2015’s Biggest Winners (rolls eyes)

The median return for gold stocks in 2015 is +16.8%. Many are up more than 30%, very few are down. Silver stocks, as you would imagine, are up similarly. After that, marijuana stocks are higher by 11% and then, finally, REITs are up around 8%. Nothing else is up 5%, as a sector, not even biotechs.

These are degenerate, homeless man, winners.

In short, if you’ve managed to make coin this year, you’re either a bear shitting gold bug or chaser for yield, also a whore of another varietal. None of the risk sectors are working; and if you’re into making money off momo stocks, you’re gonna have to be quick. Bounces are being sold within a day or two and bonds are relentlessly trading higher.

Much of this is due to currencies. I’d like to chalk up the melt up in TLT to dollar strength, but that doesn’t explain it all. If that was the case, european bonds would’ve been trading down with their currency. That simply isn’t the case. Can it be oil producing nations finding safety in western bonds? Perhaps. I can’t imagine many Russian oligarchs wanting to keep their money in rubles these days.

Whatever the reason is, the perception is that something is wrong and that is hurting sentiment.

Either TLT drops $15 from current prices or the Dow falls 1,500 points. This deflationary scare cannot continue for too much longer, without it finally grabbing hold of equities, which is the proverbial ‘last man standing.’

Also, heading into the big ECB meeting this week, I am on edge due to expectations versus potential outcome. The europeans have a way to fuck things up and right now everyone is relying upon them to do something bold.

The last time europe did something bold is when Germany invaded Poland.

EXODUS

The corrective forces of the market have been defeated. Rejoice as we enter an era of unparalleled hedonism, through industrious productivity and innovation. All of the problems of yesterday are seemingly in the past (duh). As you can see by today’s tape, our fears, our human emotions, tricked us again.

At this very moment in time, Bluestar is receiving penance and forgiveness for his great many atrocities. His unbridled savagery will be washed away, with the oils of our savior and the blood of christ.

Amen.

Have a good weekend and try to avoid telling lies, stealing and definitely murdering your neighbors.

I’ve had ETR for a while and felt like booking the trade. With AMGN almost 10% down from highs, yielding 2%, I bought a small position.

Am I supposed to get excited that our execution has been stayed? The gallows are still there, freshly built, awaiting our necks. European markets have soared over the past two days. Ours? Ours are for the dogs.

More than 340 stocks traded down more than 10% this week, an ordinary correction in a land of milk and honey. After all, we have the best banks, Fed, tech and medicine man companies. We also have a benevolent oligarchy who bestow mercy upon us in the form of short prison sentences for IRS violations.

I see oil is trading up again, luring managers of money back into its fuck up web. Having positions in a variety of oil stocks, I am not complaining–per se.

It’s past 2 o’clock in the afternoon and I haven’t bothered to blog yet. I’ve been awake since 6am, sort of in a trance like catatonic state. I’ve been reading a book, about the life and times of Jay Gould, robber baron extraordinaire.

How did olde Jay amass his $86 million back in the 19th century? Very simple. He merely would sell short the company he was in charge of, purposely fuck up their contracts, cover his short, and then get long after fixing the contracts. He also once forced UNP, the company he was CEO of, to buy the Kansas City railroad, in which he owned the majority of the shares, at an extreme premium. He netted $40 million from that deal.

He also treated the Erie railroad as his personal piggy bank, legally.

Ah, the good old days.

Needless to say, I am not impressed by today’s rally and will not be buying anything. There is too much muck, implicit corruption, and a strangely docile investment public to believe anything seen on my screen.

#1: The PPT is now oversold on all metrics, including TNA and TQQQ. The recent stats point to an immediate bounce (tomorrow) and then possible resumption of the downtrend. This is how the signs has been met over the past 11 occasions.

#2: Remember when I warned you the other day about biotech stocks being filled with asshole momo traders? Well, by the looks of NDRM, JUNO, KITE and many others, they were fucking wiped off the map today. When I posted about biotechs we were at the upper end of the Hybrid score model. Now we are at the bottom part of the range, suggestive of a bounce coming soon.

If we are to accept these signals as valid, and they have served us well in the past, the trade will be to buy biotech tomorrow and then sell it on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Bear in mind, we can still make money trading for the upside in a brutal bear market. Some of my best upside trades happened in 2008 and 2009.

Breathe in everything and digest what you’ve just experienced. This is sheer, gypsy, fuckery at its finest. The small moving parts are no longer important. There are big things happening, accompanied by giant moves that affect everything.

The expectations have never been higher for the ECB. We are in the grips of harsh and severe deflation, even BBY mentioned it in their conference call. I’ve been saying this for almost a year, while the clam fuckers on CNBC were jaw-boning about rate hikes. There will never be rate hikes and QE IV is assured. The only thing we need to do before getting QE is go lower. Very simply, the political clout isn’t there within a buckshot of new highs. We need to dive lower, mind you, to the tune of 15%.

After the Dow drops 2,000 points from current levels, we will get more QE.

In the meantime, we’re gonna bounce soon, as is always the case with runaway markets. In this instance we are running away to the downside: unsustainable. But do you have confidence that Draghi and his european comrades will succeed in saving equity markets? Because if he disappoints, the market is going to swan dive lower.

With banks getting crushed and oil already in the shit-box, there’s too much pain out there. A liquidation is in order and everything will compress because of it.

All of my gains for the year have been wiped out and I hate life again. The cycle continues.

European markets traded up 2.2% and our NASDAQ is off more than 40. All of the leaders are getting killed and quite frankly anything that I write now is utterly meaningless. Sure, trade the edges and be sure to limit losses. However, these moves are entirely unpredictable. Just this morning it appeared oil was reversing to the upside, until it wasn’t.

All of this pain and the NASDAQ is barely down for the month.

Just like 2014, gold stocks are paving the way to prosperity, early going. As you know, later on in the year gold stocks reversed and died.

Hey cheer up, the Dow is down 10 of 12 days and the SPY is still above 2,000. We’re off to a dashing start to 2015!

Saudi Arabia has defeated us, once again (extra 9/11). WTI is now trading at a premium to Brent crude. When I was long refiners, back in 2011-2012, the main driver was the $15-25 spread between WTI and Brent. As of this moment, WTI is trading  at $48.90 and Brent is $48.75.

Should this trend continue, it spells extreme and immediate doom for US refiners. Stocks like WNR, HFC, ALJ, DK and MPC are extremely risky here, albeit down significantly from the highs.

The market has opened and it ran higher by 90 points, only to melt down like a snowman in July–currently vacillating near the unchanged mark. Earnings out from BAC and C were abysmal, as well as BBY.

Oil and gas stocks are the silver lining of this tape right now, which is an affirmation of why you should diversify into different sectors, even when they’re underperforming.

The Dow is now down 41. Fuck my life.

So I went to sleep around 4:10am to Dow futures up 150. I woke up at 6:10am to them down more than 110. The news is, as you already know, the Swiss bank removed the “Swiss ceiling” and “Euro floor”, paving the way for an incredible one day +15%+ move in CHF vs Euro. As a result of this, the Swiss market is down more than 12%, the largest decline since 1989.

Everyone wants in on the Swiss Franc and people are selling euros every which way but loose. This is NOT a fucking reason to sell stocks. You’d have to possess the thinking capacity of a horse to view this as a negative for stocks. Who gives a shit, really? The Swiss bank couldn’t keep up the charade any longer, with their artificial pegging to the euro.

Why?

Because the ECB is going to announce and begin massive QE next week. If they permitted this peg to stand, they’d need to bag hold euros on an epic scale. So, they figured now was the time to end the stupidity and the market is responding in kind.

I view this market response with the same demeanor as a serial killer would view his next target. I have nothing but unadulterated disdain for all parties involved. I want them to perish in fires, crushed under elevators, dropped down manholes. This dip will be bought, or NOT! It’s not like the +150 market open was gonna stick anyway, right?

We are living in very interesting times. America shall thrive off this news and punch our european counterparts in the fucking face, many times over.