Struggle Session

You must take me for an idiot — one minute fully long and the next as bearish as the prospects for the Ukrainian army. I am almost always conflicted and my trading is chaotic — but the results speak for themselves: +14x since 2021. Even still, I could not manage this tape and closed down 49bps, now cemented into losses for April of -1.25%.

A somber mood has cast itself over the market, sort of like how one might imagine the funeral of Joe Biden. It’d be a shame if anything should happen to him, just like it’d be a shame if this market tumbled over and broke its fucking jaw.

I have extremely strong sentiments about the market and all of them bad. In the brief periods where I am ebullient, something is wrong with me. Perhaps I ate something delicious and it brightened my mood — or maybe I saw something on X that made me laugh for a few seconds and gave me a feeling of completion. But those moods shift quickly and I am fast reminded of the terminal illness wreaking havoc on America, by the custodians of those who rule over us. I know them to be weak and emotional, corrupt and also incompetent — spiteful. They aren’t all knowing and they aren’t planning things ahead. These are morons who happen to wield power and once it is taken away from them — we will preside in mobs akin to the Jacobins in France a long time ago.

I finished with an 18% weighted $TZA position, 12% $TLT, the rest long — mostly defensive names. I had to decide which way I wanted to go: hold high beta stocks into and thru the fires in the hopes of a bounce or remain protected, potentially forgoing a morning spike. Last year I missed out on most large rallies, but still finished the year +55%.

I am ok with missing out on a rally in order to make sure I don’t bleed out anymore. My primary goal is capital appreciation, but only under the conditions that are compatible with my comfort level and trading acumen. I do not like stepping out of my wheelhouse, which is why I am, as of now, leaning short — hoping for the very worst in the after hours session — dark times ahead and very bright fires.