I hate to sound conspiratorial (not really) but today’s massive revisions lower provide the excuse the Fed needs to massively cut rates ahead of an election, thereby solidifying markets for the incumbent.
We can slice and dice this 100 different ways. And the market gapped down on these revisions. I think that was a knee jerk mistake. All this proves is the Fed has the go ahead to INCREASE the velocity of money and as a result markets “should” go higher, based upon recent history.
I say this with confidence judging by the US 10yr at 3.77% and the recent comments out of the Fed, suggesting that a Sept cut was all but a foregone conclusion.
Moreover, if job losses were really a big deal we’d see that reflected in credit delinquency data and/or consumer confidence numbers and certainly at places like $TGT, who just reported great numbers, same with $TJX.
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It goes without saying that inflation will be bouyed up, instead of down, for a whole multi-decade cycle. Doesn’t matter who sits in the Oval Office. Avoiding slow strangulation involves a proper financial or geopolitical fuck-up to play out. I guess I would be better off with the later.