With crude “super spiking” and banks unable to raise capital, after blowing through 150 billion, I sense panic. I told you “The Fly” smelled panic the other day. It was in the air. The aroma of stupid, mixed with overzealous speculation, has resulted in a “fuck you, you’re dead” tape.
Quite honestly, “The Fly” is victorious. There is no need to explain my actions or what I believe might happen, over the next week, or year for that matter. My state of triumph cannot be matched and is too much for many of you haters.
At the end of the day, my blend of long energy/short everything else, resulted in a sharp gain of 6.2%, mind you.
Without doubt, “The Fly” will be eagerly awaiting the forthcoming carnage that awaits many of you “market participants” come Monday.
In closing, I am flush with liquidity and overwhelmed by accolades.
Off to celebrate over a fine Bordeaux.
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One of the best days of the year for me too…
Coal/steel/oil up ….financials dead…
Why the fuck was FED up?
Hey
Werent you the one who was buying SMN and getting de-balled until you couldnt take the pain anymore and gave up? Great call- Im sure that had nothing to do with your time machine, right? Was the time machine in the repair shop after crashing it into MVIS? Ouch….
Dow up 150 on Monday.
Im aware of big news that comes out late Sunday night, are you?
I take it you didnt get the memo.
Yes. I cut my losses on SMN, after a sharp loss. Last I checked, everyone books losses from time to time.
As for MVIS
It was a giant winner. I was long from high 1’s. Get your facts straight, fuckface.
You still got your SKF?
Fuck you.
Hank
Have a good weekend all.
The whole day I was jealous of you, with that incredible pair trade “Long Oil, short everything.”
rofl @ font page pic.
“Im aware of big news that comes out late Sunday night, are you? ”
ONE stop being an asshat. You’re probably one of those poor fucks that got assraped to the tune of 10% today with a short oil / long financial position.
In a few short weeks, FED will buy LEH, via stock swap. My bank calls are never wrong. Also, LEH will pay a special dividend consistenting of two boxes of hash rounds. I love those things.
FLY
Giant winner MVIS? C’mon!! You bought probably a 10th of your position at 2 and the rest at the top and then on the way down
Switch that fine Bordeaux out for a six pack of ZIMA.
Zomething different
I love you FLY, really I do.
Buckle my shoe.
CAP
Do you call yourself that because you are balding and always wear a baseball hat?
My only position today was IPI, until of course the last 10 minutes of trading went I went shopping- which was for the invite only party on Monday.
Sucks to be you- out of the know and losing you hair.
later Cap
Fuck a tree.
Three…Four… SMN’s a whore
I love how briefing.com and CNBC paints lipstick on this pig…
“Careful examination of the data revealed that the jump in the unemployment rate was not a reflection of lower employment levels (or an indication that the nonfarm payroll data are misleading). It was due either to a large number of people re-entering the labor force and being counted as unemployed, or to a one-month aberrant swing in the data. Our bet would be on a combination of the two.”
yeah right – all day they pushed this story – please let me wake up tomorrow and see them in a soup line!
What a great day! Long Nat Gas/Coal/Steel and short financials couldn’t be working better.
I did cover my short on KEY at 17.50 for a nice profit but i am still staying short KBE.
Since I had such a good day I picked up some AAPL. Hopefully the new iphone drives the stock to $200 next week.
CAP’s girls a whore
Fly,
I didn’t get a chance to respond to your previous post re: “retarded oil bears”. So, I respond herein:
I have been an oil bear since May 27th and now have a full position in play including full hedge. Now, I am the first to tell everyone that I was knocked down the elevator shaft yesterday by someone with sharp elbows, but that is why I wear protection. Because of that protection, I am up today on my short oil theme.
Shorts: APA (-1.11%), FSLR (-1.95%), OIH (-1.47%), and SWN ( 1.30%)
Long: DUG ( 2.43%)
Hedge: DUG June 29 Putts (-15%)
Overall P/L change today for the short crude play was up 0.2%.
Overall P/L since short crude theme put into Play is up 0.4%.
So,have I been wrong the past couple of days with my theme (and I do take ownership for it)? Yes.
But the “historic” rise that we have seen in crude in the past 2 days has generated profits for my short crude portfolio.
Odd, no?
Very truely yours,
Retarded Oil Bear
P.S. It’s Money Management Bitch
I keep thinking about…
…all that energy-consuming capital equipment that was spec’d and put into service in a period when $25/bbl (plus inflation) was seen as a conservative assumption to use for long-term planning.
At current high energy prices and low (for the credit-worthy) interest rates, the economic life of a lot of equipment is much shorter than was assumed when it was put into use.
Alternative-energy provides exciting pure-plays on rising global energy demand, but there are a lot of technology and market risks. High-efficiency equipment doesn’t require any new discoveries, or new markets, or expensive new infrastructure, or significant changes in end-user behavior, or permittings, or public hearings, etc.
I’m trying to recall the name of a big equipment company that was talking even 5-8 years ago about seeing a big business opportunity for them in equipment to utilize industrial waste heat – generally for on-site use. Industry has been using waste heat ever since there was waste heat, of course, but the company was talking about the potential to extend waste-heat utilization beyond the easy cherry-picking that had been going on.
I’ll have to do some googling and thinking and see if I can identify the company and see if they have gone anywhere with the idea.
I know this has been a losing bet but I shorted a lot of DBO at 50.82 today with defined risk at 53.25. Changes in direction usually come on very high volume and today really felt like that blow off top in USO. I don’t believe there has ever been an $11 move in oil that I remember and it really feels like the circus came to town today. To hedge this I have gone short a few airlines and I also have room for another purchase should we top tick 150.
It should also be noted that I usually take the opposite side of all newspaper articles. Off to prepare my balls with alcohol should the hot blade come down on me.
Anyone else coked up like me on this trade?
Oil short goes bonko.
http://view.break.com/513310 – Watch more free videos
holy shit! does that asshat “ONE” seriously have -378 karma points on that comment up there?? that’s amazing!
give that man a negative medal
Hey guys, my plastic surgeon just added the new implant! YES! I changed my name to reflect my new “measure”. Now I’m off to be a jerk on other investing blogs, see you around.
i’m long coal and steel. it’s been a good week.
very nice Fly. Thanks in part to the Godliness of IBC, I ended the week up 6%(11% in my options account), despite the destruction of my egregious OTM USO puts.
Hedges like Long gold, short VLO, and long CLR held up my USO puts well, and IPI and CMP helped.
Betting against financials through SKF and various regional banks and LEH MER kicked ass. I can only imagine what would have happened if I didn’t feel a compulsion to “outguess” the market on oil. I sold all of my USO puts except for a couple LEAPS. I also sold DUG which also helped ease the pain of USO. I am doing the opposite for now and will bet on short term strength on energy names and oil until proven wrong, while maintaining my longer term uso put in case the insane momentum takes all of the businesses in demand of oil bankrupt overnight, leaving no demand, and a financial armegeddon.
I am an oil shitter no longer…
well, for at least a few months we’ll see.
Thank god I just made it in time to fill up down the street. They are already changing the signs from 4.60 to 4.73 for the cheap shit here in the Chi. Fuckiing taxes make up 87 cents of that. Did I mention Barrack is from here, its a taste of what is to come and I love giving my money away. Fuck might as well work hard and give the shit to someone else.
Andy, as much as Bush has been oh, so great for the country… You are right, heavy taxes are about to ream us all. blame the democrats? pfft. such an easy, retarded Fox News viewpoint. take a look back on how W and Chaney raped and pillaged this country and let Wall St. fabricate such things as the Housing Bubble.
Bernanke is shitting on our dollar to save Paulson’s buddies (wonderful effect it’s had on the markets), the Government is going broke bloating up to the largest it’s ever been to pad the employment numbers with worthless (for life) government employees, states are going broke (CA the 6th largest economy in the world or something like that bleeding cash) and everywhere you look cities, counties all going broke.
Yeah, blame the Dems, that’s good. I guess in your world if you don’t turn around to look back to see who’s raping you up the ass it never really happened.
Hey Fly, 52 week low on VSE. Odd no?
blowhard, well said!
I sold out of VSE and AVR yesterday. I guess you didn’t read the blog, fucker.
You need to read it, everyday, for the rest of your miserable life.
What is it– Friday Night Commies? How exactly did Bush and Cheney pillage the country, asshat?
Two second civics: There’s a few important ways the country can be pillaged – egregious taxes, high energy prices, and the intentional dilution of the dollar. Commie Environut Dems are responsible for the first two and asshat Bernake for the last. Bush nominated Bernake, so I guess you got him there, genius.
Perfect answer now is to elect more Marxists to office so we can make it even harder to access our own resources, and make a living in the private sector.
Fly, I am beginning to think you may need an install an IQ test bar before letting just anyone post here. Just too many dumb m’fers, lately. Beginning to make me cranky.
Good thing I hedged my Lakers bet with USO long.
Fly, thanks for the natty plays, banked some coin on those this week.
Limit Up
Out of Control
Jake, anyone that wastes their time with Rep vs. Dem distraction is the one that needs an IQ test. Don’t you know that our 2 party system is just a dog and pony show or an elephant and donkey show in this case? There is only one party running the scam called America. Do you know what it is? Let me know if you need to buy a vowel.
I wanna buy a vowel: Can I get NUE ? or maybe JOYG ? How about BUCY ? or MXE are any of those available?
Jake, you’re an idiot too if you can’t figure it out. Show me where there’s been real growth? The last 8 years have been a smoke and mirrors show where W and his lot got everyone all pumped up on being isolated Americans and how great they are.
Hate to tell you, but we need down cycles as much as we need up cycles to keep everything healthy. Remember that next year when the DOW will be trapped in a 11-11500 range and probably lower the next year. The spending and policies of the “small government” republicans have all but guaranteed our own version of what happened to Japan. This country is going nowhere for quite some time to come.
Call me communist if your assinine brain wants to, but when you fight hard against natural down cycles this is what you get.
Barron’s feature predict beaten up ethanol stocks are ready to rise as ‘biofuels have a bright future.’ Three stocks in particular, Aventine (AVR), Pacific Ethanol (PEIX), and VeraSun (VSE) have plummetted from from peak levels and are ready for a bounce. With all three of these names trading below book value, they should get some new life as the industry’s power lobby in Washington helped get the farm bill passed (with Congress overriding a presidential veto) which retained most of the government’s ethanol subsidies. Though vulnerable to increases in the price of corn, the US may increasingly turn to ethanol which now costs $2.50/gallon ($2.00/gallon to refiners after the federal subsidy) versus the wholesale price of gasoline above $3.30/gallon.
hey, thanks for those 3 excruciatingly fucked up charts (AVR, PEIX and VSE).
when i see charts like this, it makes my heart go pitter-patter
off to see if things are as fucked up as people think they are………….
edit, 3 minutes later:
yep, all 3 are financial disasters, no better than riverboat gambling. thanks anyway tho!
Don’t you?
Cool beans.
I was going to rebuke commie asshats who can’t tell the difference between pro-tax and anti-tax gov’t but I’m wasting my keystrokes.
We’re talking a lazy, community college way of looking at life, an excuse not to vote. Stay dumb, s’okay w. me.
In the meantime, that schizophrenic lizard is one of the best fucking things I’ve ever seen. Kudos, whoever the fuck you are.
I like lighthouses too.
For the record.
___________
Boomer — WTF was that? I tried to listen to it, but my volume wouldn’t go low enough.
Was he playing that shit … through a banana?
Almost worth it for the chickita w. the decollatage on the left, at least before she’s sausaged out of the picture.
__
That is what the kids are listening too. Dan Deacon. Too hip for even the hipsters.
http://www.dandeacon.com/mp3/
Its cool how he is deconstructing the artist/fan relationship. Free music. No stage barrier. No costuming or lighting.
Make no mistake – he sucks. But that is irrelevant.
Boomer, I’ve been listening to some of his .mp3s. I kind of like them. I’ll tell you what is for sure…My kids absolutely are mesmerized by them. When they heard the songs starting, the immediately ran into the room, and started dancing, and didn’t stop. Kind of like those youtube videos.
I bet the record execs hate him.
I love it ! Give me a hug !
btw. any of you guys ever go on ninjavideo.net ? wicked site.
I see from those two videos that there is an ample supply of drugs in America. SHORT drug stocks due to over supply and price drops causing margin declines while distribution costs are rising due to higher gasoline prices along the interstate highway distribution system.
Barrons and ethanol both suck.
So I’m sittin’ here hungover in my office at home spending some of my Sunday watching the re-run of CSPANs coverage of George Soros and cronies talk about rising oil prices in front of some committee. It sounds lame, however interesting given the profession I am in. What a fucking joke. Does the United States government understand that there are roughly 300 million Americans and 6.4 billion other people on this planet? As technology and emerging markets increase so will the demand of oil. They sit there, make the dollar into a shitty piece of paper by printing it at will while cutting interest rates and expect the price of a global commodity based on the dollar to be cheap? Not to mention the billions they pump into the system to help dumb banks and dumb people after making stupid decisions. Take some personal responsibility. You have to be kidding me. The writing was on the wall when crude broke through $50 a barrel. Oil to $220 fucker. Maybe then people will smarten up and realize that a 15% interest rate isn’t so bad. If you are employed as a Chili’s restaurant manager, drive a Hummer, live in a 6,000 square foot home and have four credit cards, you have what is coming to you. Get ready for the next few years, they will be fun.
Crude, damn straight! However, I still plan on driving my 9 MPG, 700 HP Viper at least every other Sunday!
I’m thinking about going long a handful of beaten down names at the open for a scalp. Anyone else thinking the move on Friday was overdone?
Friday was just the beginning. You better be a very fast scalper. IMO I think we go down hard Monday and Tuesday. Bounce WED then down further to a minimum of S&P 1300, however, more likely 1270 or lower.
Boomer –
Yes, market melt is overdone.
Everything will be fine.
Stocks are cheap.
Anything bad is the democrats fault.
Goldilocks is still alive and, clearly, George Bush is doing a tremendous job.
Boomer, I’m not ready to go long yet.
I guess LEH doesn’t need additional capital. They are just doing this for shits and giggles.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/financial-services/10420352.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA