As you know, “The Fly” is in the business of making money for rich people. Even though many of you are destitute poor guys with less than a pot to piss in; I am going to give you some high end advice.
The markets are severely oversold. Using all fundamental metrics, one must get long into this carnage. The problem is the fear of systemic failure, which may lead to rampant protectionism and the end of globalization as we know it.
So, with that pleasant thought in mind, here’s what I am doing:
On an account size of 1million, I have 500k in double inverse etf’s, like [[SKF]] or [[SRS]] . In addition, I am going long deeply oversold commodity stocks, for two reasons:
1. Dollar strength is overdone.
2. Valuations are rifuckulous.
My buy list includes The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , Occidental Petroleum Corporation [[OXY]] and Chevron Corporation [[CVX]] .
When buying stocks, in this tape, I am using a “legging in” approach. Meaning: if I intend to purchase 2,000 shares of a stock, I will execute that one trade in 250-500 share increments over an entire day, or in some cases multiple days. There is nothing wrong with waiting for the market to subside. And, there is nothing wrong with missing the exact bottom.
Out of 1million, my long equity exposure is approximately 40%, or 400k, leaving 10% or 100k in cash.
Here’s the dicey part:
On a whim of a major directional shift, I will deploy the 100k, or even lever up, and get long a double upside etf, like [[DIG]] or [[ROM]] .
Regarding my inverse etf’s, I will likely reduce my short exposure early next week, barring a complete collapse in the market.
The point of the game is survival. Cash is king, but entirely pointless. If you are going to attempt to navigate this tape, put your biases aside and protect your downside.
Now fuck off.
NOTE: Today I closed out my [[FXY]] position. That trade is also overdone.
NOTE II: Of course to pull off such a strategy, as mentioned above, timing is everything. Luck for me, I have a fucking time machine.
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What happened to the trap? I’m just standing here holding a big, raw rib-eye steak over my head and waiting for that bear. Can I throw the steak on the grill and go buy stocks now?
JMHO:
A beautiful explosion at the close!
Thanks for throwing a bone to us little guys. For all the fuckery in these comments, know that the time you put into this is greatly appreciated.
Rampant protectionism leads to depression. i don’t know how to work a shotgun.
Good strategy Fly! What do you call such a scheme?
Or you can have guts and iron stomach like me and go naked long INTC and CMG.B, like a REAL man.
Just my two cents, we will see protectionism and wars and all that classic bear market shit, but it will be after this glorious rally that is nigh upon us.
I appreciate the rich man’s advice, as I’m “legging in” to a higher tax bracket and I’m having to pay much more attention to my positioning.
FLY, you strategy puts your account -60% beta net short. You will get your head ripped off in the coming rally.
Closing out FXY due to Jimmy Rogers advise?
I think he calls it “money management”
No. I don’t listen to advice. I am selling because the move has been made.
Mr.Eb
Not if I am quick to deploy my cash and use leverage, if needed.
Plus anyway, the market is going down, fuckface.
NEWSFLASH.
CMG.B rocking the house. People still eat burritos during a depression I say.
Fly calls this strategy “fucktarded”.
Neither long nor short. On a violent downturn he loses his arse in the commodity stock longs, and on a quick uptrend he gets his ass handed to
him on a platter as SKF and SRS drop 10% to 20%
in a matter of minutes.
In other words he CAN’T make money. So why not
be in cash?
CMG.B trading at 11Xs my 2009 EPS number ex-cash. Which is awesome for the best growth story in restaurants. I think they can grow 15% on just adding new stores for years, even during depression.
Asshole:
Do the numbers right now. You will be glad to see I am up.
Cash is for fucking idiots. How many times do I have to demonstrate my superior money management skills?
Seriously, how many times before you shut your fucking face?
You are a puss.
I am “all in” bitches!
The Fly is God.
you guys have lost so much with your all in shtick it’s fuckin comical, not funny.
God told me market going rally huge next few weeks. Shorts will be fried extra crispy.
On a turn, commodity stocks will book 20% gains in a day. Write it down.
Yep, me too, I always use double inverse ETFs when worried about a total systemic collapse. ::rolls eyes::
Come on, admit it, you guys wish you were me.
You can say it.
Where is CAP? I need him to make a wager.
I need CAP too. CAP please say the same thing you said yesterday.
Yes, I’m 175% SHORT. Be patient about SDP and have some faith. Anything worthwhile is worth waiting for. Our culture is too hooked on instant gratification which is another reason we’re in this mess. Those that start to behave against the characteristics of our current fucked up culture will be the new rich. Can you here me now?
Thanks, Fly.
FLY:
I like the DIG call
I like the oils here. The only thing I am looking into going long. The only thing.
Still holding SPY puts and I’m going to hold them until we see the wash out. Maybe on Monday
Devildog, you do know what SDP is 2x inverse etf right? I hope you’re not actually 350% short.
DevilDog,
Your posts convinced me to buy a couple hundred shares of SDP yesterday. Sold them this morning for a quick 10%. Thanks for bringing it to my attention. Best of luck with yours.
Everybody thinks the market is set to rip higher from oversold levels. Funny. Look at the BRIC charts. They looked oversold when they were down 30%, down 40%, down 50%, down 60%, down 70%, and now down 80% in the case of Russia.
What happens at the global economic summit on Nov. 15th? Is that when they start the process of creating a new global financial system, ala Bretton Woods? If so, what happens with the dollar?
That 40 acre farm in Iowa with 5 cows, 9 pigs, 37 chickens and a goat looks better all the time, assuming they let us keep our property after the system is rebuilt.
Just prepare for a horrible close, and a gap lower on Monday.
Quit debating me and do yourself a favor and understand: my DNA is superior to yours.
I post advice, not for my good, but for yours, despite not giving a rats ass about any of you.
Odd, no?
Wait for the big boys to come to the floor in an hour or so.
Devil:
thanks for reminding to be patient. My rush to take gains has caused me to leave a lot of $ on the table lately.
I don’t have to prepare for anything. I will ride this out and not get shaken out before the upcoming HUGE rally.
Mr Eb is an idiot.
Where’s Boca?
CNBC guest says s&p 500 earnings will drop from $91/sh to below $60/sh. (cough,cough,bullshit)
Fly will be squished or swatted.
Dog
you’re 175% short and you’re complaining about other people hooked on instant gratification? Dude.
What time do the margin clerks arrive?
Mr.Eb:
You don’t know my pedigree.
Fuck off.
And you don’t know mine, moron.
Those that start to behave against the characteristics of our current fucked up culture will be the new rich.
This sentence demonstrates both atrocious grammar and great wisdom.
Ride it out EB, if you did not sell yet you are too late
HA
I went long TWO days ago and have not sold. I covered my CC short yesterday (after a 35%+ gain in 4 days) so I’m naked long now.
Fly:
I heard the margin clerks have to be done by 3 today? But obviously they’ve been starting at 3ish with the selloffs and I know you said 2pm earlier. Any help on that?
Taking profits off SRS. Fly rules.
The margin clerks are part of the latest job cuts…BUY, BUY, BUY!!
I have 2 longs – CMG.B and INTC. I’m up on CMG.B and down 4.7% on INTC in 2 days. I will ride it out and do victory laps soon.
Children
Stop the squabbling or Anton will get his ruler out and give you two a gay smack across the bottom.
Stop picking on the Fly…DEVILDOG rules this roost now. Direct all inquiries to DD…the Fly has been reduced to a mere servant that is net neutral the market.
I fight back when someone punches me, what do you do?
Auswipe,
They’re making a new Hobbit movie just next door to you.
Go fluff an elf.
Monday October 27th – Black Monday. I know I have mentioned it before but I will again. The close today will be a beautiful sight ( if you’re short)
Come on Ants was I was just joshing and always have been. Lets be friends. Anyways let me be the first to break the ice and say you’re nice internet dude.
Tense day and I’m just kidding around.
When I see the vast majority of internet traders trying to short the market here, see record highs in the VIX, and record bull/bear %s newsletter ratings (most bearish ever)… awesome companies like Intel with 3.8% dividend yield, fortress balance sheet, no need of financing, and its best product cycle ever coming out in November.
I get bulled up and long.
Mr. EB this is not a normal market. All the indicators are getting tossed out. If this was a normal market we should have bottomed 2 weeks ago. Buts its not. Burn your indicators and get short now !
If we finish green today, CAP will give the rally monkey a blowjob, much to Dennis Kneale’s chagrin.
Wait, so you’re supposed to have a strategy in a market like this? No wonder I’m so fucked right now…
Now is the time to buy, Now is the time to buy. That’s all I have been hearing from all the idiots on CNBC. They have been saying that for two months now. What a joke
The land of beautiful stock prices…Gannett (GCI) 9.35, Masco (MAS) 10.36,UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 22.50
Fly:
Would you mind starting blocking IP’s of pure haters? They’re making yahoo finance boards look like Harvard classrooms at this point.
Couldn’t resist telling you to go fluff an elf.
At least I didn’t tell you to go CAP yourself.
___________________________
I’m off to interview a new CPA. If she doesn’t read iBC, forget it.
Best of luck to all.
Except for a couple of you who should die slow. With pain.
Joshing, as always.
The FOUR WORDS that are most costly to investors in history. “This time it’s different”
Yes Moe
They have been wrong for the past 6000 odd points. But at some stage they could be right. Talk is cheap.
Anton, glad you made some $s on SDP.
j, anyone watching SDP knows I’ve been above an way beyond the call of duty as far as being patient.
Fly- I’d just like to say THANKS! When you are ready, I plan on subscribing to your PPT service.
Anyone who is still a Fly hater, after all of his Godly advice, can go fuck a dozen eggs.
That is my last comment of the day.
Quit debating me and do yourself a favor and understand: my DNA is superior to yours.
This is largely correct. Those with the “split genes of Noo Yawk” — 50% Irish/50% Italian — are unusually blessed with a quick wit, stolid temperment and precocious abilities to wield quantum mechanical devices like time machines.
I post advice, not for my good, but for yours, despite not giving a rats ass about any of you.
It’s true. As a matter of record, at one time, the Board was contemplating changing the name of this blog to “Nasty Jesus.”
__________
GCI ha! that’s funny
Okay, let’s start the meeting….My name is Controller and I am a ticktard.
Where’s Boca?
—–
I was wondering the same, but I can guess.
Fly,
What an audible you called the other day. 666.
I’m not a fly hater. I actually love this blog and your writings, but sorry Fly, you are wrong here. Market is going to Fly! Pun intended.
this market could close only slightly down as I think the shorts are getting bored and it doesn’t look as though there a great deal of selling left.
That will be really interesting.
“That is my last comment of the day.”
[cough cough] Bullshit [cough cough]
Holy chit ! WTF. This is not happening. Go down. Faaaaaakkkkkkk…
Hey Jake,
I’m half Irish and half Italian, myself!
(The lower half is Italian.)
CAP has got one hand on the zipper and the other on the mouse. Odd, no?
Oh look I’m up 1% now when market is down 3.6%. Sounds good to me.
What if 2:30 PM comes and the Hedgies have nothing to sell?
But then again….
How bout a burnt toast rally!!!
Carter Worth CAPS himself on a daily basis,no?
Chipotle CMG.B kicking ass. Go burrito go.
CAP, relax. Have a drink, smoke a cigar.
clink….clink….clink….
Its so dry here, I open my humidor for 5 secs and humidity level cuts in half. unbelievable.
Either way, I win. Scientifically, my portfolio cannot lose.
Alpha, I am not, however. No Eyetal in my family, although I could probably recite by rote every Coppola and Scorsese masterpiece on record, so I must have some “entooziasms” (I know, that’s DePalma).
But no, I’m mostly Mick with an eighth Teutonic in the mix, for volatility and beer love.
_________
Let me tell you something. The problem with stocks is….. they’re stocks. (My Zen master told me that one).
Thud!…oops, sorry. That was a gold bar. Silly me.
clink…..clink…..clink…..
If any of you derelict gays are considering cashing out of your shorts at close and splurging on a pedicure and highlights, remember, almost every Monday over the past 5 weeks has opened down.
looks like its going to be quite an aristocratic close here.
look at pcu
almost green
Who’s tired of the “counting coins” schtick already?
(Raises hand).
Listen pal, you gotta come up with something new. You can be right or wrong here, but never boring.
________________
Oh here’s good news:
I just cracked my fortune cookie from today’s delicious greasy Chinee meal. It reads:
The current year will bring you much happiness!
I knew it!
(PS — the “Learn Chinese” word at the bottom under the lotto numbers is “Mei-Quo” which means — “America!”)
__________
Wow CAP, 25,000 shares traded on SDP (*crickets*)
Jake, check the date on that fortune cookie. It might be April 2003.
I am
CC, go clink your coins elsewhere…..
WHAM! (sound of door hitting “coins” in the ass)
Erin reads that wilted, prick fuck Charle Munger predicts a 10-15 year ‘Bull Run’. Meanwhile, his Wesco Financial is lower today than it was in 1997.
citadel conf call at 3:30.
hmmmmmm
The meltdown will be postponed until Monday, just to sucker in more buyers today.
Rally Monkey Please!
Here comes the 3pm crash.
Hello?? Hello?? Is anybody there???
Holy shit. CAP, are you ready for the rally monkey?
here comes the rally. bye bye bears.
Has anyone seen DEVILDOG’s profits on SDP…they were here a minute ago.
Rally coming
WTH? not again
Oh shit -IRRATIONAL EXHUBERANCE!! I’m shocked!
Come to daddy CAP! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
Manipulating the close higher to avoid margin calls?
Cap
Get ready dude. Lean over. Push down and take a deep breath: your going down fucker.
this fakeout rally is beautiful.
Just bought 300 shares of SDP @ $91.18.
The Love shack is a lil ol place where we can get together!…Tin roof….rusted….Love shack!
Bought 1.5K of CBS @ 7.85. FCF 2.2bb NetInc 1.25bb and Katie
AD …. nice picks (BHP, PBR, MOS, RIG, MON)
Thought you’d have FCX in there but BHP covers all the bases.
I may deviate some via MOS, CLF, NOV, FCX, PBR …
Thanks
Are the shorts getting margin calls or what ? This is fuct up.
I was selling calls on SKF SRS SMN FXP SDS all day long. I am closing out for fat profits. Buy some more SPY puts here.
People will be afraid to go home short after the market has shown such resilience in the face of a sure crash. Europe and Asia look to have overshot to the downside. Could be a wicked bounce Monday.
MOS and RIMM looking cheap.
Crash comes Monday or Tuesday. Don’t get cocky yet . This is yet another fake rally in order to debank the bulls. Give you hope and then pull the carpet from under. Its been happening the last month yet some how you guys actually think this is the bottom. Amazing …..
Oh look I’m up 3% today.
Mr. EB and his burrito trade are holding up….developing….
Mr. Market, as far as me being a I told you so I’m not going to do that to anyone except you. You have been on my ass big time and when I’m on my leased yacht sipping on $400 a bottle single malt I’m going to send you an I told you so message everyday on Fly’s site as long as he says it’s OK. Prepare to be the biggest stupid asshole in existence.
Bull market in burritos and computer chips. Who would of thunk it?
Rice (Asian chip manufacturers) and BEANS (burrito filling)
That’s my diet until we turn around…swimming in salt naturally…
Cap
the crash was supposed to be today. Everything was set up for it. Every market was down big time. The asians were all down big time. Next week things kick in and the Fed will cut rates.
This market should have crashed today and it didn’t.
moreover when everyone expects the crash it will never happen.
You young fuckers don’t know what the fuck a crash is like. Its not a fucking planned event where you walk into office in the morning and talk to your buddies about a crash over coffee and bagels.
A crash sneaks up on you when you least expect it.
DEVILDOG…as stupidly leveraged as you are…at best you will be cursing me as you get obliterated. Have you not learned anything?…leverage kills. And leverage with overuse of swagger will simply make your fall that much more of a spectacle.
DD=JJ
Anybody else catch Morgan Stanley analyst Harvey Fierstein on CNBC: “Mubai, Shanghai, Dubai or GOODBYE!” Maria high fives the Queeen having no idea what he’s talking about.
BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Anyone for a quick scalp on DUG into the close?
Went short more Goldman at 102
The waterfall drop at the close should be bought…hopefully revisiting this mornings lows as wobbly support…
barring of course nuclear war, terrorist attack, Fly’s first televised market report, yaddy yada…
Like yesterday Oils helping the Dow come back a little. XOM is almost positive after getting the shit beat out of her
Where the margin clerks at?
Wish they would get this thing over with and capitulate. This is longest %^$#k tease in the history of trading.
Icahn blowing out of all the funds he invested in
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=5937938
How bad is this old bastard