BIDEN TO PLACE BAN ON RUSSIAN OIL TODAY; CRUDE SPIKES

Our dear good friends the fucking Ukrainians. Oh dear Ukrainians. I am more than willing to pay $10-20 per gallon for gasoline just so they can undertake war against Russia — because their interests are mine and mine not so much theirs. It’s so important in this time of pain and suffering that we take the Ukrainian flag and place it in our profiles and make statements like “the poor Ukrainians — how are thou?”

BIDE TO PLACE A BAN ON RUSSIAN CRUDE TODAY

Shell to stop all Russian oil and gas purchases, apologizes for buying shipment after Ukraine invasion

WTI is north of $125 and all the world can think about now is — how can war with Russia be most profitable? We went from BLM riots and burning cities to COVID vaccines and fired over medical status to a world war with Russia. Make no mistake about it, we are at war with Russia and all of the trimmings that come with it will soon rear its disgusting head. Aside from soaring commodities, we now have soaring rates — with the 10yr now +11bps to 1.85%

I’m going to slow down my trading and the size in which I keep my exposure. I think the easy money in commodities has been made and it might be time to be risk averse again.

CARLSON: WE LIVE IN A COUNTRY OF MORAL PANICS
pic.twitter.com/lM6lzW7i1p

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 8, 2022

CARLSON: AMERICAN POLITICIANS WANT WAR WITH RUSSIA
pic.twitter.com/8TKUJDjJDl

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 8, 2022

CORRECTION: After the natives went wild at the Goro Nickel mine in New Caledonia, VALE sold it in 2021 to PRONY RESOURCES. Ergo, VALE is not the nickel play I thought it was.

Fun fact: VALE owns the nickel mines in New Caledonia — who is the chief supplier of nickel to Tesla for their batteries. On the whole, the EV sector will be in tumult with Russian supply off-line.

New Caledonia has roughly 25% of the world’s nickel supply and with Russian sanctions locking them out from every place but China — it stands to reason the price for electric cars are going to skyrocket soon — given the recent squeeze in Nickel.

EV batteries require lithium, graphite, cobalt, lithium, manganese and nickel.

Any company possessing those materials will be bid up in the coming days, weeks, and months to come.

It’s 100% over — but I still bought SHOP, CRM, and SE today. Old habits die hard and although today’s feverish rally was in basic materials — SHIT OILS popping 50-100% a piece today — I ended up saving my session with a 15% UVXY position. My gains weren’t ribald, more of the genteel nature +1.42%. My quant gained 2.3%.

This bodes well for me, especially with the NASDAQ collapsing 500 points of pure agony. I was a believer in peace at the open, but no more. Never believe in peace, only war.

So as we ebb towards inevitably — keep note that we have weaponized the dollar and all of our corporations against Russia — whom we deem as our enemy. No emerging market in their right mind will want to be in our system any longer. It’s now us and Europe vs the world. Perhaps it works out for us — but the global growth story that kept us nice and safe, knitted together, is dead.

For weeks commodity FAGS have enjoyed the splendor of sharply higher commodity prices which have helped shares propel to new highs. Today we had a blow off top, likely due to the trade being crowded by fucking hot money meme-retard imbeciles. Now that Reddit has entered the trade, it has since turned into shambles.

STAGGERING LOSSES OFF SESSION HIGHS pic.twitter.com/PU1ciYIysH

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 7, 2022

Nickel is +73% and this has brought me into the rabbit hole of nickel production. Pro tip: we don’t have any. All of it is mined in Asia, or most of it, and of course Russia. There is a French colony off the coast of Australia named New Caledonia that mines so much of it — the people who live there are rich. Naturally the aboriginals are subjugated to squalor whilst the Europeans eat the finest France has to offer — but we do not care about human rights any longer in a time of war.

I do not think the commodity trade is dead. However, it might pause or pull back for a week in order to destroy all of the hot money in them now. Nevertheless, the prices of raw commodities will continue to go up because Russia.

My Quant for March is mostly oil and was +5% earlier today and is now only +40bps. My trading account was +2%, left more than 2% off potential gains, only to trade my way into giving back 140bps and now stand up just 0.6% for the session.

But I am grateful.

I am 65% cash, 15% weighted in UVXY with some tech and 1 commodity stock and a whole lot of patience. The safe havens are few and this is one of those days you might want to sit out until after 3:30pm.

Typical narcissism at play in my trading this morning. Since I was hot and +30% over the past two weeks, I literally thought every move I’d make would be gold — even if it was counter-trend. At the open I sold my winners, all in oils and ag and volatility and went long SHIT: semis, bios, SAAS.

The result?

Instead of making another 2% on my holdings, with just 15% long in those fucking placed I have back almost HALF my daily gains. I have since acquiesced and admitted being stupid, sold them, and hence replaced them with some materials — still 85% cash.

Knowing myself, it’s probably best I do not trade for the rest of the session. I am liable to whip-saw myself and endure pink levels at 10000,0000% and above, causing me to lose money in a session where I should’ve minted.

My best play here is to position in what’s working at the end of session and then just fuck off and hope for the best. It’s awfully discouraging to see a good streak end in such a fashion, selling what you love and buying what you hate just for the sake of trying to be right and a little too coy.

Fuck off Fly!

I booked my gains this morning, a little bittersweet since I was +5% and only ended up with +2%. I had 20 positions and most of them green and some of them ran after I sold them — but there’s no fucking crying in trading. You make your bed and then you sleep in it. Sure, I could’ve been +5% for the session had I sold in the pre-market. I also didn’t have to get long tech and biotech after I sold my commodities and UVXY — but I did that too.

Markets are now careening lower and for good reasons; but I happen to be on the bullish side of the trade now because I am betting on a Russia-Ukrainian peace agreement. Why would I do such a thing? No idea, other than to suggest that such a deal exists somewhere in the ether and it’s their job to figure it out.

My gains have been reduced to +1.5% on this downturn in markets — with the NASDAQ now -100.

NEVERTHELESS, I will not cry and I also will not stubbornly hold onto this trades for the sake of being proven right.

I am 85% cash, now +18.1% for 2022.

Here are the terms:

Ukraine must change its constitution to guarantee it won’t join any “blocs”, i.e. NATO + EU.
-Must recognise Crimea as part of Russia.
-Must recognise the eastern separatist regions as independent.

On this peace offer, European markets are flat, which is +4% off lows. Some of the riskier market in Europe, such as Italy and Spain, were down over 5% and are now up. Oil and almost every other commodity appear to have undergone a blow off top, with copper now -3%. WTI was around $130 and now it’s $118. NASDAQ futures are +200 off the lows and might in fact open green, which is funny because it’s a meme by now. Whenever you see markets crash just look at them and say “green by the open” and it shall be so.

But then there’s this:

UKRAINE’S FOREIGN MINISTRY: RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE TO FIRE MISSILES AT CITIES INCLUDING KYIV AND MARIUPOL.

And this.

Sending foreign weapons to Ukraine will lead to a “global collapse,” Interfax

In short, nothing is official until both sides agree. If I’m Ukraine I take this deal in a second. The downside is they lose a part of the country that is ethnically Russian and you don’t get to join the other homos in NATO. The upside is if you beat Russia, kill 500,000 people in the process doing it, get to join NATO, and then Russia nukes you.

The Great Commodity Super Cycle is upon you Sir. The danger to the upside is most extreme and do not be FOOLED into false hopes of Ukrainian victory over Russia. There is a 0% chance Russia will lose. It might take 2 weeks or 2 years — but rest assured, Ukraine will be under Russian auxiliary control and with it Pax Americana.

While we cancel Russia on Twitter and Facebook, Russia is canceling our space rockets and access to food and energy, which is causing pricing to mega spike. On news of escalation, WTI is +12 to $127 and all other commodities under the sun are mooning. Expect more of the same until relations are normalized and/or American elites permit capitalism to profit from this spike vis a vie producing more oil. In order to drill more, the EPA needs to fuck off and pipelines need to be permitted to exist, whether or not they endanger turtles in the process.

NASDAQ FUTS are -250 and VIX is +5%.

“The Fly” is of course positioned for this eventuality and shall be minting more coin inside Stocklabs tomorrow. Join now or continue to fall under the yoke of stupidity and suffer the consequences of your amateurish approach to capital markets.

In my previous post I said the anti-NATO comments coming from Zelensky were encouraging for him to save face and come to terms with Russia. Well, you can scratch all of that and prepare for scorched earth, since it seems the US is going to allow NATO nations donate planes to Ukraine. Since Ukraine has limited places they could store/take off from, it would seem entirely possible a country like Poland might give them permission to use their airfields. Yesterday Russia said that was their redline.

Poland may provide Ukraine with MiG-29 fighters and Su-25 attack aircraft and receive F-16 fighters in exchange from the U.S., The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources in the U.S. administration

BLINKEN: WE ARE WORKING WITH POLAND TO BACKFILL JETS SO THEY CAN DONATE PLANES TO UKRAINE pic.twitter.com/8gpJXs4tB5

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 6, 2022

Russia’s Defense Ministry says countries which use their airfields to supply Ukraine with fighter jets may be regarded as participants in the conflict

TIKTOK SAYS IT IS SUSPENDING LIVESTREAMING IN RUSSIA

American Express suspends all operations in Russia and Belarus

Italy seizes more than $150 million in yachts and villas from wealthy Russians

Without question, the entire world has canceled Russia, aside from using their oil. But do not be too harsh on nations for not canceling Russian oil — for if they did the price would spike to $200 and everyone would suffer.

If we’re being honest here, the ground is being prepared for war against Russia. According to all social media reports, the Russian military is an entire clown-show and the Ukrainians are easily destroying them, yet at the same time quietly giving up land to these bozos in Javelin targets. So it seems we can easily take on Russia and we could easily subjugate them, all the while turning the entire Ukraine into a living hell hole where millions will eventually die. This is the clay “the west” has chosen to sacrifice in order to preserve democracy and prevent Russian aggression.

Why do we get to choose the successor? https://t.co/eSWnly6fN0

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 6, 2022

Be on guard for Russian mass mobilization next followed by conscription in the west in order fight against evil. Your sons might die on ancestral Russian soil — but find solace in knowing he did so for such a great cause — the preservation of democracy and the end of Putin — le tyrant of our time.

PS: your sons will likely receive the COVID-19 vaccines during his stay in the army.

I view these comments as constructive for a path towards peace.

Ukraine’s president condemns NATO for decision to not enforce no-fly zone, says it gives ‘green light’ to further bombardment

UKRAINE HAS OFFERED TO CONVENE THE NEXT ROUND OF NEGOTIATIONS WITH RUSSIA ON MARCH 7TH

UKRAINE FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS IF NATO DOES NOT ESTABLISH NO FLY ZONE, IT IS BECAUSE IT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH

With the reality that NATO will not subjugate its people into what could be a very costly and deadly war with Russia, the Zelensky regime is making public statements against NATO and that is good for coming to terms with Russia. This could be their way of saving face and it might even be at the request of the United States.

The alternative, and you hate to see it, is a long protracted war. While some might view the current bogged down nature of the Russian military advance as a good things — the exact opposite is true. The more resistance they face the harsher their war-fare will become and with that their weaponry, such a spider web nets that cover entire blocks laces with explosives. Zelensky has to realize, as any sane man would, he cannot beat Russia and if there is no balance of power in this war — the only result will be pain and suffering for his people.

Some other statements out of Russia paint a much grimmer picture.

RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY HAS CALLED ON NATO AND THE EUROPEAN UNION TO CEASE SUPPLING WEAPONRY TO UKRAINE, CLAIMING THAT STINGER MISSILES COULD WIND UP IN THE HANDS OF TERRORISTS – RIA.

Putin warns Ukraine might lose statehood “if they continue doing what they are doing”

Kremlin says the West is behaving like bandits

PUTIN: ANY ATTEMPT TO CREATE A NO FLY ZONE BY ANOTHER COUNTRY IN UKRAINE WOULD BE SEEN AS DIRECT INVOLVEMENT IN MILITARY ACTIVITIES

RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY: BRITAIN HAS CLEARLY CHOSEN TO MOVE TOWARDS AN OPEN CONFRONTATION WITH RUSSIA

PUTIN: THESE SANCTIONS ARE EQUIVALENT TO WARpic.twitter.com/THpUEVA4Hs

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 5, 2022

This is a classic carrot vs stick choice and, barring the sudden change of heart out of Moscow, the primrose path towards peace is entirely up to Ukraine. Unfortunately, they’re on the verge of losing their independence due to the foreign affairs choices they made.