Fly Sell: MTW

I booked profits on MTW.

I averaged down on DMND.

After one of my servants in the comments section alerted me to SOPA, I did a little research and, much to your chagrin, have pledged solidarity with our lowly government. This may come as a surprise to many of you, since I run and operate one of the more successful and popular finance blogs in the world. However, the fact remains, vagrants must be put in their places.

What does that mean (chin scratcher)?

It means the majority of the bloggers and content providers should fall under the government auspices (hammer) and perhaps be arrested, for crimes against the republic. Remember, in a post 9/11 world, our clam-shuckers in DC cannot afford to let you have freedom. There are terrorists everywhere and pirates cannot enjoy the luxuries of internet access, like tax avoiding, insider trading government representatives. The internet “kill switch” will be used and many of you shall be detained for hate speech.

How is that just?

Quit thinking about things in black and white. This is a gray area, Sir, where fat chinned lawyers dictate the will of the American people through the proxy of the law. As a gentlemen of this republic and active member of Gentlemen Against Plebs (GAP), I’d like to see many of my competitors shut the fuck down, via government laser beam aka kill switch.

In other news, the market doesn’t want to go down; it’s honey badgering higher and there is nothing you or your stupid friends can do about it. We can all hope and pray for stocks to fall, basing our dreams on inevitability. Look at the fucking Mayans; apparently, their calendar ends this year–which can only mean one thing: the man who made the calendar died when he was mapping out 2012.

These messages are all very convoluted and prolixity seems to plague this blog post with unparalleled eloquence– but know this: “The Fly” drinks tea with the Gods and converses with shadows near his favorite urinal. The secrets of the world–as well as the market–are revealed to him in dreams and delivered here in riddles for all of you to decipher.

The bottom line: I like FSLR.

A huge market short cut that many people take is buying up the 52 week high list. Well versed investors often scoff at such behavior as being “sheepish” because it requires zero thinking. For the intelligent investor, there is nothing like buying a beaten old stock, like FTK, when it’s nothing and watching it rise to grandeur. However, I will be the first to tell you, those are rare occurrences.

For the most part, price action is correct, until things get too overheated or over-frozen. If you knew absolutely nothing about stocks and wanted one strategy to study, buying stocks near their 52 week highs is a great start. After all, big winners live on that list. Apple was on it at $50 and again at $100, then $200, then $300 and now north of $420. Get my drift?

Naturally the danger to chasing momentum is timing an exact top, like NFLX north of $300. However, you can simply put 10-15% stop losses underneath some of these high fliers and try to mitigate risk by buying a basket, as opposed to just one or two.

Here are some stocks that caught my eye that are within 5% of their 52 week highs, with market caps above $100 million–sorted by industry.

Chinese Burritos
SNP
HNP

Textiles
PVH
CRI
OXM

Steel & Iron
ROCK

Sporting Goods
SWHC
RGR
HIBB
POOL

Specialty Chemicals
SXT
NEU
FUL
WPZ

Security and Protection Services
FBHS

Restaurants
SBUX
YUM
PNRA
MCD
PZZA
EAT
CMG
CBRL

Residential Construction
TOL
LEN
DHI

Railroads
UNP
WAB
NSC
KSU
CP
ARII

Processed and Packaged Goods
THS
MJN
SJM
MKC
LNCE
GIS
CAG
BGS

Personal Products
ULTA
PG
KMB
EL

Paper and Paper Products
IP
KS
TIN
NP
BKI

Oil & Gas Equipment and Services
MIND

Oil and Gas Drilling Exploration
PACD
CIE
MWE
CLR

Medical Instruments and Supplies
ELGX
CMN
SONO
OSUR
ICUI

Medical Appliances and Equipment
ZOLL
VAR
SYNO
ISRG
ALGN

Internet Information Providers
RATE
HSTM
INSP

Industrial Equipment Wholesale
MSM
GWW
DXPE
ARG
AIT

Independent Oil and Gas
VOC
SDT
SUG
STR
EPD

Home Improvement Stores
HD
LOW

Home Furnishing and Fixtures
MFRM
SCSS

Home Furnishing Stores
PIR

Healthcare Plans
WCG
UNH
MDF
HUM
HS
HNT
CNC
AET

Grocery Stores
WFM
CASY

Machine Tools and Accessories
ROLL

General Building Materials
VAL
AWI

Food Wholesale
CORE

Food-Major Diversified
LANC
KFT
HNZ

Farm Products
CVGW
CALM

Entertainment Diversified
MSG
TWX
NWSA

Electronics Wholesale
VOXX

Electronics Equipment
GRMN
GNRC

Drug Manufacturers
VRUS
SNTS
MDCO
CBST
AGN
SHPGY
ADLR
SPPI
PFE
MRK
LLY
JNJ
GSK
GILD
CELG
BMY
BiiB
AMGN
ABT

Diversified Machinery
CFX
SHFL
PLL
MIDD

Diversified Electronics
AAPL

Diversified Communication Services
EQIX
COR
CCOI
NSR
CCI
AMT

Discount Stores
DG
WMT
NDN
FRED
DLTR

Department Stores
M
TJX
CPWM

Defense/Aerospace
LMT
TDG
GR
BEAV

Credit Services
NNI
GCA
EFX
DFS
ADS

Confectioners
HSY

Business Services
VRSK
WXS
V
UNF
TSS
SNX
INWK
HPY
CTAS

Biotech
CLVS
EXAS
INHX
VPHM
REGN
ONXX
NBIX
MITI
MDVN
HALO
ELN
CBM
ARIA

Beverages-Soft Drinks
MNST
KOF

Auto Parts Stores
ORLY
AZO
AAP

Auto Parts
SMP
LKQX
GPC
CLC

Auto Dealerships
SAH
GPI
CRMT
CPRT
ABG

Apparel Stores
FL
BEBE

Application Software
MSFT
SAAS
NUAN
INTU
AMSWA

Ag Chemicals
TNH
MON
AVD

After studying this list, I want you to find out why these stocks are hitting new highs. Is there a theme here? I see it. Let’s face it, the super-trend to come, if it’s coming at all, will be found by studying this list. Once you get a grasp on why these stocks and sectors are being bought, get yourself a powerful screener, like the one found inside of The PPT, and compare then contrast the stocks on this list with others in the same industry, with the hopes of finding under the radar winners.

Most of you bird brained jelly mixers will opt to drink yourselves into a coma tonight. For the industrious men and women out there: get to work!

That’s was not a rally, but a warning shot across your filthy keyboards. I am happy to be 45% cash and although I added to my FSLR position today, I pride myself for saying no to the giant bottle of soda that is this market. Subsequently, my TZA position closed in the green. My MTW position performed admirably, despite broad market weakness.

On the other hand, both FSLR and DECK sold off, while DMND took the day off. The result was a +0.1% day and I have zero regrets.

We can only continue this charade for so long. The market Gods grow weary of this tape (they tell me this when I drive in my space capsule). But certain industries still look robust, like the refiners. Crack spreads are widening again and if Iran gets shut down they will soar. Why? Because the divergence between Brent and WTI will widen again, lending to the idea that companies like WNR, DK and CVI have it going on, indeud.

I doubled down on FSLR.

Many years ago, I made a conscious decision to eat healthy. Now eating healthy doesn’t mean venturing off to MCD’s just once per week, as opposed to five. It means adhering to a certain discipline, being aware of everything that enters your fat face. I don’t drink soda, ever. I rarely drink anything but water and I am rather serious about an organic food only diet. Do yourself a favor and research the benefits and learn why eating corn fed beef is an abomination and how pesticides and sugar are poisonous.

For me, the result was a 35 pound weight loss and increased vitality.

Having said all that, the market is on a sugar high now. It’s like one fucking giant bottle of soda that people keep drinking, passing it around, getting fat and stupid off of it.

However, there are some odd things happening in the market. Look at the divergence between natural gas and oil. Understand that low natty is a big win for chemicals and other industries that use it. I feel under-invested today at 50% cash. But I will make money and that is the point, is it not? Being disciplined with a trading strategy and eating healthy share many attributes. namely doing things that go against our inner animal. Let’s face it, we all would love to drink beer, eat steaks and buy tech stocks on margin all day long. But it’s not always good for us.

My rules dictate it’s time to take my foot off the gas and slow things down. I don’t give a shit about faux Chinese numbers or asinine European bailouts. The bottom line is, I am up 7% for the year and we are still in January. It would be piggish of me to ignore the lessons of yesterday for the unknown future that lies ahead.

The EFSF got downgraded today, putting them in the downgrade club–crowded with almost every single western nation save Germany. Having said that, does it even matter? If the new gold standard for everyone is AA+, what purpose does AAA serve? It seems to me that after the US was downgraded to AA+, the new standard that everyone else has been measured by is AA+. Anyone stuck with a rather unfortunate AAA are simply targets for a soon to be determined credit downgrade. Yes?

The purpose of the EFSF is to issue bonds to bail out everyone. Question: will central banks shy away from committing heinous acts of irresponsibility because S&P credit analysts finally awoken from their decade long slumber? I think not.

The ratings agencies are more irrelevant now than ever before. Their downgrades only sting when they loom. However, when they are completed, all parties seem to discard them as something stupid or worse, corrupt.

Jean Sibelis, from Finland, was commissiond by his government to write this symphony for his 50th birthday (a national holiday in Finland). It is one of my favorite pieces.

This is my favorite movement, Sibelius, Symphony no. 5 in E flat major–composed in 1915.

Here is another version, conducted by Maestro Herbert Von Karajan, who led the Berlin Philharmonic for 35 years and is the top selling classical musician of all time–having sold upwards of 200 million records.

I cut off my WNR and sold out of FOSL to lock in winship, booking anywhere between 10-25% gains on said holdings. The Gods asked for sacrifices yesterday, through outrageous DMND’s, and I have answered with a volley enveloped in fire.

My cash position is 50% and my TZA position is still 8% in the hole. Making money on this round of purchases is not the point. It’s the discipline that makes me a winner. You will see, to your astonishment, The PPT TNA/TZA buy/sell program will reign supreme, at the end of the day.

I am still long GSVC, DECK, MTW, FSLR, DMND and a little GMXR. You know I should be selling DECK, as it is vulnerable in a weak tape. However, I am emphatic in my belief that they will blow out earnings this quarter.

Everything else is blissful, sitting on top of the world, up 6% for the year and not giving a shit about being wrong.

Have a good weekend.