The Best Wasn’t Good Enough

Yesterday I posited myself a man of industry and took to the market with designs to invest in “the best” concerns. I leveraged long in only “the best” stocks and was fastidiously entreated to ruinous losses today. At first it was slow and then all at once. Losses were moderately painful at 1.6% by lunch, only to accelerate into hell by 2pm to -3.7%.

Having only “the best” stocks I was then give a fork in the road.

1. Do I hold and pray for the best and let myself piss in the wind, not knowing where the wind is blowing?
2. Reduce longs and hedge to moderate volatility?

I chose the latter, because I am the smartest person that I know. I am now down 1.9% for December and I hate myself at the rapidity of the unraveling. I wanted to be normal. I envisioned myself voting at shareholders meetings and laughing alongside fellow shareholders. Instead, I am back in the trenches, a slave to intra-day trends — scared and afraid to expose myself to this cunt of a market.

I pared off the worst of my positions and the one’s outperforming and stepped in and bought UVXY and a 20% position in TZA. I furthered my plan by buying dips in SAAS stocks and that’s pretty much where I am planting my flag — long SAAS, long volatility, short IWM. My best guess is for a 30-50bps move in either direction by the opening of trade. Once I have a better idea where we are heading, I will tilt my bias towards that direction.

Since my October bottom I made sure not to expose myself to too much risk. The result has been a steady stream of gains, although methodical, it has been almost assured. Yesterday I decided to leverage long “the best” stock and today that particular area of the market, as if pointed out by the devil himself, is hammered to ash.

I stand before you stripped of my MTD gains, off by 2.3%.

DECISIONS

Do I hold the line like a fucking lunatic and hope for the best? Or, do I reduce my exposure and toss on a TZA hedge?

SAAS stocks are HAMMERED to bits today, off by 3.5%, which bodes poorly for risk. I never did believe December would be a notable month and we’re up just 2.4% for the IWM month to date. We can either bounce 2% or sink 2% from present levels and before you know it — JANUARY OF 2022 IS HERE AND THE FEAR COULD TRIPLE BY THEN SENDING STOCKS INTO THE SEWER, and much much more.

In short, I’ve determined the market isn’t at risk yet and have no urge to change my strategy, although I might moderate it with a hedge.

I have removed my inhibitions and dove into the warm water of the market. I do believe the pool is heated and hope it’s not urine that I am traversing in. I managed +108bps today and closed 122% leveraged long in only “the best” stocks. Those stocks and all of my trades are provided for, in conjunction with, the good folks inside Stocklabs — a gentleman’s club where one discusses the events of the day whilst smoking pipes and cigars, sipping brandy, and sharing investment ideas.

While it’s true, we have 2 or 3 females amongst our ranks, we largely aggravate and cause great consternation in the fairer sex, who, might I add, might prefer to bake pies at home for her husband instead of cavorting with gentlemen of industry, unchapperoned, inside our halls.

Into the teeth of December, the IWM is higher by 3.6%. This makes me slightly uneasy because there should not be much more upside. My sincerest hope is for an outlier December of 2021, which falls in line with wish-casting, a plebeian Third Estate form of behavior on par with scratch off lottery tickets.

Nonetheless, here I am long “the best” stocks in size, +235% for 2021.

Heading into Satan’s Claws, I decided to forgo trading 100 times per day and instead place my account, which is +235% for 2021, on auto-drive by purchasing all of the best stocks. The stocks I now own are the best and there’s no debating this fact, just like you cannot debate the science behind LIFE SAVING medicines or travel through space.

I’m presently leveraged 122% long these stocks without a hedge and bleeding out a bit into this minor downturn. My gains were +140bps but now they’re +77bps. No need to worry, however, since I own the best stocks.

Some might propose that I am being reckless or somewhat jejune in my positioning now, especially given the recent volatility. To those people I concede that it’s true, I am recklessly buying The Best Stocks now and have no regrets about it.

What happens if the market reverses lower?

Well then, I’ll lose some money naturally. But I will be succored by the fact that the stocks I own, many of which are trading 35 years of sales, are indeed superb.

I’m now +2% for December, big dicking it into the meat of December.

Have you ever looked at some stocks and marveled at their performance and wondered what it’d be like if you owned them? I’m a bit obsessed with stocks, but this is a feeeeeeling I often have with certain stocks I missed out on. I look at them, and wonder what an alternative timeline with me owning them might look like, then do nothing.

Well, after a decline, we all get a chance to buy our most admired stocks at a discount. Whether said discount means cheap is another question, but they’re cheaper than they were, so there’s that.

Today I bought all of my favorite stocks, closed out my triple TZA position, and promised to never be evil again.

I’m all in long.

I was having a comfortable day, +6% in Quant, +5% in Best Ideas, +1.2% in trading when the handyman I hired to replace a cartridge in my shower water handle announced “I CANNOT DO IT” and then showed me how stupid and incompetent he was — unable to access a stripped socket — but fully able to complete crack and break the cartridge so that the water is on full blast, forcing me to shut off the main.

Now I sit here, thirstier than ever, looking at the water tap wanting a tall glass of warm tapped water, hard water from the local reservoir — man-made Jordan Lake. All this happens while markets dumped out towards the end of the session, forcing me to keep buying TZA without really seeing or knowing what the fuck was going on.

Since this area is growing so fast, finding a plumber the same day is all but impossible. As a matter of fact, all are booked until next week, until I chanced upon a Russian lad with plenty of time and he’s en route now with a fucking saw right now willing and able to provide House Fly with the water necessary to live.

Sadly and regrettably, I offer no market advice in this blog, as I am too thirsty to do so. I will say, however, this market is a son of a bitch and do not believe for a second we’re off to the races filled with happy thoughts and wonderful feelings of fulfillment. We are likely to sink lower again tomorrow in the same fashion we rose today, painting a dreadfully black and bleak outlook. But again, I offer no financial advice, as I am too parched to do so.

Siiiiiiiiiipppp.

The IWM is +3% and my Quant is +6.2%. While this is all very nice and I am sure it’s fun to pretend this can continue, it cannot. We are up 3.2% on the IWM for December and 1% for QQQ. We are likely to see a divergence again, with mega caps catching up and small caps reverting back down to the fucking dogs they are.

But on the whole, look at today, and really enjoy it — for it is it — the end of the rally — FIN.

While I am predicting the end of the rally, who really gives a fuck what I think? Heck I don’t even give a fuck what I think — knowing predictions are the sandbox of the narcissistic mentally impaired. But what I am firmly suggesting is a much more moderate tone after today, more akin to what we saw over the past 8 months in the market. Sluggish mega caps outperforming amidst sharp downward reversals for high risk plays on decreasing volume.

SHOMP

Stocklabs wins again.

I closed out my TZA. Prepare for a face ripper.

After the close, MDB reported solid numbers, which is a net positive for SAAS stocks and might help offer us another leg up tomorrow. Although the rally was solid today, we are not out from the woods and I’d be remiss to not warn you that failure to bust loose from here now all but guarantees a death sentence for stocks, for the balance of 2021.

Should we gap lower tomorrow, it’s over.

But again, don’t expect fireworks in December. It just simply isn’t a month with large movements.

We’re up 0.3% on the IWM and there is very little reason for us to rally more than 3% for the entire month. Is anything spectacular? Is there a catalyst?

In the end, we all get what we deserve. I happen to deserve more, which is why I am smartly positioned without too much exposure. I closed 40% cash and 15% TZA against my longs, losing 0.4% for the session thanks to the zeroing out of my BITO calls.

The Stocklabs mean reversion algorithms told you to get involved with that. Were you man enough to listen?

What you need to figure out now is — is today a one off bounce, up more than 700 on 75% breadth, or the beginning of the Santa Claus rally? I have some very definitive ideas — but fuck off I’m not sharing them now.

Life is about taking gambles and placing one’s nuts on the kitchen table while speed chopping carrots. I do believe there is an opportunity here. I am only being vague because I felt like being an asshole.

The market has traded sideway for the past several hours and there are areas of the market not enjoying today’s melt up. But we do have oil up, rates up, and many of of the “back to normal” areas of the market leading — based on the assumption that Omicron is shit. Over in NYC, 5 years olds can’t enter a restaurant without a vaccine pass! How wonderful for the city.

More later.