Remember How Bad 2022 Sucked

Consider the following scenario to appreciate how bad 2022 was.

In 2019 the markets ran higher, as the Trump economy really churned out gains. The Nasdaq jumped by 38% that year. And then COVID hit in 2020 and it appeared all was lost. We endured perhaps the worst crash since the financial crisis of 2008 and stacked up record single day losses for the Dow.

At the lows in March of 2020, the NASDAQ was down by 30%. And then we turned around due to record stimulus, causing a frantic panic to the upside causing the NASDAQ to close +47% for the year, or +88% from the lows. I had gains in excess of 300% in 2020.

Then we continued higher again in 2021, rising another 26%. I produced returns of +218%.

And then the Russian war hit, coinciding with runaway inflation and we collapsed by 32%. The psychological damage of drawing down 32% just two years from the calamitous 2020 COVID crash ruined many people. I know of several people who lost more than half of their liquid net worths and really have never recovered since then. If you’re wondering, I netted +61% in 2022.

2023 was supposed to be a continuation of 2022 but we all of a sudden surged, as the Russian war proved to be benign for us and inflation abated. Led by $NVDA, we closed +54% in 2023. I netted +55% last year.

And here we are today, +21% for the year, comfy and just waiting for MOAR. We have gone though the worst and feel entitled to more returns. After all, we can’t crash again. We have crashed too often and deserve better. But in the event that we did start to trade lower, I’d like to remind you that memories are still very strong and the time wasn’t too long ago when people lost everything in speculating, which is why the market is extra volatile during periods of uncertainty.

This isn’t a warning of doom to come, but just a reminder that we are enjoying the best of times, which is atypical for markets as they usually like to meander higher and then lower before ultimately setting new highs.