Credit Event Rally Time!

This market is full of oxymorons. Shall we have another?

This week there is a strong likelihood that Greece will trigger a “credit event” because they will need 66-75% of the private sector to participate in the debt swap. In the event they are unable to rob them in broad daylight, they will do so in the dark, effectively triggering CDS. Also, let’s not forget the record level of cash being parked with the ECB. If things were so “awesome and amazing” in Europe, that would not be the case.

Separately, Morgan Stanley is predicting 1% US GDP growth in Q1. What the fuck are they smoking? Don’t they see C, GM, F and GS are on fucking fire? At any rate, at 1% GDP growth, there is zero justification for a stock market rally. There will come a time when you are forced to deal with reality. I believe we are approaching such a crossroad soon.

If you come to grips with the fact that the only reason why we are up is due to “free money” out of Europe, US and China, you will understand the underlying dangers of being too long at the wrong time. Whenever the stimulus stops, so will the music–just like a terminal patient on life support.

As an aside, China took down their growth forecast to 7.5%. But that’s a fucking bullshit number anyway. Really, the local Chinese debt burden is ballooning to epic proportions, now estimated at $2.2 trillion. In other words, the Chinese are trying to “fake it before they make it.” Instead of building an economy that will last the test of time, those stupid fuckers are creating a giant bubble that will burst in their faces, just like the old Hubba Bubba commercials.

All that being said, we’ve been going higher and all of the shit I am eluding too might be misconstrued as sour grapes. Please forgive my volubility on the matter of stocks and how it disassociates from the facts. “The Fly” is merely trying to point out potential dangers, innocently, in the most unarmed way humanly possible.

Disclosure: Still long “The TZA Steed” and VXX TITS.

Anyone who is in this market knows the pitfalls of the current banana run. In recent weeks, many stocks have been taken to the proverbial woodshed and beaten like bag pigs (I presume ill-humored pigs are beaten by their owners down in the deep south).

Using The PPT to screen for stocks down 10% or more over the past month, 619 names listed. Let me explain that to you in layman’s terms: about 17% of the stocks listed inside The PPT database have undergone a 10%+ correction over the past month. Either this is the buying opportunity that I’ve been waiting for, or the hammer of certain death, destruction and homosexuality is about to befall those who are long equities.

What do you think?

Nah, just kidding. No one gives a shit about what you think.

Fun times at Fly High are over. I will no longer grant safe quarter to those of you who vex or annoy me, not even in the slightest form or fashion.

Effective immediately, I intend to kill a great many of you, through unorthodox means. I’ve sent out my assassins to every corner of the world, waiting for my command to commence “operation poisonous heart attack dart.” It’s a very simple strategy that will enable me to get rid of irritants, whilst making the ‘tragedy’ look entirely ‘natural’.

Medical genius!

Also, we’ve gone through great lengths to create profiles for many of you, pointing to a troubled history of heart failure, so don’t try to investigate your deaths after the fact. Rather, tell your families to fuck off now, in advance of your demise, on our behest.

This should all go along, swimmingly, without delay.

So you know, we’ve lost a great commenter and short seller extraordinaire today, who went by the name of Alf. Apparently Alf had a long, tedious, history of terminal heart disease. Upon walking home from his Saturday afternoon ballet rehearsals, poor Alf dropped dead of an apparent “heart attack”, whilst gobbling down an extra yummy buttercream cupcake.

He will be missed.

Another fine day at the office for Le Fly, with all of my positions, save CPST, going higher. As you know, I’ve been riding the TZA steed without regard for personal safety. Also, my VXX tits inflated today. All in all, I was pleased with today’s session.

Howfuckingever, shares of HSFT shot the fuck higher. I’ve been eyeballing that cocksucker and wanted to get in. Also, shares of BID rose today, based upon the blue blood in the granite swimming pool.

But I have to be content with what I have on the long side. Both TIF and ALJ are going up, with the sharp winds of seasonality behind the sails of both.

Aside from all of that, you’re all degenerates, in one form or another–desperate to catch a 25% spiker. I’ve opted to avoid the heavy burdens of risk in 2012, in exchange for sure things. Despite the unending rally, many stocks have been underperforming. You know what I speak is true; that’s why you are nodding your head in agreement now. The coal sector is dead, thanks to cheap natural gas and 0bama’s EPA. A wide variety of tech stocks have been pummeled, because they suck. This is a stock pickers market and I intend to out-pick you for the duration of the calendar year.

Finally, I was knocked out of the March Madness contest this week, by none other Marc David. As you can see by my defeat, I won even though I lost. If I had to lose to someone, why not to the biggest and most loyal supporter of iBC, save ZOMBIE? Indeud.

I hereby bless the spirit of Marc David and look forward to seeing him cut the heads off the rest of you cocksuckers in the near term.

I added to my ALJ position.

Seasonal trends tend to repeat themselves because of human nature. The fact of the matter is, human beings tend to spend money in the month of March. The weather gets warmer and with that comes optimism. It should not come as a surprise to you to learn that consumer sensitive stocks do exceedingly well in March.

How well?

Have a look at the composite seasonality of both Department Stores and Apparel Stores.

Apparel

Department Stores

In layman’s terms, during the month of March, on average, retail stocks trade higher 70% of the time. That is a staggering number, just about as good as it gets for a whole industry during a particular month.

Aside from Department Stores and Apparel Stores, the following industries tend to do well in March.

Business Services
Independent Oil and Gas
Home Furnishing
Beverages
Cement
Confectioners
Consumer Services
Discount Stores
Textile Apparel
Specialty Retail
Restaurants
Refiners
Oil and Gas Equipment

All of this data was mined using The PPT‘s seasonality engines. We offer an incredible suite of products, many of which go unexplored by users.

Getting down to specific stocks, there are standouts. For example, QCOM has been up 18 of 20 years in March for an average return of 11.7%.

We even offer detailed percentage gain/loss data per stock. Here is QCOM’s.

Without revealing too much to the unwashed, top hatless, public, here are some standouts for the month of March.

FL
TIF
MAS
TJX
EOG
VLY
SMRT
WSM
SBUX
MFB
CMG
WNR
TZOO
CTRN
KKD
LORL

Okay, that’s enough free shit for you cheap motherfuckers. Get out of here you fucking beggars. I’ve got shit to do today, people to see, coin to manufacture. I’m taking this March seasonality list very seriously because I have a desire to position into these sectors anyway. Therefore, I might as well use history as my guide.

If I end up dead from “natural causes” for posting this video, Obama did it.

In case you are unfamiliar with Breitbart, this is what he was all about.

Towards the end of trade, I bought 100,000 shares of ALJ, one of the cheaper refiners out there, beaten down almost into dust. For the day, I eked out gains through the sashaying of TIF.

My VXX tits deflated a bit; but I still like it more than any other stock. There is a wide array of shit looming, readying to drop anvils on all of you goat-fuckers.

On the long side, I am warming to the LED space, due to renewed Chinese interest. My sources tell me China will be giving an update on their LED plans before mid-year. On that news, shares of CREE, LEDS, VECO and AIXG should trade higher. RBCN is a different story, addled by competition, fucked inside of a fagbox.

KSWS spiked higher, likely due to Kenny “motherfucking” Powers. I am interested in that name too. After all, the marketing strategy is brilliant.

The fact of the matter is, whether Saudi pipelines are emitting black smoke or not, crack spreads are north of $31 and the WTI-Brent spread is now north of $16—huge tailwinds for mid-continent refiners like ALJ, DK, HFC and WNR.

Nevertheless, the market is having difficulty breaking through 13,000. I will be constructive with my buys, as we hit up against this wall.

Typically I don’t give a shit about death. It’s part of life and we all have to deal with it, sans me– due to the gift of immortality. And although I do not agree with many of the things that Breitbart stood for, I respected his independent thinking. Yes, he was an ideologue; but he was his own man. He dominated the conservative news circuit on the internet and was always very vocal and belligerent about his views. He’d defend them anytime, anywhere. There is something to admire about that.

I’m very cynical about politics and the process, just like religion. However, I do respect those who practice at both churches, if done with passion and without false motives. There are some people who genuinely feel it is their right to help “save” this country from moral and financial decay. Andrew was one of those guys.

He was on top of the world yesterday–young, rich and with purpose. Today, gone.

The ISDA ruled there was no Greek default. Therefore, the owners of Greek CDS should fuck themselves. My only question to the ISDA is this: if there was no Greek default, how come Greece had to default? After all, the fucking bonds are now trading less than 20 cents on the dollar. I know of bankrupt companies whose bonds were worth more. Indeud, I say this with tongue in cheek, for we all know what is going on here. The ECB is trying to avoid a “credit event” because they are the ones on the hook, since they have expanded their balance sheet by 40% in recent months, bailing out their banks.

Should CDS contracts be honored, payments to insurance owners would literally come out of the ECB treasure chest.

Since we have established that CDS contracts for governments and large banks are worthless, how does a bond buyer insure against future losses?

ANSWER: he doesn’t.

My guess, once the ECB quits playing with itself, via buying sovereign bonds, they will find a thin market for their wares. Why would I buy Italian 2 yr at 1.9% when I could buy some corporate shit and hedge it with CDS? If I buy CAT debt and CAT goes bankrupt, the government isn’t gonna give a shit. Hence, CDS contracts will be honored and I will look like the financial genius that I am.

Think about this: how glum and depressed is the guy who saw this whole Greek shit coming and tried to profit from his research through buying Greek CDS? Ha! That guy is fucked on a spindle.

Anyway, the futures are bouncing higher and auto sales are coming in much better than expected. Fucking Chrysler reported a 40% jump-WOW! We will likely sustain 1 million car sales for February, matching last month, putting us on pace for 14 million cars sold in 2012. That’s a big deal.

BID is trading down on soft earnings. I was waiting for a pullback. My hunch, let it come in another day or two, then start to accumulate. There is going to be some headline auctions this spring that should buoy the shares.

The big story for today and the near term future, however, is precious metals. Last night gold was up 1.5%. Now it’s barely up. Should the run on gold and silver continue, look for a blanket sell off in commodities.