The Fly Wins Again
People often ask “Fly, how do you manage to win so readily?”
The straightforward response is rooted in genetic code. Generously, I entertain people clamoring for a glimmer of hope, those wanting to extricate themselves from the din of mediocrity.
I tell them “it all started when I was a boy, playing in the rubble of Brooklyn with dreams of becoming a great success. I took to the stock market early, right about the time markets crashed in 1987. Since then I worked tirelessly at my craft, much like a scientist in a lab — concocting tonics and potions using flasks and beakers and burettes. I’ve failed more often than most and out of that crucible have established a rich patrician expectation of excellence for those who know me well. I am rarely wrong for periods of time in excess of 2 or 3 months and haven’t lost money in the market since 2014. If you want to achieve outsized results, you can either spend the next 10,000 hours in the stock laboratory like I did, or simply attach yourself to me — much like a barnacle does to a great white shark.”
In late 2021, after launching my data analytics software called Stocklabs — I created a portfolio for members to track. That account was seeded with just $100k and is now valued at $1.1m, all through hard work, grit, and an exceptional talent for profit.
I tell you this, not to sell memberships or convince you that I am much better than you — but to inform you, rather emphatically, to fuck off in the comments section with quibbles about things you feel on a daily basis. The Fly isn’t interested in your opinions, just your attention.
For the session, I closed +60bps, carefully allocated with just the right amount of shorts and longs, methodically calibrated to produce a portfolio beta that will lead to success on Monday. We understand the risks in the tape: soaring oil, panic into gold, flight from risk, spike in volatility — massive increase in put volume as the permanent bull class of investor become initiated in the age longed tradition of getting beaten senseless during the month of October.
Nevertheless, and it’s important you remember this, nothing is fixed and the best trades are often born in the fires of discord and acrimony.
Be prepared for a flush lower and subsequent rally soon.
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Sure feels like the R2K is weighing heavily on the market right now. RUT is in a downtrend and looks like it wants to test support again ~1650. When it gets there we are going to get a bounce, or a battle. If that line doesn’t hold (during Oct/Nov when we normally see bulls return), that will not bode well for the broader market. If it gets to 1650, that will be the 3rd time RUT is testing that level since June 2022, and we all know the more times it is tested, the more likely it is to break through. Will bulls step up again? Time will tell. Bearish for now.