18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Was it ever a question? On a long enough time line, my win rate moves to 100%.
MTD gains are now +11%, higher by almost 3% for the year coming up from the pits of hell -10%. My advice to you is simple and clear: fish less, eat more fish.
Fri Feb 11, 2022 9:52am ESTComments Off on The Beijing Olympics Ends on the Same Day Russian-Belarus War Games Concludes
We are off to the races now. Markets have decided it’s easier to ramp than concern itself with the machinations of Fed’s Bullard.
Early going, gains are concentrated in both commodities and tech, with names like BTU breaking out due to the belief that a war in Russia could in fact be somewhat of a negative news event and real life event for people depending on energy to heat their European homes. I am heavily leveraged long commodities, with hedges, +115bps so far.
The weather in Kiev is mild, 40 degrees — not cold enough to prevent mud from being produced under the treads of T-72 tanks. It’s also interesting for you to know the Beijing Olympics ends on 2/20, which is the same day the Russian-Belarus war games conclude. Take from that what you will. But just know and let this be a remindooooor to you — war is looming and with it your portfolio of high value tech stocks will be swimming in a sea of red.
First we started with the UK Minister in Russia wearing a fucking mask and elbowing the Russian Minister, as a form of diplomacy to escape the horrors of war. He told her to fuck off and left her standing at the podium by herself in front of press.
LAVROV SAYS BRITISH DIPLOMAT UNPREPARED LIKE “A MUTE TALKING TO A DEAF PERSON”pic.twitter.com/RvzG57OmP3
Then we V shaped up in the morning amidst all of the pomp you could ask for, post catastrophic CPI numbers.
Price increases over last year (CPI report) Used Cars: +40.5% Gasoline: +40.0% Gas Utilities: +23.9% Meats/Fish/Eggs: +12.2% New Cars: +12.2% Electricity: +10.7% Overall CPI: +7.5% Food at home: +7.4% Food away from home: +6.4% Transportation: +5.6% Apparel: +5.3% Shelter: +4.4%
Buy now pay never stock Affirm accidentally tweeted out an earnings miss, causing the stock to plummet by 40% from the session highs. It halted, collapsed again, halted, and everyone who was playing got raped.
So apparently the fucking morons at $AFRM accidentally tweeted their earnings intra day and caused the stock to careen lower and crash.
While all of this was happening, the NASDAQ shed 300, but worse was the action in the bond markets. Treasuries, high yield, and junk collapsed in unison.
As for me, I managed fine — quickly positioning into UVXY and SQQQ positions to hedge my longs and closed the session +3%, off 2% from session highs. I did not sell my oils because of my belief there is a profound Russian put in the market now.
After the close, looks like good earnings out of NET, Z, and HUBS, so perhaps we can bounce. Truth is, we haven’t gone up on a Thursday in 7 weeks straight and the market has been incredibly difficult now with the specter of Fed hikes. At the end of the session there was even chatter the Fed might come out TOMORROW to do an emergency rate hike. If so, we might see the market truly collapse under those conditions.
NOTE: We are doing free trials at Stocklabs. Take advantage of my generosity and join us in the Pelican Room. Free 7 days, cancel at any time and you will not be charged.
With today’s insane inflation data in the books, Bullard was dispatched by the WH to get the narrative out of control, with the goal is stymying inflation. How does one do this? Dollar up, commodities down — STOCKS COLLAPSE. The way to fight higher prices is by lowering them, obviously.
In case you didn’t know, we offer our Stocklabs newswire for free. You can check it out here.
Bottom line: I like short tech, long commodities. Rates are up a staggering 11bps to 2.04%, which is bad for housing. It’s hard to be sanguine here with the Fed trying to deflate. I will say, however, their efforts to deflate commodities are checked by Russia’s military movements.
All thanks and praise to my margin clerks for extending the capital needed to trade out from my grave. At the height this morning I was 170% leveraged long commodity stocks. Stuff like BTU and shippers and grains and all of the wondrous things that are taxing us on a day to day life in America.
Today’s gains are a much needed BOOSTER shot for yours truly. I was feeling somewhat depressed that I had started the year -10%. Those losses have since been erased and I am now barreling through the market place with the kind of style and panache you’d expect from someone of my class and stature.
LOOK AT THE GAINS AND BEHOLD YOUR DICKS AS I ADD TO IT.
How’d I do it? Where was the confidence?
War, gentlemen, war. It looms and it’s all around us and this coming conflagration will result in sharply higher commodity prices. Did you know Belarus was the #3 exporter of Potash? Of course you didn’t — because you don’t work hard.
I’d also like to give a public shout out to my friend Diddy inside Stocklabs, arguably the best trader in there who woke me up last week when I insisted SAAS and other tech stocks were worth chasing down the sewer hole. His statements pertained to the idea of “why chase shit when there is gold on the mantle all shiny and clean for you to take?”
Price increases over last year (CPI report) Used Cars: +40.5% Gasoline: +40.0% Gas Utilities: +23.9% Meats/Fish/Eggs: +12.2% New Cars: +12.2% Electricity: +10.7% Overall CPI: +7.5% Food at home: +7.4% Food away from home: +6.4% Transportation: +5.6% Apparel: +5.3% Shelter: +4.4%
Inflation data came in hot, +7.5% — now beating expectations in 9 of the last 11 months. Moreover, the US 10yr is now at 2%, soaring more than 7bps. We have seen futures collapse and we’re all very concerned now, as the NASDAQ is set to decline by 300. Cryptos have collapsed alongside stocks. It’s over.
Meanwhile in Moscow, my eyes and ears cannot believe what they are seeing and hearing. Apparently the UK representative (Liz Truss) (I cannot consider her to be a statesmen or diplomat) attended the fucking meeting with a mask and would not shake Lavrov’s hand. Let me get this straight, she is there is potentially save thousands of lives from the pangs of war — and yet finds herself so scared to get the flu she opted to not appeal to her counterpart with warmth and instead chose to MASK UP and offer him an elbow instead of a hand?
Tomorrow at 8:30am the CPI data will be released and I am certain the number will be HOT. If so, it will further solidify the market’s belief that the Fed will hike 7 times (lol) during 2022. If, by chance, the Biden regime finds a way to rig it lower, we will get, in my opinion, a fierce rally, led higher by commodities. I guess the question is, how rigged are we?
We all know inflation is higher than 10%. We can see it everywhere we go. I am hoping for more lies, this way my leveraged portfolio of commodity stocks can run higher.
I closed the day +195bps, in spite of starting off slow and with 20% of my positions in leveraged short ETFs. I bought throughout the day, avoiding tech in favor of commodity driven names. The reason is two fold.
1. Technically they are superior to everything else and do not have the same identical patterns that is seen in just about every beaten down stock running higher now.
2. When Russia attacks Ukraine, energy prices will explode.
On the off chance the markets collapse tomorrow it will be due to Russia and/or stronger than expected CPI data. It is very likely that if we crash lower tomorrow — markets will continue to slide so you’ll probably want to get the fuck out and start over again.
Healthcare is leading and financials lagging. Notice the data on bottom of column titled “VD”. That is our volume delta metric and it says volume overall is -25% today.
The biggest individual industry movers are in nuclear and solar, followed by electric vehicles and cannabis. Basically, heavily shorted stocks are squeezing higher, as hedges are removed to accommodate a market suddenly in an upswing.
Does this mean the war is over yet? It hasn’t even begun lads. Be patient and soon the fires will burn hot and bright.
Hard take for some of you MAGA-retards. You blame a sleeping man for everything — but meanwhile in the real world Trump enacted all of the stimmy bullshit and the vaccines and the never-ending spending that only seems to increase. Everything that you blame Biden for — Trump started. How about releasing your favorite rapper from jail? Trump did that too.
No matter the President, the policies remain the same. Our deep bureaucracies almost ensure nothing ever changes quickly. And now we have, for whatever reason, purposeful inflation.
Oil, cotton, natty, coffee, and soy beans are all up double digits in 2022 already. With this backdrop, why would you play another sector in the market than those fitted to profit from this?
Fertilizer costs are through the roof and this will inevitably lead to less supply of food, a vicious cycle playing out in slow motion on purpose — and Jim Biden isn’t awake enough hours in the day to do anything about it.
I’m 150% leveraged long now, mostly commodities, +2% for the session.
