The Car

I tend to obsess over things, micro-manager extraordinaire. Last night I lamented over my stupid fucking broken Macbook Pro, because “it’s brand new” and “I was so careful with it.” Bad things happen to good people all the time, total randomness, unpredictable ‘black swan’ events. I know a person who owns a fairly large natural gas business in New Mexico. He is my age, making millions per annum. Fifteen years ago he was living in his car, destitute and without coin. Then the natural gas boom came and he got ‘rich as fuck.’

From 2002-2007, he bought 10 homes, mostly for rental income. He took the rest of his savings and put it in stocks. He entrusted me with a very small amount of money, reserving the lionshare of his $3 million for his own caprices. He started to buy some penny stock, not because he had an edge, but because it was going down. I promised him he’d go ‘back to the car’ if he continued his reckless investment philosophy. We’d talk for hours. I’d chastise him, continuously, for his behavior. With 5 kids, you’d think he’d treat his money more carefully.

The natural gas boom ended, with the collapse of prices. His account fell 100%, losing it all in a penny stock scam. One stock, one bullet, and his investment career died.

The market can provide you with an incredible amount of wealth– and by extension happiness. But it’s gambling. Don’t think it isn’t–because it is. Control your inhibitions and never ‘go back to the car.’

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQqK_vUHrZI

Top pick: VHC

I swapped out of APKT for even more VHC, making it my largest position, not because I know the judge and the lawyers and the contents inside of their brief cases, but because I do not intend to sit through a fucking APKT earnings call and because my urinal shadows have declared VHC to be “highly fucking attractive at these levels.”

Think of VHC as a large boat, captained by “The Devil” himself, and all of you are pirates. On the horizon there is a small flotilla, filled with bears eating cheese filled tortillas, playing the guitar, drunk from their own stupidity. Your vessel is magnanimous, painted black, adorned with 15 gunpowder filled cannons and a pirate flag to match.

As you approach the little flotilla, filled with tortilla eating bears, the captain of your pirate ship yells out “get ready to board, gentlemen; take what you want.”

That’s exactly how I feel about VHC right now, readying to board the flotilla strewn with cheese filled tortillas.

Happy trading.

I added to my VHC positions and sold out of APKT.

I’m down less than 1%, mostly thanks to VHC defying the laws of gravity.

I’ll say it again, this is a buyable dip.

Breadth has improved from 12 to 15% since the open. Inside of The PPT, the percent of large caps rated “buy” is at the lowest point in months–at around 6%. Each time the algos have hated stocks this much, mean reversion kicked in and the market has responded with ‘Cocaine Gorilla Rallies’ shortly thereafter.

My top pick is VHC for a very specific reason: earnings don’t matter with VHC, only the lawsuit. Should the suit go wrong, the stock will be cut in half. But that’s the risk I am willing to take for the potential of a 100% run from here.

I have a lot of other stocks in the portfolio, but do not have passion for them into earnings. Frankly, I am afraid to hold anything, after seeing multiple catastrophes in numerous high beta stocks this season.

In short, this is a very benign and mild decline, considering the tone. I am looking for the market to firm up into the bell, leading to a sharp snap back rally tomorrow.

Women will be required to polish their husbands shoes on a nightly basis, with marked exception to Sunday–the day of the Lord.

On the day of the Lord, women will be required to polish Gods shoes, by cleaning the floors of their local church.

Stocks will be considered to be “evil” and trading will be banned, especially for women and people who visit casinos.

A husband’s birthday will be a valid excuse to stay home from work and let the kids skip school.

Television broadcasts will end at 6pm, nightly, to make room for the evening sermon. There will be no normal programming on Sunday, except for the usual sermon.

Donations to The Church of Mormon will be mandatory, taken from your paychecks on a weekly basis.

Women will automatically make 10% less than men, UNDER MORMON RULE.

Luxury items will be frowned upon, favoring the ‘simple life’ of farm clothes and wooden clogs instead.

Women will not be permitted into bars, unless accompanied by their husband. If they are not married, they will not be permitted into bars.

Excuse notes by a husband will be considered ‘legal tender’ in the great state of Utah.

Children will be required to sing ‘the great mormon melodies’ during holidays, thoroughly trained by their mothers 6 months in advance.

Curfew for women will be 6pm, unless they have an excuse note from their husband. If they are not married, they must be home by 6pm.

Feel free to add your own in the comments.

You are not permitted to discuss politics anymore. Instead, we all get to “enjoy” the carnage of a classical ‘October Surprise’, whereby stocks get destroyed because they can. We’re set to drop by 150 this morning, following the fucked up pinless hand grenade action in Europe. Without a doubt, I stand to lose a spectacular amount of money this morning.

Also without doubt, this is a buyable dip. The market is simply following seasonal patterns. This market drought ends with the Turkey Gods splashing apple cider in the faces of the bears. If you have to stem the tide by selling, so be it. But have faith in knowing “The Turkey Gods” are coming and their powers are very real.

No one bets against stocks going into Turkey day. That’s madness.

Dips can be bought in basic resources. However, I am very worried about riding tech/retail into earnings season. As a matter of fact, just avoid earnings all together. It’s OTB guy gambling. Fuck that.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCAV6tonYh0

Obama CRUSHED Romney with one line zingers and insults. He was like an attack pit-bull, biting on another dog because he just finished eating dog food laden with gunpowder.

Romney was affable and soft, agreeing with Obama on many controversial points, like Syria.

But this debate wasn’t about making the other guy look like a jackass. It was about convincing the morons who are still undecided to vote for them.

In short, Obama was snarky and not very likable, speaking down to Romney in a very disrespectful tone. Romney played it safe and likely convinced MOAR people to vote for him, as a result.

The word has been spoken. Do not bother debating its merits.

Romney to win in a landslide. You will see why in about 1 hour.

I will be “live tweeting” the grande finale.

Follow me @The_Real_Fly

note: “The Fly” is in possession of a plutonium powered time machine and therefore cannot be debated because he’s been to the future. Incidentally, it has lower stock prices in it too.

Do you know what it takes to make money in this market, pal?

It takes religious faith to make money in this market–not balls. Providing you can avoid the occasional OSG in exchange for SVU, the market will reward you. That being said, I barely made any money today, advancing by just 0.25%. But, I am encouraged, based upon the sublime laws of mathematics, as so eloquently stated in today’s PPT summary. For the uninitiated: I give a full daily summary of the day’s events, as seen through the eyes of my mechanical brain aka The PPT.

Bottom line: the market didn’t collapse following Friday’s debacle. The bears need to respond quickly, else they will lose the initiative and the momentum will tumble in favour of the bulls, yet again–as prophesied by the blunt smoking pimp, Benjamin Bernanke.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHrmr0yeSrc

I’m ignoring today’s action in favor of several dozen sandwiches. I’d like to relay that message to all of you.

As you sit there panicked, almost haunted, by the stock exchange, “The Fly” will be devouring sandwiches whole, without any bites. Sure, there are lots of cross-currents in the short term. Take OSG as an example. Two weeks ago I was “on the boat”. Now I’m not and it’s sinking. Coincidence?

I think not.

We all have enemies, some obvious, other opaque. I dare say we share a common enemy: uncertainty.

Uncertain about our life-spans, longevity of relationships (business and personal), the way we deport ourselves and how said deportment is perceived by others, etc. In my estimation, all forms of uncertainty are legitimate reasons to lament, worrying about the prospects of our respective futures. Howsoever, when it comes to stocks, on a broader outlook, I think it’s fair to say they will go higher, no matter what, over the longer term. It’s all we have to look forward to, as a nation and once great society. It’s the great facade, a picture painted perfect on a rotting interior.