I offer mixed messages on a drunken Sunday night.
With Gustav strengthening and barreling down on coastal morons, with several storms behind it, people who are gay/short oil are set to have their heads sawed off—taliban style—when trade opens on Tuesday.
I have a number of engineering, lumber and water filtration stocks worth perusing. However, let’s keep those on the back burner, until after the damage is assessed. One thing to note, Louisiana is the largest port for rubber and steel in the country. I suspect the price of rubber, steel and copper will take off. Keep an eye on coffee too.
Pick your favorite copper and steel stocks, while shorting General Motors Corporation [[GM]] and Ford Motor Company [[F]] .
At the minimum, the refiners are all screaming buys here, as the price of gasoline spikes higher—due to outages. Think crack spread.
At the present, I am long Valero Energy Corporation [[VLO]] and Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] . It makes sense to quietly buy the ones with the largest short positions.
Courtesy of iBC’s PPT service (it can do everything), here is a list of all U.S. refiners, sorted by percentage of shares sold short. Yes, “The Fly” went long the refiner with the biggest short position, as he intends on winning again.
| WNR | Western Refining Inc (WNR) | 29.9 |
| TSO | Tesoro Corp (TSO) | 19.8 |
| SUN | Sunoco Inc (SUN) | 16.1 |
| SUF | Sulphco Inc (SUF) | 12.8 |
| FTO | Frontier Oil Corp (FTO) | 11 |
| HOC | Holly Corp (HOC) | 8.7 |
| PETD | Petroleum Development Corp (PETD) | 8.1 |
| XTXI | Crosstex Energy Inc (XTXI) | 7.3 |
| ALJ | Alon USA Energy Inc (ALJ) | 7 |
| VLO | Valero Energy Corp (VLO) | 2.6 |
| DK | Delek US Holdings Inc (DK) | 2.6 |
| CVI | CVR Energy Inc (CVI) | 2.6 |
| MUR | Murphy Oil Corp (MUR) | 2.4 |
| EPE | Enterprise GP Holdings LP (EPE) | 2.3 |
| CLMT | Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP (CLMT) | 1.8 |
| SYNM | Syntroleum Corp (SYNM) | 1.5 |
| HES | Hess Corp (HES) | 1.5 |
| MRO | Marathon Oil Corp (MRO) | 1.2 |
What do you think of CLHB?
it seems as if you will be given ample opportunity to place your bets. energy is fairly flat and nat gas is down nearly 20 cents. ‘hurricane plays’ did not start to move until that wednesday after katrina hit. effectively, after the damage became apparent. although, it seems odd that the market will react in the very same pattern.
Nice! My thanks to the PPT Team. WNR was a new name for me.
It will be interesting to see what happens to my old favorite steel stock NUE. Might be time to get back in.
Time to go watch my stash of DVD’s.
Just heard prediction of Cat 1 for Orleans – not really serious. Worst to the west of Orleans. Here is a webcam on Bourbon St. still working. http://www.icorp.net/carnival/live.html
CLHB is good, last time I checked I think it had a 3.8.
Speaking of which Fly, the PPT isn’t working for me, even the basic ratings. Its the same website URL and pw as before right?
how do you use ppt?
You must be in the inner circle to use it now. (in other words, “a tabbed blogger.”)
Something about IQ reguirements, or something…
___
Danny:
It’s being upgraded.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=a5cVVmKT66sM&refer=energy
With Gustav strengthening…
He’s not. Actually getting weaker but still dangerous.
Maximum sustained winds over Cuba were 150 mph, now they are 115 mph. Still dangerous, but not strengthening. Also, the latest radar image shows that the eye of the hurricane has filled in, another sign of a weakening, not strengthening, storm.
Storm surge also has dropped from 18 to 23 feet, down to 10 to 14 feet.
Still, I wouldn’t want to be in New Orleans or anywhere close to the coast right now.
I’m done picking nits….for now.
cool, thanks Fly.
For the sake of comparison, Hurricane Katrina came ashore with sustained winds of 125 mph, so Gustav is a slightly weaker storm, at this point.
most of those shorts are winning
The refiners have been the pits.
I just got into them.
They will soar if gasoline gaps higher.
Final post, yen carry analysis I promised is up in the KoPG, even as I illegally trespass by many minutes, onto Veritas’s “turf.”
As expected, the analysis spells “final doom” for all.
______
To JakeGint, A Tabbed Bloggers is paying ScottTrade $7 to trade so there is clearly not IQ reqirement (or experience requirement) to use the PPT. Says he want to be rich, but he’s going to need some seasoning….
you are childporned fucked if you go long anything oil. Greatest short here of all time. It’s a cat 2 now. Meow!!
POOF…there goes the “end of world” hurricane/oil trade.
Oil futures falling as storm barely keeps a category 3…and if the levees hold up well…republicans win!
“With Gustav strengthening,” man, I love this site…
And the hurricane shorts have prevailed…. welcome to Monday, the day shorts swatted the fly with his own rhetoric.
Dale, If I had 5K in my account, as you must, surely, I’d want to pay by the share. One day you’ll realize that when you are buying higher quantity of shares, the flat rate account beats per share commissioning.
I hope you see that day soon.
John
We are glad you are done with this site. Making money or not on this storm does not justify your racist remarks.
There is no need for it here.
You will not be missed.
Fuck You
Once again, the refineries are the best chance of any oil related gains – if oil drops, as it is doing now big time, they should benefit with bigger crack spreads, although there may be a “dump everything oil” reaction tomorrow. Look at where VLO was when oil was at $110. That said, I’m still glad I bought a few DUG shares last week as a hedge.
Gonna be fun if oil breaks $110 decisively tomorrow.
Oil will bounce off the 200D SMA. Bear trap big time. Oil will be up to at least $125.
NG went below its 200 DMA
Who is John and does Woodshedder really have +5 karma? 😛
Poof. All of Fly’s and Ragin’s money are gone.
Oil close friday at about 115.5, Sunday it went into the highs 117, currently trading at 111 and dropping. Contrarian wins again. I hope my short MON feels this tomorrow, awesome.
Do not underestimate the power of prayer to poleaxe Gustav. Shit happens. So do miracles. The Man Upstairs hears the prayers of the weak and hurricane oppressed.
Last week, I told people to fade any rally in oil. There is no justification for high oil prices now that the planet is entering into, “Global Recession, Phase II”.
What do you guys think about airliners like uaua. Big short position. C&H on weekly. Anti oil play.
Airlines will probably rally from here, but their business still sucks.
So prayers turned Gustav away from the rigs?
Who would pray for such things?
Bastards.
Stranger things have happened. Gustav sounds like an older guy, so maybe he just was plain “petered out” and couldn’t “bring it” to the Gulf.
It will be interesting to assess the damage done to energy infrastructure and the offshore rigs. Many companies could only insure, for example, drilling assets in the Gulf up to an amount that was capped, in many cases, at $200 million—total.
Replacement cost on one jack up rig runs about $100 – $125 million for a used one in good condition. The deepwater stuff costs in the neighborhood of $350 – $450 million. So if there’s any significant damage to the rigs in the Gulf, the companies could be out a huge chunk of change (after paying deductibles), in need of financing to replace or retrofit/repair damaged rigs, and lost revenue as well.
There are 4 more disturbances in the Atlantic right now.
Where in the hell is Veritas5?
More fun just getting started. Maybe I’ll have to rethink all this.
Fly, I will have a very thorough post at about 6pm discussing the stunning 6 disturbances out there right now. Its going to be a wild next two weeks. The state of Florida may never be the same.
Long Orange Juice?
I’m not a commodities trader, but long OJ might be the way to go.