CHEERS TO THE PROFESSIONALS

Bull markets come and go and with them the fortunes made by trader amateurs, mountebanks who sashay in and out of bull markets blowing up in fantastical form — only to come back later on under a new guise offering new SCHEMES for the express purposes of solicitation.

SIRS —

I stand before you once again victorious, on an immense scale. I have won the war and continue to beat upon my enemy until there is nothing left — complete genocide and salting of their lands.

What do I speak of?

Why I speak of gains Sir, gains, and lots of them.

Gaze upon those two images and come to realize that I am not only +16% YTD but my automated Quant for God sakes is +6%. How did I do it?

It is my best talent.

I am what some call ‘the real deal’ and I talk shit because I can back it up.

You will never see me, however, inside of a LAMBO or traversing the planet in search for exotic things — because that stuff is for pussies. I drive an ordinary car and live in an ordinary home and live an ordinary life and expect my life to come and go without much festivities. Nevertheless, while I walk this earth and breathe this air — very few of you can outmatch me in markets.

Into the close, I was fully invested, heavy emphasis on Ag and ancillary ag plays, hedged with a 10% holding in UVXY.

Here’s a 7 day free trial to SL.

The CEO of PXD said if we place sanctions on Russian oil — the price of WTI will spike to $150-200bbl. About 15 mins after he said that, the White House released this presser.

BIDEN ADMIN IS WEIGHING A BAN ON US IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN CRUDE OIL AS CONGRESS RACES TOWARD PASSING SUCH A RESTRICTION

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 4, 2022

The result was a mega spike in WIT and Brent with prices at session highs — Brent nearing $118.

In the oil markets, an array of names are +20-50%. I am presently long PHX, NEXT — having sold out from many others into this spike. I remain fully long my ag plays, since famine is something not to be trifled with.

The NASDAQ is stable but sharply lower at -275 and the 10yr is plunging lower to 1.73%. This is a classic risk off trade with exception to commodities. In case you’re wondering about a diplomatic resolution:

PUTIN CONFIRMS CRIMINAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR CALLS FOR SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA – TASS

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 4, 2022

PUTIN SIGNS LAW TO SEIZE ASSETS IF FOREIGNERS HARM RUSSIANS: IFX

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 4, 2022

WHITE HOUSE: BIDEN HAS NO INTENTION OF ENGAGING IN DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS WITH PUTIN *

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 4, 2022

Perhaps they’ll find a way to eat bugs. Maybe this is why they were telling you to eat bugs these past few years — lads like Billy Gates and his soy burgers topped off with cockroaches. With all of the nice hungry African fellows STEAMING into your continent, it’s only a matter of time before the lot of you starve due to Russian wheat and fertilizer OFF THE MARKET.

Prices for the widely used nitrogen fertilizer urea surged 29% in New Orleans for the week ended Feb. 25 — a record jump for the 45-year Green Markets index — after Russia began its attack.
Halted exports from Russia would mean higher costs for farmers worldwide, potentially increasing food inflation when global food prices have already been hitting record highs.

“Russia is the world’s largest urea exporter and second largest potash exporter,” Alexis Maxwell, an analyst for Bloomberg’s Green Markets, said in an email. “Their absence from the global market would squeeze buyers already scrambling for tons.”

HEY! The good news is you can hedge against your famine by going long MOS, IPI and NTR, maybe some CF too. Also, and this goes without saying, Ukraine will soon be under Russian control and they’re a major exporter of wheat and corn themselves, so there’s always that to think about.

The west have bankrupted Russia and now Russia will starve and freeze the west. This has all of the makings for a great big war! The silver lining to the war, obviously, is all them strapping African gents might refrain, dare I say, from exporting themselves into your cities and most might just consider Nigeria to be a preferable locale whilst things are hot. Also, the population reduction from the war might alleviate, shall I say, any grave concerns your leaders might have, or misgivings rather, about the famine that is to come.

I’m +150bps in a horrendous tape — because I am a fucking space alien magician (SAM).

What are we talking about, normal garden variety GDP recession or a crisis of the banks and general economy that causes a spiraling lower in all economic statistics? Perhaps a hot war with Russia might lend to some risk aversion when tankers are being torpedoed in the pacific.

If we are to compare current PE or more importantly PS metrics vs 2008, the last real financial crisis, we have at least 50% more downside to go from here. I know that sounds unusually cruel, but the numbers do not lie.

Price to sales metrics for tech sector, via Stocklabs

Fun fact about the Moscow exchange, the last time it closed for this long was 1917, at which point it remained closed for another 75 years. Russia will just nationalize everything and remove the idea of a stock exchange.

As for America, we need our financial assets. It’s the best thing we have going for us. Let’s hope the worst case doesn’t play out. But if we do head into real crisis, know the lines in the sand from historical precedence.

NFPs came in hot as fuck at 678k new jobs for February, reducing unemployment to 3.8%. Fed’s Evans says we’ll need to hike 25bps at every meeting for the foreseeable future. No one give a fuck, as the US 10yr sinks this morning 8bps to 1.76%.

NASDAQ Futs are -140, following an overly dramatic evening of Russia bombing a nuclear power plant. Calls for a no fly zone are still being rejected at NATO, but there are headwinds of a most significant varietal. Before I get to the news, just know commodities are soaring across the board again with WTI +4%, Nickel +10% and every single thing that contributes to inflation getting worse.

As for the news. Here goes.

2x ??USAF B-52H Stratofortress long-range strategic bombers airborne over Romania ?? pic.twitter.com/v4xgHXUo4K

— C O U P S U R E (@COUPSURE) March 4, 2022

PRESIDENT ZELENSKIY OF UKRAINE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CONCESSIONS THAT WILL EMBARRASS UKRAINIANS IN THEIR FIGHT FOR TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY, ACCORDING TO A PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER.

NORD STREAM 2 HAS FILED FOR INSOLVENCY – TASS

UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR: WE WILL NOT ANNOUNCE THE DATE AND TIME OF UPCOMING TALKS WITH RUSSIA IN ADVANCE.

EU OFFICIALS LOOKING AT SUSPENDING RUSSIA’S IMF VOTING RIGHTS, ACCESS TO SDR CURRENCY – SOURCES

The British government will soon put forward proposals to stop Russian oligarchs using its court system to sue those seeking to shine a light on corruption, Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab said on Friday

US embassy in Ukraine says it is a ‘war crime to attack a nuclear power plant’ and says Putin’s ‘reign of terror’ has been taken one step further.

RUSSIA CALLS ON NATIONS TO “NORMALIZE RELATIONS” WITH THEM

NATO’S STOLTENBERG: ALLIES AGREE THAT THERE SHOULD BE NO NATO PLANES OR TROOPS IN UKRAINIAN AIRSPACE OR ON UKRAINIAN SOIL.

NATO has decided to increase information sharing with Finland and Sweden

Nato is “ready for a conflict” if needed, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned.

“Nato is a defensive alliance. We don’t want conflict. But if the conflict comes to us, we are ready for it.

“We will protect every inch of Nato territory”

Russia’s lower house of parliament unanimously passed legislation imposing 15-year prison sentences for “fake news” about Russia’s military

Prime Minister of Lithuania says calls for NATO no-fly zone in Ukraine are ‘irresponsible’

And here’s some humor, courtesy of the great nation of India.

INDIAN TV IS WILD. WATCH TILL THE END
pic.twitter.com/5jYK4KMJGY

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 4, 2022

Good morning.

Hello Sirs —

It should please you to know I made 1.06% in today’s train wreck of a tape, thru a variety of longs and shorts — all commodity oriented. See, I am an Ag Man now — a gentleman about the farm surveying his field workers while wearing a nice tweed suit and pocket watch. I see the war is raging and rumors that Russia is about to institute a NATIONWIDE DRAFT of 20 million men, so I figured before I die — I could make a great sum of money off this.

The entire Russian Federation is being attacked severely and without an exit ramp. There is only one way out and it is forward, gentleman.

DO NOT BE FOOLED by talks to peace. None of that will come to fruition. The plan is, and has always been, war.

I could prattle on about my stock predictions — but you’d be better off just clicking the link here (Stocklabs) and joining for a month and see how we trade in the Pelican Room and if its suits your needs. WARNING: it is not for the faint of heart and you will be offended.

I haven’t had coffee in the past two days, since I decided to test myself again and it has resulted in a pounding headache. If my fucking head thinks I will cave in and sip some Joe — it has another thing coming to it.

At the end of the day, we’re all just trains passing each other in the night. Try to make the best of your time here and have fun.

Cheers

Between Russia and Ukraine, ~25% of the world’s supply of wheat, or at least the amount on the export market, can go completely offline to “the west” at any moment. The ETF that tracks wheat (WEAT) is +21% today. Roughly 40% of the natural gas supplies to Europe come from Europe, so we have an issue now whereby war with Russia will become increasingly uncomfortable for many people. I have no doubt in our ability to innovate ways around this. At this very moment, I am certain Bill Gates and the band are trying to figure out how to make bread out from bugs, or heat your homes with the burning bones of human remains.

Either way, where there is tumult, there is also opportunity.

Companies that focus on potash or increasing crop yields are buys: IPI, MOS, CF, BG, FMC etc

Coal companies are buys: BTU, ARCH, METC, HCC

You can go down the nuclear route too, look at stocks such as CCJ, UUUU, UEC and LEU.

Price inflation hurts the poors most, so I am certain stimulus will be coming soon — which in spite of whatever the fuck Powell thinks he’s gonna do — rates will be coming down in a nightmare scenario of starving poors, runaway prices at the store, war, and of course nothing to heat your homes with.

Welcome to the great reset!

Look no further than these two statements to see where we are now.

RUSSIAN FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE CHIEF SAYS FOR US THIS IS NO LONGER COLD WAR WITH THE WEST BUT HOT WAR – INTERFAX

PUTIN: WE WILL DESTROY THE WESTERN-CREATED ANTI-RUSSIA.*

Your Royal Lords have demanded that you get really mad at people thousands of miles away from your backyard garden and if called upon — send your boys to fight and die for the glory of the fucking Ukraine. We do this in the name of democracy, so cherished and holy — except for brief interludes when people aren’t willing to inject their teenagers with potentially deadly vaccines or if you might voice an opinion that goes against current state edicts. Other than that, democracy is great — with all of its wonders and spiteful ways.

The backdrop of WW3 isn’t affecting the Dow, which is up 110. The weakness today is small caps and tech. SAAS stocks are down 4.5% and the only place to hide now is in commodity stocks and the occasional old man grocery store type name.

Heading into the close I anticipate carnage.

There are several important developments you’ll need to keep an eye on. I’ll list these things below.

Macron-Putin had a 90 min call today that left Macron to say the worst is yet to come, Putin wants all of Ukraine

UK’s Truss wants Russian oil sanctioned

Ukraine is discussing having peace keepers on their soil aka foreign soldiers to fight Russia aka WW3

Ukraine is asking Europe to stop buying Russian gas

Finland’s President is flying to US tomorrow for emergency meeting with Biden

A large amount of Russian military equipment was spotted in northern Russia, perhaps en route to Finnish border

Russia sent both Sweden and Finland a letter demanding security guarantees

India rejected US sanction request on Russia and now the US is looking to sanction India.

Anything Russian is canceled by spiteful people who want to see worldwide genocide.

NASDAQ FUTS we’re +100 PM, but now plunging because, well, see above.

The anti Russian rhetoric is at a fever’s pitch and you should not delude yourselves into believing this will end peacefully. Go out and buy some iodine pills, because Japan just seized the assets of about a half dozen Russian banks. Forget about closing business markets to Russia. Instead of opting for a diplomatic end to a legitimate gripe about NATO on Russia’s front yard, we have gone scorched earth, General Lemay style and soon the satanists will be out in the field killing Russians and their civilians and their infrastructure while calling them war criminals.

At any rate, commodities are skyrocketing in the overnight session and this now has an identical feel to 2008, pre collapse. Hyperbolic moves like this are not sustainable and it will break global GDP, no question.

I will avoid tech like the plague, see SNOW for reasons why, and remain long ag, energy, transporting of commodities, chemicals, while also being hedged every single day at the close.