If you have been following the past few days, you no doubt know that I have been keeping a close eye on the Bollinger Band compression around $SPY. Well, as of yesterday that compression has concluded as price (and the bands) has started to expand, big-time. While all signs point to this as being a breakout to new highs, I’m still going to err on the side of caution and see how the market reacts to this before making any more purchases.
Since it’s Friday, and we are on the cusp of the new NFL season, I figured that I would change up the tenor of this blog for a day and “break down some tape” on the games this Sunday/Monday. Of course, the lines on these games are purely for entertainment purposes as no one would ever gamble on the NFL outside of Nevada. I’m going to post the matchup, line, some organic analysis and then make my pick. For what it’s worth, I would have taken the Giants on Wednesday, so I’m already (0-1).
Indianapolis @ Chicago (-10)
I love Andrew Luck. Living on the west coast for 7 years, I was able to watch a number of his games and always really enjoyed his quarterbacking/leadership abilities. That said, I don’t think that Indy will be able to run the ball and Chicago’s D-Line is going to make life miserable for him. Jay Cutler (as much as I think he’s a smug prick) finally has a real wide receiver (not a kick returner) to throw to and Matt Forte is probably salty about someone or something in the Bears front office.
Philadelphia (-9) @ Cleveland
Cleveland is a fucking joke. No, seriously. Mike Holmgren aka “The Football Genius” has really put together a superb squad up there on the lake, no? Their “rookie” QB is pushing 30. I do like Trent Richardson, but running backs are a dime a dozen these days. Phil Taylor swallows up blockers, but he is hurt. Joe Haden is a superb CB, but he’s not going to do them much good sitting out with a suspension. Everyone loved the Eagles last year, and they stunk, but they still almost won that division with an absolutely putrid season. This year, the Giants are the darlings of the NFC (and rightfully so) and not as many people are talking about the Eagles. If they can get their linebacking situation under control, they could be one of the best teams in the league, as they have the pass rush and secondary. I think they stomp the pathetic Browns.
Buffalo @ NY Jets (-3)
Bills fan, do you really think that Ryan Fitzpatrick is the answer? I mean, obviously the front office and coach do, but…meh. Their defense is good…even if they had to break the bank for Mario Williams, they needed to do something, right? They are like the equivalent of an NBA team that’s just bad enough to miss the playoffs, so they are stuck drafting right at the end of the lottery and keep getting average players. Though in the NFL, that shouldn’t be a problem, yet the Bills have managed over a decade of mediocrity. As for the J-E-T-S…oh the Jets. Their defense will be good…and I love the addition of Leron Landry, but the ultimate objective of football is to score more points than the opposition. Their offense is pathetic, awful, horrendous and putrid. So Santonio Holmes wanted to leave Pittsburgh because they didn’t throw enough? Hahahahaha, thanks for the incredible catch in SB XVIII, but now you can go fuck yourself in that joke of an offense ‘Toine.
Washington @ New Orleans (-7.5)
I’m intrigued by Robert Griffin the 3rd…that’s where my interest in the Redskins stops. Daniel Snyder and Jerry Jones are in a cold war style arms race to see who can waste more money on shit other than, you know, WINNING GAMES. The Redskins should matter, but they are a pathetic bunch…plus they just gave up all kinds of shit to the Rams to draft Griffin the 3rd…hope he pans out for you…otherwise, you’re fucked. I think New Orleans will be just fine without Sean Payton…seriously, I think coaches are often very overrated based on the players they coach (see Holmgren, Mike and Siefert, George). What I’m saying here is: they still have Drew Brees and a stable of people to catch his passes. Their defense will be fine under Spagnuolo even without Vilma.
New Orleans (-7.5)
New England (-5.5) @ Tennessee
Have you taken a look at New England’s schedule? Pencil them in for a first round bye and at least 1 home playoff game. Fuck me sideways. I hate Tom Brady….but he is just so damn good…now he has Brandon “velcro hands” Lloyd to throw to? Ugh. Won’t this guy ever get old and frail for fuck’s sake? He’ll be 45 and still out there patting the ball 37 times in the pocket, slinging it around to one of his 7 TE’s, screaming at his O-line when he gets knocked to the ground once. Hate him, but I respect the hell out of him and Belichick. As for Tennessee, they are starting Jake Locker. I watched some Jake Locker when he was at Washington…and wondered what all of the hype was about him? He’s got a rocket for an arm, and decent legs, but always made way too many boneheaded or inaccurate throws. Maybe their game plan will be “turn and hand it to Chris Johnson 30 times”…in which case, I think they can hang. New England will win, but I’m taking the points.
Jacksonville @ Minnesota (-3.5)
Who cares? Seriously, has there be a less intriguing game in the history of the NFL? I have written way too much on this already.
Miami @ Houston (-12)
New coach, new QB, new everything for “The Fish”…now they just need to go back to those mid 80′s Marino style blue-green jerseys…loved those things. I don’t know what to think about them…they traded Brandon Marshall (which may be addition by subtraction), so who is Tanneyhill going to throw to? Anthony Fasano? Houston is going to run away and hide in the AFC South…an absolutely pathetic division, if there ever was one. They can run it, they can throw it and their defense is top notch. They are certainly one of the elite teams in the league. Nevertheless I think 12 is too much as I think Miami will play inspired ball and keep it close.
Detroit (-7.5) @ St. Louis
I’m wondering if Detroit has remedied their running back situation, as last year they were peeling bodies off the scrap heap to just line up out there to humor opposing defenses. I’m not sure I like the odds of Matthew Stafford staying healthy for two straight seasons, but if so, the NFC North is going to be a dogfight with Detroit/Chicago/Green Bay. The Lions defensive line should be among the best in the league…and that should help to mask some of their awful secondary. The Rams are a work in progress (obviously). They almost made the playoffs in 2010 with a healthy Sam Bradford. Last year…well…sucked. I have always been a Jeff Fisher fan and I think they will get better in the coming years.
Atlanta (-3) @ Kansas City
Matty Ice sure knows how to get it done when it matters most. Talk about grit. Talk about determination. Talk about never winning a playoff game. Whoops. Yo, Matt, this is your 5th year in the league…if you want people to take you seriously, you might want to win a playoff game. KC is going to fly under the radar. Romeo Crennel had them playing well at the end of last year…fuck his tenure with that pathetic joke of a franchise on the lake. Now they have a healthy Matt Cassell, Jamal Charles, Tony Moeaki and Eric Berry. Their defense is very underrated, with one of the best secondaries in the league.
Kansas City (+3)
San Francisco @ Green Bay (-5)
This game is the opposite of Jacksonville @ Minnesota. The Packers were the best team in the league last year but couldn’t stop the pass and ran into a buzz-saw. San Francisco had every chance in the world to beat the Giants, but just couldn’t get it done. This should be a great game.
Green Bay (-5)
Carolina (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay
These are two sleeper teams. If Carolina can stop ANYONE, they have a shot this year…their offense is really good. Tampa has a new coach and it will be interesting to see how that affects things. I don’t know enough about either of them to really comment more.
Seattle (-2.5) @ Arizona
I love Russell Wilson, and I think Seattle’s defense might be one of the best in the league. I hated this team when I lived in Portland because I always seem to hate the “hometown” team when I move somewhere (see: Tampa early 2000′s). Now I’m very intrigued by them and think they could pose a real threat to San Francisco in the NFC West…those should be some great games. If there was ever a game to take the “under” (currently at 40.5), this would be it. I can see something like 17-6 Seattle. Poor Larry Fitzgerald, all that talent and stuck out there in the desert with Kevin Kolb (lol) or John Skelton (lmao) throwing him the ball. Can’t wait for New England to trade a 6th round pick in 2019 for him in an upcoming offseason.
Pittsburgh @ Denver (-1.5)
I’ll be interested to see how the Pittsburgh offense comes together this year. They have a lot of playmakers at WR and RB (fantasy football dorks, you heard it here first: grab Chris Rainey while you still have a chance…trust me on this one) and a new OC (Todd Haley…ALL REJOICE IN THE “RETIREMENT” OF BRUCE “NO FULLBACK” ARIANS!!11!!!!). They are perilously thin at inside linebacker, so if Timmons or Foote go down…they are in a lot of trouble. As for Denver. Fuck Denver. Fuck Tim Tebow and his bullshit playoff game and his bullshit routine. I don’t care if he is gone, I want to see Pittsburgh stomp on them and “turn Peyton Manning’s head sideways”. He still scares the shit out of me and he has a bunch of tall receivers to throw to. They have that little guy Dumervil, who always gives the big tackles for Pittsburgh trouble. I have no idea which way this game is going to go, but I’m very fired up for it.
Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-6)
Six points? I wonder if the Ravens will give little Johnny Harbaugh another Gatorade bath if they win in Week 1 again this year? RIP Art Modell.
San Diego @ Oakland (-1)
Which Phil Rivers is going to show up this year? I think I know which Carson Palmer will show: the same one who has been around since Kimo von Oelhoffen turned his knee inside out in 2006. Maybe now that everyone is talking about Denver instead of the Chargers, they will finally put together some wins to start the year…maybe not. They always seem to struggle in these late week 1 MNF games, so I’m going with the venerable Carson Palmer and the RAAAYYYDERS.
Enjoy the games. My best to you all.
10 Responses to A Change of Pace (NFL Week 1 Picks)
Let’s hope Rainey pans out. Took him in the last round of a keeper league.
Keep in mind that he’s not likely to get many touches, but when he does…look out.
Crazy Chris Rainey stat: he blocked 6 kicks (not sure if they were punts or “place” kicks) while at Florida.
I think the Jags and the Texans could pull out the win, but who cares. Also, this is the year of the Niners.
I think Houston will win, but I like the Dolphins to cover.
Nice seeing Jaco up there btw.
The greatest bass player ever…IMO.
Picked a fight with the wrong guy unfortunately.
I play a spread pick ‘em which is much damn harder than straight win/loss (meh!) – but I’m hoping a lot of these are right! Also – GO NINERS!!! ALL. THE. WAY.
Sorry…that was unclear…I was picking against the spread. I have updated the post to reflect this.
Honestly, you have to try to be this shitty. I’m just happy that I don’t actually wager on football because I would be looking at a divorce and a life of degeneracy and squalor.