I am deeply afflicted by allergies and do not have the focus to write a good blog. My condensed thoughts are as follows:
Market direction is bullish — but that can change if the Fed says hawkish things tomorrow.
Market can weaken if rates go up
Markets will prefer NO RATE hikes and confirmed pause
Whether this is good for the average Joe is immaterial. Since when does the market care about the average Joe? We have strong homebuilders, tech, and cheap energy. By the looks of it, barring a bank disaster, we have all of the possibilities of seeing a “soft landing.”
Naturally I do not want to see it and would prefer to see it burn. But as of now, we are bullish.
+204bps for the session, closed with hedges just in case.
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Uh oh, he’s now “we”.
The labor market is your concern… But soon well and don’t sleep on commercial real estate
The labor market has yet to turn… what soon will. And don’t sleep on commercial real estate. Not to mention all of these companies still have to report the quarter in April.
The old tape vs fed situation. Cheap energy has peaked. Homebuilders are strong until they are not. Soy Valley doesn’t deserve a soft, limp wristed landing. They have been far too gay for far too long. A shorter recession, sooner would be better than the alternative. For all I know, the fed goes full MMT and starts handing out $5m reparations cheques to 12th generation slaves. Should be some good headlines coming up either way.
The expectation is more important than the long term effect of the tiny rate increases. Anything less than 0.25% will be seen as weak and is a big concern. Let the squeeze on the treasury get a little more noticeable to the Chief, they need to be reined in, better late than never.