On the backs of an egregiously large Chinese stimulus package, commodity related stocks should respond favorably.
Thinking fast, without traveling into the future to see what my stocks will do, tomorrow, I will probably cover some shorts, sell [[REW]] , [[SDS]] and [[DUG]] , and then do a 180 and get long [[UYM]] and more [[UYG]] .
You can never be long enough banks. So, I figure, might as well do it in style, via 200% upside etf.
As for [[EEV]] and [[FXP]] :
They will be my primary hedges, since they have the most value, down at these levels. So, I do not care if they gap lower, for I will be accumulating them.
Personally, I think today’s stimulus was baked into Friday’s tape. We shall see tomorrow.
Things to get long:
Okay, here’s where the Godliness of The PPT comes in handy. Aside from [[UYM]] , I might get long blocks of a variety of basic resource names, like Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] , Southern Copper Corporation (USA) [[PCU]] or The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] or not.
I have not decided on my buy list yet.
At any rate, here are the top 3 rated stocks, in the sectors that I am most interested in (life is all about short cuts):
Major Integrated Oil & Gas
BP plc (ADR) [[BP]] Chevron Corporation [[CVX]] Exxon Mobil Corporation [[XOM]]
Steel & Iron
Ternium S.A. (ADR) [[TX]]
Gerdau SA (ADR) [[GGB]]
ArcelorMittal (ADR) [[MT]]
Farm & Construction Machinery
Bucyrus International, Inc. [[BUCY]] Astec Industries, Inc. [[ASTE]] Joy Global Inc. [[JOYG]]
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Schlumberger Limited [[SLB]] Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc. [[HLX]] Dawson Geophysical Company [[DWSN]]
Shipping
DryShips Inc. [[DRYS]]
Seacor Holdings, Inc. [[CKH]]
TBS International Limited [[TBSI]]
Agricultural Chemicals
American Vanguard Corp. [[AVD]] Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. [[TNH]] Compass Minerals International, Inc. [[CMP]]
Now, if the rally fizzes out, ignore this post and throw a copy of it into a burning barrel of garbagio. However, if the market is going to boot stomp higher, based upon renewed Chinese optimism, the above stocks will lead the way.
NOTE: For those of you who are curious about The PPT, here is an excellent summary, penned by my IT guy/partner.
NOTE II: Titans are now 9-0. In other words, “The Fly” wins again.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
What’s the PPT got in the way of coal names?
Do you have any money left after your egregious longs in stocks that went down (like BEAV) and
shit like FXP which crashed?
UYG to 20…giddyup!
Sandwich Server,
Have you no idea about how to run money? Fly has been very specific, at least 30 times, about his allocations. He will rarely have one position equal more than 5% of his total capital.
Just for fun, lets run some hypotheticals. Lets pretend Fly has a 5% position in BEAV and FXP. So, for a 100K account, that would be 10K total. Now, lets say that both position decline by 25%. The value of both positions is now 7500. So, how much is Fly’s overall account value drawn down? Only 2.5%
And that is assuming that other positions do not go up.
See, everything does make sense, after all.
AVD is for homos.
Ahhh, now any PPT questions can be linked to Jeremy’s awesome summarized description. Well done.
Fly, I meant to say, this is an egregiously outrageously good post.
This move in China was indeed baked in – that’s why China reversed positive so strongly late last week. The news leaked early. There’s no other explanation for why FXI and FXP move so much on no news at all.
My best guess is that FXP has already priced in a 600 pt move in Hang Seng tonight (don’t ask, it’s my secret proprietary software). As I write this, the Hang Seng is up about 600ish. If it closes here, FXP opens flat tomorrow. The thing about FXP is that it has a way of jumping up and punching sellers’ coolie hats off even when it appears that all is well in China.
Bottom line: go eat a sandwich. FXP back to $100+ in a few days.
I’m with MD.
Only 2.5% of the total stimulus is coming this quarter.
OK, shithead sandwich sucker fails the IQ of 70 test. Please report to Muckdog’s 4th tier blog, loser!
I don’t know where to begin,I don’t want you to think
I’m pro communism, there is no real communism any more.
it’s more like com inc.
every year i’ve been going to my uncles farm,way in the
inteior,had to walk 1/2 Hr in off the road.[ bear with me]
those old trains i laughed about, all gone.
when i go up as idid this year, over the past 5 years
new roads, no 1/2hr hike and cars, ya cars.
70% of the home in the village are new including the one
i built for my uncle. bathrooms same as america baby
i shit you not.
real estate in S china go ahead of itself but thats a global problem. same same.
the stock market is entering a tecn. bottom now the
gov will begin its move for domestic long term market.
people over here work 6, 7 days a week and remember
hunger, americain ignorance about china is extreme.
while i study whats happening in the USA more than
most americans.
I have no axe to grind love the USA
but please do nt underestimate the resolve of China inc
when they want to they can make thins happen. thnx.
FXP is a minor holding of mine. My bigger inverse bets are in REW and EEV, both up big from my basis.
As for BEAV:
I’m down a buck. Big fucking deal.
Assholes:
I am up 60%+ with 20%+ in cash. Don’t fuck with the man who rides in time machines.
Top rated coal:
YZC, BHP, FDG
Fly what does PPT rate CPSL?
Chopped N Skrewed – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjTBH4_4pO0
Hang Seng morning buzz wearing off..
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=HSI%3AIND
cpsl:
Debt/Equity 5
PEG Ratio 5
Price/Book 5
Price/Sales 5
Profit Margin 4
Sub Rosa 0.1
Final Score 4.90
PPT Recommendation: Strong Buy
Accumulation Distribution 1
Price Performance 1
Relative Strength 1
Volatility 5
Volume 1
Sub Rosa 0
Final Score 1.20
PPT Recommendation: Strong Sell
2.87
Sell
I have been monitoring the Asian opens and after an early pop, they are falling back – not too impressive. China expected to announce 20% drop in exports for October this week. Fly is playing a different game from most people here – most people cannot shift gears and try to catch every zig zag of the market. This roller coaster action is now up 2 days and down 2 days – if FXP is down tomorrow, not to worry – back up Tuesday and Wednesday.
h share +7.19
fxi +6.70
holding that HK short ?? …. software is for salamanders!
the PPT can’t save you.
Thanks!
Technically, HK is a great short.
lunch break:
h shares +8.20
fxi + 7.41
+ steel,copper coal cement const ferts power farm equip
I get the feeling a lot of folks haven’t heard about the Commi-Stimulus package yet.
Hmm… crazy futures going to be UP manana.
MOS ready for a foray into the high $40’s
I will NEVER cover my HK short. As a matter of fact, I will “fortune cookie” it.
Jeremy, get to it!!
Fly whats the Rating for Bhp in that system?
I grounded my son. I hope you are having a peaceful night without a 12 year old calling you names.
Buy education stocks..APOL, EDU
the photoshopped ‘iranian missle test’ pic
BHP
Debt/Equity 5
PEG Ratio 5
Price/Book 4
Price/Sales 5
Profit Margin 5
Sub Rosa 0.2
Final Score 5.05
PPT Recommendation: Strong Buy
Accumulation Distribution 1
Price Performance 1
Relative Strength 1
Volatility 3
Volume 3
Sub Rosa 0
Final Score 1.50
PPT Recommendation: Strong Sell
Hybrid Score
3.1
Buy
lmfao, love it.
If china needs to raise $586 billion do you think they hold a Chinese style yuan T-bill auction or sell their US$ T-bills instead? As a nation that valuse savings I bet tehy sell dollars like they were yesterday’s newspapers.
The US invests over $1 trillion in financial bailouts while China plans to build infrastructure with their money. What do you think is a better long term investment for a nation?
FLY’s right again. REW is a scalded dog, gonna continue running higher at least through 2Q09. Enjoy the climb.
But I do like my exceptional TLAB bet. Not a hedge. Their patents & research library alone looks like $7+/sh to these eyes.
Tally ho !
nncoco;
China doesn’t have to sell any bonds to raise the cash. I told you this before and you obviously haven’t listened. They will simply draw on their US$2 trillion reserves. They also have a budgets surplus they can use.
Fly
Just so understand it.
BHP
Debt/Equity 5 5 is highest
PEG Ratio 5 ditto
Price/Book 4 ditto Almost
Price/Sales 5 ditto
Profit Margin 5 Ditto
Sub Rosa 0.2 Explain
Final Score 5.05 Explain
PPT Recommendation: Strong Buy OK
Accumulation Distribution 1 Explain
Price Performance 1 Explain
Relative Strength 1 Explain
Volatility 3 Explain
Volume 3 Explain
Sub Rosa 0 Refer Above?
Final Score 1.50 Expalin
PPT Recommendation: Strong Sell Refer above
Hybrid Score Explain
3.1
Buy OK how strong?
Karen Tso looking HOT tonight…shirt unbuttoned 1/2-way down her chest – definitely stimulus for my package.
Yea
She looks good hey.
J:
BHP is very strong fundamentally. However, as you know, the price action has been wretched.
The price action has driven shares so low, that the current fundamentals are now in the top 10 of all stocks traded.
The sliding stock has improved p/b, p/s, peg ratios to a point to spit out a buy rating (anything over 3.0 is a buy).
Understand, 3.1 is a very weak buy, but points to a potential bottom fish, considering the strong fundies. With any strength, the technicals will firm up, making BHP an strong buy.
Sub rosa includes a variety of factors, such as ROE, divis, price correlation of stock to treasuries, currencies, commodities, etc. Also, I reserve the right to penalize or credit scores for reasons that cannot be predicted now, such as natural disasters, war or terrorism.
For the technicals, I suggest defining them using investpedia or some shit. They are all common metrics.
However, we use a different twist on everything. Acc/dist, for example, values stocks that close near their respective daily highs greatly. I stretched that time period out over several days.
So, let’s say BHP closes at a 3 day high on Thursay: it is likely to get a 3-5 on acc/dist, based upon how close it was to the high.
Look them up.
All of this stuff will be detailed upon launch.
Ok…
On top of only 2.5% being spent this quarter, note that when the State Council, China’s cabinet, authorised Rmb4,000bn ($586bn) of investment on infrastructure and social welfare over the next two years, it did not say how much of the spending would be on new projects not already in the budget.
Infrastructural spending in the 5 year plan for 2006-2010 was Rmb5,100bn, so let’s average it out and say Rmb1,275bn per year would be spent.
That’s Rmb2,550bn already targeted for 2009 and 2010, so if “new” stimulus includes the already budgeted amount, the “new” stimulus amounts to Rmb2,450bn…which is definitely less than today’s announced Rmb4,000bn.
Since they’re only blowing 2.5% of the (larger) total this quarter, are they announcing today’s big number for cosmetics and taking a wait and see attitude on actual spending?
A yuan doesn’t go far as it used to, and there are probably a lot more hands to grease as it travels into the Party hierarchy before emerging in a pile of asphalt or rail line somewhere…
J, no deflation …. WTF?
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/04/unstoppable-credit-contraction.html
Saville: In conclusion, it is clear that inflation is still occurring in the US (and pretty much everywhere else, for that matter), albeit at a reduced rate.
Mish: In conclusion, I do not see evidence supporting Saville’s conclusion!
I feel he’s failed to mark credit to market, to state why credit will not contract greater than central banks’ attempt to inflate, to account for global wage arbitrage, walk-aways, boomer retirement and a shift away from consumption, $500 trillion of derivatives that can never be paid back and a secular shift from consumption to saving.
I see no explanation of how consumers and businesses are going to pay back debts in a world of declining real wages, wealth concentration at the extreme high end of the spectrum, global wage arbitrage, declining home prices, rising unemployment, overcapacity at every corner, and insane overbuilding of both commercial and residential real estate.
Mish comes down on the side of deflation and I have to agree …. no doubt things have changed somewhat since this was written in April and all the liquidity will rear it’s head at some point but not for 12-18 months anyway …
Jog On!
Haha … laughing at myself for doing the cut & paste thing.
More c&p from OEW weekend review:
“Our OEW count on the SPX suggested a week ago, that the last downtrend of Primary wave A had ended with a 5th wave diagonal triangle at SPX 845. This is still our view. The bear market from October 2007 has thus far taken the form of a double three: ABC into the January low (1270), an ABC up to the May high (1440), and an ABC into the October low (840). In OEW terms this is an ABC consisting of three Major waves which complete Primary wave A. We do not count bear markets as impulse waves because they are simply corrections to larger bull markets. We should also mention that we are carrying an alterante count using the DOW charts. This alternate count suggests five waves down into the March low, a counter-trend rally, and then three waves down into the recent low. The difference between the counts counts would be the end of Primary wave A only. It still suggests a corrective ABC-type bear market. At the recent low the market, on some technical levels, was the most oversold it had been since 1974. Also a nasty bear market. This suggests a significant low, of some degree, was made recently. Typically after this type of low, a rally should follow retracing 38.2% to 50.0% of the entire bear market. This suggests a rally between SPX 1120 and SPX 1210 should be underway. These two levels also align with the long term pivots of SPX 1107 and SPX 1179 we have been discussing. Therefore, SPX 1107 is our initial target for this rally, with SPX 1179 also in play.”
SHORT TERM: rally underway
“Support for the SPX is currently at 912 and then 848, with resistance at 935 and then 961. Short term momentum is rising after reaching an extremely oversold condition on thursday. Positive divergences remain in place on a short term basis, medium term basis, with an extremely oversold condition on a long term basis. Our technical indicators have worked well during the bull and bear markets, as have the OEW pivots. Currently the foreign markets are leading the US indices. Hong Kong rallied 43% off its low, the NIKK 36%, DAX 33%, the FTSE 24%, and the SPX only 19%. Suggest keeping an eye on the foreign markets during this rally.”
Thanks for the explanation fly.
I don’t know guys
fxi may be going back to an april like pattern
some of these stocks are up over 20% and no
where over bought. stoch just crossing over
this could have legs. wait and see the pull back.
Employee 8
I see no explanation of how consumers and businesses are going to pay back debts in a world of declining real wages, wealth concentration at the extreme high end of the spectrum, global wage arbitrage, declining home prices, rising unemployment, overcapacity at every corner, and insane overbuilding of both commercial and residential real estate.
Mish is a fucking idiot. I stopped reading the fool long ago.
We have problems sure, but he simply puts a too dark hat on everything.
What the fuck global wage arbitrage. The fucking idiot thinks that on wage rates count. If that was the case you could hire everyone in Sub-Saharan Africa for a dime a day. IT doesn’t happen because wage rates are not the only determining factor.
A shift from spending to saving is actually a good thing as to save is to spend. The dude is a Keynesian nutball.
wealth concentration at the extreme high end of the spectrum
Okay so he’s basically saying we “should spread the wealth around”
Fucking idiot.
Ignore fruitcakes especailly Keynesian ones.
For those wondering, Jake is still grounded. No internet. Y’all sleep in peace.
Sorry Fly, been busy but here with a simple call:
Follow the USD/CAD chart, as its forming a nice Head & Shoulder Pattern: What does this tell us?
A a rising CAD versus the USD for a month parameter.
B a formidable support of Oil
In other news, gold will descend to 650 by December, even with rising commodities in the short term until the second round of currency-related turmoil.
Any one know of a good way to invest in yuan currently, legally if you are a US citizen? fixed if possible.
CYB
You can buy artificially created forward yuan from you friendly currency broker.
But why as it isn’t going to move anywhere and the forwards more or less bite into any potential appreciation.
CYB looks better than CNY. CYB had about 3M shares traded Nov 4 whereas the shares float is about 8M. Hmmm.
Anyone see my boy?
Fly, r way out of money nov calls on DRYS a good idea?
Lets just say our chinese warlords know that during economic booms around the world, competitive (cheap) currency is better whereas our current future (slowing demand and staying in control for a while) is the perfect time to reevaluate the currency to reduce globally-initiated inflation. All in all, chinese citizens will not be surprised with huge (US-led) inflation again as their gov’t is dynamic, smart/evil genius.
Long story short, currency MAY be allowed to appreciated by the government to reduce the effect of world rate cuts so in their still positive growth environment inflation will remain “in control”. Plus there SEEMS to be no downside to yuan since asian countries are opening doors (ie india w/ japan , india w/ china, pak w/ china) so the chinese toys+ can find more buyers. Remember, china already has too many financial favors to the west, now it want to influence their surrounding countries as they in the past have been very nationalist (ie india vs china)
Again this is one just an alternative to our CASH in USD,JPY.
I’ll be baaack! McCain in 2012 ! It has a ring, don’t ya think?
Vote for me in 2016.
Japan’s core machinery orders posted their biggest quarterly fall in a decade in July-September and manufacturers expect only a small rebound in the last quarter of the year, boding ill for capital investment as the economy teeters on the brink of recession.
Sounds kind of familiar. Japan was up today with the Announcement from China, but IMO they are fucked. EWJ looks ripe and ready to be banged on.
I can’t believe the Govt. is going to throw more money at AIG. $24 billion loss? What the fuck? More of tax money is going to be wasted. There is no band aid bigger enough to stop the bleeding. It is not merely a flesh wound. they need to sell assets and fast. Who is going to buy those shitty assets?
Govt. taking more equity in another private enterprise. Where will it stop?
DevilDogs idol on Cnbc now. Special guest – Nouriel Roubini
Time to rally when they stroll out the big bad bears.
moe
Japan will eventually return to quantitative easing. Their stock market will go up (possibly) simply because people will eventually have nowhere to go.
You guys simply don’t get it. Stocks are priced in paper money- fiat currency.
J
Do you mean no where to go with capital?
fly,
i have approx 2k shares of FCX from 2 weeks ago. I also wrote the 35 Nov calls against it.
how many fxp should i buy to hedge. i just bought 100 2 minutes ago at 67.20
thanks in advance!
Yes. Moe.
we saw that last time when their economy was in even worse shape.
That’s what will slowly happen around the world. I’m not for a minute saying that it will be a healthy thing. That stocks will go up because the world is rosy.Not saying anything like that. I’m saying that people will look at this as not having any choice but to go into stocks.
There are few more pennies to drop. The Fed will have to go lower, the Euros have to get their act together and the Japs will go to zero interest rate policy.
If there are no other major accidents we will go a lot higher in stocks.
pretty good article by ERic Bolling.
hes buying uso and gld
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10446869/1/bolling-obamanomically-correct.html
That grandson of mine has gone missin’…………
j, you’re still an idiot. Nobody has any fiat currency to buy stocks. It is very hard to believe how stupid you are. I guess that degenerate, criminal gene pool in australia will influence many more generations of low IQ people down there. I’ve raised my SSF to 30 times now to account for aussies.
Dog:
Get back in your kennel and Stfu. I’m sick of your barking.
There’s a monetary expansion going on, you douchebag, of pretty historic proportions. it may not hit your pocket as your too stupid to pick any up.
here, moron what do you think this means.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aatlky_cH.tY&refer=worldwide
The fed has lent out 2 trillion dollars and there would be more too from where that came from. We are no longer dealing with “real” money as it’s going to turn into worthless crap like that stuff you deposit on people’s lawns when you get taken out on a leash. the days of stable money are over.
You’ll thank me for this advice one day.
Gold and oil are sub rosa so far today (and copper too).
GM has more like been torpedoed by a sub rosa.
DD, remind us how much leverage short you are again?
There’s my sonny boy doggy…quit playing in the mud of doom and don’t be shy…come out and play with the big boys even though the game has changed.
Is Barney Frank an idiot or what. That gay fucker has got to go. What are the idiots in Massachusetts thinking.
Frank said the Fed shouldn’t reveal the assets it holds or how it values them because of “delicacy with respect to pricing.” He said such disclosure would “give people clues to what your pricing is and what they might be able to sell us and what your estimates are.” He wouldn’t say why he thought that information would be problematic.
Why would it not be problematic Barney, come on tells us we would all like to know. You don’t know you fucking idiot
Hulbert says the financial newsletter writers have not thrown in the towel – a bottom is when a majority decide to become bearish and it has not happened yet – Chinese said to have thrown $40 bill into the Olympics and that earthquake must have cost tens of billions – Lehman wanted to combine with AIG two years ago – what a monstrosity that would have been!
T MOE is right on Frank.
Nyek, Nyeck, Nyeck.
Total consumer lending outstanding from the St louis fed.
Has it fallen this year. NOPE.
2007-12-31 2521.4
2008-01-31 2530.5
2008-02-29 2541.5
2008-03-31 2554.1
2008-04-30 2564.2
2008-05-31 2571.1
2008-06-30 2580.0
2008-07-31 2587.5
2008-08-31 2581.2
2008-09-30 2588.1
Hey T Moe, this country just elected someone who attended a muslim school in Indonesia and ate dog and snake and grasshoppers – said the grasshoppers were “crunchy”. Also, he believes there are 57 states.
Food for thought:
The markets seem to be finding strength in the face of bad news.
Link to the St louis fed’s monetary analysis study.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/20081101/mtpub.pdf
NOT one monetary aggregate has turned down. In fact the monetary base is at a 90 degree angle.
So how is there going to be deflation when M1, M2, M3 and the monetary base are all up with the monetary base big time.
Where’s the money going dog? How the fuck is there going to be deflation when the aggregates are all pointing up, you foolish foolish canine.
This whole AIG thing has to be a joke. The govt. will come back asking more money for the TARP program and call it a different name. Mark my words. They will say they are going to increase taxes even more. On the wealthy of course. By that time those making more than $100k will be deemed wealthy
SWHC is sub rosa this AM. Plenty of gun sales the last few months because you know who (not allowed to mention the name on this site) was elected.
He hates the 2d amendment.
So FXP’s decline was “built in” on Friday?
My BULLISH ASS, Fly.
I will be posting my $300K LONG FOR THE LONG HAUL portfolio in the next thread.
Meanwhile, you Dumfuks keep shorting and day trading during this LONG TERM BUYING OPPORTUNITY OF A LIFETIME! You guys like Devildog and Cap couldn’t find your ass with both hands, let alone recognize a BEAR MARKET BOTTOM!
You really don’t know it’s a bottom, Shit sand.
It feels like it but you still have to be careful.
I truly don’t understand how any of you don’t see the importance of the Chinese policy change. It’s a momentous decision; one of truly historic proportions that will be remembered for a long time coming.
The Chinese have basically told us -forget the stimulus package for a moment)… they have told us that they are moving their economy from export orientation to full steam domestic led consumption. They are going to stimulate this through a fiscal package and act aggressively hard on the easing monetary policy.
This is hugely fucking bullish on raw materials prices and actually bearish long term US interest rates as they are not going to be a big swing buyer any longer.
This will change the shape of the world for a long time coming.
What to do…
Sell the fucking long end of the US interest rate market, buy raw materials companies and buy the Aussie and Canada.
Lastly fuck dog and ignore the douchebag.
Though I said I wouldn’t do it, I couldn’t help myself. I bought a little FXP at 67.
Goldman very weak in this big market gap up. Is their next quarter loss already baked in?
When the markets truly digest the incompetent gay goatfucker clown that would be defined as “president” of the collapsing superpower called USA, S&P will go below 500.
FXP is getting murdered again… I hope our positivity is going to pay off. I hate seeing red in with that many digits on my screen. Any reassurance is great ha ha ha
” j Says: (DUMFUKEDLY)
You really don’t know it’s a bottom,Shit sand.”
Have you tried to find your ass with BOTH hands over the least 3-4 days, j ?
Even my fuckin’ DOG knows we are at a bottom.
So the fuck WHAT if the market prints 8000 or
8500? The parabolically beaten – down stocks
are BUYS OF A LIFETIME.
Quit this fuckin’ shorting and day trading.
Or your dick will get even shorter.
Covered some of my goldman shorts that I had been holding for quite a while. Covered at 72.88. Still holding some shorts until they show me something
j
forget it. they can’t understand
they still think chairman Mao is running things
Shit Sand:
Don’t be so hostile. Are you Dog’s mirror image? I’m actually not bearish an would only day trade short. I think the market is going up.
Shit Sandwich you really sound like a broken record. We all know that valuations are low. However there is still pain to come, and there are still companies to attack. To me with this amount of volatility day trading and swing trading make sense. I hold very few longs, very few. Mostly commodity plays. In full disclosure I am a perma-bear always have been. Always looking for weak companies and markets. To me they are easier to find than strong companies because all too often you can’t trust the numbers
Moe
What GS’s story why are they getting fucked.
Howard Lindzon thinks they’ve blown up…(no longer making the big bucks). They are now at the issue price and will start losing their best people to boutiques. Not sure about that though as the market isn’t that big anymore.
Geithner is a leaky douche. Warsh is only a wee bit saner:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20081106a.htm
“Selling volatility and insuring tail risks are far riskier propositions than many imagined.”
Duh.
“… if private market participants prove unable or unwilling to establish new business models, then the effects of the current financial market turmoil may be a significant drag on economic growth long after stability is ostensibly achieved.”
PRIVATE, being the operative word there. They will continue to be unwilling, and rightly so, IMO.
Let’s review what happened to the Pound, after the late 1940s, shall we?
Bunch of cackling hens…………..
uyg could post 5 before end of year. That wiil probably be the bottom for Big Brother.
Is there a potential Costanza trade in GM at some point?
GS is a leverage story. Has been for the past few months. They are also losing business from hedgies. With their new classification of a bank holding company they will not be able to leverage for their prop trading. If you look at their biggest quarters of earnings and revs. most of it came from prop trading and the leverage they used.
They are the best run and smartest team on the street.Don’t get me wrong, they will come back, but IMO not until they show they can make money using less leverage and until the IPO business and M&A business improves
With AIG sucking more money from the TARP how much will be left after the infusion to the banks and the buying of the shitty assets? Will they have to go back to congress and ask for more. My bet is yes
Thanks moe
TED spread is now down to 1.88 from 2 and change on friday.
The FLY is already being distracted by his “magic” PPT software, aka self destruction.
This guy Liddy from AIG “Our assets are wonderful assets” WTF? then sell them and stop asking us for more money. Your assets are shit shit shit. thats why they have gone down in value. Being the salesman he is, he is trying to sell the story to CNBC. The government fell prey we all know that they are idiots.
$150 bill to AIG is 25% of the Chinese “package” – they are pikers. The FED has 2 $trill in loans and is keeping the details secret. This must be part of the new global community that everyone is now part of – it’s wonderful, no? I hope that my fellow world citizens in Australia will kindly increase iron ore shipments to China – not cut them as announced. One day this week will be the China no. report of 20% decline in exports in Oct. alone. Come on, world citizens, buy Chinese! Personally, I have never liked Chinese food – but you buy their stuff.
Sell the fucking long end of the US interest rate market, buy raw materials companies and buy the Aussie and Canada.
I’m long TBT and BHP. Odd, no?
_____________
It appears I’ve caught myself a barnacle. How flattering that I was missed.
Anonymous shithead Barnacle, just fyi — I am a lamb compared to my mother. She runs pukes like you over with her riding lawnmower without disturbing the ash off her Benson & Hedges 100.
You’ll have to step it up.
_______
forget it. they can’t understand
they still think chairman Mao is running things.
While I agree w. your investment thesis, I’ll also say this.
The worst day for the U.S. economy will the day the continental Chinese finally put the Chairman behind them.
________
j Says:
NOT one monetary aggregate has turned down. In fact the monetary base is at a 90 degree angle.
So how is there going to be deflation when M1, M2, M3 and the monetary base are all up with the monetary base big time.
Where’s the money going dog? How the fuck is there going to be deflation when the aggregates are all pointing up, you foolish foolish canine.
November 10th, 2008 at 9:17 am
j, you really are dumber than dirt. All the fake money is going into black holes called AIG, CDS & CDO never to be seen again along with current and future American sheepeople, taxpayers. BTW, S&P is going much, much lower. Hope you stay long like the ignorant aussie dumb fuck you are. Now go back to your kangaroo cock sucking.