Wrapping Up the Quarter

The past 3 months has been a volatile one, but ultimately bullish. The NASDAQ gained a little more than 1%, $IWM +8.5%, and the $SPY ~4.5%. The rationale for the chasm between the NASDAQ and Russell lies in the bullish case for domestic companies over global, due to perceived lower interest rates and possible Trump administration.

The winners

All of the above industries are lower interest rate plays. The next leg of this rally should intertwine, but not limited to, consumer facing companies.

I closed just about at RECOURD HIGHS, up a little more than 16% for the year. My intent is to extend those gains in a most magnanimous manner during the next 3 months, which are traditionally very good for traders. Although markets are up around 18% for 2024, it has not been easy and no market is ever easy, with marked exception to 2021. As traders and investors, we constantly fear pullbacks or missing out on rallies and rarely feel at ease, because something is always happening. I do feel most at ease now than all year, based on a fundamental conviction that stocks will be going higher due to the Fed easing. I’ve said this before and I’ll repeat it now: they’re likely to cut much more than you think in order to get ahead of the looming debt wall, which stands above $7.2T, from now until 2028. To avoid another financial crisis and meltdown, those bastards will need to reduce the cost to borrow money at a time when the economy is very good. THIS HAS NEVER BEEN TRIED BEFORE and don’t be fooled into believing they’re doing it because they know something we don’t. They don’t know a damned thing and are forced to cut rates to keep this rigged game going.