…was garbage, along with all other “diet” colas…but being a tabbed blogger here in the Louvre of financial blogging? Well, that would be pretty fucking awesome.
So, yeah, I’m announcing my candidacy.
You may have read my blog, you are probably are not following me on Twitter (just click on the link and click “follow”…honestly, what do you have to lose?), but if you are, you have a pretty good idea of my “style”.
I take pride in my ability to communicate through the written word. I will self-deprecate over self-promote or gloat…as I prefer to rip myself, than to shit on the efforts/ideas of others. Lets be honest, trying to extract coin from the stock exchange is hard enough. Writing about trying to extract coin from the market (along with being honest/transparent) is a daunting task…one not to be taken lightly.
As a steward to the greatest financial website ever known to man (and any other life forms) I have always brought my “A-game” and will continue to do my best to entertain, educate and enlighten.
In honour (sic) of the impending meltup, this morning I’m looking for stocks that are hovering near their 20 day SMA, and have greater than 15% of available shares sold short. After some analysis and deliberation, I will be watching the following stocks today to try and catch some squeeze action:
$KBH
$X
Options are my instrument of choice here. With $KBH, I’m eying the January 14 calls. $X, the January 21 calls. Both of these stocks offer well defined support levels, so any hint of weakness around those points, I’ll bail on them.
You can follow me on twitter, to see if/when I pull the trigger on these (in addition to being subjected to my limitless wit….).
The day started off so gloriously. I settle into my office chair at 7 AM and watch as the futures slowly fade. Then the precious metals all take a shit just after 8. The energy was palpable.
The market opens, and right away it’s pretty obvious that the early trend in stocks is downward. As I leisurely alt-tab between my real work and the stock market, prices, almost instantaneously, levitate to where they opened.
Beads of sweat form on my brow.
I likely release several curses under my breath.
Now I am completely distracted.
Fuck me.
FUCK ME.
I capitulate.
At 10:00 am, I was nearly break even. I close the trade ($QQQ puts) in the next half hour for a gut-wrenching loss.
Some lessons: I entered the trade too early. After yesterday I thought it looked like a really nice short setup…and in theory, it probably was. What we are seeing in this thin tape is that optimistic/threatening comments by our idiot elected officials can alter the course of the market VERY quickly.
Like I said, all indications were pointing toward short-term downward momentum at the open. The jump from the lows to ‘break-even’ (where the market opened) on the day took all of 20 minutes.
Even in defeat, I made the correct decision. The market strength was undeniable…for the second time this week, bulls took control and plowed higher. I was skeptical on Monday, but after a second time, I’m flexible and experienced enough to know when to step aside.
After a brief period of despondency (and a cheeseburger), I needed to find something to trade. After a big loss, the common reaction is to get it all back (AND MORE ) as soon as possible. Having fallen into this trap many times in the past, I knew that I needed to do the opposite and find a small, well thought out trade.
I ran a screen earlier in the day and $UVXY just happened to come up. Have you ever taken a look at the fucking weekly $UXVY chart? No? Well, here it is:Honestly…what the fuck is that shit?
After seeing this, I knew that one of my new priorities is to develop a $VXX (more liquidity, better spreads, similar horrendous performance) put option trading strategy. I was having a tough time finding individual stocks to buy, so I just decided to buy a small put position in the $VXX weeklies, going for the 30.5’s(which was the nearest ITM strike), getting in at 0.78…this was around 2:30. By the close the bid had appreciated to nearly 1.20.
Everyone always talks about how “retarded” these instruments are…and that’s no joke. Trading these on the long side is really idiotic (I can speak from personal experience), but if you were to flip that $UVXY chart upside down, you would have the greatest momentum play in the history of the stock exchange.
Like I had mentioned earlier, a new goal of mine is to try and exploit (and profit from) this horseshit. More to come.
Right now, my motives behind desiring a pullback in stocks are twofold.
First, my well documented foray into $QQQ puts has me more agitated than normal.
I ask myself if the grief is worth it…but there are times when you have to have some fucking conviction and go for it…and that’s what I’m doing. I calculated the risk I was willing to take on, I was too soon to the party and maxed out my buying prematurely.
This position has become ‘prohibitively large’ and, even though today was, IMO, the sweetest of the sweet spot, I felt it would be fairly irresponsible to add to this position.
In retrospect, I made a mistake in not taking into account the 200 day moving average. traderstewiementioned it’s presence this morning and, I was like: “holy shit, this looks clear as day”. So for the rest of the day, I just kept an eye on this level, and will continue to do so. The longer we drift sideways, the less conviction I will have.
I have a developing theory about this “sugarplum fairy” rally, but I’m going to keep it to myself for the time being…I have enough of my dick swinging in the breeze, I see no need to throw additional tinder on the fire.
Second: there are very few attractive long setups offering quality entry points. For the most part, shit-ass stocks have led the parade upward…and I’m not really sure that’s a good thing.
Nevertheless, there are a number of stocks that possess strong fundamentals and have also pulled back anywhere from 10-40% from 52-week highs. I feel that we are in desperate need of a pullback in the market to provide some higher probability entry points.
I hate to see large-bodied candles at the bottom of formations. I like calm indecision, I like support at meaningful points. An 800 point drop, followed by a 500 point rally…in 3 weeks…is not what I consider “calm indecision”.
Now, if/when the pullback comes, I’m interested in several areas on the $SPY. First is the gap around 139.5-6, then 138, then the most recent lows under 135.
I’m going to look to be an aggressive buyer of both stocks for longer-term swing trades as well as index ETF call options.
I want to talk now about the stocks that I’m going to consider for those longer-term trades. I mentioned in a post the other day, how I use a screen in The PPT to provide a starting point. From that post:
I use The PPT for my data collection here, screening for price behavior and a few fundamental data points (quarterly rev growth > 5%, ROE > 5% [I would prefer more on both, but I use these numbers as a baseline] and a “fundamental score” > 3.5). My screening criteria includes stocks that are up >20% in a year, are between +5% and -5% for the week, and are -5% for the month. Throw in a minimum market cap (100M), mix in a minimum average daily volume (100k)
Once I have these results, my goal is to visually screen out stocks that I would consider to be in a more ‘perilous’ state.
I accomplish this through the use of a weekly chart adorned with simple moving averages…I use a 4-week, a 13-week and a 26-week. Based on their orientation, I’m able to remove stocks that, on a longer-term time frame, are underperforming.
Now, trading stocks that are down on their luck may be your thing, but when I’m going long, I have historically had much greater success trading stocks that are in a well defined uptrend.
How do I define “uptrend” you query?
It’s pretty simple really, I want the 4 and 13 week (monthly and quarterly) averages to be above the 26 week (bi-yearly). (The orientation of the 4 & 13 aren’t as important, but I’m more likely to find a pattern that I like when the 4 has dipped under the 13). I also want to see a positive slope on the 26 week.
In this process, I don’t care about closing prices…I’m merely whittling away stocks that are going to waste my time. Here is an example of a stock that would make it to the “money round” (click on the table to enlarge):
Using this strategy, I want to build a list of stocks before the market comes in a bit. (If) When that happens I want to be prepared to strike.
Please pardon my tenor as this brief post is intended to achieve catharsis far more than educate.
How silly of me to think that I could try to prognosticate what is going to happen on the stock exchange and make a reasonable gamble based on experience. I say to myself: “come on dumbfuck, markets get sliced to the tune of 15%, then immediately rocket higher in a “V” shape all the time…as if the data and sentiment that sent us lower is magically irrelevant”.
Yes, my disbelief is primarily harbored in the fact that I’m caught going the wrong way in this torrent…I’m VERY close to being squeezed. The reward for hanging in is potentially tremendous, the risk is steadily mounting…and it is starting to become painful.
Early on I was surprised and slightly puzzled with how calm I was in relation to my position size (this is highly abnormal…as I trend toward dangerous compulsion when I put on a large trade). Hell, I even went to lunch today and completely forgot about it. I’m still not sure if this serenity can be attributed to complacency or an innate sense of patience.
As the day wore on, the losses mounted…and I started to become far more agitated with the nature of the market. In hindsight, there was an undeniably bullish momentum from about 11:30 EST onward. As this became more apparent, my confidence definitely started to deteriorate.
(Here is the part where I mildly plead to the Stock Market Gods)
I’m not looking for black smoke and shards of metal…just a “garden variety” retracement will do. I assure you that this mentality of wanting lower stock prices is not one that I heartily embrace…I’m an optimist by nature…I’m just looking to trade patterns that I’m familiar with. Many thanks.
Nevertheless, I have yet to liquidate a single contract. Barring a large rally on Tuesday, I’ll be making a decision about (at least) a portion of this position by the end of trading on Wednesday.
Honestly, I was caught off guard by the tremendous strength in stocks on Friday. With a half day, I should have known better. If stocks could catch a bid, this was a perfect opportunity to inflate (or deflate) prices as there were likely limited participants on either side of the trade to contest a move. I expected that kind of action to happen on Tuesday with Wednesday and Friday being more of the indecision type…alas, things usually don’t work as planned, so I’m forced to make adjustments.
What is clear is that the market has come an awfully long way since the depths and doldrums of a mere 7 (SEVEN) trading days ago, when it looked like we were going to spiral off the cliff to much lower equity prices.
Things were clearly oversold November 15 & 16, and the DOW has responded by rallying over 500 points…in 5 days…let that sink in for a minute.
We read all the time about “healthy price action” in stocks. I challenge anyone out there to dispute my notion that a 500 point rally (in 5 days) from deeply oversold conditions, is ‘unhealthy’ price action in stocks.
At this juncture, things are clearly getting overbought (if not already overbought), so upside from here, in the near term, is extremely limited. This move went further than I expected, but I have strong conviction that we are going lower to test the lows from 11/15-16.
To show conviction in this thesis, I have been accumulating puts on the $QQQ December 7th 62 contract…starting Wednesday afternoon, buying up bunches every hour. I now have a ridiculously large position…and if things shape up the way I’m hoping today, I may look to add many more contracts before 4:00 PM EST Monday.
What I was expecting was the short holiday week would add confusion to my analysis. That happened, but I haven’t let that deter me from my confidence that we are going lower.
As always, protecting against loss is paramount (should I lose, my losses are going to be larger than normal with this trade due to the size), so I will be keeping a very close eye on the indexes to see how we digest this most recent move. If we blast off higher, I will admit defeat and get out. If we trend sideways for more than 2 days, I will get VERY leery and start heading for the exit. If things go according to plan, I’m looking for a move to at least 137.5-138 on the $SPY.
I hate when someone tells me “I told you so”, but I’m going to break form here and preempt the coming decline in stock prices by advising some profit taking/loss mitigation on long positions in the coming days. As I said earlier today, I think we are setting up for a swift and painful move back to the lows from last week (AND MORE). Don’t get caught in the funnel, else find yourself washed out the other end around $SPX 1320.
I have a few ‘legacy’ longs that I’m holding onto ($RGR, $HOV, $LCC Jan 12.5 calls and LOOOOONG dated $VHC 50 calls), but other than that, I’m about 70% cash ready to deploy with great fervor in the next couple of days.
My focus is going to be on accumulating a prohibitively large position in $QQQ 62 puts (expiration date to be determined).
I wouldn’t be surprised if we grind higher into the 1400-1410 range through Friday, but as I stated yesterday the short holiday week is throwing a wrench into my analysis, so I’m not sure what to expect.
Often times I’m trying to hit singles and doubles and keep my losses small. Here, I’m stepping to the plate with my eye on a juicy hanging slider, looking to swing free-and-easy and watch it sail over the fence in left center.
Day 1 of this current bounce in the market could not have gone any better. Seriously, yesterday I stated: “Specifically what I am looking for is a sharp 1-3 day move to the upside with a couple of 1+% days with 80%+ breadth.” Right out of the gate we get a 2% day with 86% breadth. For the rest of the week, I’m looking for another push higher (on $SPY) into the area between 139.5 and 141. I would prefer that upward thrust happens today with some “consolidation” happening in the mid 140’s.
Check out this artists rendering of what I’m envisioning:
I know it’s going to be tough, but I need you to reserve your jealousy regarding my elite MS Paint skills. It’s a gift…often more of a curse than a blessing, but you just have to deal with the hand you are dealt.
Speaking of gambling, I believe that the market is dealing us a very favorable hand, and I plan to place my bets here on this blog for the entire world to see. If things continue to play out as I envision, I will be going short…heavily…in the coming days with a trade where risk is easily managed and the reward could be significant.
My thesis is based on thinking that the market will not sharply sink to multi-month lows then immediately snap back to behave “healthily”. Based on the information we currently have at our disposal, I believe that we will stall around the 140-141 area then sink to retest the lows of last week.
Keep in mind that the longer the “stall” lasts, the more skeptical I will become of my thesis.
These trades have a very small window of opportunity to try and maximize profits. Just look at this current rally. The time to buy was Friday, not Monday. The goal is to already be in the trade to catch the gap. Unless you are trying to scrape out a few points, by the time it (the gap) happens, the big move is likely already complete.
Coincidentally (and on a more positive note, as compared to the overall bearish tone of this post), I believe that a move back to the recent lows would constitute a situation where we are given better setups from a longer-term perspective. There is too much “v-shaped” shit out there to make me comfortable buying into longer term swing trade setups right now. Stay tuned…the fun is just getting started.
After a brief (and unannounced) hiatus, I have returned to toil in the iBC Siberian salt mines, aka the “Blogger Network”. Though the (tangible) benefits found in these parts are meager, those same elements also allow for a relatively nice paternity leave package. With that in mind, I have been able to spend a lot of quality time with my family following the birth of my daughter on October 1st. As anyone who has been in this particular situation can attest, having two children under the age of two does put a premium on time, therefore I have had to sacrifice significant “stock market research time”. Coming home to a wife with a head rotating 180 degrees and shooting laser beams (mixed with tears) from her eyes certainly puts things into perspective for me. Now the time has come to fire up this blog again.
How about this stock market, eh *cue applause/laughs from audience* (chuckling)? I am currently exhibiting a significant amount of restraint seeing that I love to try and get in for the short-term pop that is long overdue. We just kept getting days that open green, only to fade (sometimes in dramatic fashion). That made it quite difficult to figure out where/when to place some orders. In order to prevent my account from withstanding further degradation, I needed to restrain myself from trying to catch the knife…because I believe that a much easier trade is lurking on the horizon.
(Aside: that’s what trading without writing about it will get me. Seriously, there is such a marked improvement in my performance when I am tasked with being accountable through writing. Writing a blog about one’s trading does seem like an exercise in ridiculousness, but I can say without question, that my intensity, focus and quality of trading improves dramatically when I’m sitting here banging on this keyboard.)
As of this writing, the market does appear to have found some support, and we could be looking at a ferocious rally into Government Appreciation Day. There are two different strategies that I am looking to implement.
First, let’s assume that this rally does materialize in earnest. I am going to be observing to see how strong and exhaustive the move is. Specifically what I am looking for is a sharp 1-3 day move to the upside with a couple of 1+% days with 80%+ breadth.
We have already witnessed an expansion of volatility to the downside since mid-October, with things really picking up steam in early November. Remember that volatility is usually adds an overall bearish tenor to the market, but small, violent rallies are often a part of the larger bearish/volatility picture.
Anyway, I would feel VERY strongly about opening some short positions on market proxy ETFs (via puts) if we were to see a quick snap-back rally on the $SPY to the area between 139.25 and 140.5. I’m looking for an exhaustive run, followed by a day or two of indecision (typically represented via charts in candles with long “wicks” and small “bodies”).
There is little doubt that the holiday week is going to complicate my analysis, as Wednesday and Friday are going to be very light trading days, so I need to be leery about reading anything into the results from those days.
Since 2010, my best trading has come in these kind of volatile, exhaustive markets…with late August/September 2011 basically making my entire year. That is what I’m looking for. I certainly would not consider myself a “bear-shitter”; nevertheless I do welcome the chaos.
The second strategy I look to employ is one with a longer-term window of opportunity. Multi-week pullbacks allow for a number of leading and fundamentally sound companies to retreat to a more favorable buy area (for me at least). While the previously described volatile market strategy looks to get in and out of trades in less than a week, this second strategy requires more time and patience to work.
I use The PPT for my data collection here, screening for price behavior and a few fundamental data points (quarterly rev growth > 5%, ROE > 5% [I would prefer more on both, but I use these numbers as a baseline] and a “fundamental score” > 3.5). My screening criteria includes stocks that are up >20% in a year, are between +5% and -5% for the week, and are -5% for the month. Throw in a minimum market cap (100M), mix in a minimum average daily volume (100k) and you have a recipe for some quality stocks that are entering a “ripe” area for some plucking.
This post is getting lengthy, so I’m going to cut it off here. It’s good to be back…more to come.
If you have been following the past few days, you no doubt know that I have been keeping a close eye on the Bollinger Band compression around $SPY. Well, as of yesterday that compression has concluded as price (and the bands) has started to expand, big-time. While all signs point to this as being a breakout to new highs, I’m still going to err on the side of caution and see how the market reacts to this before making any more purchases.
Since it’s Friday, and we are on the cusp of the new NFL season, I figured that I would change up the tenor of this blog for a day and “break down some tape” on the games this Sunday/Monday. Of course, the lines on these games are purely for entertainment purposes as no one would ever gamble on the NFL outside of Nevada. I’m going to post the matchup, line, some organic analysis and then make my pick. For what it’s worth, I would have taken the Giants on Wednesday, so I’m already (0-1).
Indianapolis @ Chicago (-10)
I love Andrew Luck. Living on the west coast for 7 years, I was able to watch a number of his games and always really enjoyed his quarterbacking/leadership abilities. That said, I don’t think that Indy will be able to run the ball and Chicago’s D-Line is going to make life miserable for him. Jay Cutler (as much as I think he’s a smug prick) finally has a real wide receiver (not a kick returner) to throw to and Matt Forte is probably salty about someone or something in the Bears front office.
Chicago (-10)
Philadelphia (-9) @ Cleveland
Cleveland is a fucking joke. No, seriously. Mike Holmgren aka “The Football Genius” has really put together a superb squad up there on the lake, no? Their “rookie” QB is pushing 30. I do like Trent Richardson, but running backs are a dime a dozen these days. Phil Taylor swallows up blockers, but he is hurt. Joe Haden is a superb CB, but he’s not going to do them much good sitting out with a suspension. Everyone loved the Eagles last year, and they stunk, but they still almost won that division with an absolutely putrid season. This year, the Giants are the darlings of the NFC (and rightfully so) and not as many people are talking about the Eagles. If they can get their linebacking situation under control, they could be one of the best teams in the league, as they have the pass rush and secondary. I think they stomp the pathetic Browns.
Philadelphia (-9)
Buffalo @ NY Jets (-3)
Bills fan, do you really think that Ryan Fitzpatrick is the answer? I mean, obviously the front office and coach do, but…meh. Their defense is good…even if they had to break the bank for Mario Williams, they needed to do something, right? They are like the equivalent of an NBA team that’s just bad enough to miss the playoffs, so they are stuck drafting right at the end of the lottery and keep getting average players. Though in the NFL, that shouldn’t be a problem, yet the Bills have managed over a decade of mediocrity. As for the J-E-T-S…oh the Jets. Their defense will be good…and I love the addition of Leron Landry, but the ultimate objective of football is to score more points than the opposition. Their offense is pathetic, awful, horrendous and putrid. So Santonio Holmes wanted to leave Pittsburgh because they didn’t throw enough? Hahahahaha, thanks for the incredible catch in SB XVIII, but now you can go fuck yourself in that joke of an offense ‘Toine.
Buffalo (+3)
Washington @ New Orleans (-7.5)
I’m intrigued by Robert Griffin the 3rd…that’s where my interest in the Redskins stops. Daniel Snyder and Jerry Jones are in a cold war style arms race to see who can waste more money on shit other than, you know, WINNING GAMES. The Redskins should matter, but they are a pathetic bunch…plus they just gave up all kinds of shit to the Rams to draft Griffin the 3rd…hope he pans out for you…otherwise, you’re fucked. I think New Orleans will be just fine without Sean Payton…seriously, I think coaches are often very overrated based on the players they coach (see Holmgren, Mike and Siefert, George). What I’m saying here is: they still have Drew Brees and a stable of people to catch his passes. Their defense will be fine under Spagnuolo even without Vilma.
New Orleans (-7.5)
New England (-5.5) @ Tennessee
Have you taken a look at New England’s schedule? Pencil them in for a first round bye and at least 1 home playoff game. Fuck me sideways. I hate Tom Brady….but he is just so damn good…now he has Brandon “velcro hands” Lloyd to throw to? Ugh. Won’t this guy ever get old and frail for fuck’s sake? He’ll be 45 and still out there patting the ball 37 times in the pocket, slinging it around to one of his 7 TE’s, screaming at his O-line when he gets knocked to the ground once. Hate him, but I respect the hell out of him and Belichick. As for Tennessee, they are starting Jake Locker. I watched some Jake Locker when he was at Washington…and wondered what all of the hype was about him? He’s got a rocket for an arm, and decent legs, but always made way too many boneheaded or inaccurate throws. Maybe their game plan will be “turn and hand it to Chris Johnson 30 times”…in which case, I think they can hang. New England will win, but I’m taking the points.
Tennessee (+5.5)
Jacksonville @ Minnesota (-3.5)
Who cares? Seriously, has there be a less intriguing game in the history of the NFL? I have written way too much on this already.
Minnesota (-3.5)
Miami @ Houston (-12)
New coach, new QB, new everything for “The Fish”…now they just need to go back to those mid 80’s Marino style blue-green jerseys…loved those things. I don’t know what to think about them…they traded Brandon Marshall (which may be addition by subtraction), so who is Tanneyhill going to throw to? Anthony Fasano? Houston is going to run away and hide in the AFC South…an absolutely pathetic division, if there ever was one. They can run it, they can throw it and their defense is top notch. They are certainly one of the elite teams in the league.Nevertheless I think 12 is too much as I think Miami will play inspired ball and keep it close.
Miami (+12)
Detroit (-7.5) @ St. Louis
I’m wondering if Detroit has remedied their running back situation, as last year they were peeling bodies off the scrap heap to just line up out there to humor opposing defenses. I’m not sure I like the odds of Matthew Stafford staying healthy for two straight seasons, but if so, the NFC North is going to be a dogfight with Detroit/Chicago/Green Bay. The Lions defensive line should be among the best in the league…and that should help to mask some of their awful secondary. The Rams are a work in progress (obviously). They almost made the playoffs in 2010 with a healthy Sam Bradford. Last year…well…sucked. I have always been a Jeff Fisher fan and I think they will get better in the coming years.
Detroit (-7.5)
Atlanta (-3) @ Kansas City
Matty Ice sure knows how to get it done when it matters most. Talk about grit. Talk about determination. Talk about never winning a playoff game. Whoops. Yo, Matt, this is your 5th year in the league…if you want people to take you seriously, you might want to win a playoff game. KC is going to fly under the radar. Romeo Crennel had them playing well at the end of last year…fuck his tenure with that pathetic joke of a franchise on the lake. Now they have a healthy Matt Cassell, Jamal Charles, Tony Moeaki and Eric Berry. Their defense is very underrated, with one of the best secondaries in the league.
Kansas City (+3)
San Francisco @ Green Bay (-5)
This game is the opposite of Jacksonville @ Minnesota. The Packers were the best team in the league last year but couldn’t stop the pass and ran into a buzz-saw. San Francisco had every chance in the world to beat the Giants, but just couldn’t get it done. This should be a great game.
Green Bay (-5)
Carolina (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay
These are two sleeper teams. If Carolina can stop ANYONE, they have a shot this year…their offense is really good. Tampa has a new coach and it will be interesting to see how that affects things. I don’t know enough about either of them to really comment more.
Carolina (-2.5)
Seattle (-2.5) @ Arizona
I love Russell Wilson, and I think Seattle’s defense might be one of the best in the league. I hated this team when I lived in Portland because I always seem to hate the “hometown” team when I move somewhere (see: Tampa early 2000’s). Now I’m very intrigued by them and think they could pose a real threat to San Francisco in the NFC West…those should be some great games. If there was ever a game to take the “under” (currently at 40.5), this would be it. I can see something like 17-6 Seattle. Poor Larry Fitzgerald, all that talent and stuck out there in the desert with Kevin Kolb (lol) or John Skelton (lmao) throwing him the ball. Can’t wait for New England to trade a 6th round pick in 2019 for him in an upcoming offseason.
Seattle (-2.5)
Pittsburgh @ Denver (-1.5)
I’ll be interested to see how the Pittsburgh offense comes together this year. They have a lot of playmakers at WR and RB (fantasy football dorks, you heard it here first: grab Chris Rainey while you still have a chance…trust me on this one) and a new OC (Todd Haley…ALL REJOICE IN THE “RETIREMENT” OF BRUCE “NO FULLBACK” ARIANS!!11!!!!). They are perilously thin at inside linebacker, so if Timmons or Foote go down…they are in a lot of trouble. As for Denver. Fuck Denver. Fuck Tim Tebow and his bullshit playoff game and his bullshit routine. I don’t care if he is gone, I want to see Pittsburgh stomp on them and “turn Peyton Manning’s head sideways”. He still scares the shit out of me and he has a bunch of tall receivers to throw to. They have that little guy Dumervil, who always gives the big tackles for Pittsburgh trouble. I have no idea which way this game is going to go, but I’m very fired up for it.
Pittsburgh (+1.5)
Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-6)
Six points? I wonder if the Ravens will give little Johnny Harbaugh another Gatorade bath if they win in Week 1 again this year? RIP Art Modell.
Cincinnati (+6)
San Diego @ Oakland (-1)
Which Phil Rivers is going to show up this year? I think I know which Carson Palmer will show: the same one who has been around since Kimo von Oelhoffen turned his knee inside out in 2006. Maybe now that everyone is talking about Denver instead of the Chargers, they will finally put together some wins to start the year…maybe not. They always seem to struggle in these late week 1 MNF games, so I’m going with the venerable Carson Palmer and the RAAAYYYDERS.
…was garbage, along with all other “diet” colas…but being a tabbed blogger here in the Louvre of financial blogging? Well, that would be pretty fucking awesome.
So, yeah, I’m announcing my candidacy.
You may have read my blog, you are probably are not following me on Twitter (just click on the link and click “follow”…honestly, what do you have to lose?), but if you are, you have a pretty good idea of my “style”.
I take pride in my ability to communicate through the written word. I will self-deprecate over self-promote or gloat…as I prefer to rip myself, than to shit on the efforts/ideas of others. Lets be honest, trying to extract coin from the stock exchange is hard enough. Writing about trying to extract coin from the market (along with being honest/transparent) is a daunting task…one not to be taken lightly.
As a steward to the greatest financial website ever known to man (and any other life forms) I have always brought my “A-game” and will continue to do my best to entertain, educate and enlighten.
In honour (sic) of the impending meltup, this morning I’m looking for stocks that are hovering near their 20 day SMA, and have greater than 15% of available shares sold short. After some analysis and deliberation, I will be watching the following stocks today to try and catch some squeeze action:
$KBH
$X
Options are my instrument of choice here. With $KBH, I’m eying the January 14 calls. $X, the January 21 calls. Both of these stocks offer well defined support levels, so any hint of weakness around those points, I’ll bail on them.
You can follow me on twitter, to see if/when I pull the trigger on these (in addition to being subjected to my limitless wit….).
The day started off so gloriously. I settle into my office chair at 7 AM and watch as the futures slowly fade. Then the precious metals all take a shit just after 8. The energy was palpable.
The market opens, and right away it’s pretty obvious that the early trend in stocks is downward. As I leisurely alt-tab between my real work and the stock market, prices, almost instantaneously, levitate to where they opened.
Beads of sweat form on my brow.
I likely release several curses under my breath.
Now I am completely distracted.
Fuck me.
FUCK ME.
I capitulate.
At 10:00 am, I was nearly break even. I close the trade ($QQQ puts) in the next half hour for a gut-wrenching loss.
Some lessons: I entered the trade too early. After yesterday I thought it looked like a really nice short setup…and in theory, it probably was. What we are seeing in this thin tape is that optimistic/threatening comments by our idiot elected officials can alter the course of the market VERY quickly.
Like I said, all indications were pointing toward short-term downward momentum at the open. The jump from the lows to ‘break-even’ (where the market opened) on the day took all of 20 minutes.
Even in defeat, I made the correct decision. The market strength was undeniable…for the second time this week, bulls took control and plowed higher. I was skeptical on Monday, but after a second time, I’m flexible and experienced enough to know when to step aside.
After a brief period of despondency (and a cheeseburger), I needed to find something to trade. After a big loss, the common reaction is to get it all back (AND MORE ) as soon as possible. Having fallen into this trap many times in the past, I knew that I needed to do the opposite and find a small, well thought out trade.
I ran a screen earlier in the day and $UVXY just happened to come up. Have you ever taken a look at the fucking weekly $UXVY chart? No? Well, here it is:Honestly…what the fuck is that shit?
After seeing this, I knew that one of my new priorities is to develop a $VXX (more liquidity, better spreads, similar horrendous performance) put option trading strategy. I was having a tough time finding individual stocks to buy, so I just decided to buy a small put position in the $VXX weeklies, going for the 30.5’s(which was the nearest ITM strike), getting in at 0.78…this was around 2:30. By the close the bid had appreciated to nearly 1.20.
Everyone always talks about how “retarded” these instruments are…and that’s no joke. Trading these on the long side is really idiotic (I can speak from personal experience), but if you were to flip that $UVXY chart upside down, you would have the greatest momentum play in the history of the stock exchange.
Like I had mentioned earlier, a new goal of mine is to try and exploit (and profit from) this horseshit. More to come.
Right now, my motives behind desiring a pullback in stocks are twofold.
First, my well documented foray into $QQQ puts has me more agitated than normal.
I ask myself if the grief is worth it…but there are times when you have to have some fucking conviction and go for it…and that’s what I’m doing. I calculated the risk I was willing to take on, I was too soon to the party and maxed out my buying prematurely.
This position has become ‘prohibitively large’ and, even though today was, IMO, the sweetest of the sweet spot, I felt it would be fairly irresponsible to add to this position.
In retrospect, I made a mistake in not taking into account the 200 day moving average. traderstewiementioned it’s presence this morning and, I was like: “holy shit, this looks clear as day”. So for the rest of the day, I just kept an eye on this level, and will continue to do so. The longer we drift sideways, the less conviction I will have.
I have a developing theory about this “sugarplum fairy” rally, but I’m going to keep it to myself for the time being…I have enough of my dick swinging in the breeze, I see no need to throw additional tinder on the fire.
Second: there are very few attractive long setups offering quality entry points. For the most part, shit-ass stocks have led the parade upward…and I’m not really sure that’s a good thing.
Nevertheless, there are a number of stocks that possess strong fundamentals and have also pulled back anywhere from 10-40% from 52-week highs. I feel that we are in desperate need of a pullback in the market to provide some higher probability entry points.
I hate to see large-bodied candles at the bottom of formations. I like calm indecision, I like support at meaningful points. An 800 point drop, followed by a 500 point rally…in 3 weeks…is not what I consider “calm indecision”.
Now, if/when the pullback comes, I’m interested in several areas on the $SPY. First is the gap around 139.5-6, then 138, then the most recent lows under 135.
I’m going to look to be an aggressive buyer of both stocks for longer-term swing trades as well as index ETF call options.
I want to talk now about the stocks that I’m going to consider for those longer-term trades. I mentioned in a post the other day, how I use a screen in The PPT to provide a starting point. From that post:
I use The PPT for my data collection here, screening for price behavior and a few fundamental data points (quarterly rev growth > 5%, ROE > 5% [I would prefer more on both, but I use these numbers as a baseline] and a “fundamental score” > 3.5). My screening criteria includes stocks that are up >20% in a year, are between +5% and -5% for the week, and are -5% for the month. Throw in a minimum market cap (100M), mix in a minimum average daily volume (100k)
Once I have these results, my goal is to visually screen out stocks that I would consider to be in a more ‘perilous’ state.
I accomplish this through the use of a weekly chart adorned with simple moving averages…I use a 4-week, a 13-week and a 26-week. Based on their orientation, I’m able to remove stocks that, on a longer-term time frame, are underperforming.
Now, trading stocks that are down on their luck may be your thing, but when I’m going long, I have historically had much greater success trading stocks that are in a well defined uptrend.
How do I define “uptrend” you query?
It’s pretty simple really, I want the 4 and 13 week (monthly and quarterly) averages to be above the 26 week (bi-yearly). (The orientation of the 4 & 13 aren’t as important, but I’m more likely to find a pattern that I like when the 4 has dipped under the 13). I also want to see a positive slope on the 26 week.
In this process, I don’t care about closing prices…I’m merely whittling away stocks that are going to waste my time. Here is an example of a stock that would make it to the “money round” (click on the table to enlarge):
Using this strategy, I want to build a list of stocks before the market comes in a bit. (If) When that happens I want to be prepared to strike.
Please pardon my tenor as this brief post is intended to achieve catharsis far more than educate.
How silly of me to think that I could try to prognosticate what is going to happen on the stock exchange and make a reasonable gamble based on experience. I say to myself: “come on dumbfuck, markets get sliced to the tune of 15%, then immediately rocket higher in a “V” shape all the time…as if the data and sentiment that sent us lower is magically irrelevant”.
Yes, my disbelief is primarily harbored in the fact that I’m caught going the wrong way in this torrent…I’m VERY close to being squeezed. The reward for hanging in is potentially tremendous, the risk is steadily mounting…and it is starting to become painful.
Early on I was surprised and slightly puzzled with how calm I was in relation to my position size (this is highly abnormal…as I trend toward dangerous compulsion when I put on a large trade). Hell, I even went to lunch today and completely forgot about it. I’m still not sure if this serenity can be attributed to complacency or an innate sense of patience.
As the day wore on, the losses mounted…and I started to become far more agitated with the nature of the market. In hindsight, there was an undeniably bullish momentum from about 11:30 EST onward. As this became more apparent, my confidence definitely started to deteriorate.
(Here is the part where I mildly plead to the Stock Market Gods)
I’m not looking for black smoke and shards of metal…just a “garden variety” retracement will do. I assure you that this mentality of wanting lower stock prices is not one that I heartily embrace…I’m an optimist by nature…I’m just looking to trade patterns that I’m familiar with. Many thanks.
Nevertheless, I have yet to liquidate a single contract. Barring a large rally on Tuesday, I’ll be making a decision about (at least) a portion of this position by the end of trading on Wednesday.
Honestly, I was caught off guard by the tremendous strength in stocks on Friday. With a half day, I should have known better. If stocks could catch a bid, this was a perfect opportunity to inflate (or deflate) prices as there were likely limited participants on either side of the trade to contest a move. I expected that kind of action to happen on Tuesday with Wednesday and Friday being more of the indecision type…alas, things usually don’t work as planned, so I’m forced to make adjustments.
What is clear is that the market has come an awfully long way since the depths and doldrums of a mere 7 (SEVEN) trading days ago, when it looked like we were going to spiral off the cliff to much lower equity prices.
Things were clearly oversold November 15 & 16, and the DOW has responded by rallying over 500 points…in 5 days…let that sink in for a minute.
We read all the time about “healthy price action” in stocks. I challenge anyone out there to dispute my notion that a 500 point rally (in 5 days) from deeply oversold conditions, is ‘unhealthy’ price action in stocks.
At this juncture, things are clearly getting overbought (if not already overbought), so upside from here, in the near term, is extremely limited. This move went further than I expected, but I have strong conviction that we are going lower to test the lows from 11/15-16.
To show conviction in this thesis, I have been accumulating puts on the $QQQ December 7th 62 contract…starting Wednesday afternoon, buying up bunches every hour. I now have a ridiculously large position…and if things shape up the way I’m hoping today, I may look to add many more contracts before 4:00 PM EST Monday.
What I was expecting was the short holiday week would add confusion to my analysis. That happened, but I haven’t let that deter me from my confidence that we are going lower.
As always, protecting against loss is paramount (should I lose, my losses are going to be larger than normal with this trade due to the size), so I will be keeping a very close eye on the indexes to see how we digest this most recent move. If we blast off higher, I will admit defeat and get out. If we trend sideways for more than 2 days, I will get VERY leery and start heading for the exit. If things go according to plan, I’m looking for a move to at least 137.5-138 on the $SPY.
I hate when someone tells me “I told you so”, but I’m going to break form here and preempt the coming decline in stock prices by advising some profit taking/loss mitigation on long positions in the coming days. As I said earlier today, I think we are setting up for a swift and painful move back to the lows from last week (AND MORE). Don’t get caught in the funnel, else find yourself washed out the other end around $SPX 1320.
I have a few ‘legacy’ longs that I’m holding onto ($RGR, $HOV, $LCC Jan 12.5 calls and LOOOOONG dated $VHC 50 calls), but other than that, I’m about 70% cash ready to deploy with great fervor in the next couple of days.
My focus is going to be on accumulating a prohibitively large position in $QQQ 62 puts (expiration date to be determined).
I wouldn’t be surprised if we grind higher into the 1400-1410 range through Friday, but as I stated yesterday the short holiday week is throwing a wrench into my analysis, so I’m not sure what to expect.
Often times I’m trying to hit singles and doubles and keep my losses small. Here, I’m stepping to the plate with my eye on a juicy hanging slider, looking to swing free-and-easy and watch it sail over the fence in left center.
Day 1 of this current bounce in the market could not have gone any better. Seriously, yesterday I stated: “Specifically what I am looking for is a sharp 1-3 day move to the upside with a couple of 1+% days with 80%+ breadth.” Right out of the gate we get a 2% day with 86% breadth. For the rest of the week, I’m looking for another push higher (on $SPY) into the area between 139.5 and 141. I would prefer that upward thrust happens today with some “consolidation” happening in the mid 140’s.
Check out this artists rendering of what I’m envisioning:
I know it’s going to be tough, but I need you to reserve your jealousy regarding my elite MS Paint skills. It’s a gift…often more of a curse than a blessing, but you just have to deal with the hand you are dealt.
Speaking of gambling, I believe that the market is dealing us a very favorable hand, and I plan to place my bets here on this blog for the entire world to see. If things continue to play out as I envision, I will be going short…heavily…in the coming days with a trade where risk is easily managed and the reward could be significant.
My thesis is based on thinking that the market will not sharply sink to multi-month lows then immediately snap back to behave “healthily”. Based on the information we currently have at our disposal, I believe that we will stall around the 140-141 area then sink to retest the lows of last week.
Keep in mind that the longer the “stall” lasts, the more skeptical I will become of my thesis.
These trades have a very small window of opportunity to try and maximize profits. Just look at this current rally. The time to buy was Friday, not Monday. The goal is to already be in the trade to catch the gap. Unless you are trying to scrape out a few points, by the time it (the gap) happens, the big move is likely already complete.
Coincidentally (and on a more positive note, as compared to the overall bearish tone of this post), I believe that a move back to the recent lows would constitute a situation where we are given better setups from a longer-term perspective. There is too much “v-shaped” shit out there to make me comfortable buying into longer term swing trade setups right now. Stay tuned…the fun is just getting started.
After a brief (and unannounced) hiatus, I have returned to toil in the iBC Siberian salt mines, aka the “Blogger Network”. Though the (tangible) benefits found in these parts are meager, those same elements also allow for a relatively nice paternity leave package. With that in mind, I have been able to spend a lot of quality time with my family following the birth of my daughter on October 1st. As anyone who has been in this particular situation can attest, having two children under the age of two does put a premium on time, therefore I have had to sacrifice significant “stock market research time”. Coming home to a wife with a head rotating 180 degrees and shooting laser beams (mixed with tears) from her eyes certainly puts things into perspective for me. Now the time has come to fire up this blog again.
How about this stock market, eh *cue applause/laughs from audience* (chuckling)? I am currently exhibiting a significant amount of restraint seeing that I love to try and get in for the short-term pop that is long overdue. We just kept getting days that open green, only to fade (sometimes in dramatic fashion). That made it quite difficult to figure out where/when to place some orders. In order to prevent my account from withstanding further degradation, I needed to restrain myself from trying to catch the knife…because I believe that a much easier trade is lurking on the horizon.
(Aside: that’s what trading without writing about it will get me. Seriously, there is such a marked improvement in my performance when I am tasked with being accountable through writing. Writing a blog about one’s trading does seem like an exercise in ridiculousness, but I can say without question, that my intensity, focus and quality of trading improves dramatically when I’m sitting here banging on this keyboard.)
As of this writing, the market does appear to have found some support, and we could be looking at a ferocious rally into Government Appreciation Day. There are two different strategies that I am looking to implement.
First, let’s assume that this rally does materialize in earnest. I am going to be observing to see how strong and exhaustive the move is. Specifically what I am looking for is a sharp 1-3 day move to the upside with a couple of 1+% days with 80%+ breadth.
We have already witnessed an expansion of volatility to the downside since mid-October, with things really picking up steam in early November. Remember that volatility is usually adds an overall bearish tenor to the market, but small, violent rallies are often a part of the larger bearish/volatility picture.
Anyway, I would feel VERY strongly about opening some short positions on market proxy ETFs (via puts) if we were to see a quick snap-back rally on the $SPY to the area between 139.25 and 140.5. I’m looking for an exhaustive run, followed by a day or two of indecision (typically represented via charts in candles with long “wicks” and small “bodies”).
There is little doubt that the holiday week is going to complicate my analysis, as Wednesday and Friday are going to be very light trading days, so I need to be leery about reading anything into the results from those days.
Since 2010, my best trading has come in these kind of volatile, exhaustive markets…with late August/September 2011 basically making my entire year. That is what I’m looking for. I certainly would not consider myself a “bear-shitter”; nevertheless I do welcome the chaos.
The second strategy I look to employ is one with a longer-term window of opportunity. Multi-week pullbacks allow for a number of leading and fundamentally sound companies to retreat to a more favorable buy area (for me at least). While the previously described volatile market strategy looks to get in and out of trades in less than a week, this second strategy requires more time and patience to work.
I use The PPT for my data collection here, screening for price behavior and a few fundamental data points (quarterly rev growth > 5%, ROE > 5% [I would prefer more on both, but I use these numbers as a baseline] and a “fundamental score” > 3.5). My screening criteria includes stocks that are up >20% in a year, are between +5% and -5% for the week, and are -5% for the month. Throw in a minimum market cap (100M), mix in a minimum average daily volume (100k) and you have a recipe for some quality stocks that are entering a “ripe” area for some plucking.
This post is getting lengthy, so I’m going to cut it off here. It’s good to be back…more to come.
If you have been following the past few days, you no doubt know that I have been keeping a close eye on the Bollinger Band compression around $SPY. Well, as of yesterday that compression has concluded as price (and the bands) has started to expand, big-time. While all signs point to this as being a breakout to new highs, I’m still going to err on the side of caution and see how the market reacts to this before making any more purchases.
Since it’s Friday, and we are on the cusp of the new NFL season, I figured that I would change up the tenor of this blog for a day and “break down some tape” on the games this Sunday/Monday. Of course, the lines on these games are purely for entertainment purposes as no one would ever gamble on the NFL outside of Nevada. I’m going to post the matchup, line, some organic analysis and then make my pick. For what it’s worth, I would have taken the Giants on Wednesday, so I’m already (0-1).
Indianapolis @ Chicago (-10)
I love Andrew Luck. Living on the west coast for 7 years, I was able to watch a number of his games and always really enjoyed his quarterbacking/leadership abilities. That said, I don’t think that Indy will be able to run the ball and Chicago’s D-Line is going to make life miserable for him. Jay Cutler (as much as I think he’s a smug prick) finally has a real wide receiver (not a kick returner) to throw to and Matt Forte is probably salty about someone or something in the Bears front office.
Chicago (-10)
Philadelphia (-9) @ Cleveland
Cleveland is a fucking joke. No, seriously. Mike Holmgren aka “The Football Genius” has really put together a superb squad up there on the lake, no? Their “rookie” QB is pushing 30. I do like Trent Richardson, but running backs are a dime a dozen these days. Phil Taylor swallows up blockers, but he is hurt. Joe Haden is a superb CB, but he’s not going to do them much good sitting out with a suspension. Everyone loved the Eagles last year, and they stunk, but they still almost won that division with an absolutely putrid season. This year, the Giants are the darlings of the NFC (and rightfully so) and not as many people are talking about the Eagles. If they can get their linebacking situation under control, they could be one of the best teams in the league, as they have the pass rush and secondary. I think they stomp the pathetic Browns.
Philadelphia (-9)
Buffalo @ NY Jets (-3)
Bills fan, do you really think that Ryan Fitzpatrick is the answer? I mean, obviously the front office and coach do, but…meh. Their defense is good…even if they had to break the bank for Mario Williams, they needed to do something, right? They are like the equivalent of an NBA team that’s just bad enough to miss the playoffs, so they are stuck drafting right at the end of the lottery and keep getting average players. Though in the NFL, that shouldn’t be a problem, yet the Bills have managed over a decade of mediocrity. As for the J-E-T-S…oh the Jets. Their defense will be good…and I love the addition of Leron Landry, but the ultimate objective of football is to score more points than the opposition. Their offense is pathetic, awful, horrendous and putrid. So Santonio Holmes wanted to leave Pittsburgh because they didn’t throw enough? Hahahahaha, thanks for the incredible catch in SB XVIII, but now you can go fuck yourself in that joke of an offense ‘Toine.
Buffalo (+3)
Washington @ New Orleans (-7.5)
I’m intrigued by Robert Griffin the 3rd…that’s where my interest in the Redskins stops. Daniel Snyder and Jerry Jones are in a cold war style arms race to see who can waste more money on shit other than, you know, WINNING GAMES. The Redskins should matter, but they are a pathetic bunch…plus they just gave up all kinds of shit to the Rams to draft Griffin the 3rd…hope he pans out for you…otherwise, you’re fucked. I think New Orleans will be just fine without Sean Payton…seriously, I think coaches are often very overrated based on the players they coach (see Holmgren, Mike and Siefert, George). What I’m saying here is: they still have Drew Brees and a stable of people to catch his passes. Their defense will be fine under Spagnuolo even without Vilma.
New Orleans (-7.5)
New England (-5.5) @ Tennessee
Have you taken a look at New England’s schedule? Pencil them in for a first round bye and at least 1 home playoff game. Fuck me sideways. I hate Tom Brady….but he is just so damn good…now he has Brandon “velcro hands” Lloyd to throw to? Ugh. Won’t this guy ever get old and frail for fuck’s sake? He’ll be 45 and still out there patting the ball 37 times in the pocket, slinging it around to one of his 7 TE’s, screaming at his O-line when he gets knocked to the ground once. Hate him, but I respect the hell out of him and Belichick. As for Tennessee, they are starting Jake Locker. I watched some Jake Locker when he was at Washington…and wondered what all of the hype was about him? He’s got a rocket for an arm, and decent legs, but always made way too many boneheaded or inaccurate throws. Maybe their game plan will be “turn and hand it to Chris Johnson 30 times”…in which case, I think they can hang. New England will win, but I’m taking the points.
Tennessee (+5.5)
Jacksonville @ Minnesota (-3.5)
Who cares? Seriously, has there be a less intriguing game in the history of the NFL? I have written way too much on this already.
Minnesota (-3.5)
Miami @ Houston (-12)
New coach, new QB, new everything for “The Fish”…now they just need to go back to those mid 80’s Marino style blue-green jerseys…loved those things. I don’t know what to think about them…they traded Brandon Marshall (which may be addition by subtraction), so who is Tanneyhill going to throw to? Anthony Fasano? Houston is going to run away and hide in the AFC South…an absolutely pathetic division, if there ever was one. They can run it, they can throw it and their defense is top notch. They are certainly one of the elite teams in the league.Nevertheless I think 12 is too much as I think Miami will play inspired ball and keep it close.
Miami (+12)
Detroit (-7.5) @ St. Louis
I’m wondering if Detroit has remedied their running back situation, as last year they were peeling bodies off the scrap heap to just line up out there to humor opposing defenses. I’m not sure I like the odds of Matthew Stafford staying healthy for two straight seasons, but if so, the NFC North is going to be a dogfight with Detroit/Chicago/Green Bay. The Lions defensive line should be among the best in the league…and that should help to mask some of their awful secondary. The Rams are a work in progress (obviously). They almost made the playoffs in 2010 with a healthy Sam Bradford. Last year…well…sucked. I have always been a Jeff Fisher fan and I think they will get better in the coming years.
Detroit (-7.5)
Atlanta (-3) @ Kansas City
Matty Ice sure knows how to get it done when it matters most. Talk about grit. Talk about determination. Talk about never winning a playoff game. Whoops. Yo, Matt, this is your 5th year in the league…if you want people to take you seriously, you might want to win a playoff game. KC is going to fly under the radar. Romeo Crennel had them playing well at the end of last year…fuck his tenure with that pathetic joke of a franchise on the lake. Now they have a healthy Matt Cassell, Jamal Charles, Tony Moeaki and Eric Berry. Their defense is very underrated, with one of the best secondaries in the league.
Kansas City (+3)
San Francisco @ Green Bay (-5)
This game is the opposite of Jacksonville @ Minnesota. The Packers were the best team in the league last year but couldn’t stop the pass and ran into a buzz-saw. San Francisco had every chance in the world to beat the Giants, but just couldn’t get it done. This should be a great game.
Green Bay (-5)
Carolina (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay
These are two sleeper teams. If Carolina can stop ANYONE, they have a shot this year…their offense is really good. Tampa has a new coach and it will be interesting to see how that affects things. I don’t know enough about either of them to really comment more.
Carolina (-2.5)
Seattle (-2.5) @ Arizona
I love Russell Wilson, and I think Seattle’s defense might be one of the best in the league. I hated this team when I lived in Portland because I always seem to hate the “hometown” team when I move somewhere (see: Tampa early 2000’s). Now I’m very intrigued by them and think they could pose a real threat to San Francisco in the NFC West…those should be some great games. If there was ever a game to take the “under” (currently at 40.5), this would be it. I can see something like 17-6 Seattle. Poor Larry Fitzgerald, all that talent and stuck out there in the desert with Kevin Kolb (lol) or John Skelton (lmao) throwing him the ball. Can’t wait for New England to trade a 6th round pick in 2019 for him in an upcoming offseason.
Seattle (-2.5)
Pittsburgh @ Denver (-1.5)
I’ll be interested to see how the Pittsburgh offense comes together this year. They have a lot of playmakers at WR and RB (fantasy football dorks, you heard it here first: grab Chris Rainey while you still have a chance…trust me on this one) and a new OC (Todd Haley…ALL REJOICE IN THE “RETIREMENT” OF BRUCE “NO FULLBACK” ARIANS!!11!!!!). They are perilously thin at inside linebacker, so if Timmons or Foote go down…they are in a lot of trouble. As for Denver. Fuck Denver. Fuck Tim Tebow and his bullshit playoff game and his bullshit routine. I don’t care if he is gone, I want to see Pittsburgh stomp on them and “turn Peyton Manning’s head sideways”. He still scares the shit out of me and he has a bunch of tall receivers to throw to. They have that little guy Dumervil, who always gives the big tackles for Pittsburgh trouble. I have no idea which way this game is going to go, but I’m very fired up for it.
Pittsburgh (+1.5)
Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-6)
Six points? I wonder if the Ravens will give little Johnny Harbaugh another Gatorade bath if they win in Week 1 again this year? RIP Art Modell.
Cincinnati (+6)
San Diego @ Oakland (-1)
Which Phil Rivers is going to show up this year? I think I know which Carson Palmer will show: the same one who has been around since Kimo von Oelhoffen turned his knee inside out in 2006. Maybe now that everyone is talking about Denver instead of the Chargers, they will finally put together some wins to start the year…maybe not. They always seem to struggle in these late week 1 MNF games, so I’m going with the venerable Carson Palmer and the RAAAYYYDERS.
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