I am posting my closing comments 30 minutes before the close, mainly because the market is a lying whore. The late day price action is absolutely asinine, all thanks to margin clerks. I know these people and they are ruthless bastards.
However, as the market firms up, with time, the margin call selling will stop and volatility will decrease.
You know my game plan, which is to buy egregious amounts of The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , [[TBT]] and [[UYG]] , while holding ample supplies of cash.
While it’s true, I own a variety of stocks, but none as important as the ones above.
The credit markets are easing and that is definitely good. However, at the same time, global growth is collapsing, as demonstrated by the dot com-ish drop in the dry bulk shipping index.
Next week, in my opinion, the most important data is Chinese GDP (Monday). Should those red fuckers come in with a 7%+ numbers, saddle up, we’re going higher. However, anything less than 7% will scare the markets into panic.
Any gamblers?
On a strong Chinese number, get long Joy Global Inc. [[JOYG]] , Peabody Energy Corporation [[BTU]] , Bucyrus International, Inc. [[BUCY]] and other coal players. As you know, coal is the filthy fossil that keeps the Chinese engine running.
On the short side, any disappointments should be met with massive [[FXP]] and [[EEV]] buys.
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Sounds like you are serious about NOV
They need to hire this chick in the red shirt on CNBC right now!
No, I am fucking joking, while prancing around in a fucking long booted clown costume.
I think I soiled my undies.
+1 Boone. Fly, genius.
The Chinese GDP number is no gamble.
The provinces make their targets by pouring as much real cement as they can, and then they add as much make-believe cement pouring as they think they can get away with.
Then the central government massages the numbers down to something satisfying, without being alarming in one direction or another.
Henry Fool and the Fly are playing high stakes poker at my house tonight.
This market is gay.
Clown work rules…stocks suck
gonna close green
How realistic would it be to outlaw options? Do they serve any purpose to the market other then make it more erratic and give executives reasons to lie?
looks like sellers of CAT are guessing China’s numbers will be bad
If your color blind maybe….’)
or red. I swear.
you sure do whine a lot for a gen Xer…. trade what is there………….. opportunity is all around
Screw you guys, I’m going home.
Donny’s proceeds for the day 6.5%. Why? Because that’s life! Get it?
Donny reignites his position in DIG @ 30.12 and will wait for the pop to bank sick sums of coin next week! Fucking Sick!
Understand?
8)
Always bet on the panda ripping your fucking face off in the o eight son.
Well that was fun … I was up egregiously just before my bike ride after deciding to let it all ride … fortunately I ended up 3% … uh, down from over 10 … holding my positions
thanks god for my SKF SRS hedges … I would advise buying SRS & SKF on any sub 120 dip
I am heavy on SRS , medium on SKF & will keep both on thru any market rally
wow, HK saved my ass in the backstretch, nice finish!
+2.69% for the day.
UYG up, even when SKF has a 4% up day.
Odd, no?
BAC sucks balls. It need to break the fuck out to the upside.
got back 2% on the day. plus about five hunge spending cash, thanks to RC’s call on GU.
Ain’t nothing but another buying opportunity. To all, have a great weekend.
Go Sox!
NOV good.
Mexican fiesta for the Sniper fam tonight.
http://www.j3sg.com/Reports/Stock-Insider/GenerateFiler.php?filerCik=0000898680&pageNumber=1&descending=1&sortBy=PeriodOfReport
Boone has plenty O pickens
If you plan to hold SRS and SKF for a while, sell some way OTM calls while you hold.
With SRS at $128, you can get about $10 for a NOV 175 call. That gives you full participation in $47 of upside, plus $10 in your pocket. I’d sell lower strikes for more premium, but, if the di-ETFs are your armageddon insurance, you wouldn’t want to do that.
MOS is the new MVIS!? Finally!
my my ..hey hey…i sold everything and went all cash today..with a real good 6% gain comeing my way..
Fly, why do you think 7% is the Chinese GDP number to beat? Looking on bbg. it looks like the survey is around 9.7%. Long FSIN into the close. 2.44/share of cash and trading at 3.5 times earnings.
I make myself laugh, what do I know, fuck all.
Why do you fuckers bother with me, I need another 12 drinks. Tim Knight is my boyfriend.
I’m Sloping off now.
Watching Maury Povich. I could have sworn he was the father of her three kids but then again DNA don’t lie.
Back to the trailer.
Poof! Your rally is gone…
I bailed today when the getting was good.Now back to 75% cash. Sold Nov,Auy and held Mos.Breath a little bit easier this weekend.Any thoughts on Monday morning?
recusancy – never gonna happen. options have a real purpose, at least on paper.
Rally, what rally?
The REAL rally starts next week, listen to the Fly, he is King.
But only if GDP in China is not 6.9%.
2nd thoughts, ignore Fly, we go lower.
PS I am a margin clerk, I swat Flies when they talk crap
hack me. I dare you.
Next week, in my opinion, the most important data is Chinese GDP (Monday). Should those red fuckers come in with a 7%+ numbers, saddle up, we’re going higher. However, anything less than 7% will scare the markets into panic.
THE FLY.
We’re yellow, he’s fucking clour-blind as well as stupid!!
red=commy
Gotta Fly, have a great weekend.
Off to party with a lying whore.
black and blue = capitalist
^ +1
Thanks for the great SHORTS today. BULLS lost the S&P midpoint pivot at 942. BIG trouble next week. BIG $$$s for the BEAR. Have a great weekend bulltards. Odd no?
More likely next week… SRS at 110 or 150+?
That idiot with the pony tail on Fast Money is farting.
Egregious.
I’m crying
God dammit thats funny
GE is going to put these guys in Time Out or some such shit
fast money guys were having laughing fits like they’re in high school… while they were talking about how bad the American consumer has it.
Beware, IBC readers.
DEVILDOG is no bear. He is a bull, a bull terrier. He’s all bite and no civility.
Dylan Ratigan for President, Chris Cox and
Phil Gramm for chopped -up dog food.
I like to watch dogs puke.
Fuck I missed it. What was so funny ? Guess I’ll have to catch the FM recap later.
Me Chinese. Me Play Joke. Me Go Pee-Pee in your KO.
Let me tell you something — those coocky fucking Chinese think the whole current crisis is an act of economic war on them. I don’t give two bowls of fried rice what their GDP is, they are going to announce lower in order to fuck us sweetly. Does the world really believe this red regime will hire Price WaterhouseCoopers to do their GDP? Fuck that – they hate us and will announce 2% GDP just to watch us squirm.
can’t find my size 28 shoes my red nose and orange hair.
It’s all about the EV1
A big shout out to George W. Bush and the Republican Party. From George’s speech to the 2004 Republican Convention:
“Thanks to our policies, home ownership in America is at an all- time high. Tonight we set a new goal: 7 million more affordable homes in the next 10 years, so more American families will be able to open the door and say, “Welcome to my home. In an ownership society, more people will own their health plans and have the confidence of owning a piece of their retirement.”
Aren’t we glad that Republicans put polices in place to increase home ownership? Thank you Republicans for wiping out over $3 Trillion in stock market wealth, and still counting.
Fuck the Republican Party. Fuck ’em all.
This is a classic!
Lahde Quits Hedge Funds, Thanks `Idiots’ for Success (Update1)
By Katherine Burton
Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) — Andrew Lahde, the hedge-fund manager who quit after posting an 870 percent gain last year, said farewell to clients in a letter that thanks stupid traders for making him rich and ends with a plea to legalize marijuana.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVUE96d.HKyw&refer=home
Sure fuck ’em all, but Georgie boy didn’t forge yo’ mamma’s singature on the deed to that McMansion, now did he?
Peoplez need to take some fuggin’ responsibility!!
it was everybody’s fault: janitors buying mcmansions, mortgage brokers getting loans for people with no credit and no money, banks that issued the loans, insurers that sold fucking swaps for more garbage than they could ever possibly cover, banks levering up to asinine levels, bad oversight…
to start.
Ott – great idear re selling OTM calls on SRS/SKF … thx
==================
got forwarded this tale of a young hedgie – don’t know the validity
=========
Hedge Fund Manager: Goodbye … And Think Pot
From the Scorched Earth Files:
Andrew Lahde, manager of a small California hedge fund, Lahde Capital, burst into the spotlight last year after his one-year-old fund returned 866 percent betting against the subprime collapse.
Last month, he did the unthinkable — he shut things down, claiming dealing with his bank
counterparties had become too risky. Today, Lahde passed along his “goodbye” letter, a rollicking missive on everything from greed to economic philosophy. Enjoy:
Today I write not to gloat. Given the pain that nearly everyone is experiencing, that would be entirely inappropriate. Nor am I writing to make further predictions, as most of my forecasts in previous letters have unfolded or are in the process of unfolding. Instead, I am writing to say goodbye.
Recently, on the front page of Section C of the Wall Street Journal, a hedge fund manager who was also closing up shop (a $300 million fund), was quoted as saying, “What I have learned about the hedge fund business is that I hate it.” I could not agree more with that statement. I was in this game for the money. The low hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America.
There are far too many people for me to sincerely thank for my success. However, I do not want to sound like a Hollywood actor accepting an award. The money was reward enough. Furthermore, the endless list those deserving thanks know who they are.
I will no longer manage money for other people or institutions. I have enough of my own wealth to manage. Some people, who think they have arrived at a reasonable estimate of my net worth, might be surprised that I would call it quits with such a small war chest. That is fine; I am content with my rewards. Moreover, I will let others try to amass nine, ten or eleven figure net worths. Meanwhile, their lives suck. Appointments back to back, booked solid for the next three months, they look forward to their two week vacation in January during which they will likely be glued to their Blackberries or other such devices. What is the point? They will all be forgotten in fifty years anyway. Steve Balmer, Steven Cohen, and Larry Ellison will all be forgotten. I do not understand the legacy thing. Nearly everyone will be forgotten. Give up on leaving your mark. Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life.
So this is it. With all due respect, I am dropping out. Please do not expect any type of reply to emails or voicemails within normal time frames or at all. Andy Springer and his company will be handling the dissolution of the fund. And don’t worry about my employees, they were always employed by Mr. Springer’s company and only one (who has been well-rewarded) will lose his job.
I have no interest in any deals in which anyone would like me to participate. I truly do not have a strong opinion about any market right now, other than to say that things will continue to get worse for some time, probably years. I am content sitting on the sidelines and waiting. After all, sitting and waiting is how we made money from the subprime debacle. I now have time to repair my health, which was destroyed by the stress I layered onto myself over the past two years, as well as my entire life — where I had to compete for spaces in universities and graduate schools, jobs and assets under management — with those who had all the advantages (rich parents) that I did not. May meritocracy be part of a new form of government, which needs to be established.
On the issue of the U.S. Government, I would like to make a modest proposal. First, I point out the obvious flaws, whereby legislation was repeatedly brought forth to Congress over the past eight years, which would have reigned in the predatory lending practices of now mostly defunct institutions. These institutions regularly filled the coffers of both parties in return for voting down all of this legislation designed to protect the common citizen. This is an outrage, yet no one seems to know or care about it. Since Thomas Jefferson and Adam Smith passed, I would argue that there has been a dearth of worthy philosophers in this country, at least ones focused on improving government.
Capitalism worked for two hundred years, but times change, and systems become corrupt. George Soros, a man of staggering wealth, has stated that he would like to be remembered as a philosopher. My suggestion is that this great man start and sponsor a forum for great minds to come together to create a new system of government that truly represents the common man’s interest, while at the same time creating rewards great enough to attract the best and brightest minds to serve in government roles without having to rely on corruption to further their interests or lifestyles. This forum could be similar to the one used to create the operating system, Linux, which competes with Microsoft’s near monopoly. I believe there is an answer, but for now the system is clearly broken.
Lastly, while I still have an audience, I would like to bring attention to an alternative food and energy source. You won’t see it included in BP’s, “Feel good. We are working on sustainable solutions,” television commercials, nor is it mentioned in ADM’s similar commercials. But hemp has been used for at least 5,000 years for cloth and food, as well as just about everything that is produced from petroleum products. Hemp is not marijuana and vice versa. Hemp is the male plant and it grows like a weed, hence the slang term. The original American flag was made of hemp fiber and our Constitution was printed on paper made of hemp. It was used as recently as World War II by the U.S. Government, and then promptly made illegal after the war was won. At a time when rhetoric is flying about becoming more self-sufficient in terms of energy, why is it illegal to grow this plant in this country?
Ah, the female. The evil female plant — marijuana. It gets you high, it makes you laugh, it does not produce a hangover. Unlike alcohol, it does not result in bar fights or wife beating. So, why is this innocuous plant illegal? Is it a gateway drug? No, that would be alcohol, which is so heavily advertised in this country. My only conclusion as to why it is illegal, is that Corporate America, which owns Congress, would rather sell you Paxil, Zoloft, Xanax and other additive drugs, than allow you to grow a plant in your home without some of the profits going into their coffers. This policy is ludicrous. It has surely contributed to our dependency on foreign energy sources. Our policies have other countries literally laughing at our stupidity, most notably Canada, as well as several European nations (both Eastern and Western). You would not know this by paying attention to U.S. media sources though, as they tend not to elaborate on who is laughing at the United States this week. Please people, let’s stop the rhetoric and start thinking about how we can truly become self sufficient.
With that I say good-bye and good luck.
All the best,
Andrew Lahde
So how do you play this….
In his letter, Mr Lahde said he expected the collapse in value of subprime mortgage-linked securities to be repeated for bonds backed by commercial property loans in a deep recession – which he also predicts.
He can predict whatever he wants, it doesn’t affect my decision making. In my experience, past success has absolutely no bearing on potential future success. Take George Soros. We always hear about how he broke the Bank of England. We don’t hear so much about how many times he got his ass kicked since then to the point of throwing his handbag down and quitting.
Another example. They trotted out Julian Robertson on CNBC this week. What do I care what this guy has to say? Yeah, he was a genius, he was great…in the days where he was one of the only hedge fund managers around and probably had access to more info than others. He too eventually got taken out back and shot. If he is so smart, how come he wasn’t able to avoid the firing squad?
Steph, you make good points. At least Lahde-dah was smart enough to quit while he was (somewhat) ahead.
The “in your face” is kind of poor form for someone who’s leaving the game. Fuck him.
PS — it’s not your fault, because you’re probably a foreigner, but do you mind if I call you Steve? All the Stephs I know are hotties, and well….
_______
We always hear about how he broke the Bank of England.
Well yea, he had former Bundesbank head Karl Otto Pohl feeding him info that the Germans were not going to support the pound in the EMS. So of course it was basically insiders info.
waaaaaaaaaaaaaah i got rich and quit because the job involved work. waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah
Lahde should feel fortunate he still controls his own destiny:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nD7dbkkBIA
What a spectacular week. My gains this week were just disgusting … absolutely fucking disgusting. Not only were they disgusting, they were also perverted. Today my modest gain of 6.5%, was more than your granddad yields holding a 5 year CD. Yesterday’s gains were larger. And Wednesday was just fucking repugnant & vile.
At this time I would like to thank Trader Donny for bailing out Investor Donny, and placing my YTD gains back in egregious mode. That Investor Donny is a fucking idiot, who made large bets in stupid stocks a couple of weeks ago. More on my split $personality$ in the future.
Which Donny posts the smileys? He needs to be sentenced to a Groundhog Day routine of waking up every morning and putting 100% of his portfolio into MVIS.
Congratulations on a blazing hot week. Gains are good.
As far as I’m concerned, the “end of the world” angle is off the table. So while by no means I’ll say the market will shoot straight up, I do believe that there is now a preponderance of people looking for the right price to build a position therefore creating an underlying bid. Instead of a whole bunch of people trying to get out the door.
So the jokers looking to smash the futures down aggressively on any sign of weakness will get their faces ripped off. This should reduce volatility going forward. And make the market more logically tradeable. I’d like to think that most bad news is theoretically priced in already.
Now cue bullshit unexpected bad news on Sunday and Dow down 900… 😉
Also, my name is Steph from Stéphane, the French version of Stephen. My wife does call me Steve though.
I’m not gonna take this.
Wormer, he’s a dead man!
Marmalard, dead!
Niedermeyer…Dead!
Steph, 100% invested in MVIS!
“Inexperienced?” Nothing of the kind!
______
Fuck me.
Picked up the weekend Aussie papers today. Talk about doomsday shit. It’s like the End of the Times shit the Dog keeps spouting on about on every page. Fuck these journos are leftard douchebags. they even had a piece about how fun less materialistic times are. How we’re supposed to be closer to each other. Yea right. I’d can’t wait to buy the second hand foul smelling GM previously owned a fat farting douchebag instead of the understated elegance of a Merc, Beamer or Ferrari.
If every single page is filled with scary stories and harhship and how stocks are trashed, this is the medium term bottom.
Credit spreads aren’t the issue. Rates have to come down in the private market.
Everyone is creating piles cash and we’re starting the next bubble. This time it will be emerging markets.
Bloomberg is guessing 9.7 on China monday.
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