks in today’s market is basically a stop loss.
So what’s wrong with being long C here?
Secondly this rally doesn’t seem to have stalled. It is a bear market rally but bear market rallies are the most satisfying things to trade.
So why is he not doing a good job?
and why exactly is the best play to sit on ones hands when you have a potential deal of a year sitting with C. You milk shit until the end and C is looking like it has further to go.
What the downside?
expecting illogical bear market “Santa Claws” rally into Obama inauguration…reload shorts another 15-20% higher…
Here’s the other thing Phil
Wachie was sold at 7 bucks without a wrap. How much is C worth with a government wrap?
C is one of the best risk reward trades I’ve seen mount up for a long time.
Low downside… 6 bucks to zero and the potential to hit 15 bucks and higher if the losses are contained and they are seen to point that arrow upwards.
AS i see trading you have to milk your profits potential and never let go as your profits have to pay for losses. You gotta let great risk reward bets play out to the extreme.
I may add more to C today even though i bought some yesterday as well as Friday.
J,
The post says to get long some retailers. C is a bank.
JT
Just T
Fine tell us about the retailers? What do you think?
J,
What’s the downside to C? Are you seriously asking me that question? hahahahahaha
Do you have any idea how stupid that question is? Kudos to Fly for the Citi trade. In my opinion, the play on Citi was long gold/silver Friday, because it was a trade off of monetary expansion and government scrambling to save the “system” with capital injetions. The Citi trade, was a gamble. Sure, in hindsight, it worked out given the configuration of the rescue plan. But the government could have just as well saved Citi by wiping out shareholders a la FNM, FRE or AIG.
In fact, check out AIG. After trading in the $2 near-deth area in mid-September it lifted off on Sep 19 and eaked out another point in the next couple of days. But if you overstayed your welcome by an extra 2 days, you gave all the gains back on Sep 24 and 25.
The point is Citi might in fact go higher, but the trade is now hard money. And, in the event random negative news is released overnight you could see gains evaporate. Not a situation I personally see an edge in. But that’s just me.
-Phil
J,
Correction: the shareholder wipeout applies to FNM and FRE. AIG was an example of no wipeout but risky post-bailout action reminiscent of the current Citi trade.
Thoughtless,
I personally would not touch the retailers. But I am not the Fly and I know I am not nearly as good a trader as the Fly. That said, I think the retailer play is a Costanza trade (think Opposite Day episode). If it works, it will work for all the wrong reasons. I personally think this holiday season will be dismal. Too many people are out of work, or think they may be out of work soon. End of year tax selling will add to the downdraft.
Of course this is just my opinion…and opinions are like assholes…they all pretty much stink to one degree or another.
I remain 65% in cash.
JT
So I’m watching the Jim Rogers interview I dvr’d last night. He is non stop bashing these bailouts etc. I switch back to live tv and see the new bailout, hahaha.
I pity the fool who hates Gold!!
Mr. T,
Gold’s going higher. Not quite sure what the net arithmetic is in on inflation/deflation right now. But it doesnt seem to matter anymore. One fund manager I know and respect made a good point to me yesterday: gold is starting to trade like an alternative currency.
We will see. But there’s no denying that gold’s going to be much higher in the years ahead. My qualm with gold was primarily the extend of deleveraging, price action on gold, and timing on gold. Gold might be range-bound a bit here, but the direction is higher. $700/oz looks to be the floor, especially given the meltdown in oil and the unbelievable resilience in the yellow metal.
-Phil
What a crock of shit. Now the fed is going to back credit cards and consumer debt? WTF. How much money do they actually have. How much money will they continue to print and stick the bill with the tax payer. There is no way that a higher tax on those that make over 250k is going to pay for this and the new stimulus along with Obama’s welfare- ugh- tax cut plan for those that don’t pay taxes. The tax plan will have to be expanded. Get ready for 26% cap gains and dividend taxes. Along with taxes on hedge funds.
fire up the printing presses and stick it to the tax payer
Just Thinking,
I see the Costanza trade but I also cannot get myself to buy the retailers — they all suck pigeon dick. I’ll continue to buy the dip and sell the rip in my favorite precious metal names. It makes more sense from my end of the trade.
Of course PIMCO loves this plan! They own a lot of the shit that the govt. is backing
Forget about the fact that you were born into debt and let it go.
Stay focused on the immediate targets of what is going to go up and what is going to go down. There will be no revolution casting the moneylenders aside. Take advantage of the ride up.
Phil
If you think the Citi deal is as dilutive as the AIG, you’re either ignorant of both deals or plain stupid.
AIG’s shareholders were 80% diluted. So stop being an idiot.
LM going down
FXP staying above $60, this etf is bananas.
The Fly,
You may be god of the markets, but I am shorting this market as soon as I think its safe. Fine. Let it rip higher. I hope it goes up another 500 points today. I WILL SHORT THE HELL OUT OF IT.
You getting more bullish is my indicator to get even more short. No way we go up 1500 points in this shit economy without giving it back. This isnt a V bottom. We dont know when we get out of this recession/depression. 5 days ago you went shopping and THE WORLD WAS ENDING OMG. Now? OMG everything nice and green and nothing is wrong.
G’day.
POS: Gonna get short soon.
T MOE – Are you surprised? This is exactly the setup the fed wanted. After a two day rally, they announce a freakin huge hammer to the shorts. Somebody needs to cover and the market goes higher.
Yes, I’m partially “talking my book”, since I’m long from a bit higher up, but I would NOT want to be short under any circumstances. Either follow Phil and sit on your hands or Fly and be long.
Pete = Fed roadkill
Another bailout…Fed Fuckery continues. Amazing market…so hard to trade it…rules changing so fast.
Best long bet right now is the company that makes ink for the Treasury printing presses…looking for that symbol now…
JT
Looks like fly is making some egregious gains on C in premarket.
I almost hit the buy button at 5.6 but had some other holdings I wanted to keep. Oh well, maybe on a dip sometime.
Well, for my part, I can only buy TBL boots. It’s not because I like to go to the tard malls, I don’t.
TBL are the only shoes that are both comfortable and they last twice as long as any other hiking boot.
Yea, well I own Sorrel’s and the old shit kickin’ steel toe, but those are not for everyday use and so last for years.
Make a friend at TBL and shake them down at ‘friends and family’ day.
No I’m not buying TBL, just their shoes.
Yogi-
I am about 80% cash right now and 20% short. some shorts on SPY and others on certain names. Getting my teeth kicked in right now, but if we see another blast off today I am going to add a little to my SPY shorts. IMO this is unsustainable. Bear market rallies are often big and fast, but like the rally we saw at the end of October it will fizzle and be hammered down to earth. The long term trend is still lower
Pete, I might short it too after the squeeze is done and the followup rally is over. That won’t be until january for me though at the earliest
T MOE – Be careful. That’s all. Remember the Fed has unlimited ammunition, even if it means lot’s ‘O’ inflation later on.
Thoughtless,
Your name does you justice. Now go buy some more Citigroup, fuckface.