CONSTANZA TRADE THE CPI; SHADOWS OF 2000?

Here is data of all NASDAQ performances on CPI day and the next day. Notice a trend?

1/12/24 +0.05%, flat
2/13/24 down 1.52%, +1.1%
3/12/24 +1.4%, down 0.7%
4/10/24 down 0.92%, +1.64%
5/10/24 +0.23%, +0.23%
6/12/24 +1.31%, +0.45%
7/11/24 down 2%, ?

Of the 7 reports, this is the 3rd down day. On the previous two down days, markets jumped higher by 1.1% and 1.6%. Although the data set is tiny, I am pretty sure the same sort of data exists in 2023, since the CPI has been moderating for almost a year. The gist of this is, we are inexorably in a bull tape. There hasn’t been any motivating factors to contribute towards a prolonged decline in stocks. These things DO NOT happen out of nowhere.

For example, during the dot com collapse of 2000, which many people compare this tape to with overvalued AI chip stocks replacing the overvalued internet stocks of that era, we had actual news events that jarred markets.

On Feb 15th, 2000: Microstrategy issued and earnings warning and restated for the previous two years, sending the stock lower by 61% for the day. $MSTR

On Feb 18th, 2000: Pets dot com issued an earnings warning, sending the stock down 18%

Fucking Etoys warned on 4/14, sending the stock lower by 81%.

Aside from the small companies warnings, we had a March warning out of the $NVDA of that era $CSCO, more warnings out of Lucent, Yahoo, Amazon, Dell, Nortel, and Qualcomm, which was an absolute beast of the stock back then.

My point is, and this is directed to all of you fuckheads who keep calling for a crash: we will not get a deleterious decline without significant warnings. We haven’t seen any yet. People often ask me how I was able to successfully navigate all previous bear markets and my answer then is the same now: they are pretty god damned easy to identify. They’re usually coupled with terrible news that gets worse by the day and it’s akin to shooting fish in the barrel. If and when we ever enter a bear market again, you’ll know it’s coming and won’t need to be told, lest you’re fucking retarded.