This is a must read. Hat tip Howard
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on TwitterSo … I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.
was that the early edition or late edition. was that out during market hours. the date on it is the 16th
Good call by Warren. He obviously reads you blog, fly.
personally I’m going with Seth Glickenhous(?) who thinks the bullmarket starts next week.
this is what i think. I think people will eventually catch wind of the monetary expansion and run for the hills when they realize that $1,000,000 invested at trash rates in bonds etc will cost them big time with inflation running at 10-15% over 10 years.
Yes that’s right. Inflation isn’t CPI is the money supply and only the money supply that counts.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the next bubble is actually in the stock market.
Fly, get some fucking sleep. I want my traders bright eyed and bushy tailed in the morn. I’ll look after things here.
Dated 10/16, but just went onto NYTimes webpage 27 minutes ago (currently 11:52pm West Coast).
Just re-read this piece. Holy shit. The market is going to go up 1,000 points tomorrow. You know how many fucktards are going to read that and then buy stocks? Do you know how many times they are going to say the word “Buffett” on CNBC between 6am and Noon tomorrow? If I had a short position (well, other than Boeing, which is FUCKED), I would be shitting in my pants after reading that story.
I’m lovin’ it…
any wagers on what we gap up
you miss every shot you don’t take.
&
the time you enjoy wasting is not wasted time.
Where dog and cramer?
Buffett is not allowed on this site as he is over 47.5 years old. Odd no? Besides, he’s gone senile.
1,000 and 10,000. Write it down.
Besides that futures have turned DOWN after learning of buffett’s bulltardness. Odd no?
Futures are down after hours. Buffett didn’t say he IS all in, he said if it keeps selling off (i.e. going down) then he WILL be all in. We will breach the lows before going back up.
Friendly reminder: What happened after the old retard put money in GS? Answer: market popped and crashed lower. BTW, he’s an old asshole. He’s talking his book before options expiration because Berkshire sold a bunch of put options that are in the money. He’s just like the rest of the wall street liars and cheats. I hope he looses all his money. SHORTING SPY @ 100 if it gets there.
Dog:
Futures during this hour is meaningless shit.
j:
Bullshit.
no it’s not bullshit. Futures during this hours gets over powered when the US comes in.
Glad it’s meaningless. Why do they even have futures then? Odd no?
DOW -163
NASD -34.75
S&P -17.10
BTW, don’t worry I’m sure housing starts and consumer sentiment will be bullish in the morning. Just like the great economic news yesterday. It’s already discounted. The market is now pricing in the recovery next spring when the flowers come out and our economy blooms again and reaches for the sun.
I second j…
the morning will settle the dispute for good.
think about it, all the big boys with the huge futures accounts will be getting up soon making their coffee and see the Buffet story as another catalyst to explode this market higher (at least in the near term)….
the big moves in the futures happen 6 or so eastern.. should be off to the races from then on..
buffett sucks donkey dicks…
No dog, they won’t be good numbers, but we already know that or rather if you don’t know that you should be locked up for impersonating a large brained mammal.
the real question is how bad are they? Will they be out of the ballpark bad in terms of current expectations in this environment? I don’t thinks so.
Yes he does and he’s a dishonest piece of turd with the way he rags on derivatives and then we find he’s one of the biggest players.
However he has influence.
add a abk bailout, the numbers just need to be not horrible, this market is looking for any excuse to rally hard and cleanse all shorts… then new shorts will be safe to enter.
As perverse as it sounds I actually think we’re soon coming to a stage (not yet but soon) where the more horrendous the numbers are the more it could cause the market to rally hard as players begin to think it’s the bottom and the next series of numbers will be better…. and it could turn out that they will be even if they’re flatish.
I really hope we do rally tomorrow as I want higher SHORT entries. We all know that the record discount window activity this week is being dumped into the market to try and get PUTS out of the money…big surprise. Same reason as I stated above that the old fart is running his mouth. I can wait for the Monday crash. I’m researching my target sector right now for SHORT entries tomorrow. I suggest you not stay long into the weekend. Good luck.
buffet can at least cover his derivative bets if a black swan event occurs without getting bailed out by the treasury or fed…
Dirivatives are only dangerous when the ones writing them know that in the oh shit event they are screwed… like nearly every player.
Dog,
is it not the hedge fund and mutual fund redemptions that have been the double whammy to the deleveraging process… Buffet is God to the investor that is pulling money out right now… at the very least the forced selling stops and that is good for a few points.
Yeah, I read about the ABK bailout. The increase in money supply over the last 6 weeks annualized is 114%. Great solution to our record debt. Just pile more on. This is going to end very poorly when the end game arrives.
swan, I think the deleveraging has a very long way to go. Like I said we’re not going to be able to monitize our way out of this. CDS were a sham. Trying to cover it up will not work. Going to be very interesting over the next decade and not in a good way. The laws of nature will win. Always have and always will. That is the bottom line.
what is the end game in a world of floating currencies and a race to the bottom.
Gold… not as home prices are deflating world wide, equities plunge, and wages for the indebted masses don’t budge.
Yeah, I read about the ABK bailout. The increase in money supply over the last 6 weeks annualized is 114%. Great solution to our record debt. Just pile more on. This is going to end very poorly when the end game arrives.
October 17th, 2008 at 4:27 am
Doesn’t that tell you they’re monetising it? look the problem associated with that are next problems problem.
Stock will renominate to the money supply add.
The laws of nature say without the massive gov intervention thus far every person involved in finance would be hung in public hangings… we are on the backside of the largest credit bubble in history there is no good ending… just some that buy more time than others.
Fellas put mises and hayek away for a while. We have bubble and then we have other bubbles. It’s going to wok this time. Next time I’m not so sure. it’s going to work in terms of getting the stock market up but it will be with paper money.
Don’t worry and enjoy the ride.
But the other book…. “how i read mises and Hayek and learned to love bubbles’.
“how i read mises and Hayek and learned to love bubbles’.
haha, good stuff
After chomping on a bunch of charts this am, I’ll be covering my remaining shorts & getting all-in long myself. Hoping these down futes hold up till the open.
I have a feeling these down futes are being forced down by those who want in at better prices. Use them to your advantage.
fwiw
It’s not going to work this time.
Locked and loaded with BTU and ABX.
Juice, bottoms or double bottoms don’t get confirmed after 4 days after a fall of the magnitude we’ve had to date. Going all in long here is a mistake unless you get out before the close. I’m day trading only and in cash at the lose when I feel like scalping a few bucks. Thinking the train is now leaving to a big upside for several weeks starting tomorrow is not going to happen.
Fly, you awake? Get up. it’s time to head to the office.
The last time I saw futures crashing the morning before options expiration the FED did an emegrency rate cut before the open. I put that on my calendar last month.
bush is going to open his slimy mouth at 8:40 am edt. Should be interesting.
http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/del/globex.html
futures are being stubborn so far… too much news to attributed these swings to one story
but if the buffet bullet, along with the ambac ambush, along with the hammer time candle of yesterday doesn’t boost this market then I don’t know what will.
I have a bad feeling about today, hope I’m wrong.
bush is speaking that is auto-deduct 400pts from the market. see otherwise futures would be positive right now is it wasn’t for the twunt.
Bernake cuts at 8:30am. Bush speaks at 8:40.
Market rallys.
cnbc becky is already yakking about scumbag buffett. I think I’m going to puke.
Slope won Best Business Blog.
thx D-Dawg … u may be right but the charts are looking washed out … many of my shorts seem ready to bounce & I’ll be covering & getting longer, right or wrong if these down futes hold.
Fed isn’t going to to another solo rate cut. From now on it will be coordinated. Put that in the bible. front page.
j, so maybe they announce a global cut.
I wonder why he is going 100% into US equities and not overseas? Theres lots of fear there too.
Im buying the dip at he open and gettting long (if they dont cut). This is just options bullshit taking the fut. down now.
Buy the dip.
Shut the fuck up Bush.
On CNBC this morning, they said Buffett said he STOPPED buying equities yesterday when the market started going up.
He has only begun to buy.
He thinks he’ll get better prices than yesterday’s close.
Those last two comments are my opinion only.
Woodshedder – just STFU ! why let the truth get in the way of a pro stock story?
—–
in other news; Ron Paul reads IBC
“http://www.house.gov/htbin/blog_inc?BLOG,tx14_paul,blog,999,All,Item%20not%20found,ID=081014_2471,TEMPLATE=postingdetail.shtml
“More inflation, and creating moral hazard by bailing out EGREGIOUS offenders, is a recipe for disaster.’
Ron Paul link
Warren Buffett says: “BUY GOLD !!”
“Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.”
j, so maybe they announce a global cut.
no way. they only do that in the morn euro time.
Welcome back DevilDog.
Buffet is a pumper. He is also saying this market is the worst he has seen in his lifetime. I am sure the stocks he is buying gave him inside information. He will make money pumping stocks up and selling them. He is still
a cunting man even though he can’t get a hard on.
From WSJ blog
Is the stock market about to see a huge rally?
I know, I know. It just plummeted again. Am I crazy?
More importantly, only a sucker tries to predict short-term moves.
But the mood is so utterly bearish across the board right now that I am fighting the urge to turn into a raging bull.
Look at Merrill Lynch’s latest fund manager survey. Every month, Merrill surveys the biggest money managers around the world to find out what they think about markets and what they are doing with their own portfolio.
Right now they hate almost everything except cash. Merrill calls the new survey, out Wednesday, “one of the most pessimistic” ever. “Over the past month, fund managers have lost faith in global growth, commodities, China’s economy and emerging markets,” the firm reports.
Sound bearish? That isn’t. Quite the reverse: When the big money managers are very bearish, that’s often positive. It means they are already out of the market. “Three factors are coming together that have tended to be associated with market rallies,” reports Merrill. Fund managers say they have a low appetite with risk, they are holding very high amounts of cash, and yet a lot of them admit that equities are now undervalued. In fact the percentage of fund managers around the world who told Merrill that shares are now below fair value is the highest in a decade.
(Aside: Even Jeremy Grantham, the super-bear who anticipated this crisis better than anyone, now thinks stock markets are below fair value, although, as so often, he fears they may get even worse.)
The Merrill survey sometimes is an incredibly useful handbook for individual investors. It tells you what the big money crowd is thinking, and feeling, and where they have placed their chips. At market extremes, it is a wonderful contrarian indicator, or “magnetic south,” pointing in exactly the wrong direction.
Thus fund managers were hugely bullish on European equities 16 months ago, just before those markets collapsed, and hugely bearish on Japan back in the spring of 2003, just as it hit rock bottom.
A staggering 93% today are blowing Bronx cheers at analysts’ earnings forecasts. They think corporate earnings will disappoint in the year ahead. Indeed 51% believe forecasts are “far too high.”
Of course this may leave more room for positive surprises than for disappointments.
And it isn’t just the Merrill survey that’s making me itch to be bullish.
Look at the market: It has so far failed to follow up on Monday’s rebound. Everywhere you go, there huge skepticism about any rally. Worldwide share prices are worth 30% less than they were at the start of September, and nearly a fifth less than they were at the start of October, but unlike in 2001, or 2006, no one is calling this “a great buying opportunity.” No one is jumping in.
The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday reported that a number of big hedge fund managers have also been moving heavily into cash in recent days. Some of them are frightened about the market chaos. It makes you wonder why they’re hedge fund managers.
Maybe it doesn’t mean a thing. Maybe the market is about to fall another 2,000 points.
But some old stock market hands sometimes talk about the “golf course” test: Be wary of any asset that fund managers are bragging about on the golf course. In 1999, they were all boasting to each other about all the dotcom stocks in their portfolios. Last year, it was all their emerging markets stocks.
Right now, it seems, everyone is bragging about how much they are holding in cash.
Fully invested, way the fuck overweight in HK and UGY
uh, UYG
Today is the day where we see that the “bad news” is priced in the market and no longer makes it go down. Case in point, the daily bullshit economic data that comes out at 8:30. What is it today, housing starts? Who cares about that stuff anyway, we know it’s bad. Plus, there’s a different one every day so it,s completely retarded to buy or sell based on the 8:30 data.
Steph…unless your a day trader…
I would like to think that day traders buy and sell the market on more useful stuff than the 8:30 data. Usually, it’s pretty irrelevant. Until we get times like this where all of a sudden, it becomes “important” again. It’s like trading oil off the US inventory numbers.
I was a bank trader in currencies for years, so we always traded the 8.30 numbers.The best indicator I always found was when the market no longer reacted to the way the news was supposed to take it.
Here is whats going on…Hank Paulson goes short the market before every Bush speech. He covers just after the plunge that follows and uses the proceeds to help fund the bailout. It just might work.
BP
Currencies is one thing, but I’ve only ever traded the stock market on these numbers in rare times.
Bush speaking, let’s see if that makes the market collapse in typical fashion. Since that is now too expected, I imagine we go green.
Be careful on the open, its expiration day.
And I am deeply ashamed at George Bush’s effort to pin our economic problems on the previous administration. George Bush is a dolt. A low life. A failure. My party caused this mess. My party now needs to suffer the consequences.
Republican…
Bush is a dolt…but dont think for a second the democrats hands are clean on this. Fat Fuk Barney Frank (the maestro) and others across the aisle are just as much to blame.
Guy
This is Buffett’s bet that Bernanke won’t be able to control his boner next to the printing press.
Speaking of. When the fuck are the Dem’s going to pass the second stimulus bill? We need to build new roads. Every car in America should have it’s own lane.
BUSH IS A STUPID DOUCHEBAG THAT NO ONE WITH A BRAIN BELIEVES.
I’m just a little piker and I’m scared – maybe that’s why Warren is buying? Of course, Warren could croak at any time so WTF does he care?
Fuck you Republican. The Dems control Congress, and they have overridden my vetos on every spending bills (not counting military expenditures of course).
Can any of you moron GOP bashers tell me one thing Obambi has done well. One fucking thing. Name it. And don’t bother camparing him to Bush one thing The One has done well.
Republican, Bush, et all…just wait till you see what happens when the dems run congress and the white house. I am looking at real estate in Canada, or maybe Venezuela.
I have done some research in to Volitivity and market timing. When the Volitivity is high the trend tends to decrease. Leaving out all the tec bullshit my results say we could start a new Bull market in the next month. Take it for what its worth but don’t forget a bull market is when we go 20% up from a bear low. Not impossible no.
Political bickering accomplishes nothing other than to prove you are no different than the politicians, who spend enormous energy pointing fingers, rather than solving problems.
1) I am a good speaker.
2) I know what people want to hear.
3) I know how to distance myself from friends that are known terrorists and cop killers.
4) I know how to distance myself from my pastor of 20 years (he and I both hate America…just dont tell anyone).
5) I am wicked good about talking about change.
6) I like to think about all of you as being rich.
Seriously…whats not to like about me?
Barack
Eh…so much for my theory about not going down. I still have a hard time seeing the market pick up momentum to the downside. That would really, really surprise me.
There’s a story out that Bill Ayers ghosted his book as one of Ayers books had the same language structure as obambi’s.
funny if true.
I don’t see how we can enter a bull market as there will be more overarching bad news coming. We haven’t even arrived at the stage where all company and economic news is bad news. On good news prices go down and on bad news prices go down. Then we will be near the bottom. I’m buying selectively…
BUFFETT ALREADY WAS ALL IN!
I thought Fly actually read shit from time to time. Between large recent stakes in WWY, GS, GE, ISCAR, and DOW, Buffett has blown nearly all of the $40Bln in cash that Berkshire was sitting on. I’m sure he will make money, but its clear he has not been waiting “on the sidelines”.
If this sucker goes down, he will lose big time, given his “egregious” counterparty trades and preferred stocks. Most, if not all of his warrants are underwater.
El;
I don’t see how we can go into a bull market either but that might be the reason we go into one. Take a look at libor. Remember the bull could be very short.
Can any of you moron GOP bashers tell me one thing Obambi has done well.
Uhhhhm… ingratiated himself with rich unrepentant bomb throwers?
_______
I hain’t a-skeered, we’s goin UP today, sonny!
All-in
gun is at my head
new buys
tck
clf
fcx
gdx
slt
mon
eem
inp
cbs
drys
tbsi
Guy Adummy, our party was in control. If we are to heal we have to hold our leaders accountable. As much as I deplore Barney Frank, he was in the minority for six of the last eight years. He, or Dodd, would not have been able to accomplish anything without the approval of the Republican leadership.
We screwed this economy up royally. It is simply time to punish our Republican leadership, and give the other side of the isle a shot at running our country. Hopefully, they screw it up too. But, we’ll see.
I am ashamed to be a Republican. Ashamed. As a result, I will not vote in the coming election.
Ted Spread continues to decrease which is good news for the credit markets.
Vulvativity is skyrocketing.
never thought I’d say this –
GO, TED SPREAD ! !
Widening, too.
FOr a quick trade buy RF right here at 11.30.
It rally today to 12.50
right that shit down and check back at the end of the day.
You are welcome, asshole
When the Stars of the internets align on the same side – The Fly, Howie Linzon Tart, Tim Slope & now Warren Buffetts …..pay attention
http://slopeofhope.com/2008/10/qid_pro_quo.htm
Fire for effect.
in an effort to demonstrate that capitalism is not dead, that it is alive and doing well, this will be the last free appearance by the one and only RALLY MONKEY
http://www.rallymonkey.com/video/kenindex.swf
Fuck yeah! Go HK!!!
As I said CHK sold to me under 17. Was it sold to you?
Pro Trader, using the 20% mark, there were several BULL Markets within the move down from the Crash of 29 to the bottom in 32. Which makes your point quite plausible.
Thanks Chivas. I needed that.
Grandpa;
You got it.
Donny buys DIG 29.99
LMAO @ Karl Marx, our new national hero. Volatile, volativity, volatileness, tards.
Pro T,
I don’t disagree with the ability of the market to swing up, but I guess we differ in terms of what a Bull Market is. Guaranteed Buffet isn’t looking to get out of his positions next week…and I’ve loved the markets over the last 2 months!
We are not going anywhere till we can get over yesterdays high 🙁
you can also be sure Buffet is dollar cost averaging his way into this market…
Start looking at stocks below linear regression line with insider buying in the last 4 months or so. This market is acting like a rubberband using the linear regression line.
a caveat quote fm aaron task twitter –
not 2b a downer but Im reminded of recent convo with John Roque about how Buffett is one of the few ‘icons’ left yet to be discredited (yet)
Todd Harrison
10:07:51 AM
position in fxi
Gate Sniffage!
*
Chinese Checker? I nibbled on a starter position in the FXI to have it on my sheets and with the understanding that I’ll have the ability to buy it much cheaper at a point.
*
Levels of lore include S&P 840 (Friday’s intraday low), S&P 900 (the closing low) and S&P 910 (the higher low). Stops can be set on the other side of those levels depending on your time horizon and risk profile.
*
The “only” problem with my “the 2008 trading low is in” thesis is that the cancer is bigger than the patient. Directional bias aside, that must be respected through the lens of risk managment.
*
Apple bottom jeans, boots with the fur…
*
Honey? Well, on the reaction to news front, Honeywell (HON) is off 6%, Google (GOOG) is hanging up 5% and Schlumberger (SLB) is taking a 10% haircut.
*
Man, I remember when Friday nights meant models and bottles. And there was a brief stretch when I thought bottles and babies might be in the cards.
*
Now? The only bottles are Advil, the only models are option pricing and the only babies sit behind me when I’m on a plane.
*
Hit it hard, Minyans, we’re six hours away from Freeeeedom!
R.P.
Jon Markman
09:59:47 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Markman Randoms
* Asian Steelmakers are poised to grab a stake in big Brazilian iron ore miner as Brazilian stocks plummet. This could reshape the industry.
* Ocean shipping rates are still crashing. Capesize rates are down 95% since June. The Baltic Dry Index is back to its 2002 level. The whole shipping market has crashed. Take note of Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) and Dryships (DRYS) which are at their worst levels.
* D-Day for payment on Lehman CDS is Tuesday. Someone owes $360 bln but it’s still not clear who’s exactly on the hook.
Doubled my RUT call position this morning.
Going back to 660 minimum, I believe, and perhaps over 700 again.
+++++++++
“Alleged Republican” sez: We screwed this economy up royally. It is simply time to punish our Republican leadership, and give the other side of the isle a shot at running our country.
No due respect, but your above attempt at ruse is laughable.
No actual Republican takes “logical” action that can be analogized to the following:
Hmmm, let’s see, I misinstalled my garage door opener, so I think I’ll burn my house down to “teach myself a lesson.”
Dipshit, if you are not Dinosaur Commie, you are clearly as or more stupid than him.
___
__________
Keep DIGging!!!
CLF
RIO
FCX
TCK
as the pony toiled one would say – giddy up !
As I said CHK sold to me under 17. Was it sold to you?
2000 MORE shares, at $16.50, on the “down pressah” day.
_____
Jake – isn’t your term “logical republican” an oxymoron?
Douchebag, just scratch the “oxy” for yourself.
______
I think its time, mark this day.
I once voted for a Democrat, so I beat up a hippie communist to teach myself a lesson.
Getting ready for liftoff?