NOTE: His middle name really is King. You-can’t-make-this-stuff-up.
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fuck robert steele
Long live the KING
fly, what do you think about NCC? I was talking to the treasury dept there today as our company has over $10M sitting in deposit accounts there.
I’m from the Treasury and I’m here to help you.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Roubini on the Bailout – Thumbs Down
Mexico, Japan, Bolivia, Czech Republic, Jamaica, Malaysia, Paraguay – the United States of Subprime now joins you. Nouriel Roubini scoffs at this version of a bailout with some nice statistics; I’ll defer to him since I’m not a historian but if Roubini says no, I say no! 🙂
Is Purchasing $700 Billion of Toxic Assets the Best Way to Recapitalize the Financial System? No! It is rather a disgrace and rip off benefitting only the shareholders and unsecured creditors of banks.
Whenever there is a systemic banking crisis there is a need to recapitalize the banking/financial system to avoid an excessive and destructive credit contraction. But purchasing toxic/illiquid assets of the financial system is not the most effective and efficient way to recapitalize the banking system.
Such recapitalization – via the use of public resources – can occur in a number of alternative ways: purchase of bad assets/loans; government injection of preferred shares; government injection of common shares; government purchase of subordinated debt; government issuance of government bonds to be placed on the banks’ balance sheet; government injection of cash; government credit lines extended to the banks; government assumption of government liabilities.
A recent IMF study of 42 systemic banking crises across the world provides evidence on how different crises were resolved. First of all only in 32 of the 42 cases there was government financial intervention of any sort; in 10 cases systemic banking crises were resolved without any government financial intervention. Of the 32 cases where the government recapitalized the banking system only seven included a program of purchase of bad assets/loans (like the one proposed by the US Treasury). In 25 other cases there was no government purchase of such toxic assets.
Even in cases where bad assets were purchased – as in Chile – dividends were suspended and all profits and recoveries had to be used to repurchase the bad assets. (But in the United States of Goldman Sachs we are told executives won’t partake if you hurt their compensation or give away equity! ok ok we’ll bend on giving away equity because that only hurts the corporation and not the CEO’s personal wealth)
But government purchase of bad assets was the exception rather than the rule. It was used only in Mexico, Japan, Bolivia, Czech Republic, Jamaica, Malaysia, and Paraguay. Even in six of these seven cases where the recapitalization of banks occurred via the government purchase of bad assets such recapitalization was a combination of purchase of bad assets together with other forms of recapitalization (such as government purchase of preferred shares or subordinated debt).
In the Scandinavian banking crises (Sweden, Norway, Finland) that are a model of how a banking crisis should be resolved there was not government purchase of bad assets; most of the recapitalization occurred through various injections of public capital in the banking system. Purchase of toxic assets instead – in most cases in which it was used – made the fiscal cost of the crisis much higher and expensive (as in Japan and Mexico). (but it enriched the Dept of Treasuries friends the most! Wait, that’s just in the U.S.)
Thus the claim by the Fed and Treasury that spending $700 billion of public money is the best way to recapitalize banks has absolutely no factual basis or justification. (hmm, why am I getting flashbacks to 2003) This way of recapitalizing financial institutions is a total rip-off that will mostly benefit – at a huge expense for the US taxpayer – the common and preferred shareholders and even unsecured creditors of the banks. Even the late addition of some warrants that the government will get in exchange of this massive injection of public money is only a cosmetic fig leaf of dubious value as the form and size of such warrants is totally vague and fuzzy. (Hammer, don’t hurt ’em)
So this rescue plan is a huge and massive bailout of the shareholders and the unsecured creditors of the financial firms (not just banks but also other non bank financial institutions); with $700 billion of taxpayer money the pockets of reckless bankers and investors have been made fatter under the fake argument that bailing out Wall Street was necessary to rescue Main Street from a severe recession. Instead, the restoration of the financial health of distressed financial firms could have been achieved with a cheaper and better use of public money.
Indeed, the plan also does not address the need to recapitalize those financial institutions that are badly undercapitalized: this could have been achieved by using some of the $700 billion to inject public funds in ways other and more effective than a purchase of toxic assets: via public injections of preferred shares into these firms; via required matching injections of Tier 1 capital by current shareholders to make sure that such shareholders take first tier loss in the presence of public recapitalization; via suspension of dividends payments; via a conversion of some of the unsecured debt into equity (a debt for equity swap). All these actions would have implied a much lower fiscal costs for the government as they would have forced the shareholders and creditors of the banks to contribute to the recapitalization of the banks. (I think this comes next but after our current Treasury Secretary of the United States of Goldman Sachs “retires” after Jan 1 – gotta help his brothers out first)
Conclusion Nouriel i.e. how do you really feel?
Thus, the Treasury plan is a disgrace: a bailout of reckless bankers, lenders and investors that provides little direct debt relief to borrowers and financially stressed households and that will come at a very high cost to the US taxpayer. And the plan does nothing to resolve the severe stress in money markets and interbank markets that are now close to a systemic meltdown. It is pathetic that Congress did not consult any of the many professional economists that have presented – many on the RGE Monitor Finance blog forum – alternative plans that were more fair and efficient and less costly ways to resolve this crisis. This is again a case of privatizing the gains and socializing the losses; a bailout and socialism for the rich, the well-connected and Wall Street. (shocker) And it is a scandal that even Congressional Democrats have fallen for this Treasury scam that does little to resolve the debt burden of millions of distressed home owners.
Other than that, he found the plan to be wholesome, fair, and excellent. As I said, expect the government to be coming with hands out (or taking action in their own hands without asking US voters) in the next iteration of the mother of all bailouts v2.0
He does bring up a great point. Where were all the counterpoints and varying views during that 2 day dog and pony show i.e. Congressional hearings?
If you are interested in the Swedish plan, the NYTimes had a solid article here. Just keep in mind we’ve chosen the Jamaican plan instead 😉
ALL HAIL PRESIDENT OBAMA DEAR LEADER!! THE ELECTION IS OVER, DEAR LEADER IS ELECTED!!!
DOW to 6000 !!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO6qrtSTkew
Whats the deal with these Suzee[sic] Ormans and Dave Ramsey fucks…what an easy fucking gig ,no.
My grandma could do her job.
Bruce thanks for posting…Happy New Year fucker!
By the way the trade in Google was truly criminal! True criminal act if you ask me. Someone should go to jail over this or be fined heavily. If any of you had stops in I would highly recommend bitching the fuck out of Nasdaq for this shit.
That said, I personally got stopped out at a price of 414.50 with an activation of $397. Personally I am happy with the closing sell price but just hate that it could have been way worse.
IMHO, NCC is in a lot better shape than the other banks it is being compared to, and just got an upgrade from Oppenheimer. However, that’s a small consolation when your stock looks like it is going to zero and the financial world is going to hell. Not exactly a vote of confidence, but I dabbled in NCC and NCC preferreds at Monday’s close.
Obama Momma!
Take care of us all! Let us suck the tit of soialism!
By the way the bill is going to pass tomorrow, if your short get the fuck out of the way, we could be up 1000 points tomorrow.
Sell the news Gappy, it’s more highlights from Weimarland.
I’m guessing that chart is taken from the PPT?
Just a shot in the dark…
This is not me
who the fuck am I
I am a fuck
The fly is the best, he makes pple laugh what more can you pple ask for !!!
No one wins in this market maybe the fly can be the alien that wins
I rocked this shizzit back in 1847, Paulsonator – you ain’t got sheee on me:
The proletariat will use its political supremacy to wrest, by degree, all capital from the bourgeoisie…in the beginning, this cannot be effected except by means of despotic inroads on the rights of property…by means of measures, therefore, which appear economically insufficient and untenable, but which, in the course of the movement, outstrip themselves, necessitate further inroads upon the old social order…
Dude, I will give you this: you skipped the first four of my stages on the glorious road, heading straight to number five:
5. Centralization of credit in the banks of the state, by means of a national bank with state capital and an exclusive monopoly.
Good for you, Comrade P!
I’ll see you in hell-
KM
Fuck you Jeff. Fuck you. I am not you. Fuck off. Leave me alone. Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucccckkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk
Fly, are you going to add to your WB position tomorrow?
Dpeezy – correct.
Bill Oreilly called for C. Cox and Barney frank to step down immediately tonight. Classic shit for sure.
He also called for full investigation into joey bag of bullshit Washington Mutual CEO Alan Fishman.
While I don’t believe Mr. Oreilly has a full handle on how the financial markets work I was quite pleased with these recent developments on the “factor”.
These fuckers should burn.
To those of you who hate the “factor” and/or think it is a right wing conspiracy show please go fuck a 3 legged romanian billy goat named keith.
Thanks in advance.
How could anyone hate the Factor?
It’s a comedy goldmine.
Bill, what say you pinhead, O’reilly is a true pimp.
Fly, are you illuminated?
NCC will be bankrupt in 30 days.
PNC will eat them.
Hey, you posted a chart.
I neglected to mention 3 legged “GAY” romanian billy goat.
Carry on:)
“Robert King Steel”
Sounds like a Blues Musician !!!
^^ Oops, that was me 🙂
O’Reilly is the Mack Daddy of conservative talk show commentators, and if you want to get your Armageddon humor on, Glenn Beck is the way to go.
we will change the numbers and everything will be a-ok…..
Glenn Beck is okay. I actually watch Olbermann sometimes if I don’t get enough laughs from Oreilly and am still awake.
This just in, Palin is an idiot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npUMUASwaec
Oh, how the grand old party has slipped.
That is painful to watch.
The SNL sketch is hilarious.
None of that. None of the teevee boobs are worth watching.
Olbermann and O’Reilly, okay, but just for the comedic possibilities.
The radio guys are where its at, and there should be three you should listen to for thoughtful conservatism.
In order of their talent for logical discourse and/or good natured humor.
1) Dennis Prager — the man is going to heaven in a golden chair. Would that God would grant me his equanimity.
2) Dennis Miller — pound for pound the best “seminar caller” destroyer in the business. The velvet glove.
3) Michael Medved — sometimes gets on my nerves, and has always been in the tank for McCain, but a smart guy.
Rush? Savage? Entertainment, purely.
___
GMAB — she was cooked on that leading question from the start, no matter what she said. Given that, the ramble was her best out.
Couric had trouble reading her own damn cue card. Screw that condescending pixie.
__
I sometimes throw Savage on the radio, while driving. But, often times, Mrs. Fly forces me to take him off.
Too abrasive for her.
The only radio worth listening to is WFAN, specifically Joe Beningo.
I love all the Met fans calling up, in total despair. It’s quite funny.
Grab a drink and watch the show…
Nothing to see tomorrow
Jake:
Quit making excuses for Palin. She’s an idiot and will get eaten alive in the debates.
I still cannot believe McCain picked her. Fuck the headlines and the idiots who gravitate towards her positions.
How about a VP with experience? Someone up for the task?
Please do not compare her to the Dems. They are both idiots too.
I am just amazed at the little we have to choose from.
Really really bad radio guys with inexplicably big audiences:
1) Shawn Hannity: I think his entire audience is 49 year old moms from Lawn Guyland.
2) Mike Gallagher: unquestionably the most cringeworthy oaf on the airwaves. A lummox, a fool, a boor. An asshat. Unlistenable.
When dickhead libs paint stereotypes of conservatives, they paint this buffoon.
3) Neil Boortz: Off the reservation and annoying. Bad combo.
Honorary Mention: Hugh Hewitt — the dictator of the airwaves. “Hews” to the party line in such lockstep that he immediately backed this bailout sans question, and was one of the few that went into the tank for Bush on the Harriet Meyers nomination, for which he will never be forgotten. A true party man, he started out his career as an assistant to ex President Nixon.
Save for that, not a bad guy, and very charitable.
______
Grandpa Fly used to listen to Bob Grant. He is too old now.
Lost his fire.
Bill O’reilly’s radio show is god awful.
What’s his name, Mark Levin is good for constitutional matters.
Curtis Sliwa is terrible.
Actually, they all suck.
Hannity has zero humor. Can’t listen to him.
Jim Rome kicks ass.But he’s a sports guy.
I had a dream about Alaska.
Can I be the Russian President now?
Given the politcal realities, Fly, she was the best possible choice.
Who’d be better?
Romney? I love him and backed him for the nom, but his “big banker” persona and background would be the exact WRONG thing we need to front right now. On top of that the holy rollers hate Mormons.
Jindal? If I could put anyone into the Presidency right now it would be Bobby Jindal. I think he is the next supernova on the GOP scene. Unfortunately, he is more interested in saving Cajun’s state than in Veeping to the RINO McCain. Prolly a smart move.
Huckabee? Oh shit! I just threw up in my mouth!
___________-
Face it Fly, McCain can do no better right now than run with a hot, conservative MILF who
1) Faced down her own corrupt party, which just happened to be the GOP, and tossed the corrupt pols out.
(Contrast that with Machine Man Obama who BACKED his corrupt pals in Chicago)
and
2) Faced down BIG OIL by booting them out of an “insider” gas pipeline deal while regegotiating a $40 bn contract with a wholly different company (Canadian, in fact)… this move poured major bucks into the Alaskan coffers and her constituents’ pockets.
Contrast that with Barry and Plugs who have done, collectively:
1) Shit
and
2) Shinola.
_
Watch the debates tomorrow, then comment.
__
It’s hilarious listening to Savage’s rants when he gets himself worked up into an indignant rage. Pure entertainment if you can stand the vitriol. I always imagine the spittle flying.
What’s his name, Mark Levin is good for constitutional matters.
I forgot about Mark Levin, (“the Great One”) because he is only on in NYC, so I only hear him when I go back home.
He is funny as hell (as funny as Savage, and in a similar way) and whip smart.
Love to hear him roast callers. He’s a smarter Bob Grant.
My dad used to love Bob Grant too, too funny.
_____
Jake:
C’mon. You act as if McCain had no choice. I’d take Baghdad Bob ahead of Palin.
At least he will make me laugh.
You know he has his own tv show in Qatar now?
Great man.
Ok, I’m out.
Time to watch CNBC Europe. See what those fuckers are up to.
Boca, he’s pure comedy, that guy.
I once almost wrecked my car, I was laughing so hard at some rant he was off on about the San Fran City Council.
What conservative wouldn’t go nuts living in that town?
______
Fly — see what you did? You woke Comrade Ottnot up.
Now it’s mandatory Obama hymns until dawn, dammit.
______
Baghdad Bob is still alive? Whaddya know. We need to get him to do some Middle East stock and OPEC commentary.
It would be funny if we could get Savage to mention iBC. Maybe we need to do a bunch of posts about him?
I love his rants too, boca.
More on the Great Man, Baghdad Bob:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s27Oq5ot0ZI
Classic!!!!!!
Nite.
Fly, wake up… don’t drink the NY media kool aid.
She’s the fuggin governor of one of the fifty states, for goodness sakes, and with executive accomplishments under her belt. Shit, she even got a nice write up from that left leaning business rag “Business Week.” How many governors, not to mention women governors, have gotten that kind of business pub attention?
They hate her, Fly, with a burning passion. If she was harmless to their guys’ chances, they would not.
Think about it.
))))))
Call me shallow, but I like Palin purely because she’s a hot MILF and looks like Tina Fey.
You’ve brought a tear to my eye, Jake.
In gratitude, I give you more of your beloved…Oh! It’s gotta be all about job creation!
Jake: Fly… please think about Palin
Fly: Buzz off … time for CNBC Europe
Jake, check this out: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-fC1T3zH5E
Off to watch that CNBC too …. later Palin lovers, haha!
Holy shit, RC, that was painful.
A real spokesmodel for the Dems.
Have to admit, I laughed when he said, “Alaska? Ain’t even no crack haids in ALASKA!”
Lol.
_______
Our VP for the last 8 years is a guy who shot a lawyer in ther face
I’m pretty sure Palin’s not smart enough to successfully shoot someone in the face…
The old fool could have won the election simply by opposing the bailout and attacking the Messiah for supporting it. Maybe he can room with Bob Dole at the nursing home.
Jake:
Seriously are you mad (of course that’s rhetorical). The woman’s an idiot. did you here her answer to the NBC witch (couric)?
this is really bad.
Are n’t, like me fucking sick of the GOP throwing up people into the highest offices in the land who can’t even artculate their own ideas to the people.
This shit isn’t funny any more
Bush 1 was a useless speaker.
Bush 11
Bush 1’s VP choice
Now this bimbo. for fucks sake, it’s like trailer park trash in the VP house.
Can’t we do better than that or are we tapped out in the brains department. This shit is now embarrassing.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dead-cat-bounce-fresh-new-bull/story.aspx?guid=%7BA4120E42%2DCEE5%2D4C9B%2DAF4E%2DC330A40883F0%7D
mccain wants to get into her pants but can’t get it up, some leader, what a couple of clucks
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=awjusn9I2MWk&refer=home
Steel should’ve had my name.
Pawlenty would’ve been my pick for McCain’s VP.
Bailout /Debate
Listen to Savage then divide by 2. I love his accent and his general hateful disposition. Angry old fuck!
Fly good vid on VP hopeful… Thursday goes down as the biggest TV event in the history of mankind watch and see. Hopefully we all have insurance, right?
Chivas,
Fuck Trichet…. tell him to cut his damn interest rates if he wants to “save global finance.” I’m sick of carrying the weight for the Eurotards.
Big pussy shouldn’t have sold all his gold. Now he’s fucked.
__________
Contactor says:
Pawlenty would’ve been my pick for McCain’s VP.
Agreed, Pawlenty is another good choice… and in a normal year, I would’ve been fine with him.
However, a Northern state GOP’er is not enough differentiation for McCain given the state of the country right now. He needs to tack as far away from the current Presidency as possible, and you don’t get farther from Dick Cheney than S. Palin, Wonder Woman of the Frozen Tundra.
You see the liberal bar owner in Chicago who painted a nude of her to hang in his bar? Fuckers like “I totally disagree with her, but yet, I’m somewhat obsessed with her hotness.”
Then he goes and says “My daughter looks a lot like her, so I used her as a model.”
Love to be a “Fly on the wall” in those therapy sessions… yick.
___________
Listen to Savage then divide by 2. I love his accent and his general hateful disposition. Angry old fuck!
I told Fly in back channels what an honor it was that he used Savage on my Peanut of the Month banner. I thought he was from Crooklyn, actually, but that’s Prager.
Savage is from “da Bronx,” which makes sense, given his demeanor. He is one hilarious mofo, but I think — at least at this point in his career — more than a little crazy.
___
Just talking to friend of mine… he had to ring off to go into a meeting with his bankers right now… NCC bankers.
This is a really nice guy, but even he said “I think they are peeing down their leg right now, waiting for me.”
Whomever that fucker was who’s got ten million w. them… get out.
Your only safe “big bank” bets (for your bidness cash) are USB, PNC, JPM and WFC right now.
Temporarily.
___
Donny wins BIG again holding DUG overnight!
Fuck Off!
Chivas,
What’s your latest take on the refiners? I think you are due another PeeG post… 😉
__
Donny,
Picked up some EEV, SKF and FXP yesterday afternoon… I think they will outdo DUG.
Just saying…
_______
Jake … good luck on your picks.
God has shined a light on me. I did not buy one loser in September. As the Almighty is my witness … NOT ONE!
Donny, you are on a “Cajun-like” roll!
May it continue!
____
Jake,
lmao. trichet may cut tomorrow. i thinks odds are better than 50-50 that he will. if he does, watch out for the euro. eventually, i think that currency is destined to be toilet paper.
i still like the refiners. i think third qt earnings will surprise to the upside, that we will see upgrades and valuations are very compelling. in addition the seasonals are perfect for them now. i like them a lot. i own tso-vlo-wnr.
Jake, now i really think that the crisis is almost over. have you noticed what cnbc is doing today? they are now showing on going quotes for libor, gs, bac, jpm, and ms. lol. we have to be close.
The Don is the man. Is he going back into UYG? I am still holding that Fker.
Boys … this is just fuckin’ SICK! LoL
FUCK YES! DUG!
Hey ladies, what’s going on in this political thread?
The Fly is God.
UYG = current American Financial System. The 4 chosen ones BAC,JPM,BAC,C …but the Gov. eventually will be in charge.
Passing of the bill is merely a time to color up?
Not passing the bill is the equivalent of leaving a toddler in your Lexus while you run in for a latte.
Woooooow! Melissa Lee with new Palin-like specs.
Donny buys SSO @ 47.96
Donny dumps DUG at 41.32, and pockets an egregious 6 1/2% overnight gain. VICTORY … motherfuckers! Sweet Victory!
KCBILLdude … thx 🙂 same 2 u
Broken A: Whats you think of RIG sub 105? I’m thinking its worth a shot here.
Agree with Palin comments by Fly. its desparate & pathetic that the Repubs are trying to rally around such a weak candidate. I hear Jakes positives but thats a very thin reed. She is not as popular in Alaska, particularly among women, as advertised.
On the positive side for her: Expectations are practically nil for her tonight. If she comes through, it will be written what a genius she was for making people think she was a dolt. And, if Biden gets all high brow & condescending, that could backfire as well.
Dude dude up thread who said the ECB was going to cut rates tomorrow.
Rueters polling says that 81 out 81 economists polled think the Euros will leave rates unchanged tomorrow. Unless you know something these dudes don’t I’ll go with them.
Careful Donny. Hubris kills.
Cubs… are you zombie?
_____________
Chivas,
MS to zero. The bullshit bailout is more trouble than its worth. Let it die. This mark to market shit, the combined rate cuts and private equity can do the rest.
I suggest you read Dick Armey’s piece in NRO for his take.
Also, check out what George Soros has to say on the subject.
That commie fucker may be on to something here:
_________________
Instead of just purchasing troubled assets the bulk of the funds ought to be used to recapitalise the banking system. Funds injected at the equity level are more high-powered than funds used at the balance sheet level by a minimal factor of twelve – effectively giving the government $8,400bn to re-ignite the flow of credit. In practice, the effect would be even greater because the injection of government funds would also attract private capital. The result would be more economic recovery and the chance for taxpayers to profit from the recovery.
This is how it would work. The Treasury secretary would rely on bank examiners rather than delegate implementation of Tarp to Wall Street firms. The bank examiners would establish how much additional equity capital each bank needs in order to be properly capitalised according to existing capital requirements. If managements could not raise equity from the private sector they could turn to Tarp.
Tarp would invest in preference shares with warrants attached. The preference shares would carry a low coupon (say 5 per cent) so that banks would find it profitable to continue lending, but shareholders would pay a heavy price because they would be diluted by the warrants; they would be given the right, however, to subscribe on Tarp’s terms. The rights would be tradeable and the secretary of the Treasury would be instructed to set the terms so that the rights would have a positive value.
Private investors, including me, are likely to jump at the opportunity. The recapitalised banks would be allowed to increase their leverage, so they would resume lending. Limits on bank leverage could be imposed later, after the economy has recovered. If the funds were used in this way, the recapitalisation of the banking system could be achieved with less than $500bn of public funds…
Banks deemed to be insolvent would not be eligible for recapitalization by the capital infusion programme, but would be taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The FDIC would be recapitalised by $200bn as a temporary measure. FDIC, in turn could remove the $100,000 limit on insured deposits. A revision of the emergency legislation along these lines would be more equitable, have a better chance of success, and cost taxpayers less in the long run.
Expectations are practically nil for her tonight.
Especially given that the debate is tomorrow night.
________
Looks like 32 million shares think C is now too big to fail … hmmmm… C is the new PG … buy for defensive purposes
No JakeGint, I figured it was you.
____
Jake,
in a perfect world both would be done and the hope and expectation is that the teasury plan will facilitate and speed up the re-cap process. the reason you have to address the assets that the teasury is addressing is because of the huge derivatives market that is directly tied to those assets, and yet no one is talking about that or is afraid to talk about that. both have to be done, i repeat, both have to be done. one step at a time. the plan will go through.
Jake
That suggestion has been around for ages. it’s what the Scandis used in he 90’s. The old commie prick is just regurgitating old shit.
Jeffrey Cooper
09:55:00 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
A Blind Man’s Alchemy
Below is my concluding thought from this morning’s report that I wanted to share with Buzz readers as well.
The worst point decline in history on Monday followed by the third or fourth largest point gainer on Tuesday pretty much personifies the, “intense ups and downs,” I foresaw going into September. In a word, despite what may be a cacophony of calls that the low is in, should we see a successful retracement today of Tuesday’s snapback — a litany of those leaning to the bullish side — I will not believe it until we get through at least mid-November.
According to my cycle work, danger remains high. Fourteen months from the October 2007 high suggest no reversal month until December. Moreover, the pivot of the year in 1929 was September 3rd. The last key pivot was September 2nd, so that template is sobering and suggests caution going into the death zone beginning after October 20th to at least November 15th.
Speaking of early September pivots, it is interesting that in 1987 I believe the largest point gainer on the DJIA to date at that time occurred in the first week of October that year. That preceded the crash by a few weeks. But, I remember well the universality of sentiment that a pullback low had been installed. Beware of Trojan Horse rallies. My fear is that any celebratory buying greeting an eventual legislative package will be hollow as the realization that Wall St. has infected Main St. comes home to roost.
Jeffrey Cooper
09:49:45 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Big Time Bailout
The Fed just pumped $630 billion into the financial system. Hmmm. So why is the legislative debate over $700 billion wagging the dog so violently?
What are we missing when the Fed can act to that degree on its own authority without “permission?”
The trillion dollar shell game?
I am watching a pullback that retraces 1/3 to 1/2 of yesterday’s range—a 1-2-3 hourly pullback?
Jeffrey Cooper
0 9:55:00 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
A Blind Man’s Alchemy
Below is my concluding thought from this morning’s report that I wanted to share with Buzz readers as well.
The worst point decline in history on Monday followed by the third or fourth largest point gainer on Tuesday pretty much personifies the, “intense ups and downs,” I foresaw going into September. In a word, despite what may be a cacophony of calls that the low is in, should we see a successful retracement today of Tuesday’s snapback — a litany of those leaning to the bullish side — I will not believe it until we get through at least mid-November.
According to my cycle work, danger remains high. Fourteen months from the October 2007 high suggest no reversal month until December. Moreover, the pivot of the year in 1929 was September 3rd. The last key pivot was September 2nd, so that template is sobering and suggests caution going into the death zone beginning after October 20th to at least November 15th.
Speaking of early September pivots, it is interesting that in 1987 I believe the largest point gainer on the DJIA to date at that time occurred in the first week of October that year. That preceded the crash by a few weeks. But, I remember well the universality of sentiment that a pullback low had been installed. Beware of Trojan Horse rallies. My fear is that any celebratory buying greeting an eventual legislative package will be hollow as the realization that Wall St. has infected Main St. comes home to roost.
Jeffrey Cooper
09:49:45 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Big Time Bailout
The Fed just pumped $630 billion into the financial system. Hmmm. So why is the legislative debate over $700 billion wagging the dog so violently?
What are we missing when the Fed can act to that degree on its own authority without “permission?”
The trillion dollar shell game?
I am watching a pullback that retraces 1/3 to 1/2 of yesterday’s range—a 1-2-3 hourly pullback?
sorry for the duplicate entry
All you fuckers that think C will fail, answer me this. Why is C higher today than it was in August even though everyone has been trading on really bad news.
I think flymeister’s thesis is right this little fucker is gunna get bigger as it heads to 25.
An optimistic bailout press release should halt the slide for the time being, even if it’s bullshit, who cares? Actions this morning, scalped UGY from $17.25 to $17.90, bought a bit of JRCC @ $19.20, and some HK at $20, just nibbling but the bulls will be out this afternoon IMO. Holding SKF in size, waiting to average down, will hedge with UGY, waiting for pullback to maybe $17.60
SIRI actually moved more than a penny to the upside, fuckin WOW!!! (sarcasm)
No JakeGint, I figured it was you.
????
But you just said “The Fly is God.”
That’s what zombie says.
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Aside: Do I strike you as the blasphemous type?
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ah shit, going for coffee, didn’t feel like waiting, bought UGY $17.68
Rate cut coming real soon.
Donny buys DIG @ 57.30
The PPT is really nervous. Came in a few minutes early this morning. How about a survey? When will the FED cut? My bet…before market open on 10/17. Half point.
DevilDog,
Yes, the Fed will cut. I thought they would do it yesterday, but they didn’t. Guess they will wait until the bailout bill passes.
Nice work in September, Donny. But Hank & Paul caution you to knock it the fuck off or risk a ban on going long during months with an “r” in them.
FCX is being totally hammered!!!!
Anton … Donny is presently perverting the energy ETFs.
BTW, I’m not arrogant … I give God all the credit. He has indeed shined a very, very, fucking bright light on me.
…Just fucking around with a magnifying glass, Donny.
See you in 2015.
I caught that, Donny. Kind of surprised you went long DIG right now, but you’re hitting the ball with consistency and power, so swing away.
11:30:28 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Vibes from Minyan Tony “Snoop” Dwyer of FTN Midwest
This credit crisis is worsening rather than improving, which highlights that Monday’s drop was never about the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act that we didn’t expect to work. It is a convenient excuse that accelerated the losses on Monday. Remember, Monday the financials and markets were down significantly prior to the failure of the Bill to pass in the House and I believe the failure of the bill to pass provided an excuse to accelerate the selling.
See my note yesterday. I reiterate its importance, and I as wrote in my last line, I am backing off being even positive given the 5% rally until the two needed perception changes take place. That can happen very quickly but the credit crisis is worsening rather than improving despite the focus on it.
To highlight the intensification of the crisis we have attached a chart of the 5-yr CDS on General Electric (GE). This is default protection on AAA paper and is trading at 670+ basis points. It is basically calling into question GE ability to pay its debts and is certainly questioning GE’s AAA rating. This is rapidly becoming a major economic crisis as highlighted by a drop to 43 in the ISM Manufacturing Index just released. Individuals and businesses typically don’t think about spending more when they are asking the question if they can get their money out of the bank they believe is going to fail.
gold/silver up
euro down
Marty Chenard’s latest:
http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
…See you in 2015.
ROFL.
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Cripes. I need more sleep. I just got the 2015 joke.
Sometimes I like to play God.
And sometimes it seems God likes to play Anton Cigur.