Look familiar?
“The July Bottom” 2000
July-October 2000
Okay, this time it will stick.
The March 22nd, 2001, bottom!
See, I told you. The March 22nd bottom is in!
April-June, 2001
Maybe not. Damn this sucks.
July-September, 2001
That’s it. God bless America. The September 21st bottom is in!
September-November, 2001
This is very non-complicated. We are in bull mode, baby.
Jan-March, 2002
You have to be kidding me, right? This market stinks!
March-April, 2002
Now that’s the bottom. Load the boat now!
May-July, 2002
BOOYAH, Cocaine Daddy.
July-August, 2002
That’s it. I quit. I can’t take this anymore.
September-October, 2002
Quit calling bottoms.
Fly
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Brilliant.
My good fellow. Your timeless wisdom is most refreshing. Summers Eve Douche has nothing on you Sir Fly.
THANK YOU, Fly!!! Finally someone with some cohones and the ability to read a fucking chart!!! (or with the ability to switch it into a 10 year view).
Seriously, I’ve been across several blogs since the market closed tonight and almost everyone is either whining about getting whipsawed today and how we’re suddenly in a bull market now, or already popping a bottle of Crystal in celebration of their finally fulfilled predictions of the ‘July 15th bottom’.
You poor little children. No wonder traders like the Fly (and yours truly) continuously keep taking your lollipops away from you, whilst taunting you for the clueless chumps you truly are. You have no imagination, no foresight, and suffer from chronic recency bias blended with a healthy dose of cognitive dissonance.
Here we are – at the beginnings of what will probably be remembered as one of the biggest trading opportunities of this generation. And the best you people can do is to whine and complain about losing a few bucks? Weren’t you issued a standard ‘thinking unit’ that exceeds the pursuit of your basic reptilian needs? Can’t you see a sucker rally when it slaps you in the face?
Doesn’t anyone ever read a history book? I mean, it’s all out there in plain view, but it seems even looking back eight some years these days seems to be tantamount with digging up ancient artifacts. Get a clue, people – we’re in a bear market, that’s what. Hasn’t anyone ever told you that the most bullish reversals happen in bear markets? Or that EVERY 300 point DJIA rally has occurred ONLY during bear markets? Of course they did, but the piece of turd lodged between your ears posing for a brain was unable to absorb this piece of information.
Oh, and to finish my little rant – here’s my message to the perma-bulls who were bidding up the market today: You can run, but you can’t hide. And I WILL be waiting…
fuck off moleloser- i believe you gave a mouthful of blowpops today whilst i savored some crystal as you ranted and whined…. if you were truly a gifted trader you would be able to recognize a sucker’s rally and bank coin off it….. instead, you take egregious losses and then try to reflate your douchebag ego by ripping on those whom truly have traders’ instinct and print piles of money from fucktards like you…. please, i beg of you merciless sir, taunt me no more as i capitalize on bear market bounces. for i certainly have no clue, nor no imagination or foresight. perhaps i should get a clue and realize we’re in a bear market. if only someone had told me that the most bullish reversals happen in bear markets. oh, that’s right, they did. that’s why i fucking banked egregious coin today while you read 4th tier blogs either whining about getting whipsawed or how we’re suddenly in a bull market now. thank you sucker rally for slapping me in the face and saying “hey, this is one of the biggest trading opportunities of this generation, make some fucking money off of me.” to which i replied sincerely, “thank you “le big mac.” now, if we could only remove the big piece of shit from mole’s skull, perhaps he too could refrain from getting bitch smacked by this bear market rally and bank coin…… on second thought, assfucks like him deserve to get clown raped……………
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQxgvDn0Iko&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLtwFugudZE
Fly, I already called the bottom a long time ago.
fly-
well said sir.
silly rabbits…..
Since we are getting into charts. I am getting to be a Lazy Man. Does anyone know the sector rotation for the last bear market.
Fly, I have called my union rep. You are no longer allowed to put charts on your blog.
However, he did say, “Take it easy on the guy, eh? He’s been takin’ a brusin’ de last couple a weeks. At least he’s usin’ Big Charts now, in place of that homoey Yahoo shit he usually draws on. Big improvement!”
You think Steve’o or the Captain’s of PG MCD AIG LEH INTC GM F MMM SNDK AAPL GOOG VLO YHOO MSFT HRB…give a fairy fuck about these HOMO charts. Sometimes you just have to color up– walk around a little.. talk to the avg. old guy on the street while your pushing him down a stairwell.
When The Music Plays You Dance.
—-Chuck Prince
Yo, Mole, Methinks Fly is being sarcastic. I could be wrong, but then I like to drive my oil tanker while drunk off my ass too.
“if you were truly a gifted trader you would be able to recognize a sucker’s rally and bank coin off it”
Well, as a matter of fact – I did 🙂 And then followed up with a boat load of cubes puts. I’m not even going to bother insulting you back – that would be tantamount to wasting one’s linguistic skills on a cockroach. Why don’t you grab a few more breadcrumbs and scuttle back to the hole whence you came before I decide to take your $500 account to the woodshed?
“Captain Hazelwood” – yeah, I picked up on Fly’s sarcastic streak – kindo of stares you in the face – LOL.
Mole,
You have any plays this week, you were money last week.
I’m a believer in the Max Pain theory of markets. Markets go down, gets all the chasers and mo-mos short, then spikes higher and keeps going higher until the last weak short capitulates, and then sells off until the last weak long capitulates.
Over and over. Meanwhile both longs and shorts get hosed.
95% of investors get killed. And the 5% that has the staying power and capital to stick to their correct fundamental thesis without using leverage win huge.
Your charts are terrible, I can’t even read the scale.
Better PowerPoint show than Al Gore. Fly for Vice-President
Generals Fighting the last war…..
Sound Familiar?
Tell me when the plane is going to hit the towers?
Cajun – I really love $UTIL (short XLU, long SDP). MONSTER H&S that’s now breaking. It’s a long term trend trade, if you’re interested in that kind of thing.
“I’m a believer in the Max Pain theory of markets. Markets go down, gets all the chasers and mo-mos short, then spikes higher and keeps going higher until the last weak short capitulates, and then sells off until the last weak long capitulates.”
EXACTLY how the markets work – they are efficiency engines geared to inflict the maximum amount of pain. It’s all about psychology and cognitive biases – and the markets exploit just that. I’ve been snacking in the last two weeks and have been very lucky (i.e. got longs that went up when the market tanked and short that did the inverse), but unless you’re a daytrader this market is a cruel mistress.
What makes the July bottom different from the January and March bottoms is the dollar is strengthening and commodities are tanking.
Italy, Spain, Germany, Canada, Japan, Australia and New Zealand are on the cusp of recession. The U.S. is too, but our monetary and fiscal policy has been very accommodative for a year now. It looks to me like investors are betting the accommodative policies will work, and the U.S. economy will recover sooner, so they are pulling money out of those and other markets and putting at least part of the money to work here.
Everybody keeps talking about how well healthcare stocks are doing. But take a look at the Russell 2K. It’s up like 14% from the July bottom, leaving it down only 4% for the year. Consumer discretionaries like homebuilders, airlines, gaming, restaurants, and some retailers have done well, too. Theoretically, small caps and consumer discretionaries get hurt less by a strong dollar, and those are the stocks that have performed well since the July bottom in equities and the dollar.
I interpret the strengthening dollar as a sign of increasing demand for dollar denominated assets. That is the important difference between the July bottom and those that occurred in January and March.
And it may be why the July bottom is “the bottom”.
Pudfucker “I interpret the strengthening dollar as a sign of increasing demand for dollar denominated assets.”
I would argue that the strengthening dollar is due to the fact that USD is benefiting from the selling of AUD,GBP mainly. However, most would not put these USD into dollar denominated assets such as real properties or any financial instruments. although for Bonds hmm i don’t know, corporate or gov’t.
Molecool rules!!!!!