You idiots never learn. You’re like small children waiting for Mommy (The Fed) to give you a bottle.
Asshole dip buyers could not resist buying the carnage, effectively delaying the inevitable mark down of stocks. People stepped in, with hairy knuckles and deformed faces, and sopped up shares of destroyed ag and bank names, because they are hopeful of a 100 basis point Fed rate cut.
Take a step back and realize how idiotic that is.
The market is going lower because the global economy is in the process of slowing, with great vigor. All companies that rely on emerging markets or credit, will continue to suffer despite lower rates.
So, in short, I was going to buy today, only if it was ugly. However, since all of the idiots were out and about lap dogging the bulls, I decided to hold cash and wait for better bids.
NOTE: I sold half of my [[SRS]] , 25% of [[FXP]] and 25% of [[SKF]] , with no buys.
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100% agree, if they closed it hard and hairy I would have been all over the long side especially AAPL and tech but no you fucks had to bid shit up. Fuck it, selling with both fists.
It’s nice to know there will be a wall of worry on the way up. VIX hit 58, DOW was down over 800 and you are complaining. Maybe we should have priced every piece of bad news in one day so you would have a easy trade…
We need a coordinated global clown fuck!
Maybe there will be one more short sharp drop tomorrow, but I think the temporary (three weeks, maybe?) bottom is in.
That 1013 number I sent you was almost spot on, today, so don’t let your positive momentum stop you from shifting gears… where?
Ovah heah.
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Lots of buying on weakness today as well.
And not just by Bruce and me.
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POOF!!! YOUR BULLSHIT BEAR RAID IS GONE!!!
Anon:
The close is all that matters. This is the only market that tries to wrap up bull and bear markets in one fucking afternoon.
temp bottom is in.
when Cramer tells you to buy again, sell like a motherfucker.
Note:
I am out of everthing short save a final position in SRS, which I may hold even if there is a sharp updraft here.
The REITs may not participate in this bounce, as they were late to the clownfuck party in the first place.
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Market will gap down 2,000 points tomorrow, mandated by the Vatican.
Prepare for a “non-Faux crash.”
Fly, what do you think of shorting FXE? Since it tracks the EURO, and the financial crisis is likely to spread across the pond, weakening the EURO, do you think shorting it would be a good move? I think it would, judging from the haphazard, “every man for himself” response to the crisis by the European Union so far.
Poof! All shorts nuked tomorrow.
I accidentally forgot the market was open today – anything unusual happen?
Poof! I’m off to get stuck with needles in order to ward off these fucking river valley allergies which could fell Bruce Jenner in his prime.
This is a nice town, but it’s to allergies as Burlington, Vermont is to snow.
10 months a freaking year.
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Any of you notice how bullish everyone is, due to today’s rally off the lows?
Rmember, 10/31 is tax day for funds. Forced selling will commence in record fashion, until then.
The only currency I mess with is FXY. I am long Yen.
Fly – you are with it I see implicating the Vatican.
Well done.
Do you fuckers want to join the Army or the Marines?
Do not end up in a FEMA camp.
you guys are right… everyone is so bullish and today was no washout..
the vix only reached its second highest level of all time and put calls were at 153
* September 30–quarter end.
* October 31–mutual fund fiscal year end.
* November 30–fiscal year end for many brokers.
* December 31–year end.
That gives us a nice rally into options expiration.
The fact that most of you are talking about rallies and bottoms is disheartening on the bull side. I am worried yet again. Bottoms come when you least expect.
The market can’t go up and down too many times for me. I don’t mind making the same money over again.
I love the smell of burnt bailout from everywhere.
BAC Bank of America reports Q3 results below consensus; announces 50% dividend cut and $10 bln common stock offering (32.22 -2.26)
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.15 per share, $0.51 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.66; revenues rose 20.8% year/year to $19.9 bln vs the $20.67 bln consensus. Lower earnings in the third quarter compared with a year earlier were driven by a significant increase in provision expense, as credit costs continued to rise, partially offset by advances in various income categories largely as a result of the acquisition of Countrywide Financial Corporation on July 1, 2008 and LaSalle Bank… The company also announced two initiatives to raise capital, targeting an 8% Tier 1 capital ratio. The company intends to sell common stock with a target of raising $10 bln. In addition, the Board of Directors has declared a quarterly dividend on common stock of $0.32 to be paid on December 26, 2008 to shareholders of record on December 5, 2008. Assuming the current number of issued and outstanding shares, the reduction from $0.64 paid in recent quarters would add more than $1.4 bln to capital each quarter. “These are the most difficult times for financial institutions that I have experienced in my 39 years in banking… We believe it is prudent to raise capital to very substantial levels in this uncertain environment. Both economic and financial market conditions have changed significantly in the last two months. We were willing to operate at capital levels over the short-term that were good, but not at our targeted levels, given projections two months ago. We now believe it is important to be at or near our 8% Tier 1 capital ratio target given the recessionary conditions and outlook for still weaker economic performance which we expect to drive higher credit losses and depress earnings… Our goal is to resume dividend increases from the new level as soon as our earnings performance warrants…. Increased loss and delinquency trends first experienced in the home equity and homebuilder portfolios have now spread into the first mortgage, unsecured consumer lending and credit card portfolios. Deterioration has been more pronounced in California and Florida, which have been hit harder by home price depreciation and rising unemployment than in other markets. Commercial losses in sectors other than real estate and small business also increased, but remain below normalized ranges.” The company added almost $2 bln to the allowance for loan and lease losses during the quarter through provision. The additions were mainly for consumer loans, including the unsecured consumer lending, credit card and residential mortgage portfolios. Nonperforming assets were $13.36 bln or 1.42% of total loans, leases and foreclosed properties, compared with $9.75 bln, or 1.13%, at June 30, 2008 and $3.37 bln, or 0.43%, at September 30, 2007. Countrywide added $259 mln in operating earnings to Bank of America this quarter, which was accretive to earnings per share by $0.06… Chief Executive Officer Kenneth D. Lewis and Chief Financial Officer Joe L. Price will discuss third quarter 2008 results in a conference call at 5 p.m. EDT today.
Fly- which sector(s) would you recommend being overweight when the “non-faux” crash happens? tech, health, commodities, utilities? I’ve been following your site for a long time – saved me a TON of cash – THANKS!
i did pick up wlt at 29- 8 bucks below an insider who spent 1.4m on shares-seemed like a good bet to me-just a third of a position.
Knock Out: CNBC Confirms Lehman CEO Punched at Gym
http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20081006150152.aspx
LOL!
The Pope uses a Jewish broker and his financial advisor is an atheist.
We now believe it is important to be at or near our 8% Tier 1 capital ratio target …
Sharp fellers, them BAC bankers.
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Good that there’s no recession and China is still growing faster than 8%, otherwise Copper might have been hit harder than a measly -7.3% today.
The money flows got more and more negative throughout the day even when we rallied back. I’d say that is not a good sign.
Shorting is much harder than it looks !!! Shorting requires tonnes of conviction and holding on no matter what the price says…. Better to go fishing than to short the market
!!! I just hate short squeeze!!!
Some people/investors/traders have to learn the hard way…
CNBC – every dip is the bottom.
How many times in the past 2 years has CramIt called the bottom in the housing and real estate markets?
I’ve lost count.
Cramer will be right….eventually….unfortunately we might all be dead by then……
Capital flight from Russia in the past 24 hours exceeded the total capital inflow for 2008.
Yes, that sounds like a good place to invest.
Guys, the ‘effective federal funds rate’ today was at 1.1% – on Friday it was – get this – 0.67%. So, an ‘official’ rate cut won’t even make a difference in the rate that’s actually offered behind the scenes. And even if it would actually lower the available rate, it wouldn’t open up lending.
Can you say ‘sucker rally’?
“Knock Out: CNBC Confirms Lehman CEO Punched at Gym
http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20081006150152.aspx
LOL!”
Is it me or is this one of the worst reports I’ve read?
1 – When Cramer says on national tee vee to sell all your stocks & hunker down for the next 5 depression years ..
2 – When the Pope is talking about the evils of finances & stocks even though the Vatican has more money than God…
3 – When I hear from my brother in law about stocks ..
Its time for a looong side trade.
We could have a very sharp spike tomorrow if the morons who set interest rates chop chop. Probably I’d sell into that.
Agree with Jake. Comm Re is still the big short out there despite their move off the lows. I’d check in with Reggie at http://boombustblog.com/ for some short ideas there.
I agree, I fielded calls all day long from panicked friends and family. It is not time to sell stocks. I see maybe 2% of downside from here and at least 10% upside. And before any of you asshole start flaming me I’m talking about a 1-3 week trade heading into Oct expiration.
Rigged Game,
I wouldn’t flame someone with whom I agree.
But watch out for the Fly. Word is he’s going around with a mouthful of Wild Turkey 101 and a butane lighter.
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I’m sick of after-hours surprise announcements, rule changes, bailout votes, socialist policy-mongering, and the rest of it.
The cheering at the bell was nauseating.
Shut off your TV’s, and you won’t have to listen to shills trumpeting the fucking “free market” and the “opportunities” therein. Don’t you realize all that bullshit will stop, as soon as selling it to the masses is no longer cost effective?
Go to your local farm supply store and buy seeds to grow your own vegetables. Store them well, you might need them in the spring.
That cash you’re holding will still be good- for kindling!
I had three friends call me today asking
“What should I do? I’m down 35% for the year”.
These guys call me about once every ten years. They didn’t listen to me when I told them “sell at least half” when the Dow was 14,500.
I told them BUY MORE right here (market was down 700). We should go up 10% or 15% – then you
can sell the half you should have sold in 2007.
Speaking from my experience in 2002…
I think we’ll all know the bottom is in because there will be no viewers for Cramer’s show and your average person will hate stocks. If you bring up the topic at a party, the only comments will be how much money everyone lost in stocks.
That’s when we will be ready to trade the next bull market.
Hey Fuck Bailots, what’s a Bailot?
Is that one of them chichi frenchie breads?
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“jose bag o’ lawnmowers” (from earlier thread)
best “bag o” line of the day, +3.
rally/sink? joe retail selling, joe hedgie deleveraging/redemptions, sounds like we go lower, hope you rally monkeys are right cuz I’m long.
I recall 1973-74, 1980-82, 1984 and participated in the following: 1987 crash, 1990-92, 1997 Asian contagion, .com bust of 2000-2003. Wake me up when it’s over.
Chuckle. Listen to Cramer. Doesn’t he know tomorrow is turnaround Tuesday? He will turn bullish tomorrow and then wacky Weds will crush him again.
Anyone see Anton today?
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Fly’s holding periods seem to be, on average, longer than mine. Which is fine. If we go lower I’ll just be getting longer. The worst part of this is I started taking off my hedges 3 days ago. Sold 75k QID for a $2 gain the day after shorts were banned. Still not over it.
this is awesome.
frankly, i think the asshole dip buyers were trying to piggyback people covering short positions. between liquidations & redemptions (and those that shoot against funds when they’re dying), de-levering, and put writers hedging, it could have dropped 1200 today, but everything catches a breather in each direction. however, there’s still no fundamental reason to own anything in this market. sell the rips until proven otherwise.
yikes, jake. that news report is grim, to say the least.
i have no problem with people offing themselves, but why take the rest of the family? that’s lame.
This is kind of amazing:
(From Minyanville):
NYSE internals? 3113 red for every 98 ahead. In all my years trading, I’ve never seen it that lopsided.
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Aris — I always think the same when I hear of those things.
Who could be so freaking selfish as to off his own kids (and wife, and mo in law) out of what? Personal shame?
It’s freaking unnatural.
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(Amended: okay, mebbe the mo-in-law)
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Jake,
Getting my hair did.
Fly’s too negative. Swat the phucking fly away, mortgage the pharm, put your money on SSO.
Since this market has folks waxing opinionated if not poet on the subject of suicide, I couldn’t believe David Foster Wallace hanged himself where his wife would find him. Depression is one thing, but to check out knowing the kind of image you’re going to leave in the mind of your wife or your kids is unforgivable.
Sounds like way more was working than just a suicide.
Deep depression and severe stress makes people do stuff like that. If they could think normally, they probably wouldn’t be trying to kill themselves (or others) in the first place.
It was sad to hear about David Foster Wallace, very talented writer.
Crazy times.
David Foster Wallace… did you read that thing he wrote for the college graduation that was later published in the WSJ?
He had it figgered out but he had no anchor. Can’t do “the meaning of life” with no meaning in life.
A damn shame. He was four years ahead of me at school, and one of three big time writers in his class of about 400.
The other two? Harlan Coben and Dan Brown.
Guess it’s better to write the less serious stuff, for your own mental health at least.
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That said, I was glad to see that it wasn’t Anton!
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Will you all join me in severing a chicken’s head in pious submission to the glorious people’s GLORC?
So it comes, I mean?
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What’s a GLORC? (I’m just catching up on ibc ovah heah.)
Of the 3 authors you mentioned, Harlan Coben plus Dan Brown still works out to be less than the square root of David Foster Wallace. Booksellers make fun of Dan Brown because they say he keeps writing the same story, over and over and over… buy hey, he made the big bucks off of DaVinci and I’m a lowly bookseller, so what do I know? 🙂
oh, Jake, Ms. Palin is speaking tonight at the Boca Raton Resort Hotel. There was heavy police presence at many intersections in Boca, more than usual even when a President is there. Pissed me off on the way to/from the Post Office, blocking my way like that. Outta my way sheesh.
Hah Boca, my Starbucks in Mizner Park was all abuzz this morning, apparently Sarah likes lattes her entourage made an early am appearance.
Jake wants to give Palin a latte.
She likes it non-fat, lots of foam.
Karl Marx making more trades today than in all known history. Karl Marx daily gains in Fly territory. Karl Marx eyes blazing and beard on FIRE.
Karl Marx.
Shit, my Mom is going down to H.Beach tomorrow, too!
I guess she’s going to miss her?
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Shed, don’t be crude, just pray for the Glorious GLORC, will you please?
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WTF is GLORC?
Gorgeous Ladies of Rock Climbing (GLORC)
The Game is Rigged … the starbucks at Mizner?? I’ve been there but usually at night. Do you work at one of the brokerage offices near Mizner?
WTF is GLORC??
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Are you some sort of noxious blasphemer??
Why, GLORC is the People’s Glorious Global Rate Cut, of course!
Coordinated, if you pleeeeeeze!
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haha Glorious indeed. Good name for it.
Excellent graph here
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/06/16677/bailout-the-new-frontier/
that explains why we’re in this credit crunch. Sudden and very massive shift of money out of money mkt funds and into Treasuries caused commercial paper mkt to lock up. $500 Billion left MMFs in last 2 weeks Sept. $200 Billion went into Treasuries, $150 Billion went into Government MMFs. Assume the remaining $150 Billion went into Fly’s pockets for walking-around money, and in coffee cans stored in refrigerators nationwide.
So:
1 Lehman declares bankruptcy
2 Worthless Lehman commercial paper causes some MMFs to break $1
3 Investors panic and yank money from MMFs and plow into Treasuries
4 Treasury sits around flush with cash and heads up their collective asses
5 Facing redemptions, MMFs slow or halt purchases of commercial paper
6 Companies unable to float commercial paper now forced to draw on backup lines of credit from banks
7 Banks, facing unexpected massive rush to draw credit lines are then forced to cut credit elsewhere – consumers
8 Treasury and Fed, asleep at the wheel take 3 – 4 phucking weeks to wake up to this fact and realize they now must complete the circle, start buying commercial paper, and collect the spread for the taxpayer – until stupid phuckers start trusting MMFs again
9 Our dumbassed, stupid phucking moronic President and Treasury Secretary run around talking up the “coming depression” … keeping people parked in Treasuries.
= ONE BIG PHUCKING MESS
From your keyboard to GLORC’s ear, Jake. But if the issue is confidence and the fear of not being paid back, not sure a rate cut is going to induce banks to make loans.
Yes? No? Garp?
Separate topic, but how long do you think it will be before the gov’t buys up great mountains of sub prime paper and acres of abandoned and/or defaulted upon or never completed houses in places like Modesto and Las Vegas and Baltimore, ad nauseam?
By the grace of GLORC, I prophesize a vast homestead program under President Obama… Perhaps a cornerstone to the new G.I. Bill…
And as GLORC is my witness, I’ll never be hungry again!
Well, I’ll be hungry again, but whoever gets the benefit of these houses having to be taken off the market will be fat and happy. So to speak. You know what a metafur (sic) is, doncha?
By the grace of GLORC, I prophesize a vast homestead program under President Obama.
Oh yes and a chicken in every pot in every home. They can just hand the foreclosed homes out directly now and bypass the loan process entirely. Like a company town, but the government owns your ass.
Do not blaspheme against GLORC inspired prophesy, ye non-burkuh-wearing-woman!
It is not my wish, it is what I think might happen if some of these houses stay empty and continue to drive down their neighborhoods. Might start at a local level when property taxes aren’t paid, but the FNG president is going to point to the piecemeal patch job approach of fixing this by the current administration and he’s gonna wanna say he has a Grand Plan to clear this up once and for all.
Go with GLORC.
Boca, i’m a prop trader, have an office on the 3rd floor above Sloane’s ice cream. Used to live in NYC but moved the fam down here after 9/11 (we lived in the city). What i though would be a year stay until NYC cleaned up has turned into 7.
Actually I was semi-serious Anton.
Game, Boca is a good place to live, glad you stayed. Working right on Mizner sounds nice. I work out of my home, between the Intracoastal and A1A, over past the Boca Resort Hotel. Like a tropical garden ovah heah.
Boca, ah the resort… I love that place, thinking about joining just to use the beach club w/ the kids. I stick my ny partners there every time they come down. They can’t believe a resort that nice exists in downtown boca, quite an oasis…
You guys got to Joe’s Stone Crabs ovah theah in Boca?
I think the ownah is Mafia, but you can’t beat the crabs.
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I stayed at the Boca Resort a long time ago when AAA was running a special for cheap people like me. I recall playing golf there with my son and a couple in their 90s.
Jake, i think it’s “Jake’s” in boca, Joe’s is the famous one in miami. I’ve eaten at jake’s just once, maybe a year ago, was pretty good but big coin for a boca joint. Trulucks in mizner kicks all there asses now anyways..
TraderCaddy, the course is pretty decent for a resort course although its short and pretty tight. Dave Pelz has one of his short game schools there as well.
They have some celebrity golf members, I have teed off behind Greg Norman, and see Bernhart Langer in the clubhouse and restaurants.
I can confirm that Joes (the original one) is in Miami near Dinner Key Auditorium in the Coconut Grove area. I believe they added a Joes on Miami Beach awhile back.
I think Greg Norman and his new wife, Chrissy Evert live in Hope Sound. Very hoity toity area.