See, everyone is fixated on the amount of write-downs at our dumb banks. However, what is being lost in the greasy sauce, somehow, is the health of the underlying business’.
During the tough times of 2000-2002, there were no deals. Deal firms were fucking starved, forced to push out cornball preferred offerings.
Nothing hot.
Speaking to friends, I can tell you, deals are in jeopardy of being canceled. When markets dive, the risk appetite of investors vanishes, making speculative deals, via secondary or ipo, nearly impossible to price. And, if they do get done, expect them to be priced down.
My point: deal firms like [[LAZ]], [[GHL]], [[TWPG]] or [[COWN]] will suck wind, indefinitely. Moreover, big brokerage firms, like [[LEH]], [[MS]], [[MER]], [[JPM]], [[BSC]] and even [[GS]] will suffer too.
Also, any companies with loads of debt and a need to go to market for capital will be shorted, until oblivion. If XYZ corp relies upon the markets for capital, while those markets are essentially shut down, they will be forced to either default or raise cash, via undesirable means—such as PIPE’s.
In short, examine the stocks you own. Make sure they have pristine balance sheets and avoid the temptation to bottom fish.
In my opinion, all of the stocks mentioned above are shorts.
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Whats “PIPES”
So it is written, so let it be done.
Fly rules.
Baby Bear Fly is growly like a grizzly.
I rike it!
http://www.sec.gov/answers/pipeofferings.htm
thanks
PIPES often come with a skull and crossbones lable
A show of hands of those who think we can have a decent rally shortly, as within a day or two?
Any takers?
OK, who says we go straight to hell, no letting up on the brakes, no detours?
hmmmm ?
I-banktards are left with the trading desks to support them
volitility is the new “Black”
It’s hard to believe we have spent almost all day in this range. What kept us from going down another 200. Makes one wonder wtf is up.
Markets down 3% across the board globally.
POOL is another good short. “Luxury items” to the already fucked up housing situation.
PIPEs are in short, for asshats, and criminals.
And criminal asshats.
FWIW, I’ve never been this busy.
Knocking hard on wood.
Juice,
We’ll have a rally. I’ll probably sell those FXP calls before the end of the day.
ag correction underway, try not to eat all the corn together
Is anyone going long for a trade, and in what?
Fanny and Freddie tell me to buy KRE (Regional Banks ETF) here for a daytrade.
Boomer,
DNDN long given news overseas and depressed stock price.
Long CF puts from yesterdays post
Long JNPR Boomer.
Ducati was right all along about stocks shitting themselves, no?
Believe it or Not: A couple uber smart & seasoned traders I know would NOT be surprised at a reversal today.
That said: they are NOT betting on it.
Anyone get hurt with EDU?
Yikes … down 23!
Would that put MVIS’s future in trouble??
thanks.
Also, long HD is making for a nice daytrade.
Jim Baboon said he expected ‘bold action’ when he gave Shittybank a buy. He should have sold if he wanted that.
“Is anyone going long for a trade, and in what?”
Boomer,
ARNA is looking to BTFO.
Blood clot drug results were favorable for Phase I.
Maybe a Costanza trade in this market.
Not touching it, though.
Another reason I may lighten up on some shorts today…
When was the last time you’d seen a cover of the Wall Street Journal THAT bearish??
Other possible long trades:
LGTY, SCON.
VIGN is breaking out…an old name from the past.
Good luck.
George Costanza says long China tonight, unless we end positive today. If positive, short China will work in Costanza land.
shorting into any rally right now is a good idea.
Took the words outta my mouth re ARNA ….
Get out of FXP!!!!!! Pissonme on CNBC just woke the world up to it.
Fun with MOS Fibs:
Take the start/low of the recent long term upmove @ June 13, 2006 ($14.06) and draw the fib lines all the way to today’s high ($110.98) and check out the results.
Fibonaccis amaze the shit out of me.
The first fib retrace line is RIGHT at $87.80 which is also the bottom of the 1/9/08 red hammer candle body (reversal signal) and the bottom of the white candle body for the very next day.
Coincidence? I think not.
Fly,
Great call on FXP! You must truly be banking coin the first two weeks of the new year.
Lung Sac:
No need to “get out” — just sell the Feb $95 calls to “absorb coin” from the whooping Chinaman.
Jake,
Fibonacci’s are part of the mystery of the universe.
A musician once told me that many classical music scores have an inherent structure to them, not unlike Fibs.
OmegaHound:
Your MOStache has “filled the gap” it left yesterday at $99.15
Now, let’s see if it ends up tasering your balls, or mine.
Alls I can say is “Don’t Tase Me, Bro!”
Dawg,
Yes, Fibs have something to do with natural entropic movements in nature, behavioral psychology and a whole raft of extremely spooky shit.
One reason I don’t make it a practice to “have a couple of beers” with geeky mathematicians.
Jakester, Minion of Shorticus,
I’ll be out on a break below 99 on the shares I bought last Thurs. I’ll probably buy it back if it gets down to $88.
Will still hold most of my MOS with basis under $63.
I currently have an “ask” directed to the Fly Financial Family of Funds (or the “FFFF”) of $14.00 for my January ’08 RIMM 103.63 puts.
Do you think I’ll get filled today?
FXP just busted above the intraday high.
IOW — not time to sell those $95’s just yet!
Jake,
Ahhhhhh…..Confucius say “when you feel like there no way to make mo money off poor bastids looking for silver lining, feed them more hope.”
RTI – one om my basic shorts is blowing crap all over the house right now. Still pales in comparison to FXP.
Anybody watching NEM? Stock is unchanged which is amazing concerning the carnage going on in the metals stocks. Me thinks there is something fishy going on such as a takeover (always mentioned the last few years).
Fly makes an awesome bear like only someone who lost a bundle in the Dot.com crash can.
This isn’t even close to the dot com crash right Fly? So far we are only having a correction and it could be argued that stocks are cheap relative to treasury yields and a rally could come anytime. The bubble could be in the ten year IMO.
Am I being alarmist when I say — We are about to break R/S. A gap down tomorrow or Thursday could fire off all sorts of sell triggers and send the market in a dive. Seems to me the Fed has to cut rates tomorrow or Thursday if Intel or the CPI blows. Otherwise this market is going to fall apart.
Hammer on SMN…
I got one deal for me. Picking up some ddm and uwm going into the close. We are at a key point on DOW charts, so a geeked out reaction to INTC after hours could lead to a nice pop in the morning. However, I am not closing any of my shorts. Will be peeling off those shares in the morning.
Insane trade, but I just bot 1000 QLD $81.30 for an overnight trade.
Diagonosis: Verified.
More like “gamble” than trade.
It is one of those fucked up insane trades that usually leads to an ass kicking. However, unless we have one colossal fucking meltdown overnight, the downside should be limited given the moves down we have had this year. Upside pop is worthy of this inanity. DOW close held 1/9 low, so any good news coming out of INTC (global strength) could be nice for a pop. It is nothing more than an overnight trade.
wowzer! but don’t link a video of your cajones to this blog!
Gap up tomorrow, after INTC shows you how good they are without AMD in their hair.
It was based on INTC moving up strong from 3:00 to 3:45. By the time I put it on, INTC crapped out again in the last 15 minutes.
If INTC pulls an IBM, or if the FED surprises, I win. If not, I lose. Won’t be the last losing trade.
It’s printing $81.80 AH, but I’m going to gamble.
INTC misses. So much for the dice roll.
AHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAA!!!!
Shorticus HAS SMOTE THE GOAT!!
Sorry Pudfucker, my son, I was not meaning to cast you into a lake of fire there.
More celebrating the accuracy of my own lightning bolts, that’s all.
Well, yeah. Only thing that can help us now on this trade is Helicopter Ben overnight. Good time to shut down trading for a few days while I head to Park City for some fun and to get some discipline back into my bones.
INTC sucks so bad that it’s driving every stock in the world down. no kidding. not only the obvious – every tech from AAPL to WDC down after hours, but even FXP went up AH as well. HD dropped, for heaven’s sake. impressive. more global end-is-nigh-ism starting tonight.
Alvari,
Hope it works out for you.