iBankCoin
Full-time stock trader. Follow me here and on 12631
Joined Apr 1, 2010
8,861 Blog Posts

The Outlier Test

vCGan3L

Whether 2013 proves to be a true outlier year in the stock market when it is all said in done, equating to the fierce uptrends of 1954 or 1995, for example, is likely going to be fleshed out in the next two weeks. As @johnkicklighter noted on Stocktwits, the S&P 500 Index is coming up on 220-plus days above its 200-day moving average. Typically, the 200-day on a major index gets tested at least once a year. But, of course, there are occasional outliers.

In gauging whether a year-end melt-up is at hand, consider a stock @RaginCajun currently short inside 12631: The Facebook.

The stock has more than doubled since the mid-summer spike higher, and is basically pushing higher on a daily basis without much pause. The 30-minute timeframe below shows the head and shoulders top setup which typically should work after such a steep trend. However, the outlier factor can trump all when it does present itself every so often in that rare market year. Stop-losses are indeed crucial.

A few short squeeze long ideas I am looking at: CIEN FSL GTAT.

Financials remains, by and large, uninspiring.

Also check out this piece on Buffett.

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4 comments

  1. zookini

    FB market cap blows my mind.

    Nice article haha

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  2. StocksRider

    Chess, CIEN is an awesome idea. And good timing on calling it out. Had made a good trade in its recent uptrend. Thank you for reminding. I am going back in.

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