Looking Ahead — What Will Run Next?

The winners over the past three months have been wholly schizo. Both oil and alt energy. Both real estate and semis. Growth and income. In a word: everything. Let me amend that, everything but gold — the sole loser the past quarter.

What’s the idea? Why is gold and silver in the shit-house?

The answer is as simple as it is stupid. Gold is boring, also rigged. When markets are rich with bounce, no one wants defensive end of world bargains. The younger people rather buy Bitcoin — because it makes them feeeeel better. Cryptos are this generations fuck you to fiat currency.

Heading into the Biden era, we all expect green initiatives, which is why alt energy and solar are skyrocketing — EV and LIDAR plays all the rage. You will drink your scotch as your EV car autonomously delivers you to jail.

Once reality settles in and people see Biden cannot spend $100 trillion on windmills, I suspect these alt energy plays will tumble into ruin. I cannot, for the life of me, get behind the oil trade now. But I can foresee an enormous shift in sentiment for both gold and silver — especially after all of the sobering up happens and people bear witness to profligate spending in a locked down world.

The vaccine will probably not cure the mask epidemic and we’re likely to remained holed indoors for the next 9 months. Under said conditions, one could presume a massive boon to the stay at home plays — online retailers and fucked faces like ZM, DOCU, SE, and ETSY.

There is a major shift happening in front of your eyes. Behavior is being changed rapidly on a global scale for the first time in human history. Think about the ramifications of all this and then try to figure out where all of that money is going to go.

I’m not sure what you’re exactly waiting for me to tell you. Perhaps you want me to tell you it’s all over — but it isn’t. Another day swings by and another 100 NASDAQs have been added to the national treasury.

I’ve known for some time now, the market isn’t going down so now my job is simple. Just find what is moving today and then find stocks just like them that will follow next. Today is biotech, cancer plays, gene editing stocks. You see PRVL up so much? Sure you do. Now find me the next one.

You’re probably thinking to yourselves now “oh not me. I’m a small pleb and cannot find stocks”. But that’s wrong — you can do it scooter. Get out there and pick some fucking winners.

I’m growing a beard now, much to my wife’s chagrin. Every winter I want to grow a beard, but end up shaving it in disgust. “Too itchy. Makes me look like an animal.” Ah, but this time is different. It always is.

When I was a younger man I once grew a goat t. It was a ridiculous patch of hair plastered onto my face. It was the early 2000s and people could wear goat ts back then without being kicked down a flight of stairs. I could never really grow facial hair. After a clean shave, it took a solid 3-5 days for hair to grow back. But now I can grow it and I feel like doing it, in spite of hating the beard, deep down, if I’m really being honest.

My wife has officially declared the beard non grata and wants it off my face. Her request was examined and thoroughly declined. “So sorry, but the beard stays.”

I ought to get back to trading again, trade slave, provider of fish for a community of ingrates inside of the hallowed halls of Exodus. See you fuckers at lunch.

Listen to me.

It was a poor day for you, watching your gains spill sloppily into losses — as the Dow McPlunged lower by 186. Sometimes that’s how the cookie crumbles. You’re winning one minute, entirely fucked the next.

As for me, I watched my 200bps gain dissipate to +35bps and then I sold it all — 100% cash. I couldn’t bare looking at it any longer and wanted no part of the market. Then I got tactical and picked some high delta breakouts using Stocklabs.

I bought BCDA at 2:08pm and sold it at 2:17 for +7%.
I bought ABUS at 2:25 and sold it at 3:09 for +6.8%.
And then I bought MVIS at 2:24 and sold it at 3:09 for 5.55%.

See pal, that’s the type of person that I am. Truly.

I closed out the session bearish as fuck, but 15% long, 85% cash, higher by 120bps for the day. For the month, higher by 12.5%.

Indeud.

The UK said a fucked up uglier version of COVID has made its way into southern London — fucking citizens on a level never seen before. Over in Germany and Netherlands, HARD DICKED LOCKDOWNS are in place. NYC said “FULL LOCKDOWNS” are just around the bend. The Pfizer CEO said he did not take his own vaccine — because he didn’t want to skip the line.

Stocks are fading here, every so quietly. The Dow is flat, NASDAQ +106. What a fade, eh — NASDAQ +106.

Nevertheless, I’ve presided over a gigantic circle jerk, boring witness to early losses dissipate and meld into GIANT GAINS and now up just 0.65%. I am 50% cash and wondering “should I keep chasing?” or perhaps do something else??

Look at me. I have just graduated med school and now lead a department in charge of genetic engineering. Who’s better than me?

Early going I saw the errors in my ways and sold out of SOXS and then proceeded to buy everything moving in biotech and gene editing. I have a very specific keyword search that I am looking for and I caught a seam, if I might be so bold.

I broke EVLO in two and halted it. I sold it 10 mins later for a 25% ripper. I had TBIO from Friday and sold that for +6.66%. I also got BOGGED in PROG for -10%. Now I am 85% long, mostly in biotech hand grenades, up 190bps for the session.

What can go wrong, frankly? I am long a wide pastiche of low browed gambler stocks whose purpose in life is to cure the world of the many maladies that plague us today.

Aside from all that, stocks are bullish.

I wanted nothing more than to bet against Xmas, but it looks like I’ll be forced to fire up the old margin account and get long. I closed Friday’s session 25% long, 5% short, and a fuckload of cash. I know why I’m such a malcontent and have known for some time. However, I’m not stupid or naive and I have an acute awareness mechanism in me that permits a modicum of success.

Trading is a sport and is binary. You’re either winning or losing and the liars always get sorted out after a while. It’s unlike relationships, which are hard and filled with tragedy and  discontent. If you’re trading well and can do so consistently, you have a place to be and feel love for 10 hours a day, which is why it’s usually a hodgepodge of loners in a zone banking coin for no reason other than to win.

What will I do with the money once I make enough of it? No idea. Maybe I’ll waste it on something stupid to make me feeeeeeeel better. Or, maybe I’ll build an orbital space cannon (OSC) and use it to attack Earth.

If you think about the avocation of trading, it’s wholly stupid and inane. We spend inordinate hours away from life and people to execute transactions in order to increase the value of our digital paper money accounts, which are only worth anything because “they” say it is.

In the end, I’ll probably regret spending my life in front of a computer buying and selling numbers and letters for sport. Wisdom is only achieved after decades of mistakes and at the conclusion we know enough to impart said wisdom to younger one’s who then quickly dismiss us as old fuckers who’ve lost our minds. The way to get ahead fast is to learn the road traveled well by others instead of having to learn it slowly by yourself. But how many men allow themselves to cede their actions due to another? Very few. Most men that I know have peak wisdom from 15-35. After decades of trial and error do they realize how stupid they were and then they wished they had done it differently. But it’s already too late you absolute fucker. You’re stuck and barreling towards middle age, so you might as well fuck off.

There’s no point in this rant and you will not enjoy the conclusion if forced to write it.  But it’s never too late to show kindness and take responsibility for your actions and to show empathy. Your ego was and always will be the problem and it’s hard to lose it. But once you do, you’ll see things for what they truly are and you’ll make better decisions. But it still won’t make you happier. But you might trade better, so you’ll always have that to look forward to.

Starting Monday NYC will ban indoor dining. This is their attempt at keeping capacity levels at their hospitals under crisis levels. They had a year to plan for a second wave and instead of increasing capacity, they’ve opted to destroy small businesses. That’s a fact. Another fact is NYC has handled the COVID crisis worse than any large city in the world, with over 34k deaths. It was delightful to see all of the Cuomo fan-boys praise him a few months ago for having the model response a few months ago. That model entailed mocking and deriding Trump. The numbers didn’t matter. They never did.

So Dave calls out politicians for being hypocrites, which they are and it’s disgusting.

Politicians Are Stealing the Basic Right To Earn A Living pic.twitter.com/9Yx9Vf1iP1

— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) December 11, 2020

Yesterday billionaire Marcus Lemonis called out Dave in an attempt to embarrass him. If Marcus wanted to truly help NYC workers he could have reached out privately, but instead he did this because he’s a dick.

Hey @stoolpresidente Put your money where your mouth is.. I’ll put up 500k if you match it to create a relief fund for NYC area restaurants https://t.co/YX9ekBK3Pu

— Marcus Lemonis (@marcuslemonis) December 12, 2020

He then trolled his comments section with smug “I’m waiting” comments, thinking there’s no way nouveau rich Dave would chalk up an astounding $500k.

So then Dave accepted the challenge and any terms given by Marcus. Big dicked energy here.

Hey @marcuslemonis I’m in https://t.co/9dnBuo4T82 pic.twitter.com/k1VjKJzvxS

— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) December 12, 2020

Meanwhile…

Some might ask “what’s wrong with this guy, wanting to sell short Xmas?” To that I retort — ‘what isn’t wrong with me?’

I have a specific function around this time of year — and I attempt to do it almost without incident. Kill Santa Claus and ruin Xmas. Some might argue this is a grinch like disposition, especially during such a hard and trying year (boo-hoo), amidst the tumult and the pangs of COVID. Oh my, how have we survived with stocks at record highs?

But I am nothing like the grinch. The grinch is a pussy with parlor tricks and vaudeville gambits. Le Fly is more like KRAMPUS and I’ve come to punish you for not wearing the mask and following Bill Gates on Twitter. See, I believe in science and will not allow any of you to ruin an otherwise fine existence. Ergo, I will now sell short Xmas and kill all of you.

I stand before you a very powerful man — at record highs — 90% cash, ebbing slowing and terribly towards the menace of inverse ETfs and an overall disposition that is malignant to the livelihood of the bulls. I endeavor, dare I say, to destroy them.

Now you must be asking yourselves right now “how might I escape such tragedies?” Very simple: place the mask onto your head and hide and hope that I do not chance upon you. Stocks are going to crash lower, miserably, and inside of a fortnight, ahead of the Joe and Kammy IPO, you’ll pine for the days of shit-posting stock fraud Don. But it’s too late to change course now — prepare for severe impact!

I sold everything, +2.36% for session, +10% for the week. It doesn’t mean I’m bearish, just that I’m satiated for the time being.

I am trying to lose money here. I really truly am. Sadly, I report to you, once again, I have in fact closed at SESSION HIGHS. I had been down 60bps by 2pm and things looked rather noir for me. I felt like drowning myself in a vat of whiskey. Then I happened to CHANCE UPON SGMO and ended up selling that for a 16% winner inside 15 min flat.

Then things quickened for me. I started buying all sorts of shit in Exodus — things ramped — and now I am up 130bps. Easy come, easy come.

I am 125% leveraged, margined to the hilt — pissing into the face of Mother Market. Nothing can stop me. If something could, they would’ve done it by now.